Still The Worst President Ever

Ten years ago, George W. Bush would launch the invasion of Iraq, his most successful decision as the Fundamentalist in Chief (see "Universal Declaration of Independence from Fundamentalism").

How is he doing nowadays? W. just visited Seoul for a couple of hours, the time to bring good luck to some important real estate project (and a nice check to his fat wallet). Exactly the kind of peacekeepers and bubblemakers the peninsula needs right now: following more Beijing-condoned sanctions from the UNSC, Pyongyang all but declared a nuclear war to the US.

But who knows, Bush The Second may be palling around with Kim The Third: his unofficial envoy* Dong Moon JOO attended KIM Jong-il's funerals. Note that "Douglas" JOO reunited with the Washington Times ahead of the trip, but never left the Unification Church, the cult founded by the late MOON Sun-myung, a very good friend of daddy George H. W. Bush.

Ever the masochist, I decided to check Dubya's official website, or rather that of the George W. Bush Presidential Center. It had been a long time since my last visit.

No mention of the lucrative trip, of course, but I found this gem on the homepage: Dubya riding a bike with friends (including a US flag bearer - you always need one of those when you climb high mountains), with this caption: "The Bush Center's Most Memorable Moments of 2012".

I couldn't resist and added a speech ballon: "Uh... say again: Lance said WHAT?"



blogules 2013
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* according to The Daily Beast ("The Bush Administration’s Secret Link to North Korea" - 20120207)

North Korea Watch - Fall-Winter Trends 2012-2013

So Kim The Third shot yet another missile, but this time an object actually reached orbit.

At this important stage, the most crucial question is: "how to sport binoculars correctly?" After years of investigation, we can tell for sure that there are basically three categories:

1) Fashion Laggards - They don't have a clue

Obviously, neither Kim Jong-un nor George W. Bush served in the military. Embarrassing for warmongers.

2) Trendsetters - They just get it right

Code yellow? Code red? Obama can strike a pose, vogue. Strategic patience required.

3) K-pop fads - Weak lyrics, expressive body language

Is Park Geun-hye looking towards a military past? Is Ahn Cheol-soo silenced by a mouthpiece? Does Moon Jae-in prefer to see them up close? And what to make of Lee Myung-bak? A Freudian analysis might reveal insecurity at some level. But I'm sure they've got pills for that at the Blue House...

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!! and Twitter (@stephanemot, @blogules)

Tokyo's Un-Patriot Act

It's cherry blossom season in Japan, and saber rattling season in North Korea. So the Japanese Government decided to deploy Patriot Missiles in the (not yet) dead middle of Tokyo. Beautiful photo ops for media from across the world: dark, bulky death machines with delicate, georgeous sakura patches in the background.

Of course, the message is not to KIM Jong-un ("we'll destroy your missile if it flies over Tokyo"*), but to Japan's die hard bureaucrats: "please keep our government afloat".

First, I don't think Japanese leaders flunked all geography exams. Tokyo lies near the East Coast, and if North Koreans really plan to fire over Japan, they certainly won't do it Westwards (unless they're looking for a record breaking range / a potential sepukku). So if Japans really wants to prevent the missile from entering its air space, it must shoot long before it flies over Tokyo.

Second, this photo op is pure political porn for the Japanese extreme right: a caricature celebrating the rebirth of the Empire as a military superpower, and the very negation of Japan as a peaceful nation.

If there were countless other ways for a democracy to show its resolve against provocations from Pyeongyang, Yoshihiko Noda couldn't have signed a better pledge of allegiance to the worst enemies of Japan**: the ones from within.

blogules 2012 - previously published on Seoul Village ("Tokyo Sakura With Patriot Missiles (A Still Life)")
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* we recently mentioned the issue (see "NK and nukes: back to the (dolsot curling) stone age?"). KIM The Third wants to celebrate KIM The First's Centennial (KIM Il-sung was born on April 15th, 1912, but the pyrotechnic show could be planned for the 12th).

** see previous posts about this dangerous clique

Mobile Virtual Nuclear Operators

As expected, North Korea set the agenda ahead of the 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit (see focus on Seoul Village), this time by announcing for April a 'satellite' launch in the general direction of (Japan, thank Kim The Third for small mercies) the East China Sea.

