On Obama's visit to Korea - in Asia Pacific Bulletin

The East West Center, an education and research center established by the US Congress in 1960, just published my piece "Obama’s Visit to Korea: An Unwavering US-ROK Alliance Amidst Regional Tensions" in its Asia Pacific Bulletin No 260:

EastWestCenter.org/publications/obama%E2%80%99s-visit-korea-unwavering-us-rok-alliance-amidst-regional-tensions

Also on EWC's Asia Matters for America's website*:  
AsiaMattersForAmerica.org/korea/obamas-visit-to-korea-an-unwavering-us-rok-alliance-amidst-regional-tensions. 

*

Also on Obama's visit to Korea, with a greater focus on the Imperial Japan sexual slavery issue (also known under the euphemism 'Comfort Women'), I wrote two posts in a less diplomatic vein on Seoul Village:

• So, did Obama visit his own Yeswecan Shrine?
• Obama between toppling Japan and sunken-hearted Korea

blogules 2014
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!! and Twitter (@stephanemot, @blogules, @theseoulvillage)

Follow Us

* on this EWC initiative, see "KORUS chorus" on Seoul Village

Moving pictures

I've uploaded a couple of short vids on my YouTube channel (youtube.com/user/stephanemot). Actually, I rather downloaded them from my memory because they keep haunting me. It might happen from time to time since I take thousands of pictures every year - awful shots, I know, but these slideshows only last a few seconds.

• I shot these black and white - and rather dark, I reckon - pictures during the noughties in Seoul. Some of them already appeared in my dragedies:

• More colors in this recent series, but not much joy either - my last tribute to a Seoul neighborhood about to be destroyed (see "In memoriam Samdong Samgeori, Gyonam-dong" on Seoul Village):

ADDENDUM: while I was on a roll, I uploaded them on Vimeo as well (new page: vimeo.com/stephanemot).

blogules 2013
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!! and Twitter (@stephanemot, @blogules)

The Republic of Korea is under attack. From within.

After the shameful termination of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission Korea, and after the flabbergasting removal of history from school curriculum, yet another outrageous victory for revisionists in Korea: the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology gave in to a Creationist lobby, and made possible the publication of high school texbooks where examples of evolution have been removed.
This incredible story, "South Korea surrenders to creationist demands", was published earlier this month in Nature:

A special purpose vehicle of the Korea Association for Creation Research* (kacr.or.kr), the revisionist lobby which pulled the strings didn't try to masquerade behind an Intelligent-Design-like smokescreen: it's even named the Society for Textbook Revise! Note how STR's website (str.or.kr) apes its US creationist counterparts:

Letting Creationism, the very negation of science and education and one of the worst enemies of democracy, dictate the contents of textbooks is undoubtedly the most profound disgrace imaginable for any Ministry of Education.

But here in Korea, that's the ultimate abomination.

This is Korea, the country of King Sejong, a wise statesmen who advocated education and science.

This is Korea, a country victim of revisionist texbooks in Japan, where the extreme right, though very small in members, has considerable power over national politics and manages to keep the whole population in the dark regarding the country's troubled past.

Once again**, it seems that Korea is under attack from its worst enemies, the ones from within. A minority of extremists who dream of copying the Japanese "model" and to rule over the past and the future of the country.

And once again, these impostors are not nationalists: they want the destruction of Korea as a republic and as a democracy, and they are the best allies of the impostors who, in Japan or in China, multiply the same kind of provocations to fuel mutual hatred and extremism across the region.

Across the aisle, true Korean nationalists, true partisans of democracy and of the republic must defend the nation against the impostors who try to destroy it: expose and condemn their impostures, prevent revisionist textbooks from being published, and restore the values that make Korea a great country.

Wake up Korea!

blogules 2012 (initially published on SeoulVillage: "State-condoned creationism in Korea? A cold-blooded murder against King Sejong")
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!! Seoul Village 2012
NEW : follow Seoul Village on Facebook and Twitter

* Of course, "creation" and "research" are antinomic, but precisely, the whole concept of creationism is an insult to science and education. If believing in a creator is perfectly respectable, "Creationism" is pure forgery, an imposture that has nothing to do with science, and even nothing to do with religion: the agenda is political and ultimately, it's about replacing democracy with theocracy, and about replacing religion with fundamentalism.
** They seem to grow bolder by the day, and the multiplication of such provocations (see recently MBC's xenophobic video - "Still no apology from MBC, and more provocations on the Chinese front") is probably not a coincidence in this election year.

