The Non-March of the Emperor (How Naruhito exposed Trump's ego trip, and Abe's agenda)

Donald Trump will probably remember his State Visit to Japan as a triumphant ego trip: we saw him play golf with his favorite losing partner Abe Shinzo, lift the first ever President Cup (designed for him: YUGE, sumo-sized), become the first Foreign head of state to meet the new Emperor... but what I will remember forever is The Naruhito Statement.

Not a word, but a silent, immobile stand, that should resonate much louder than it has so far.

For six long minutes, a significant section of his first encounter with Trump, Naruhito left his guest alone. Everything was carefully timed and planned, as the intricate red carpet patterns, and an official's intervention confirm.

So what happened? Donald, Melania, Naruhito and Masako arrive together on a wide podium, where they pause to listen to the national anthems. Then Trump moves ahead, and the other three stop where the official instructs them to, only a few meters after leaving the podium, just to symbolically lead him out. The POTUS joins another, smaller podium, where he listens to a military march, then moves to salute troops, then walks along another red line at the end of which he reconnects with the Emperor to meet civilians.

During these six surreal minutes, Trump is either alone, or accompanied by military staff. The only music playing is military. As if a military parade had been especially prepared for him alone. 

DJT is a Commander in Chief, and the Emperor of Japan should remain apolitical, but the whole process turns the moment into a ridicule, onanic one for the former, and a strong political statement for the latter: what better way to express Naruhito's strong support of Japan's peaceful constitution, against Abe and Nippon Kaigi, who want to destroy it?

In the same immobile move, Naruhito managed to make his guest look like an egotistic dictator, and Abe like a dangerous fool. Simply brilliant.

'Barf bag, anyone? Alt-Right meet Nippon Kaigi - Donald Trump Abe Shinzo / Shinzo Abe' (20190526 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1132660710452867078)

'Trump to Abe Shinzo: US-Japan alliance is 'ironclad'. At the personal level, make that 'gold-plated, 7-iron-clad' (20190528 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1133175410756210688)

As if to nail it even deeper, DJT made the most of Memorial Day by praising a dictator: KIM Jong-un is right to criticize Joe Biden, I'm not bothered by his cute missile launches, and what a fantastic real estate potential you have, Dear Chairman!

'Say, Donald Trump, are North Korea's Concentration Camps the kind of 'prime real estate' you're looking for to lock up migrant kids at the US borders? Your dictator friend could sure help you find Stephen Miller-friendly solutions to Make Amerika Great Again.' (20190528 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1133208200797253633)

John BOLTON and his fellow hawks have not conceded yet. And America's recent moves around Sasebo, theoretically meant to control the North Korea - Iran connection, could also facilitate a preemptive strike. The bloody nose scenario remains a tweet away.

One thing is sure: MOON Jae-in is out of the loop, and neither KIM nor TRUMP seem to trust him anymore.


blogules 2019
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!! and Twitter (@stephanemot, @blogules)


PS - from our twitterline (@theseoulvillage):

On the non-march of the Emperor:

'I wish Naruhito could brief Trump about actual East Asia History, not the one he learned from Shinzo Abe / Abe Shinzo & Xi Jinping' (20190526 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1132804997761064960)

'Surreal military march played for Trump alone on a podium. Ego trip (20190527 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1132806859591565312)

'Pacifist, apolitical Emperor Naruhito stays away from military while Trump salutes them' (20190527 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1132807172847333376)

'Kudos to Naruhito for keeping his distances from militarism, turning the parade Abe Shinzo / Shinzo Abe prepared for Trump into  ridiculous ode to a dictator' (20190527 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1132811289032441856)

'Even weirder on this video, the almost 6 mns Trump was left alone with military march & review (starting around 2:30). Naruhito only rejoined him to meet civilians. A clear message for Japan's Article 9, against ABEIGNomicS / Nippon Kaigi militarism? https://youtu.be/TQaiRq6jnws ' (20190527 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1132924066317254656)

On the return of bloody nose:

'Bloody nose returns? US getting ready for preemptive strike against North Korea, including bunker buster capacity (Kim Ki-ho: http://news.donga.com/home/3/all/20190525/95691723/1  Sasebo)' (20190526 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1132409982039646208)

'FYI this bunker buster is meant to bust Kim Jong-un, not to rescue Abe Shinzo / Shinzo Abe when he plays golf with Trump:' (20190526 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1132439023559950336)

Invasion of Iraq: The Bush Legacy in 3 Impostures

It's been 10 years since the invasion of Iraq, and I won't repeat my usual rant. In case you missed the previous episodes, here are 3 messages you should remember:
 

***

1) The invasion of Iraq was meant to spread fundamentalism worldwide, not democracy in Iraq:

Always keep this in mind: "George W. Bush didn't act as a President of The United States of America in the interest of his country. And George W. Bush didn't even act as a Republican in the interest of his party. George W. Bush acted as a fundamentalist in the interest of fundamentalism."

I wrote the "Universal Declaration of Independence from Fundamentalism" to expose the imposture of fundamentalism (a totalitarian, political program advertised as a universal, religious program), the way it undermines both democracy and religion, and the ways to defuse the sick ping pong between supposedly opposed extremists.

As I posted for the 5th anniversay of this masquerade ("Iraq - 5 years of success for fundamentalists"), the invasion of Iraq was a triumph: as expected, it boosted fundamentalism and terror worldwide. "Mission accomplished".

And we should consider ourselves lucky these lunatics didn't go all the way (see "Iran : who wants war and why").


***

2) Oil was the means of corruption, not the aim of the game, and the undermining of US democracy was not just collateral damage:

To make it short: theocons set the agenda with the help of neocons (what better duet than Bush-Cheney to achieve this?), and sold the war to paleocons*.

