It's over now. As expected*, even if Khamenei manages to crush the opposition, the Supreme Leader has totally lost the battle against himself.
Iran rulers are now led to the classic desperate straits of a fascist regime lacking confidence in their discredited leader. Since they cannot anymore pretend to bring the Iranian people together around the figures of Ahmadinejad or Khamenei, they forge a case for terror attacks on the father figure of the 1979 Revolution ("suicide bomber" near Khomeini Mausoleum), and fuel nationalism by mentioning foreign agent provocateurs**.
Official media exhibit demonstrators attacking policemen as a proof of their terrorist nature, but the very image of demonstrators defying the explicit orders of Ali Khamenei is in itself a major blow to the country's most important Ayatollah.
Terror and foreign agent provocateurs are a reality, though. But terror perpetrated by the State, foreign agents invited by the State (some Iranian policemen refuse to hit their own kind, some militiamen talked only Arabic and not Farsi...).
Official propaganda remains strong and powerful, but Iran's level of education and international overture makes it impossible to control minds as tightly as in other countries.
Mousavi brilliantly exposed Khamenei's contradictions, putting a true believer's mirror in front of his face and caricature of faith. Who is the true guardian of the spirit of the revolution ? Who is the true defensor of the Islamic Republic ? Who would be a true martyr if he were to die ? And on the other side, who is this imposteur posing as a Supreme Leader ? Who is this deviant liar ? Who must "face the consequences" ?
The stronger the repression, the quicker the implosion. Khamenei seems ready to go all the way and probably won't concede. The key now is to see who wants to join him as he fullfills his death wish.
* see "Ahmadinejad Alienates Iranian People Today, Iranian Clerics Tomorrow" and "Party Unity My Ayatollah ?"
** UK explicitely named by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. BBC's Jon Leyne asked to leave (BBC in Farsi too independent for the regime).
Showing posts with label Mir Hossein Mousavi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mir Hossein Mousavi. Show all posts
20090622
20090617
Party Unity My Ayatollah ?
As expected (see "Ahmadinejad Alienates Iranian People Today, Iranian Clerics Tomorrow ?"), Supreme Leader Khamenei ends up badly exposed in the front line after taking too carelessly sides in utterly controversial elections.
Khamenei eventually conceded a recount and theoretically, Guardian Council won't change the story. Except this is Khamenei's last chance to save face : at this stage, he can still dump his joker (Ahmadinejad). Unless he prefers to share his fate.
Either way, the system failed :
=> The official story doesn't stand mathematically or rather, appears too outstandingly perfect. Beyond the elements in the equation already mentioned earlier, some pointed out the fact that when you compared votes for Mousavi and Ahmadinejad, the six official partial results released over election day drew too perfect a line. Farideh Farhi (University of Hawaii) nails the result as "pulled out of a hat"*.
=> A different story would mean a failure in the election process, ricocheting on the country's ruling class.
And either way, the Supreme Leader failed in his judgement and sense of timing. His supporters, but furthermore the people of influence who owe him their powers, must have taken notice. Khamenei caused a disruption that could prove fatal for the unity of Iran as a people as well as a political system.
Even Mousavi would have some trouble playing the Obama role, bringing back all parties together...
Party Unity My Ayatollah ?
* see "Was Iran's election rigged? Here's what is known so far" (Christian Science Monitor 20090617).
Khamenei eventually conceded a recount and theoretically, Guardian Council won't change the story. Except this is Khamenei's last chance to save face : at this stage, he can still dump his joker (Ahmadinejad). Unless he prefers to share his fate.
Either way, the system failed :
=> The official story doesn't stand mathematically or rather, appears too outstandingly perfect. Beyond the elements in the equation already mentioned earlier, some pointed out the fact that when you compared votes for Mousavi and Ahmadinejad, the six official partial results released over election day drew too perfect a line. Farideh Farhi (University of Hawaii) nails the result as "pulled out of a hat"*.
=> A different story would mean a failure in the election process, ricocheting on the country's ruling class.
And either way, the Supreme Leader failed in his judgement and sense of timing. His supporters, but furthermore the people of influence who owe him their powers, must have taken notice. Khamenei caused a disruption that could prove fatal for the unity of Iran as a people as well as a political system.
Even Mousavi would have some trouble playing the Obama role, bringing back all parties together...
Party Unity My Ayatollah ?
* see "Was Iran's election rigged? Here's what is known so far" (Christian Science Monitor 20090617).
20090614
Ahmadinejad Alienates Iranian People Today, Iranian Clerics Tomorrow
Iran reformers were denied their "Yes We Can" moment or at least, a second round against the incumbent at the Presidential elections.
To Mahmoud Ahmadinejad I'd say "yes, you can" remain in power thanks to such disgraceful methods but no, you can't declare yourself a winner. Because somehow, you put an end to the 1979 Revolution and alienated, beyond half of the great Iranian people, the clerics who allowed this political suicide.
The problem with official election results is that they look too perfect to be true :
. Ahmadinejad's 62.63% are high enough to avoid controversies about a potential second round, and low enough to avoid embarrassing comparisons with dictator plebiscites in banana republics or stalinian states... or even Bush approval rates in Midland, TX.