Mobile Virtual Nuclear Operators

As expected, North Korea set the agenda ahead of the 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit (see focus on Seoul Village), this time by announcing for April a 'satellite' launch in the general direction of (Japan, thank Kim The Third for small mercies) the East China Sea.

Shooting Southwards doesn't make sense if you want to optimize a satellite launch and leverage the Earth's rotation, or in the case of North Korea, if you want to minimize the risks of casualties, but of course, that's not the aim of the game. And speaking of games: sweeping such a big fat "dolsot" curling stone all the way down to the hottest spot of contention between Korea and Japan*... my oh my, what a smart way of piggybacking international conflicts! You know, like a M-VNO entering a market without rolling out its own wireless network? These guys are inventing low cost dictatorship!

As is often the case, this latest crisis can be interpreted as the North Korean idea of a private joke between what passes for the executive power there and the local army (I know, these days, distinguishing one from the other is the equivalent of a hairsplitting contest in a Buddhist monastery, particularly now that Kim Elvis has met his maker - not Kim Il-sung, the other one, if he?she?it? exists). The message? In a nutshell: swallow this bitter pill, willya? In extenso: Okaaay guys, we just reached an agreement with the Evil Empire of the United Rogue States of America about our nuclear activities, but look: we just needed the suckers to send us some more bags of rice for you, because there's only you in our lives - "Army first", remember? And to make sure we want to follow your "Juche Line"**, we'll make both the "Sunshine Line" and the "Beijing Line" angry by shooting our rocket (oops, 'launching our satellite') toward the East China Sea – heck, while we're at it, we could even crash Taiwan's party as well...

... Where was I?

In Gwonnong-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul, of course. This very morning. At the top floor of GCS International Building, enjoying a glorious view on Changdeokgung (to my left), and Jongmyo (to my right). What better location for a seminar on North Korean nukes than the headquarters of a peace-oriented NGO (GCS), with a view on two key symbols of power in 'Joseon' times: in peace and harmony on one side, with the deceased on the other...***

With so much at stake, we have no choice but to try and be cautiously optimistic. And to keep humor alive. As Woody Allen put it during his intensive training of Kim Jong-un: "More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly".

Among today's panelists, John E. ENDICOTT (President, Woosong University) was the closest to experience a near-death 'Dr Strangelove' situation: this US Air Force veteran told us how, at the peak of the Cuban missile crisis, he ended up in a bunker with the top brass announcing that doom was likely to be ignited in 20 minutes...

In these really tricky times, I'm looking forward to Obama's visit of the DMZ, a potential 'jeoneun Hanguk saram imnida' / 'Mr Kim, tear down that wall' moment. Not a game changer, but a simple message: the time of reconciliation will eventually come, and the sooner the better, but it takes a dialog between both Korean halves, starting right now.

Last year, South Korea was reconsidering its own tough-cop approach, which proved rather counter-productive... except maybe from the Chinese point of view (see "Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"). Today, our panelists were more interested in how far the North was ready to engage in collaboration.

Hosted by GCS International, this Asia Institute Seminar focused on "Revisiting Nuclear Safety and Nuclear Security in North Korea"****. Hard to expect full collaboration and transparency from the most secretive country on the touchiest of materials, with a nuclear industry globally in damage control mode ever since the tsunami hit the fan in Fukushima, and days after South Korea unveiled an embarrassing cover-up following an incident in its own nuclear facilities (see "Twelve Minutes in Bballi-Bballiland"). And Sharon SQUASSONI, an expert in proliferation prevention who's visited the North several times, thinks that North Koreans themselves may be a bit too confident about how much they know about their own level of security.

You'd think the collaboration between Japan and its neighbors would have improved after last year's fiasco but it turns out that no, little or no progress has been made, and communication is already poor within an archipelago technically cut in two (electricity itself cannot circulate between West - 60 Hz - and East - 50 Hz!), and where private operators are not compelled to disclose key indicators as is the case in the US. If even close and friendly neighbors don't trust each other, no wonder the general public show doubt and defiance toward governments and the nuclear industry in general. Former Minister of the Environment KIM Myung-ja stressed the power of activists and the need for transparency.