In other words: the aim of the game was to undermine democracy (the theocon - fascist purpose), and the official cause an intervention to free a country from its dictator (typical neocon stuff), but in order to launch the war, the blessing from the oil and defense lobbies was needed (enter the paleocons).

The only thing missing was an alibi for immediate action. A clear and immediate danger. The outrageous lies and forged cases about WMDs or Saddam-al Qaeda ties did the trick.

Of course, there was always the risk of nosy reporters doing their jobs, of citizens exercising their rights to transparency.

The Patriot Act became effective more than one year before the invasion. The trickier part was the media, and the Bush Administration offered a deal to US majors: don't get at us until after the 2004 elections** and we'll help you consolidate your power. At the head of the FCC, the son of Colin Powell did his best to alter competition laws, and was instrumental in the concentration that followed at a critical moment in the history of traditional press, broadcasting, and internet. Michael Powell went as far as organizing a phony forum to settle the case just weeks ahead of the invasion. He later joined the RAND Corporation.

In general, the Bush administration more or less successfully tried to undermine the separation of powers at the root of democracy:
. executive? too far (right) reaching, and totally unaccountable.
. legislative? corrupt, and producing anti-democratic laws
. judicial? promoting torture and the negation of all rights
. media? at best embedded, at worst accomplice
. netizens? brainwashed by pervasive propaganda, monitored by a dystopian state
. ....
. and, of course, the theocons' priority: destroying secularism, the pilar of democracy. Again, mixing religion with politics, education, science... is the best way to attack democracy and religion at the same time (see "France, secularism and burqa : a political issue, not a religious one")

Yes, a lot of money was at stake. For the religious lobbies that pushed against the separation of church and state as well as for the military and oil lobbies. And the mass plundering of Iraqi resources is only one side of a scheme that turned record surplusses into record deficits (among other vital rescue missions: saving private Halliburton... a charity movement that continued in another Gulf, following Kathrina - see "Red blogule to Halliburton and the 40 thieves").

But the corruption reached much deeper, to the very fundamentals of democracy.
 

***

3) The Arab Spring owes nothing to the Iraq War, to the contrary:

 
George W. Bush and his fan club try to sell us the Arab Spring as the consequence of his invasion of Iraq, a "liberation war" that "spread democracy across the region", but this imposture is totally unacceptable.
 
First, Bush's crusade contributed to silencing moderates, and strengthening radical islamists as the only political force capable of taking power.
 
Second, his illegal invasion for anti-democratic purposes cannot be compared to self determination movements aiming at genuine freedom and democracy. The only nation Bush ever tried to build was a theocracy: he may be an inspiration for islamists, certainly not for actual freedom fighters.
 
Third, the Bush administration did serve as an example in the region, but not in the arab world (see "Israel accepted as true the choice between its security and its ideals").


 
***
Justice has yet to be done, and I guess the last words of Tomas Young (in "The Last Letter") are worth remembering:
"A Message to George W. Bush and Dick Cheney From a Dying Veteran": "I hope you will be put on trial. But mostly I hope, for your sakes, that you find the moral courage to face what you have done to me and to many, many others who deserved to live. I hope that before your time on earth ends, as mine is now ending, you will find the strength of character to stand before the American public and the world, and in particular the Iraqi people, and beg for forgiveness.".

And as always, we should expose and denounce the impostures, and blow the whistle each time a government tries to alter the separation of powers or to play with the fundamentals of democracy.


blogules 2013
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!! and Twitter (@stephanemot, @blogules)


* ... and if the "anticons" were not yet in the picture, they're not a model for democracy either: "the Tea Party is not just an alternative to the Republican or the Democratic parties, but the very negation of the republic, the very negation of democracy" (see "Grand Old Parting - enter the anticons")
** Heck, even until the 2008 elections for most of them (see "The Silence of the Lambs (War in Iraq and US networks)"). How dare collaborators give lessons after such a disgrace (see "What Fareed Zakaria got wrong")?

Deja vu all over again

It never fails: election year in the US, fear feeding frenzy between ultraconservatives from DC, Tel Aviv, and Tehran.

This time, warmongers from all sides share a common target: Barack Obama. And clearly, "44" has more to fear from them than from Romney or Santorum. Among the usual suspects:

- Khamenei and Ahmadinejad clearly remember this guy who, as soon as he took over the White House, adressed the Iranian people for Nowruz*. The message got through, and if the regime crushed the first non-Palestinian uprising in the region, it lost for good whatever was left of its credibility at home**.

- Four years ago, Tel Aviv hawks perfectly seized the Bush-Obama transition, launching an infamous attack on Gaza to secure a crucial vote on February 2009, before putting out the fire with more gazoline***. With Netanyahu back, and all moderates eradicated from the national debate, these guys managed to survive the Arab Spring, deliberately playing it as a threat instead of embracing the opportunity. They are not likely to release the pressure now, and will give all the support the AIPAC needs to keep the upper hand over J Street in the vetting of candidates (beyond the White House, the Congress remains key).

- At home, Obama still has to cope with a minority of dangerous fanatics who badly want a war between Israel and Iran because it's supposed to bring back their Messiah****, but at least they don't control the Oval Office anymore. Of course, the usual Cassandra crew keeps lobbying and forging a case with smoking guns and nuclear mushrooms, but what they want is to secure fat budgets for defence contractors, not necessarily a real war. The people I fear most are the likes of Frank Carlucci, Donald Rumsfeld, or Paul Wolfowitz: amoral thugs who'd do anything to turn the tables, even if it means the humiliation of the United States of the loss of thousands of lives. Preferably when a Carter or an Obama is in office, but the trick also works when it comes to maintaining a friend in power (guess whom).