Shooting Southwards doesn't make sense if you want to optimize a satellite launch and leverage the Earth's rotation, or in the case of North Korea, if you want to minimize the risks of casualties, but of course, that's not the aim of the game. And speaking of games: sweeping such a big fat "dolsot" curling stone all the way down to the hottest spot of contention between Korea and Japan*... my oh my, what a smart way of piggybacking international conflicts! You know, like a M-VNO entering a market without rolling out its own wireless network? These guys are inventing low cost dictatorship!

As is often the case, this latest crisis can be interpreted as the North Korean idea of a private joke between what passes for the executive power there and the local army (I know, these days, distinguishing one from the other is the equivalent of a hairsplitting contest in a Buddhist monastery, particularly now that Kim Elvis has met his maker - not Kim Il-sung, the other one, if he?she?it? exists). The message? In a nutshell: swallow this bitter pill, willya? In extenso: Okaaay guys, we just reached an agreement with the Evil Empire of the United Rogue States of America about our nuclear activities, but look: we just needed the suckers to send us some more bags of rice for you, because there's only you in our lives - "Army first", remember? And to make sure we want to follow your "Juche Line"**, we'll make both the "Sunshine Line" and the "Beijing Line" angry by shooting our rocket (oops, 'launching our satellite') toward the East China Sea – heck, while we're at it, we could even crash Taiwan's party as well...

... Where was I?

In Gwonnong-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul, of course. This very morning. At the top floor of GCS International Building, enjoying a glorious view on Changdeokgung (to my left), and Jongmyo (to my right). What better location for a seminar on North Korean nukes than the headquarters of a peace-oriented NGO (GCS), with a view on two key symbols of power in 'Joseon' times: in peace and harmony on one side, with the deceased on the other...***

With so much at stake, we have no choice but to try and be cautiously optimistic. And to keep humor alive. As Woody Allen put it during his intensive training of Kim Jong-un: "More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly".

Among today's panelists, John E. ENDICOTT (President, Woosong University) was the closest to experience a near-death 'Dr Strangelove' situation: this US Air Force veteran told us how, at the peak of the Cuban missile crisis, he ended up in a bunker with the top brass announcing that doom was likely to be ignited in 20 minutes...

In these really tricky times, I'm looking forward to Obama's visit of the DMZ, a potential 'jeoneun Hanguk saram imnida' / 'Mr Kim, tear down that wall' moment. Not a game changer, but a simple message: the time of reconciliation will eventually come, and the sooner the better, but it takes a dialog between both Korean halves, starting right now.

Last year, South Korea was reconsidering its own tough-cop approach, which proved rather counter-productive... except maybe from the Chinese point of view (see "Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"). Today, our panelists were more interested in how far the North was ready to engage in collaboration.

Hosted by GCS International, this Asia Institute Seminar focused on "Revisiting Nuclear Safety and Nuclear Security in North Korea"****. Hard to expect full collaboration and transparency from the most secretive country on the touchiest of materials, with a nuclear industry globally in damage control mode ever since the tsunami hit the fan in Fukushima, and days after South Korea unveiled an embarrassing cover-up following an incident in its own nuclear facilities (see "Twelve Minutes in Bballi-Bballiland"). And Sharon SQUASSONI, an expert in proliferation prevention who's visited the North several times, thinks that North Koreans themselves may be a bit too confident about how much they know about their own level of security.

You'd think the collaboration between Japan and its neighbors would have improved after last year's fiasco but it turns out that no, little or no progress has been made, and communication is already poor within an archipelago technically cut in two (electricity itself cannot circulate between West - 60 Hz - and East - 50 Hz!), and where private operators are not compelled to disclose key indicators as is the case in the US. If even close and friendly neighbors don't trust each other, no wonder the general public show doubt and defiance toward governments and the nuclear industry in general. Former Minister of the Environment KIM Myung-ja stressed the power of activists and the need for transparency.

After the Daichi mess, daily measurements of radioactivity from the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety brought much needed clarity to the debate and today, I welcomed the precious insights from their principal researcher: a technical expert with a sound approach of the human and cultural factors, Dr KIM Sok-chul underlined the differences between security and safety, or between the perception of events, their comprehension, and their prevention. He also revealed that the risk of human errors was maximal with knowledge based behaviors (compared to ruled based or skilled based systems). The same could be said about finance and neural scoring systems but enough scary stories for today.