. in a model democracy you need a significant opposition, and considering the success of his campaign as well as all polls published before election day, Mir-Hossein Mousavi couldn't decently claim less than one third of ballots. Done, but not by much (33.75%).
Great, but that leaves us with only a few votes to split between the remaining two candidates. And we want to keep the same 2 to 1 ratio in favor of conservatives against reformers... so be it : 1.73% for Roshen Rezaee and 0.85% for Mehdi Karroubi !
Don't get me wrong : I expected Ahmadinejad to come first at the first round, leveraging on his position at the entry point of elections, for the registration. He was bound to get a massive turnout in rural regions, struggling only against candidates with a local stronghold. But a second round was more than likely.
The turnout exploded (85% vs 62.6% in 2005), but Mousavi contributed a lot to it while mobilising younger generations. With 13.2 M votes, he weighs twice as much as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani at the first round four years ago (the old leader campaigned for him). But Ahmadinejad's score seems extreme (even in rural areas - 75% according to the IRNA / Islamic Republic News Agency), and Karroubi's simply impossible : 300,000 ballots for a man who claimed over 5 millions at the 2005 presidential elections and was expected to finish significantly ahead of Rezaee ?
In a press conference broadcasted live on international channels (NB: CNN winning over BBC for the Farsi to English interpretation), Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli exposed the smoking gun : in the same speech, he delivered extremely precise results at the national level, and announced further delays in the publication of regional results.
Officially, the announcement has to be done by each region, but the message seems obvious :
- leave us some time to give our "top down" decree some illusion of "bottom up" consistency.
- there will necessarily be some inconsistencies hard to swallow for the opposition (you can't explain quantum physics with classic physics), but we would consider them minor and local, and they wouldn't threaten the national results
Always the vigilant Juan Cole* already pointed out a few aberrations : "Ahmadinejad's numbers were fairly standard across Iran's provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations", the Lur Karroubi failing in Luristan, the Azeri Mir-Hossein Mousavi in Azerbaïdjan... Mahsouli did announce a victory of the latter in Tehran, though.
Unsurprisingly, opposition turned into resistance as soon as the first results were published.
Violence, arrests, censorship... unsurprisingly, Ahmadinejad confirmed his fundamentalist nature : his main targets are neither Israeli nor Americans but Iranian moderates.
His 2005 victory was already a felony but here, the clash seems final. Something is broken for good, and beyond the trust between some Iranians and their president.
Dragging along with him down to illegitimacy the clerics who let him go this far, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may simply have put an end to the 1979 Revolution :
- as a former Prime Minister of Khomeini, Mousavi was paradoxically in the best position to extend the regime's legitimacy even as he pushed reforms
- by alienating Iran youth, religious leaders deprived themselves of a future
- worse : their destiny is now intimately linked to a man who is not even one of them. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei cannot hide anymore behind this joker : he is more than ever responsible for whatever Ahmadinejad does.
- Ahmadinejad wins but the cleric system loses - exactly like the 2004 US elections, when Bush's victory meant the end of the GOP
This President and this system cannot go on forever together and a divorce seems ineluctable. And the more Ayatollahs stick to their suicidal posture, the nastier the separation will be.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has never looks so strong, nor Iran so weak since 1979.
Exactly as the world needs a stable and consistent Iran.
Of course, repression can succeed in the short term, but Iran may have soon to choose between the unity of the country and the survival of a regime. Right now, Ahmadinejad is compelled to enter one way or another unknown territories : even only in apparence, he must somewhat offer some positive change in the balance. And the easiest path seems on the international stage.
* see "Informed Comment" : "Stealing the Iranian Election"
---
also on blogules (V.F.)
To Mahmoud Ahmadinejad I'd say "yes, you can" remain in power thanks to such disgraceful methods but no, you can't declare yourself a winner. Because somehow, you put an end to the 1979 Revolution and alienated, beyond half of the great Iranian people, the clerics who allowed this political suicide.
The problem with official election results is that they look too perfect to be true :
. Ahmadinejad's 62.63% are high enough to avoid controversies about a potential second round, and low enough to avoid embarrassing comparisons with dictator plebiscites in banana republics or stalinian states... or even Bush approval rates in Midland, TX.
. in a model democracy you need a significant opposition, and considering the success of his campaign as well as all polls published before election day, Mir-Hossein Mousavi couldn't decently claim less than one third of ballots. Done, but not by much (33.75%).
Great, but that leaves us with only a few votes to split between the remaining two candidates. And we want to keep the same 2 to 1 ratio in favor of conservatives against reformers... so be it : 1.73% for Roshen Rezaee and 0.85% for Mehdi Karroubi !
Don't get me wrong : I expected Ahmadinejad to come first at the first round, leveraging on his position at the entry point of elections, for the registration. He was bound to get a massive turnout in rural regions, struggling only against candidates with a local stronghold. But a second round was more than likely.