Okay. When boys start playing with a certain kind of toys and matches, things can go really bad, but they may not need to go all the way. A well timed second dip could sink Barack Obama more efficiently than a torpedo. And if you need a quick fix, ye ole oil crisis easy does it. Not very original, I know, but these guys are more often into creationism than into creativity.

One thing's for sure: we'll never run out of bad guys for this kind of show.


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!


*as well as Israeli leaders (Beyond the Iranian people, Obama is addressing Israel)
**"Khamenei's death wish"
***"Bush's Farewell : Mission Accomplished... as Fundamentalist in Chief", "Netanyahu's al Aqsa intifada"
Iran : who wants war and why

Sand curtain

If protorevolutionary movements across the Arabo-Muslim world tend to remind me of the late eighties in Eastern Europe, this is completely different.

This time it's not about the regionwide collapse of a corrupt system and ideology with a top-down benediction from a pro-reform leader (Gorbachev), but about several grassroot movements challenging local dictators, corrupt regimes sans ideology.

Note that both Ben Ali and Mubarak were already ailing caids. Beyond their political deaths, what matters now is the removal of entourages controlling most of the power in each country.

Of course, nature abhors a vacuum, and fundamentalists would love to step in to fill the ideology void. At this defining moment, most people on the street seem to reject as false the choice between dictatorship and fundamentalism, but most people on the street prefer order to chaos, and uncertainty shouldn't last too long.

Israel nervously watches as Jordanian and Egyptian regimes falter under popular pressure. Muslim friends who could turn enemies, with the benediction of Iran, whose own corrupt regime postponed its ineluctable fall by a few years by crushing popular uprisings at home. Unfortunately, these days, Israeli leaders seem to position themselves as a corrupt regime with some ideology. Not a dictatorship, mind you, but not a bunch of nice guys either.

Barack Obama is a nice guy. Unfortunately, these days, the US leader doesn't seem to be in charge of foreign policy, so huge is the gap between what he says and what the US do. And the poor lad doesn't have one Gorbachev to call if he wants that sand curtain torn down...

So what's ahead ? Probably trouble and uncertainties, but somehow this transitional period has started after WWII and independence wars, and we're closer to the end than from the beginning. Something new will emerge and eventually, something positive. Societies freed from political and religious deviances. Hopefully, the time has come for a true Muslim renaissance.

Right now, most dictators across the globe must have gotten some kind of message. But even supposedly strong democracies should be thinking twice when they applaud successful local uprisings or self-determination processes like in South Sudan : what is a nation in this globalized world, what will be holding its members together in this networked millenium ?

More than ever, each individual will reach for the universal (as a human being), and the personal (identity).

blogules 2011

Afghanistan, ground zero

So after all, Hamid Karzai may emerge as the official winner of the August 20th blackout.

The day presidential and regional elections were held in Afghanistan, all lights of democracy seemed to be switched off :
- a me-too product modeled after Iran's 2009 infamous elections : manipulations, forged results, stuffed ballots...
- a few typically local florentine delicacies : last minute outrageous alliances and legislative gifts, continuous and shameless corruption...
- an agenda set by enemies of democracy : Taliban intimidations, threats, bombings, terror attacks, murders, mutilations of women who dared vote..., and to spice it up,
- the revolting complicity of all major Western democracies : eyes, ears, and noses wide shut, observers didn't observe anything, media didn't report anything, respecting the blackout on violence (including the aforementioned attacks on democracy levelled by the Afghan government)

As a result : a parody of democracy, a low turnout, the final destruction of the last illusions of the Afghan people.
The government started testing rumors : Karzai would have won by a landslide with 68% thanks to a massive turnout, so no second round needed, thanks for coming.

In other words : Iran Elections 2009 redux (see "Ahmadinejad Alienates Iranian People Today, Iranian Clerics Tomorrow"), except that unlike Ahmadinejad, Karzai was supposed to cruise easily towards victory in case of a second round : Abdullah Abdullah doesn't enjoy a political spectrum as wide as Mousavi's.

But the attempted fraud went too far : such a stage of forgery would backfire on Western democracies as surely as it did on Khamenei.

So the government backpedaled and anounced today a much more politically correct first batch of official results : President Karzai would enjoy a slight, 2 point lead over his main rival according to 10% of the votes fully counted. 10% more shall be revealed tomorrow, and so on because see, that's the smartest way we and our Western allies found to gain some time to sort things out and build the least implausible scenario. We wouldn't want this crisis to take an Iranian turn, would we ?

Welcome to Ground Zero, Afghanistan. The twin towers of democracy and decency were not that tall so nobody noticed their fall, but this time, inside job conspiration theories are not totally unfounded.

blogules 2009
(also in French : "Afghanistan, morne plaine")

Netanyahu's al Aqsa intifada

Benjamin Netanyahu has a sense for timing. To answer Obama's ultimatum on illegal colonies on Palestinian ground, he waited for the POTUS to be silenced by uproar in Iran*.

Emboldened by the crisis in Tehran, Tel Aviv hawks pushed ahead, financing new settlements. Internal Security Minister Yitzhak Aharanovitch's visit to al Aqsa Mosque was supposed to mirror that of then Interior Minister Ariel Sharon to the Temple Mount back in 2000, which ignited the Second Intifada. Only Sharon didn't even dare entering the Mosque. Avigdor Lieberman's friend did, and his team went as far as exlaining that "the intention of the visit was to see how the police would deploy in case of an emergency"**.

The Temple Mount has been under considerable threat for years, several extreme right Israeli activist groups undermining its very foundations and claiming this sacred Muslim ground as theirs. One could hardly find any more controversial thing to do at this defining moment.