Actually, this very gloomy period could prove rich in opportunities. Instead of the usual blame game and finger pointing at one rogue state, both Koreas, China, and Japan could humbly seat at the same table with a simple task: we're all in this together, as neighbors and fellow (at least) civil nuclear powers, and we are all facing criticisms for various reasons. Let's share about it, and find ways to be more efficient for the next emergency. To make it simpler, let's keep Russia and the US out of this*****. We won't judge each other, just make sure we handle things better than last year. Maybe, as trust and confidence grows, we'll share more information, but let's start this with modest yet vital objectives.

Since the audience was rather small, everybody could chime in, so I suggested this sort of a NEAR (North East Asia Response) task force. Earlier, Scott SNYDER, who deplored the US failure to prevent vertical proliferation, had proposed a more direct offer to North Korea: you want to launch a satellite? Great: we can do it for you, and safely. Of course they'll refuse (it's all about controlling the propeller, and not for satellites), but bringing the discussions to new planes may work better than - say - Sergey Labrov's basic reset button.

blogules 2012 - initially published on Seoul Village ("NK and nukes: back to the (dolsot curling) stone age?")
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* see "Ieodo: I smell a fish", or the controversial construction of a US Navy base at the Southwestern tip of Jeju-do. FYI: in Korea, 'dolsot' dishes are usually served in stone bowls heated directly on charcoal.

** if you're a bit lost with the different characters, see the previous episodes of our NK drama, including "Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"

*** Jongmyo and Changdeokgung are two beautiful, adjacent, UNESCO listed sites in central Seoul, built by the Joseon dynasty that founded the capital and ruled until the Japanese occupation. Note that neither North Koreans nor South Koreans call the country 'Korea': the former use "Joseon", the latter "Hanguk" (the nation of the Han people).

**** "Revisiting Nuclear Safety and Nuclear Security in North Korea" (Asia Institute Seminar) 2012/03/22:
- Introduction: CHO Cheol-je (Secretary General, GCS International)
- Opening remarks: John E. ENDICOTT (President, Woosong University)
- Panelists: Sharon SQUASSONI (Director, Proliferation Prevention Program, CSIS), Scott A. SNYDER (Senior Fellow for Korea Studies, Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy, Council on Foreign Relations), KIM Sok-chul (Principal Researcher, Head, Radiological Emergency and Security Preparedness Department, KINS - Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety), KIM Myung-ja (Chairwoman, Green 21 Forum / Former Minister of the Environment)
- Moderator: Emanuel PASTREICH (Director, The Asia Institute / Professor, Humanitas College, Kyung Hee University)
On the picture, left to right: Ms. KIM, Mr. KIM, Ms. SQUASSONI, Mr. SNYDER

***** anyway, as Dr KIM pointed out, 20 years from now, 50% of the world's nuclear reactors will be located in the region.

KIM Jong-il: four weddings and a funeral

So as expected, KIM Jong-il died. A bit early to secure the transition with KIM Jong-un, who might be tempted to show his skills to those who doubt he's got whatever that is North Korean leaders are supposed to have.

Physically, Junior already used plastic surgery to improve his Kimilsungist looks, let's hope he won't try to sport his dad's weirdo hairdo now.

Character-wise, Jong-un is rumored to be more ill-tempered than his brothers Jong-nam and Jong-chol, respectively a Disneyland and an Eric Clapton fan. But compared to the Late Dear Leader, he's more permeated with such capitalist perversions as burgers. And it starts showing, particularly in a country where the population is maintained in a constant state of starvation.

As far as leadership is concerned, Jong-un didn't quite pass the cut last year: the young lad has been credited with the latest attack on South Korean soil but doesn't seem much of an expert, judging by the way he uses binoculars...

So we'll follow KIM Jong-il's funerals (after four weddings, Hugh can grant him that**). And eminent Pyeongyangologists will watch closely: who will keep a seat when the music stops? Isn't CHANG Sung-taek a trifle too old for musical chairs? Will Beijing-friendly people get promoted in the army*?

In South Korea, a North Korean Spring or Winter would have consequences for the 2012 elections: more tensions could become a problem for AHN Cheol-soo (commander in chief beyond cyberwars?), and boost conservatives, but not necessarily PARK Geun-hye (would Koreans vote for a woman in times of crisis, and one used to operating only behind the scenes at that?).