After the Daichi mess, daily measurements of radioactivity from the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety brought much needed clarity to the debate and today, I welcomed the precious insights from their principal researcher: a technical expert with a sound approach of the human and cultural factors, Dr KIM Sok-chul underlined the differences between security and safety, or between the perception of events, their comprehension, and their prevention. He also revealed that the risk of human errors was maximal with knowledge based behaviors (compared to ruled based or skilled based systems). The same could be said about finance and neural scoring systems but enough scary stories for today.

Actually, this very gloomy period could prove rich in opportunities. Instead of the usual blame game and finger pointing at one rogue state, both Koreas, China, and Japan could humbly seat at the same table with a simple task: we're all in this together, as neighbors and fellow (at least) civil nuclear powers, and we are all facing criticisms for various reasons. Let's share about it, and find ways to be more efficient for the next emergency. To make it simpler, let's keep Russia and the US out of this*****. We won't judge each other, just make sure we handle things better than last year. Maybe, as trust and confidence grows, we'll share more information, but let's start this with modest yet vital objectives.

Since the audience was rather small, everybody could chime in, so I suggested this sort of a NEAR (North East Asia Response) task force. Earlier, Scott SNYDER, who deplored the US failure to prevent vertical proliferation, had proposed a more direct offer to North Korea: you want to launch a satellite? Great: we can do it for you, and safely. Of course they'll refuse (it's all about controlling the propeller, and not for satellites), but bringing the discussions to new planes may work better than - say - Sergey Labrov's basic reset button.

blogules 2012 - initially published on Seoul Village ("NK and nukes: back to the (dolsot curling) stone age?")
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!

* see "Ieodo: I smell a fish", or the controversial construction of a US Navy base at the Southwestern tip of Jeju-do. FYI: in Korea, 'dolsot' dishes are usually served in stone bowls heated directly on charcoal.

** if you're a bit lost with the different characters, see the previous episodes of our NK drama, including "Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"

*** Jongmyo and Changdeokgung are two beautiful, adjacent, UNESCO listed sites in central Seoul, built by the Joseon dynasty that founded the capital and ruled until the Japanese occupation. Note that neither North Koreans nor South Koreans call the country 'Korea': the former use "Joseon", the latter "Hanguk" (the nation of the Han people).

**** "Revisiting Nuclear Safety and Nuclear Security in North Korea" (Asia Institute Seminar) 2012/03/22:
- Introduction: CHO Cheol-je (Secretary General, GCS International)
- Opening remarks: John E. ENDICOTT (President, Woosong University)
- Panelists: Sharon SQUASSONI (Director, Proliferation Prevention Program, CSIS), Scott A. SNYDER (Senior Fellow for Korea Studies, Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy, Council on Foreign Relations), KIM Sok-chul (Principal Researcher, Head, Radiological Emergency and Security Preparedness Department, KINS - Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety), KIM Myung-ja (Chairwoman, Green 21 Forum / Former Minister of the Environment)
- Moderator: Emanuel PASTREICH (Director, The Asia Institute / Professor, Humanitas College, Kyung Hee University)
On the picture, left to right: Ms. KIM, Mr. KIM, Ms. SQUASSONI, Mr. SNYDER

***** anyway, as Dr KIM pointed out, 20 years from now, 50% of the world's nuclear reactors will be located in the region.

1,000th week of shame for Japan

The young girl is sitting on a chair, a bird on her left shoulder. Her sad eyes seek an answer from the building across the street, to no avail. This time again, the Japanese Embassy remains silent. Or rather, it keeps protesting against the statue of the girl recently erected across the street as a reminder: the Korean victims of sexual slavery are still expecting justice and official apologies from the Japanese Government.

Today, the young girl was surrounded by a couple of old friends: a few surviving 'comfort women' who are now in their 80s or 90s. They live in the House of Sharing, a residence and museum in Gyeonggi-do, and come every Wednesday to protest. Not against the statue, but with it, and for justice.

Today, these halmoni were surrounded by hundreds of friends: longtime activists and supporters of the cause, or simple citizens of the World from all ages, all origins, all beliefs.