As advertised during his campaign, Benjamin Netanyahu is governing the most extreme way. His intentions are crystal clear : fueling hatred, destroying all peace attempts, strengthening radicals within Israeli as well as Palestinian ranks... business as usual for a post-Rabin Israeli PM. The difference : Netanyahu must act even bolder than his predecessors to maintain his coalition.

Joe Biden mentioned a test during the first 6 months of Obama's presidency ? Here we are. Die hard fundamentalists are putting their very existence in the balance in both Iran and Israel... And oh, Kim Jong-il plans another missile launch to celebrate July the 4th. Take your ticket and get in the line.

* see previous blogules on post-Bush Israel and Iran, and "Justice in America, No Democracy in Israel ?".
** from IslamOnline.net and "Occupied Jerusalem" : "Palestinians Blast Provocative Al-Aqsa Visit"

Khamenei's death wish

It's over now. As expected*, even if Khamenei manages to crush the opposition, the Supreme Leader has totally lost the battle against himself.

Iran rulers are now led to the classic desperate straits of a fascist regime lacking confidence in their discredited leader. Since they cannot anymore pretend to bring the Iranian people together around the figures of Ahmadinejad or Khamenei, they forge a case for terror attacks on the father figure of the 1979 Revolution ("suicide bomber" near Khomeini Mausoleum), and fuel nationalism by mentioning foreign agent provocateurs**.

Official media exhibit demonstrators attacking policemen as a proof of their terrorist nature, but the very image of demonstrators defying the explicit orders of Ali Khamenei is in itself a major blow to the country's most important Ayatollah.

Terror and foreign agent provocateurs are a reality, though. But terror perpetrated by the State, foreign agents invited by the State (some Iranian policemen refuse to hit their own kind, some militiamen talked only Arabic and not Farsi...).

Official propaganda remains strong and powerful, but Iran's level of education and international overture makes it impossible to control minds as tightly as in other countries.

Mousavi brilliantly exposed Khamenei's contradictions, putting a true believer's mirror in front of his face and caricature of faith. Who is the true guardian of the spirit of the revolution ? Who is the true defensor of the Islamic Republic ? Who would be a true martyr if he were to die ? And on the other side, who is this imposteur posing as a Supreme Leader ? Who is this deviant liar ? Who must "face the consequences" ?

The stronger the repression, the quicker the implosion. Khamenei seems ready to go all the way and probably won't concede. The key now is to see who wants to join him as he fullfills his death wish.


* see "Ahmadinejad Alienates Iranian People Today, Iranian Clerics Tomorrow" and "Party Unity My Ayatollah ?"
** UK explicitely named by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. BBC's Jon Leyne asked to leave (BBC in Farsi too independent for the regime).

Party Unity My Ayatollah ?

As expected (see "Ahmadinejad Alienates Iranian People Today, Iranian Clerics Tomorrow ?"), Supreme Leader Khamenei ends up badly exposed in the front line after taking too carelessly sides in utterly controversial elections.

Khamenei eventually conceded a recount and theoretically, Guardian Council won't change the story. Except this is Khamenei's last chance to save face : at this stage, he can still dump his joker (Ahmadinejad). Unless he prefers to share his fate.

Either way, the system failed :

=> The official story doesn't stand mathematically or rather, appears too outstandingly perfect. Beyond the elements in the equation already mentioned earlier, some pointed out the fact that when you compared votes for Mousavi and Ahmadinejad, the six official partial results released over election day drew too perfect a line. Farideh Farhi (University of Hawaii) nails the result as "pulled out of a hat"*.

=> A different story would mean a failure in the election process, ricocheting on the country's ruling class.

And either way, the Supreme Leader failed in his judgement and sense of timing. His supporters, but furthermore the people of influence who owe him their powers, must have taken notice. Khamenei caused a disruption that could prove fatal for the unity of Iran as a people as well as a political system.

Even Mousavi would have some trouble playing the Obama role, bringing back all parties together...

Party Unity My Ayatollah ?


* see "Was Iran's election rigged? Here's what is known so far" (Christian Science Monitor 20090617).

Ahmadinejad Alienates Iranian People Today, Iranian Clerics Tomorrow

Iran reformers were denied their "Yes We Can" moment or at least, a second round against the incumbent at the Presidential elections.

To Mahmoud Ahmadinejad I'd say "yes, you can" remain in power thanks to such disgraceful methods but no, you can't declare yourself a winner. Because somehow, you put an end to the 1979 Revolution and alienated, beyond half of the great Iranian people, the clerics who allowed this political suicide.

The problem with official election results is that they look too perfect to be true :

. Ahmadinejad's 62.63% are high enough to avoid controversies about a potential second round, and low enough to avoid embarrassing comparisons with dictator plebiscites in banana republics or stalinian states... or even Bush approval rates in Midland, TX.

. in a model democracy you need a significant opposition, and considering the success of his campaign as well as all polls published before election day, Mir-Hossein Mousavi couldn't decently claim less than one third of ballots. Done, but not by much (33.75%).

Great, but that leaves us with only a few votes to split between the remaining two candidates. And we want to keep the same 2 to 1 ratio in favor of conservatives against reformers... so be it : 1.73% for Roshen Rezaee and 0.85% for Mehdi Karroubi !

Don't get me wrong : I expected Ahmadinejad to come first at the first round, leveraging on his position at the entry point of elections, for the registration. He was bound to get a massive turnout in rural regions, struggling only against candidates with a local stronghold. But a second round was more than likely.