By the way. This week-end, LEE Myung-bak visited Japan, and devoted the bulk of his talks with Yoshihiko Noda to the issue of Japanese military sexual slavery, following Wednesday's successful demonstration (see "One Thousand Wednesdays"). But if he's consistent, the President must also reactivate the Truth and Reconciliation Commission: every country must face its own past, particularly when it expects the same from its neighbors.


blogules 2011
(originally on Seoul Village: "KIM Jong-il passes. To KIM Jong-un. Presumably.")
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*... and the invisible 'hanschluss' continue? see "China-North Korea : the Great Hanschluss still the base case scenario", and previous posts about NK

** BTW 'Four weddings and a funeral' got released in 1994, the same year KIM Il-sung died.

---
20111230 update: corrected the title (which I changed while editing). Obviously, I never quite got used to Kim Jong-il. And KJI sounds more than ever like a name from the past.

Korea : too soft, but not soft enough

The major blackout Korea just experienced may be the consequence of a hacking of KEPCO earlier this year. It also could be due to a simple bug.

I can't help but believe in the first scenario, which would cast yet another unsettling cloud over the country and its security.

Over the past few months, Korea has proven embarrassing vulnerabilities in strategic areas :
- conventional warfare : military / organizational fiascos following North Korean attacks (ie Yeonpyeong)
- hackings / suspicious blackouts at the core of vital networks : financial (ie banks), media / internet, air traffic, and now electricity...

So regardless of who is responsible here (incompetence) or there (most fingers pointing at North Korea or China), a malicious organization could completely incapacitate Korea within minutes without using any conventional weapon. Even if the aim is not an invasion per se (nor even a diversion preceding an invasion of say North Korea), this would definitely damage the reputation of Korea as an economic powerhouse.

With its drive, infrastructures and talents, Korea should be ahead of Israel in national security. KISA (Korea Information Security Agency) significantly improved its visibility, but the national culture remains focused on hardware.

Samsung has eventually understood it needed to evolve and change business models, but it took series of obvious wake up calls (ie Google wolfing down Motorola). The government will probably follow suit. And if spurs are needed, the potential candidacy of Ahn Cheol-soo at the 2012 presidential elections might help : the founder of antivirus specialist AhnLab has some credentials in the area.


blogules 2011
(also on Seoul Village : "Korean blitz : all bases loaded")

Happy New Year 2012

Sorry but just like the previous years*, I cannot wish you a happy new year considering what's going to happen in 2011:

January 2011: volcano Eyjafjallajokull inrupts in Iceland. During this extremely rare phenomenon, billion of tons of CO2 are reabsorbed, causing unusually dry days and cold nights worldwide. In the process, the volcano also sucks about 5,167 planes from the sky.

February 2011 : the Cricket World Cup is sponsored by the Tea Party. Sarah Palin collapses during the seventh day stretch.

March 2011 : Kim Jong-il chokes on a gimchi pretzel. Two days later, his son Kim Jong-un is killed by the chief of intelligence services. The Red Army controls Pyeongyang, millions of North Koreans flock towards the South, thousands die on DMZ land mines. Three weeks later, the South announces that according to various trustable sources, Kim Jong-il might have caught a cold.

April 2011 : Prince William and Kate Middleton tie the knot around Prince Charles' neck. Camilla Parker Howls.

May 2011 : WikiLeaks exposes Julian Assange's STD lists. The 800 page book instantly becomes a New York Times bestseller.

June 2011 : inflation outpaces growth rates in China and property bubbles burst across Asia. US Dollar rallies by 2% against the Yuan : one RMB is now worth only 34,548,997 USD.

July 2011 : accompanied on the piano by Condi Rice, Vladimir Putin wins Russians Got Talent 2011 by singing a touching "I Dreamed a Stalin Dream".

August 2011 : harrassed by a Harry Potter fan working for the IRS, J.K. Rowling resuscitates the sorcerer for a second round of seven books. Daniel Radcliffe declines, but will replace Johnny Depp for the next two Jack Sparrows after the miserable failure of "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" at the box office : "I'm sick and tired of heptalogies - Sparrow movies fly by three, and I even have idle time to work for a Lucas franchise on even years. They said I had enough acting talent to play R2-D2"

September 2011 : the Rugby World Cup is sponsored by the Beer Party. Sarah Palin collapses after her sixty sixth six pack Joe.

October 2011 : in spite of an intense marketing campaign, Jonathan Franzen doesn't get the Nobel Prize for literature, which goes to George W. Bush for his works of fiction.