The turnout exploded (85% vs 62.6% in 2005), but Mousavi contributed a lot to it while mobilising younger generations. With 13.2 M votes, he weighs twice as much as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani at the first round four years ago (the old leader campaigned for him). But Ahmadinejad's score seems extreme (even in rural areas - 75% according to the IRNA / Islamic Republic News Agency), and Karroubi's simply impossible : 300,000 ballots for a man who claimed over 5 millions at the 2005 presidential elections and was expected to finish significantly ahead of Rezaee ?
In a press conference broadcasted live on international channels (NB: CNN winning over BBC for the Farsi to English interpretation), Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli exposed the smoking gun : in the same speech, he delivered extremely precise results at the national level, and announced further delays in the publication of regional results.
Officially, the announcement has to be done by each region, but the message seems obvious :
- leave us some time to give our "top down" decree some illusion of "bottom up" consistency.
- there will necessarily be some inconsistencies hard to swallow for the opposition (you can't explain quantum physics with classic physics), but we would consider them minor and local, and they wouldn't threaten the national results
Always the vigilant Juan Cole* already pointed out a few aberrations : "Ahmadinejad's numbers were fairly standard across Iran's provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations", the Lur Karroubi failing in Luristan, the Azeri Mir-Hossein Mousavi in Azerbaïdjan... Mahsouli did announce a victory of the latter in Tehran, though.
Unsurprisingly, opposition turned into resistance as soon as the first results were published.
Violence, arrests, censorship... unsurprisingly, Ahmadinejad confirmed his fundamentalist nature : his main targets are neither Israeli nor Americans but Iranian moderates.
His 2005 victory was already a felony but here, the clash seems final. Something is broken for good, and beyond the trust between some Iranians and their president.
Dragging along with him down to illegitimacy the clerics who let him go this far, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may simply have put an end to the 1979 Revolution :
- as a former Prime Minister of Khomeini, Mousavi was paradoxically in the best position to extend the regime's legitimacy even as he pushed reforms
- by alienating Iran youth, religious leaders deprived themselves of a future
- worse : their destiny is now intimately linked to a man who is not even one of them. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei cannot hide anymore behind this joker : he is more than ever responsible for whatever Ahmadinejad does.
- Ahmadinejad wins but the cleric system loses - exactly like the 2004 US elections, when Bush's victory meant the end of the GOP
This President and this system cannot go on forever together and a divorce seems ineluctable. And the more Ayatollahs stick to their suicidal posture, the nastier the separation will be.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has never looks so strong, nor Iran so weak since 1979.
Exactly as the world needs a stable and consistent Iran.
Of course, repression can succeed in the short term, but Iran may have soon to choose between the unity of the country and the survival of a regime. Right now, Ahmadinejad is compelled to enter one way or another unknown territories : even only in apparence, he must somewhat offer some positive change in the balance. And the easiest path seems on the international stage.
* see "Informed Comment" : "Stealing the Iranian Election"
---
also on blogules (V.F.)
20090518
India : no change means change
Congress Party claimed victory in the Indian election marathon, strengthening the positions of Manmohan Singh, party leader Sonia Gandhi and even her son Rahul Gandhi. A crushing desillusion for radicals from the nationalists and fundamentalist sides.
Yes, moderates can win. Even after Mumbai*. Even after a Bush-Cheney victory at the 2009 Israeli elections.
Maybe Indians are smarter and wiser than Israeli. Maybe they are simply more sensitive to demagogy that promises a more humane development instead of demagogy that promises more inhumane treatments. Go figure.
Mir Hossein Mousavi Khamenech is definitely smarter and wiser than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A reformer with the experience of a conservative war Prime Minister, he would get rid of Iran's Moral Police, restore some basic women's rights, open the media to private entrepreneurs, and put the country back on the diplomatic map. A poor score of Hezbollah in upcoming elections in Lebanon could be a good sign for reform in Iran.
Stability and calm in such big countries as India and Iran could radiate around, even as Pakistan and Sri Lanka threaten to fuel future fires while crushing Taliban or Tamil Tigers.
We've been used to electoral calendars overwhelmed with bad news and this year already provided its share, but should the trend be confirmed, even Israel would be forced to reconsider its suicidal stance.
* see "Lessons from Mumbai ?"
Yes, moderates can win. Even after Mumbai*. Even after a Bush-Cheney victory at the 2009 Israeli elections.
Maybe Indians are smarter and wiser than Israeli. Maybe they are simply more sensitive to demagogy that promises a more humane development instead of demagogy that promises more inhumane treatments. Go figure.
Mir Hossein Mousavi Khamenech is definitely smarter and wiser than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A reformer with the experience of a conservative war Prime Minister, he would get rid of Iran's Moral Police, restore some basic women's rights, open the media to private entrepreneurs, and put the country back on the diplomatic map. A poor score of Hezbollah in upcoming elections in Lebanon could be a good sign for reform in Iran.
Stability and calm in such big countries as India and Iran could radiate around, even as Pakistan and Sri Lanka threaten to fuel future fires while crushing Taliban or Tamil Tigers.
We've been used to electoral calendars overwhelmed with bad news and this year already provided its share, but should the trend be confirmed, even Israel would be forced to reconsider its suicidal stance.
* see "Lessons from Mumbai ?"
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