The turnout exploded (85% vs 62.6% in 2005), but Mousavi contributed a lot to it while mobilising younger generations. With 13.2 M votes, he weighs twice as much as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani at the first round four years ago (the old leader campaigned for him). But Ahmadinejad's score seems extreme (even in rural areas - 75% according to the IRNA / Islamic Republic News Agency), and Karroubi's simply impossible : 300,000 ballots for a man who claimed over 5 millions at the 2005 presidential elections and was expected to finish significantly ahead of Rezaee ?

In a press conference broadcasted live on international channels (NB: CNN winning over BBC for the Farsi to English interpretation), Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli exposed the smoking gun : in the same speech, he delivered extremely precise results at the national level, and announced further delays in the publication of regional results.

Officially, the announcement has to be done by each region, but the message seems obvious :

- leave us some time to give our "top down" decree some illusion of "bottom up" consistency.

- there will necessarily be some inconsistencies hard to swallow for the opposition (you can't explain quantum physics with classic physics), but we would consider them minor and local, and they wouldn't threaten the national results

Always the vigilant Juan Cole* already pointed out a few aberrations : "Ahmadinejad's numbers were fairly standard across Iran's provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations", the Lur Karroubi failing in Luristan, the Azeri Mir-Hossein Mousavi in Azerbaïdjan... Mahsouli did announce a victory of the latter in Tehran, though.

Unsurprisingly, opposition turned into resistance as soon as the first results were published.

Violence, arrests, censorship... unsurprisingly, Ahmadinejad confirmed his fundamentalist nature : his main targets are neither Israeli nor Americans but Iranian moderates.

His 2005 victory was already a felony but here, the clash seems final. Something is broken for good, and beyond the trust between some Iranians and their president.

Dragging along with him down to illegitimacy the clerics who let him go this far, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may simply have put an end to the 1979 Revolution :

- as a former Prime Minister of Khomeini, Mousavi was paradoxically in the best position to extend the regime's legitimacy even as he pushed reforms

- by alienating Iran youth, religious leaders deprived themselves of a future

- worse : their destiny is now intimately linked to a man who is not even one of them. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei cannot hide anymore behind this joker : he is more than ever responsible for whatever Ahmadinejad does.

- Ahmadinejad wins but the cleric system loses - exactly like the 2004 US elections, when Bush's victory meant the end of the GOP

This President and this system cannot go on forever together and a divorce seems ineluctable. And the more Ayatollahs stick to their suicidal posture, the nastier the separation will be.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has never looks so strong, nor Iran so weak since 1979.

Exactly as the world needs a stable and consistent Iran.

Of course, repression can succeed in the short term, but Iran may have soon to choose between the unity of the country and the survival of a regime. Right now, Ahmadinejad is compelled to enter one way or another unknown territories : even only in apparence, he must somewhat offer some positive change in the balance. And the easiest path seems on the international stage.


* see "Informed Comment" : "Stealing the Iranian Election"

---
also on blogules (V.F.)

State of The World Union : The Obama Doctrine

Believe it or not, we live in a multicultural and diverse world.

A world with Muslim Americans, Christian Palestinians, and Jewish Iranians. A world where a woman can lead the biggest Muslim-majority country, where a Hussein can lead America (which by the way is not a Christian country*), and where an Israeli leader is allowed to survive a few hours after signing a peace agreement with an Arab or Palestinian leader.

Barack Hussein Obama delivered his first State of the World Union address in Cairo**.

A great and powerful speech, without any surprise as far as the content was concerned. But I guess much will be said about its form, around 7 points (a number rich of symbols in all religions) :

Priority given to "violent extremism in all of its forms". In a nutshell : "We reject as false the choice between the Bush Doctrine and the Qaeda Doctrine"***. Yes, dear reader, we're definitely heading towards a Universal Declaration of Independence from Fundamentalism. And U-Turn is not an option, because "violence is a Dead End".

Second point : solving the first point will be much easier once we settle the issues between "Israelis, Palestinians and the Arab world" (note the address to the peoples, beyond the states)

Third point : North Korean and Iranian leaders must read Sun Tzu and Stan Lee. "With great powers come great responsibilities", said Uncle Ben to Peter Parker. In That One's mouth, it comes like this : uh... lllook, let's consider the "rights and responsibilities of nations on nuclear weapons".

Issue #4 : Democracy. A beautiful word, which the new POTUS doesn't want to define nor to force into other countries (leaving that to his predecessor). He does expose clear directions, though : "the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. Those are not just American ideas, they are human rights, and that is why we will support them everywhere. And we will welcome all elected, peaceful governments – provided they govern with respect for all their people." The perfect message ahead of the Iranian elections, stressed by this spectacular act of contrition on behalf of the American people : "the United States played a role in the overthrow of a democratically-elected Iranian government". Change is coming to the CIA as well...

The 5th branch of this verbal Menorah is "religious freedom". But not as the "freedom of proselytization" envisioned by W., willing to open the gates of secular Europe to fundamentalists, cultists, and megachurch franchises... Religious freedom is first about "the ability of peoples to live together". Obama prefers "Interfaith service" to that more or less literal cut-throat competition.

Number 6 : "I am not a number, I am a free man!" And a free woman. Always keeping in mind that "women's rights" are not threatened only in the Muslim world. The US or France are lagging behind "Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia, we have seen Muslim-majority countries elect a woman to lead". Obama scores another big hit when he blames hastive judgements : "I reject the view of some in the West that a woman who CHOOSES to cover her hair is somehow less equal, but I do believe that a woman who is denied an education is denied equality".

The 7th and final point can seem a trifle commercial, but "economic development and opportunity" does include education and science, and not the way intended by promoters of Intelligent Design and other creationists of all confessions. We are facing a future where, even if peace emerges soon, many generations will have no experience of it beforehand. This is about preventing a relapse to "violent extremism in all of its forms", preventing a return to square one.