November 2011 : Greece is bailed out by a pool of betting companies based in Macau. France is refused the same favor. Hedge-a-bet Funds all the rage at the NYSE.

December 2011 : Obama can declare that as scheduled, there is not one US troop left in Iraq because Iraq ceased to exist on December the 5th, Iran claiming the bulk of the land.


blogules 2010

* see "Happy New Year 2011" (Dec 2009), "Happy New Year 2010" (Jan 2009)

We need to talk about Kim

Hours after the shelling of Yeonpyeong island by North Korea (probably part of Kim Jong-un's training as the next mad leader - KIM the Third obviously wanted to be part of the South's naval exercises), the promotional campaign for "Korea, a good neighbor", was still playing on CNN.

Seoul's official reaction to this new provocation is likely to be one notch down the nice cop scale used after the Cheonan Tragedy (earlier this very strange year, also ridden with skirmishes). Some wrists shall even be slapped. And of course, hectoliters of tears shall flow.

"A good neighbor" ? This side of the DMZ, most certainly.

But to paraphrase Lionel Shriver's book*, "We need to talk about KIM" sooner or later.

blogules 2010 (first published on Seoul Village)

* "We need to talk about Kevin"

North Korea's lost Won

This is not Pyongyang's first reevaluation, but it's the first time the regime acts so recklessly in that matter.

The population was granted one week to replace their old wons with the new and improved currency. Failure to do so would leave them with almost worthless notes (1 new NK won = 100 old NK won).

Officially, the aim of the game is to crack down abuses from people perverted by capitalism, or at least the little of it which made its way into what was left of the local economy. No one will come with a lot of money without good explanations.

But the actual profiteers of NK's corrupt system (in particular the nomenklatura) already changed their cash into US dollars or Chinese yuans, well ahead of the announcement. The only victims will be those who will opt for transparency.

This measure follows closings of parallel markets, safety valves for populations every day more left to their own devices... or rather lack of.

According to South Korean medias, the country would be on the verge of revolt, and streets littered with old bank notes deliberately torn in the middle of Kim Jong-il's portraits. Military forces received the order to shoot at sight anyone who tries to escape the last Stalinian paradise.

If Pyongyang authorities really want to accelerate takeover from China*, that's a smart move...

blogules 2009 - also on blogules V.F. ("La Coree du Nord evalue mal les effets de sa reevaluation") and on Seoul Village ("North Korea's lost Won")

* see "KIM Jong-il's bridge to nowhere"

October 29 Surprise ?

I just received Joe Biden's robomail for Barack's 10/29 special :

"Next Wednesday, October 29th, is a perfect night for supporters like you to
host a party in your home. Barack will appear on TV at 8:00 p.m. Eastern for 30
minutes. He'll share a positive message with Americans and discuss his plans for
healthcare reform, economic recovery, and a responsible end to the war in Iraq."

And I thought to myself hold on a minute. I'm John McCain, I don't have a dime to spare and my opponent is trusting prime time TV. My only way out is to have something else making the headlines that day. My new pal Dubya happens to be at a position where strings can be pulled...

If something really huge must hit the fan before November 4 (e.g. China invades North Korea), I'm ready to bet a buck on that very date.

---
addendum 20081027 (see cartoon)

Dubya eventually picked Syria to deliver the October Surprise McCain needed (red flag provoquing an artificial tension). Smart move : putting economy behind security is one thing, but boosting AIPAC vs JStreet may keep FL red.

Faith, lies and videotapes

Mitt Romney may lose the primaries because he's a Mormon supporting religious diversity and mutual respect*. Mike Huckabee may win the primaries because he's a moron supporting creationism and ID.

Guess what : the case for Iran was forged, intel cooked** - and the CIA even destroyed evidencies of Amerika's other wrongdoings : videotapes of torture sessions that could have revealed the faces of CIA agents. Because in Amerika, denouncing torture is a crime... unlike giving names of such weaselish peacemongers as Valerie Plame.

After signing so many pacts with the Devil, George W. Bush decides to write a letter to Kim Jong-il. It starts with "Dear Mr. Chairman", as if North Korea's dictator were a member of his base of "the Haves and the Have-mores". Dubya is just buying time : let me have a cleaner sheet with this atheist "pigmy" - I don't care if I lose face in Asia, all I want is you to let me finish this little crusade of mine in the Middle East before my mandate is over.

