20090617

Party Unity My Ayatollah ?

As expected (see "Ahmadinejad Alienates Iranian People Today, Iranian Clerics Tomorrow ?"), Supreme Leader Khamenei ends up badly exposed in the front line after taking too carelessly sides in utterly controversial elections.

Khamenei eventually conceded a recount and theoretically, Guardian Council won't change the story. Except this is Khamenei's last chance to save face : at this stage, he can still dump his joker (Ahmadinejad). Unless he prefers to share his fate.

Either way, the system failed :

=> The official story doesn't stand mathematically or rather, appears too outstandingly perfect.
Beyond the elements in the equation already mentioned earlier, some pointed out the fact that when you compared votes for Mousavi and Ahmadinejad, the six official partial results released over election day drew too perfect a line. Farideh Farhi (University of Hawaii) nails the result as "pulled out of a hat"*.

=> A different story would mean a failure in the election process, ricocheting on the country's ruling class.

And either way, the Supreme Leader failed in his judgement and sense of timing. His supporters, but furthermore the people of influence who owe him their powers, must have taken notice. Khamenei caused a disruption that could prove fatal for the unity of Iran as a people as well as a political system.

Even Mousavi would have some trouble playing the Obama role, bringing back all parties together...

Party Unity My Ayatollah ?


* see "
Was Iran's election rigged? Here's what is known so far" (Christian Science Monitor 20090617).

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