A call for mutual respect wrapped up in references from the Torah, the Quran, and the New Testament. Religion never mixes well in politics but precisely, somehow, Obama managed to draw a most precious line in Egypt.



* according to the first international treaty signed by the US (Treaty of Tripoli, 1796, Art. 11.) : "the Government of the United States of America is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion". That's right before the part quoted by Obama in Cairo ("the United States has in itself no character of enmity against the laws, religion or tranquility of Muslims").

** see transcript (NYT 20090604)

*** If you miss the Bush-Cheney, us-vs-them mantras, there's still Osama Bin Laden :
""Antagonizing Muslims" ?!? Look who's talking, Osama"

India : no change means change

Congress Party claimed victory in the Indian election marathon, strengthening the positions of Manmohan Singh, party leader Sonia Gandhi and even her son Rahul Gandhi. A crushing desillusion for radicals from the nationalists and fundamentalist sides.

Yes, moderates can win. Even after Mumbai*. Even after a Bush-Cheney victory at the 2009 Israeli elections.

Maybe Indians are smarter and wiser than Israeli. Maybe they are simply more sensitive to demagogy that promises a more humane development instead of demagogy that promises more inhumane treatments. Go figure.

Mir Hossein Mousavi Khamenech is definitely smarter and wiser than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A reformer with the experience of a conservative war Prime Minister, he would get rid of Iran's Moral Police, restore some basic women's rights, open the media to private entrepreneurs, and put the country back on the diplomatic map. A poor score of Hezbollah in upcoming elections in Lebanon could be a good sign for reform in Iran.

Stability and calm in such big countries as India and Iran could radiate around, even as Pakistan and Sri Lanka threaten to fuel future fires while crushing Taliban or Tamil Tigers.

We've been used to electoral calendars overwhelmed with bad news and this year already provided its share, but should the trend be confirmed, even Israel would be forced to reconsider its suicidal stance.


* see "Lessons from Mumbai ?"

Last Throes of Democracy : India Votes

The World's biggest democracy votes. Ahead of Iran, and after Israel (another candidate for theocracy*).

Soon, we can actually measure the "Lessons from Mumbai" : either fundamentalists and nationalists gain ground, or moderates secure the country. Or politics at its worst wins : an unnatural coalition cripling democracy and fueling the rise of hatred upon which radicals feed.

Manmohan Singh is far from being Mr Perfect, but he somehow managed to minimize the impact at home of Pakistan's gradual collapse under Pervez Musharraf. India is far from being a model democracy, and it suffered its share of terror well before Mumbai, but the central Government kept some distance from fundamentalism as well as from ultranationalism.

Yet the main issues for voters will be economy, inegalities, not politics. But precisely : beyond these elections, the best way to prevent radicalism from rising is to eradicate poverty and unfairness. May India strengthen its so rich and diverse identity around that noble mission, may India sent the right message of mutual respect to our troubled world.


* "Beyond the Iranian people, Obama is addressing Israel"
see "Justice in America, No Democracy in Israel ?" in "Bush's Farewell : Mission Accomplished... as Fundamentalist in Chief"

J Street Releases New Poll of American Jewish Community

Food for thought following Obama's Nowruz speech (see "Beyond the Iranian people, Obama is addressing Israel"):

1) Two unfortunate events happened soon afterwards : first a collision between a US submarine and a US warship in the Strait of Ormuz resulting in an oil spill (smells almost like Cheney's false flag tin can spirit), second a speech of Shimon Peres to the same Iranian people, probably meant to sabotage Obama's. Both events could and should have been prevented.

2) A very fortunate poll by J Street on how American Jews want Obama-style diplomacy to operate in the Middle East. Yes, there was some support for Gaza, but the war was improductive for peace. Furthermore, far from the AIPAC rethoric, American Jews are ready for major concessions to reach peace, refuse Lieberman, and want the US to discuss with a Hamas-Fatah Palestinian leadership.

---
J Street's announcement (below) :


J Street Releases New Poll of American Jewish Community
(Amy Spitalnick - March 23rd, 2009 10:56 am)

A new J Street poll, released today, shows strong continued support among American Jews for assertive American diplomacy in ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as in the Middle East generally. The results, which you can read in full below, demonstrate an understanding that difficult compromises will have to be made by both sides in order to bring true peace and security to Israel, the Palestinians, and the entire region.

American Jews remain remarkably supportive of assertive American efforts to achieve Middle East peace. The poll finds an extraordinarily strong base of 69 percent of American Jews firmly supporting active American engagement in bringing about Middle East peace, even if it means publicly disagreeing with or exerting pressure on both Arabs and Israelis, compared to 66 percent eight months ago;

69 percent also support the U.S. working with a unified Hamas-Fatah Palestinian Authority government to achieve a peace agreement with Israel, even when informed that the U.S. does not recognize Hamas due to its status as a terrorist organization and its refusal to recognize Israel. Interestingly, a March poll conducted by the Truman Institute at Hebrew University reported that 69 percent of Israelis also think Israel should negotiate with a joint Hamas-Fatah government;

By 76-24 percent, American Jews support a two-state, final status deal between Israel and the Palestinians along the lines of the agreement nearly reached eight years ago during the Camp David and Taba talks;

On Avigdor Lieberman: When told about Lieberman’s campaign platform requiring Arab citizens of Israel to sign loyalty oaths, as well as his threats against Arab Members of Knesset, American Jews opposed these positions by a 69 to 31 margin. One in three believe their own connection to Israel will be diminished if Lieberman assumes a senior position in the Israeli cabinet.