This is Amerika all right : this country has lost its values to the point it cannot even consider impeaching its most dangerous criminal.

* this absurd witch hunt is still on, and the reverse burden of proof remains to be implemented. As I pleaded before (see "Universal Declaration of Independence From Fundamentalism " - 20070809) : "The aim is not to please atheists and condemn believers but to expose fundamentalists, especially among those who are supposed to defend justice, education or democracy. You don’t want to ignite a witch hunt the McCarthy way (are you or have you ever been a fundamentalist ?), but rather to promote transparency over the hypocrisy and confusion fundamentalists are feeding upon. I’m asking for a much needed reverse burden of proof : nowadays, lawmakers are terrorized by fundamentalists and it should be the other way round. Instead of harassing the bulk of the candidates with questions regarding their private life, we should be forcing fundamentalists to come out in the open, give democracy the lead over the theocratic agenda. Lawmakers shouldn’t be compelled to demonstrate confusingly why they are good believers, they just should clearly tell that they don’t support fundamentalism and that, whatever they believe in, religion should not mix with politics in this country. Ultimately, if some people want religion to rule politics, let them found their own party like they do in other countries."
** nothing new under the sun (see "Iran : who wants war and why" - 20070925)

White, red and pink blogules to the World in 2020

The CER (Centre for European Reform ) and Accenture recently waged a debate about the World in 2020, partly fueled by Mark Leonard's essay "Divided world: The struggle for supremacy". The democracy vs autocracy divide sounds a little bit white vs black to me, and I may add a few other key structural changes within :
- America enjoying good demography dynamics but becoming more monolithic, more focused on itself, welcoming fewer influences from abroad. Growing old a different way.
- At the opposite of this Mainland Amerika, China is embracing its own diversity. Chinese imperialism is no more about spreading a unique monolithic model but about a much smarter pervasiveness, leveraging on all minorities instead of crushing cultural diversity (ie China intends to build the core of Koreanhood on its very soil, claims the Koguryo cultural heritage, and position the Korean peninsula as a motherland's satellite).
- What I call "Asianitude" keeps growing. Asian countries developping intra-asian relationships beyond the traditional bilateral relationships with Western countries, students and executives moving from places to places, a common ground and cultural identity, a sense of belonging to the same community at the individuals level...
- The Korean moment. Surrounded by ambitious giants (and a Japan dangerously returning to ultra nationalism and Showa-style fascism), seen as the herald of cultural diversity for other Asian nations, Korea has to cope with the collapse of North Korea. In what I call the Albania scenario, the people who used to live in a quasi sect are totally unprepared for a market economy : con men and gurus get the bulk of the values they received as a kick start in a new world.
- The turn of the millenium rise of fundamentalism (Christian in the US and Eastern Europe, Jewish in Eretz Israel and Islamist everywhere) may last if democracies keep electing leaders who put religion at the top of their not so hidden agendas (the collapse of Iraq, the rise of Iran as the regional threat, and the boost to fundamentalists across the globe were not collateral damage but the very aim of Bush's game). And while terrorists trained in Iraq blossom on new urban and suburban playgrounds, al Qaeda survivors and wannabes focus on rural Asia, Africa and South America.

Discussion - 3 challenges for Korea

(my answer to a question regarding the critical challenges Korea will face in the 10 years to come)

I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.

The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)

The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.

Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.

Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.