On Gaza: While Jews rallied behind Israel and approved of Israel’s military action by a 3 to 1 margin, 59 percent still felt that the military action had no impact on Israel’s security (41 percent) or made Israel less secure (18 percent), while only 41 percent felt it made Israel more secure.

Full March 2009 J Street Survey Results:
Survey Data.
Survey Analysis from Jim Gerstein, Principle at Gerstein Agne, the firm that commissioned the poll. Press Release.
Powerpoint Presentation, also from Jim Gerstein of Gerstein Agne.
Read J Street’s July 2008 survey results here.

Beyond the Iranian people, Obama is addressing Israel

NYT's Ethan Bronner is not exactly holding fire against Israel these days, and he shouldn't : investigations are proving how essential principles were deliberately abandoned during the recent invasion of the Gaza strip.

Bronner also pointed out* the obvious fact that Israel cannot stick to its darkest sides (racism, fascism, which are not a Avigdor Lieberman monopoly these days), particularily if moderates gain ground in Iran on June 12, 2009.

As a Nowruz celebration, Citizen Obama decided to cast a video ballot for the upcoming presidential elections.

The Iranian people discovered a POTUS talking directly to them with words of mutual respect, a humble admiration for the great Persian culture, and a genuine spark of intelligence and compassion in the eyes. Barack even cautioned the Islamic Republic of Iran label, tearing down a 30 year old wall between both nations.

Reaching out without touching faith, Obama's speech was actually putting as much pressure on Israel as on Iran.

Livni and Netanyahu had better come up with something fit for this new millenium.


* see "After Gaza, Israel Grapples With Crisis of Isolation" (NY Times - 20090318)

PS: Obama sent an even more direct message to Bush when he wrote to Chirac.

Next Stop : Pakistan

They have fled Iraq for Afghanistan. For many, it was a way back to where it all started. Others learned their trade in Iraq, a giant terrorist training camp created by George W. Bush in his fundamentalist crusade in a country that really didn't need this kind of touristic resorts.

Now that a surge is on the way to Kabul and Southern Afghanistan, they are touring Pakistan beyond their usual Northern safe havens.

Pakistan is not safe, and the economical, social, and political situation worsened since last November, when I wrote these already gloomy lines (see "Lessons from Mumbai ?") : "The main target in the Mumbai attacks was Pakistan, the weaker link, and the democracy the most likely to fall for fundamentalism if the international community fails to help it help itself."

44 started using the same military quick fixes as 43/36* : air strikes as "surgical" as Israel's bombs on Lebanon or Gaza. But make no mistake : diplomacy is on its way. Not the naive, vintage dovish kind of diplomacy, but resolute and fair.

Diplomacy is on its way, and Barack's most lethal weapons are on their way : ahead of Hurricane Hillary, "diplomatic equivalent of a hydrogen bomb" AfPak envoy Richard Holbrooke met with Hamid Karzai... and The H. Bomb clearly avoided the kind of toasts Carter shared with Shah Reza Pahlavi over 30 years ago.

Last week, a local governor made an international show of a bonfire of puppy crops and illegal drugs seized in his region. A small step for Afghanistan, but a major leap out of the loop for ever the media magnet Karzai.

A surge on the ground, elections and potentially new faces at the helm of the country... change is probably coming to Afghanistan.

A Taliban surge, a catastrophic economic downturn, déjà vu short sighted legal and constitutional compromises with fundamentalists, radical factions fueling the seeds of civil war... change is surely coming to Pakistan.

President Obama must keep his eyes on the ball. Keeping in mind the fact that dancers are once again changing ballrooms.


* not Lyndon Baines Johnson but George Walker Bush : 43 has just been awarded the 36th position in the best POTUS contest. Dubya's behind Hoover but before Fillmore - the latter does have the name of a villain in a Harry Potter book, while W. enjoys the fame of Daddy Herbie (41 went up from #20 to #18).

The Silence of the Lambs (War in Iraq and US networks)

The surge is working. Iraq is not an issue for November elections. Everything is fine, go back to sleep and don't forget to cast a Republican ballot later this year.

Now more about the coming war between Iran and Israel*, brought to you by the dream team that delivered "Shock and Awe" to your doorsteps (by the way... ' want some more yellow ribbons to decorate your front yard ? hurry up and enjoy our special pre-foreclosure rebates).

USA's top 3 networks (ABC, CBS, NBC) each devoted an average 60 weekday minutes of Iraq war coverage over the first half of 2008. That's 20 seconds per day, compared to 1 mn in 2007**.

And what 20 seconds ! The propaganda can be summed up with : "Mission Almost Accomplished", democracy is catching, thugs are losing the battle, and if you read through these few lines you can almost believe our boys will get the heck outta there sooner than expected.

Before the 100 years mentioned by John McCain anyway - this guy has lost his bearings and is confusing with the age of his great-grandson. But it doesn't matter for the GOP : Iraq remains a key electoral issue but Mac is tied with Obama (43% each according to Gallup**). If news reports were more accurate, I guess he would be lagging behind by 20 points or more.

If you are in the US and under the spell of those Weapons of Mass Disinformation, please read such articles as "Reporters Say Networks Put Wars on Back Burner" from the NYT***. Or if you want to watch actual news, tune in to Global Pulse's video on LinkTV (including the refreshing no bull...t interview of CBS News' Lara Logan by Jon Stewart)**** :



* see see "Iran : who wants war and why" (20070925)
** Gallup "Obama Has Edge on Key Election Issues" (20080624)
** "Reporters Say Networks Put Wars on Back Burner" (NYT 20080623)
*** "War isn't news anymore ?" (Global Pulse 20080626 on LinkTV), relayed by the CMD (20080706)

Iraq - 5 years of success for fundamentalists

"Mission Accomplished" : five years later, Iraq is dead. Around one million Iraqis are dead. Around four million Iraqis have been displaced by the war. Collateral damage : moderates from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Palestine, Israel, Lebanon, USA, and the rest of the World are, more or less literally, either already dead or on their way.

Five years later and as expected and announced in these virtual pages*, fundamentalism is blooming because from the start this war was meant by fundamentalists in favor of fundamentalisms (of all shapes and sizes - Islamists, Christian, Jewish... you name it).

The war in Iraq ? Five years of total success for George W. Bush.

I'm talking about the fundamentalist, not the POTUS. His Mission is Accomplished indeed : he served a second term and further destroyed the US democracy from the inside, he boosted the influence of Christian fundamentalism across the US and made possible its revival across Europe, he put creationism and theocracy back on the national and international maps... His one last task to perform ? The most important and beautiful to his own eyes : to ignite the mother of all wars between Israel and Iran in order to provoque the return of the Christ**.

Just to remind you things can go even worse than the combination of a military defeat, a moral collapse, and a massive recession.

If you happen to be a US citizen, you have the power to stop this. Unite and lobby your representatives, and vote wisely.

And remember this : of the 3 remaining major candidates for Bush's job (as a POTUS), only one had from day one a sound vision of what's happening in Iraq and the World beyond. And still now, only Barack Obama condemns this war as a wrong answer to terror and as a gift to the ennemies of democracy.


* and beyond, thanks to wonderful readers from America, France, Iran, Israel, Palestine, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and so many other wonderful places where such blogules as the "Universal Declaration of Independence from Fundamentalism" (20070809) have been quite popular.
** see "Iran : who wants war and why" (20070925)

Faith, lies and videotapes

Mitt Romney may lose the primaries because he's a Mormon supporting religious diversity and mutual respect*. Mike Huckabee may win the primaries because he's a moron supporting creationism and ID.

Guess what : the case for Iran was forged, intel cooked** - and the CIA even destroyed evidencies of Amerika's other wrongdoings : videotapes of torture sessions that could have revealed the faces of CIA agents. Because in Amerika, denouncing torture is a crime... unlike giving names of such weaselish peacemongers as Valerie Plame.

After signing so many pacts with the Devil, George W. Bush decides to write a letter to Kim Jong-il. It starts with "Dear Mr. Chairman", as if North Korea's dictator were a member of his base of "the Haves and the Have-mores". Dubya is just buying time : let me have a cleaner sheet with this atheist "pigmy" - I don't care if I lose face in Asia, all I want is you to let me finish this little crusade of mine in the Middle East before my mandate is over.

This is Amerika all right : this country has lost its values to the point it cannot even consider impeaching its most dangerous criminal.

* this absurd witch hunt is still on, and the reverse burden of proof remains to be implemented. As I pleaded before (see "Universal Declaration of Independence From Fundamentalism " - 20070809) : "The aim is not to please atheists and condemn believers but to expose fundamentalists, especially among those who are supposed to defend justice, education or democracy. You don’t want to ignite a witch hunt the McCarthy way (are you or have you ever been a fundamentalist ?), but rather to promote transparency over the hypocrisy and confusion fundamentalists are feeding upon. I’m asking for a much needed reverse burden of proof : nowadays, lawmakers are terrorized by fundamentalists and it should be the other way round. Instead of harassing the bulk of the candidates with questions regarding their private life, we should be forcing fundamentalists to come out in the open, give democracy the lead over the theocratic agenda. Lawmakers shouldn’t be compelled to demonstrate confusingly why they are good believers, they just should clearly tell that they don’t support fundamentalism and that, whatever they believe in, religion should not mix with politics in this country. Ultimately, if some people want religion to rule politics, let them found their own party like they do in other countries."
** nothing new under the sun (see "Iran : who wants war and why" - 20070925)

WWIII : playtime

"We've got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel. So I've told people that, if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon".

The man who said that is a fundamentalist leader who wants to destroy peace and democracy. The man who actually provided Iran with the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon : Bush's United States of America had research documents forwarded to Ahmadinejad's Iran, supposedly with the intention of leading that country to a wrong track, but we know better, don't we* ?

If you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing this man from remaining in power : impeach Bush and Cheney before it's too late.

The Democrats are having fun putting things in order with History (genocide against Kurds in Turkey, a medal of honor for the Dalai Lama), it's time for members of Congress who really love democracy to go one decisive and much needed step further.


* see "Iran : who wants war and why" (20070925). Note that this declaration follows critics by Putin on how Bush deals with Iran, and his warnings about murder attempts (see "Archduke Vladimir Putin's assassination attempt" (20071015).

Archduke Vladimir Putin's assassination attempt

You want to watch for false flags these days. Cheney and other trigger happy hawks are desperate to ignite World War III and deliberately putting out fires with gasoline. The yet-to-be-confirmed terror attack on Putin during his yet-to-be-started trip in Iran definitely smells like Dubya's dream team spirit.

All fundamentalist doomsayers know History and remember which incident ignited WWI : the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Este in Sarajevo. Back then, the Balkans were the hotspot for warmongers, and now, all the heat is on Tehran.

Vlad the Impaler knows how to orchestrate terror and is quite an expert himself in false flag operations. Russia's next lifetime Prime Minister is transferring the pressure, but off Ahmadinejad's shoulders and directly towards Bush : I know you are up to something but I cannot tell what nor when, I know you want to make people believe Iran is responsible for your dream war but I want the public to make no mistake : if anything happens to me or anyone else, you will be the one holding the smoking gun.