White blogule to OH Se-hoon - swift boats across the Hangang

LEE Myung-bak may or may not become South Korea's next president. Like Sarkozy, he could be leading in the polls too clearly too early. Actually, the man who changed the face of the Capital city (Bus Rapid Transit system, restored Cheonggyecheon, Seoul Sup...) always seems in a hurry and doesn't like to waste time. For a start, he never took the time to change his own face. Plus he was twice convicted for starting an election campaign too early.
But swiftness is certainly not a handicap in Korea. After all, LEE's predecessor did become Korea's head of state in a hurry : GOH Gun assumed ROH Moo-hyun's interim during his short 2004 impeachment transition.
Still, LEE's successor could very well become the "next-former-mayor-of-Seoul president". It's just that 2007 looks a little bit too early for OH Se-hoon, who isn't even of the "former" kind since he only took the mayoral charge last summer. At least, this good looking politician won't have to change his face to seduce the voters.
Yesterday, OH decided to stop the pre-electoral stalemate on real estate issues, the most important topic in a country that doesn't seem to realize North Korea is about to collapse in a meltdown if not nuclear, at least economically ten times more destructive than Albania's*.
Anyway... ROH Moo-hyun's Government cannot go as far as it would like against real estate speculation because the opposition doesn't want it to succeed before this year's elections... the said opposition including many members of the "ruling" Uri party. OH Se-hoon is a member of the Grand National Party but wants to be remembered as a man who reaches for the good of the majority : he didn't wait for national guidelines to set tougher rules on new developments. A small move but a wise and a timely one.
Nowadays, some short sighted Gangnam investors see LEE Myung-bak as their only hope of postponing the inevitable burst of Seoul's real estate bubble. The wisest and swiftest among them are becoming OH Se-hoon's best supporters... with the hope of making in Gangbuk for their future losses in Gangnam : they have already moved their assets north of the Han river, flocking to such areas as Nowon-gu like rats before the shipwreck.


* once again : instead of benchmarking Germany for their reunification scenarios, Koreans would be inspired to remember what happened to Albania after the collapse of Enver Hoxha's regime.

White blogule to Roh Moo-hyun - protecting Korea from the US

The Bush Administration has been working on a violent collapse of Kim Jong-il's regime for years. Bush even refused proposals by Pyongyang dovishest hawks to make peace and step by step becoming a strategic ally in the region. Former Ambassador Christopher R. Hill hasn't stopped putting oil on fire since North Korea's first nuclear test. For the White House, any diversion could help before November 7 mid-term elections.

So Roh Moo-hyun decided to protect the peninsula from this bilateral dead-end and announced the subject a purely intra-korean matter right before Condi Rice's visit in Seoul, without warning his closest advisors - especially those working on the Secretary of State's agenda.

Roh politely removes the US, Japan, Russia and China from the landscape, but also the UN, even if all voted resolutions will carefully be respected. Korean medias criticize the way secretary general elect Ban Ki-moon is cast away by his own Government the very week of his election at the head of the United Nations Organization, but this could prove to be a very smart way of helping Ban prove his independence from his country.

In the short term, I cannot see what can prevent NK from setting another nuclear test. In the medium term, Kim's regime will not survive. In a not so far future, Korea will face yet another nuclear neighbor : remilitarized Japan.

Right now, South should meet with North with the blessing of Beijing. For the time being, the 6-party talks should at least officially shrink to a 2-party-plus talks. Just to remind what's at stake if Korea as a whole collapses.

Red blogule to Kim Jong-il and to the six party talks

Unsurprisingly, North Korea proceeded to its first nuclear trial. An underground fart worth 4.2 on Richter's scale. Just loud enough for people around to get the message without the poisonous stench. In the dead middle of key commitee meetings in China, right during Abe's first visit to South Korea, and a few days after the quasi-confirmation of Ban Ki-moon as the UN's next secretary-general.

Kim Jong-il is guilty. For maintaining his country in terror, absolute denial of liberty and basic human rights, for imposing starvation, torture, deportations and other sweets to a people brought back to the Middle Age under the rule of a totalitarian sect. For having no other goal than preserving his own liberty, whatever the consequences.

South Korea is guilty. For avoiding the touchy "human rights" topic in order not to hurt the feelings of its neighbor. For balking in front of a reunification that would cost thousands of times more than Germany's from an humanitarian as well as an economical, social and political point of view.

Russia is guilty. For exporting the Stalinian model in its most perverse version. For nurturing a monster in the middle of a region under American influence.

China is guilty. For not seizing the opportunity of Russia's collapse in order to cool Kim's regime down when it was the weakest. For strenghtening militarism instead of encouraging reforms. And of course for wanting a Korean reunification INSIDE China.

Japan is guilty. For doing everything in order to delay a reunification that would cast it away from the center of the New Far East. For sabotaging each and every progress in the six-party talks as efficiently as its American friends.

USA are guilty. For letting their hawkiest wings crush any opportunity or opening, for wanting the messiest degradation of the situation, for purposedly strenghtening Kim's regime in its most diabolical sides. For refusing bilateral talks and becoming the most negative player in these 6 party talks, even before Kim himself. For knowingly provoquing the nuclear crisis and eventually collecting a much awaited diversion right before the November 2006 elections : "hey lads, see what kind of mess we prevented by removing Saddam from power ? see what happens when you let the UN or the IAEA take care of the WMD proliferation control ?"

The UN is guilty indeed. For relying on the goodwill of the United States of America, China and Russia for any decision going beyond the purchase of staples for the 8th floor.

Let's hope last night's trials will lead to a positive opening. Just like India and Pakistan did before declaring PAT instead of CHESSMATE.

Red blogule to 45 mn of war-hole fame - hopping without hope

If you want a good thrill you can either pay Richard Branson about $200,000 for a 5 mn wild ride in space or have the US Government pay you a $???M 45 mn trip to Iraq.

So Condolezza Rice enjoyed her 45 minutes of war-hole fame. The time to kiss Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad on a deserted Baghdad airport, expose a cute armored plate not much bigger than a Madeleine K. Albright pin, and be shot a couple of times. By embedded photographers and cameramen.

All smiles.

Like Kim Jong-il waving at an absent audience in a prefab North Korean program.

Red blogule to Korea's hubs - meanwhile, in China...

While Busan, Incheon and several Seoul areas compete to become Asia's next hub, China plays "baduk" at a much larger level in order to host the future center of Korea.

Claiming Korea's cultural heritage is not enough. Even if their army of revisionist historians don't succeed in putting Koguryo on the Map of China, Beijing's strategic planners will use their multitudes to build a Great Wall of Korea on Chinese soil.

This future "Korean triangle" is meant to become even more powerful than Shanghai. The bay around Dalian being safe from freezing winters, it can compete with both Incheon and Busan and become the ideal spot for the future Eurasian railways terminals - no need to bother completing these silly inter-korean lines boys, we're taking care of everything from Motherland. Look, the "Bay of Korea" bathes our shores, we're not like those naughty Japanese imperialists who renamed the Sea of Korea "Sea of Japan" or worse, called Dokdo "Takeshima" as a tribute to their colonial craft (they say "bamboo island" comes from the shapes of the rocks but we all know how bamboo grows : Takeshima doesn't describe this dust on the sea but celebrates the first implantation of the Empire on a foreign soil).

China's building the ideal home for Koreans, leveraging on its strong local ethnic minority and intending to lure natives from the Korean Peninsula : either from the North (escaping from Hell), or from the South (escaping from a country with the World's lowest fertility rate, an insane education system and fewer opportunities in general) in a XXIst Century wild West gold rush (by the way, while we're at it, why not have some drafting sessions in LA's Koreatown as well ?). Thats a serious threat for a country whose most valuable assets are intangible or related to the very character of its population.

To make it even worse, the recent politico-military deal clinched between Japan and the US further precipitates Seoul in the welcoming arms of Beijing. And Korea can't find much disinterested support from its other giant neighbor Russia. Kofi Annan won't be of much help to Roh Moo-hyun for a better respect of fair play in the region. Korea needs to federate other Asian nations worried about China's and Japan's neo-imperialism, become a herald of cultural, economical and political diversity in the region... without angering Beijing too much because it can't afford it.

Korea can become a hub after all. But only if its major cities play as a team instead of competing with each other.

Red blogule to stop-and-goes - the wisdom of crocodiles

A slomo brain can be something other than a curse. Take President Bush, for instance. After yesterday's signature of the deal with North Korea, he took a "wait and see" stance. Hours later, Pyongyang would add more conditions and threaten all previous efforts. And as Mayor C. Ray Nagin called for a homecoming of New Orleans citizens, King W said more time was needed. Hours later, a new hurricane alert would support this piece of wisdom.
After crocodile tears, the wisdom of crocodiles... Now that he knows the UN is not for him, Bill Clinton tries as hard as he can to get Dubya's skin and offer a nice bag to his lady. But the beast ain't dead yet.

White blogule to South Korea's diplomacy

It ain't over till it's over but at least North Korea declared they would cease their nuclear weapon program. The US envoy, former Ambassador to Seoul Christopher Hill, eventually accepted South Korea's proposal : light water is better than heavy fuel.
The Seoul-Beijing team defeated the Washington-Tokyo axis. Beyond nationalities, doves won over hawks in a most crucial part of the world.
Let's see what Karen Hughes can spin out of this new insult to the Bush doctrine.
Furthermore, let's see how far Seoul can go : pleasing Pyongyang was an easy job, tackling the human rights issue a much tougher challenge.