Today, December 14, 2011, marked the 1,000th Wednesday of protest since January 8, 1992, and masses met in front of the Embassy in Junghak-dong. Wiping away their tears and facing again the camera: they've overcome shame for 20 years, and since then more than ever, the shame is on Japanese leaders.



This is not about nationalism, and this is certainly not about Korea vs Japan, but about Japan vs Justice, and about Japan vs its own future. Crimes were committed and victims simply expect justice*. Japan must face history in order to face the future, and its leaders cannot hide the truth to Japanese citizens any longer.

I've said the same thing about other issues: this is also about saving Japan. And if I joined the protesters, it's also because I love Japan and because I can't accept to see a minority of die hard ultra-conservatives setting a corrupt agenda and betraying the Japanese people.

And to Korean ultra-nationalists who try to hijack this case for their own corrupt agenda, I say: clean your own mess first, and restore the Truth and Reconciliation Commission***.

Help the victims and support the cause:

House of Sharing / Nanum : houseofsharing.org / nanum.org
Join the Facebook group
NB (reminder): until Friday, the House of Sharing's International Outreach Team is organizing near Hongdae a multi-media art exhibition dealing with issues of sexual slavery, human trafficking, and violence and oppression against women, and including film projections, works from halmonies...*

blogules 2011 (initially published on Seoul Village: "One Thousand Wednesdays")

* Justice means:
1. That the Japanese government admits the compulsory drafting of Korean women as Military Sexual Slavery by Japan.
2. That an official apology will be made for this.
3. That all the atrocities will be fully disclosed.
4. That a Memorial will be built for the victims.
5. That the survivors or their bereaved families will be compensated
6. That the facts and truth about Military Sexual Slavery by Japan will be taught in Japanese history classes so that such inhumanities are not repeated.
7. Punish the war criminals.

** until Friday at Cafe Anthracite (Hapjeong-dong 357-6, Mapo-gu, Seoul, South Korea, near Sangsu station)

*** see previous episodes, including "TRCK : families of victims demand essential follow-up", "TRCK lost in translation or lost in transition ?", "Achievements and Tasks of TRCK's Activities", "Truth and Reconciliation : which model for Korea ?"

The K-pop bubble

Pop, that's the sound of a bubble when it bursts. Not your usual, big fat speculative bubble, no : rather the cute, ephemeral, soap edifice of a kid.

But K-pop is not much of a child's play : here, no room for innocence, chance, or unexpected wind twists. In this overformatted industry, creativity only exists in the way products are marketed, with a focus on viral and addictive gimmicks.

In a certain way, K-pop mirrors Korean society in this early IIIrd millenium, but not in its most sustainable aspects : visual and auditive over-stimulations including immediate reward systems, a dystopia founded on extreme competition and superhuman training leading to the negation of nature and systematic plastic surgery, mushrooming virtual communities offering the security of belonging without any ideology-related stress...

Yet, nothing new under the sun. As far as music is concerned, of course, but also regarding the business model : you simply have to adapt classic boy / girl bands recipes, and to progressively inject some of Hollywood majors' tricks to lead a young and docile audience along the slowest and most controled maturation process. SM Entertainment & co plan to alter their product mixes step by step, so that consumers don't churn as they grow older. Longer lasting K-pop groups have already developped embryos of proto-intellectual alibis, illusions of brainwaves because you don't want to believe your favorite singer is "a mental midget with the IQ of a fencepost"*.

Does it sell ? You betcha : as soon as the first contagion signs showed in Europe, K-pop marketers rushed to Paris with their whole Barnum.

Not exactly the kind of cultural bridge I dreamt between Asia's and Europe's heralds of cultural diversity... But I'm getting used to it : a couple of years ago, I was crucified by Uzbek or Japanese Bae Yong-joon fans because I deplored the way 'dramas' were promoted overseas, or the vacuity of Yonsamania (sorry but Korea shouldn't be summed up in that Hallyuwoodian caricature of Michael Jackson).

Hopefully, theses fads won't last. And something positive can even grow from them : the most daring fans will reach deeper into Korean culture, its language, and its fantastic cuisine**.

blogules 2011 - see also "La bulle K-pop" on blogules in French, "K-popping bubbles" on SeoulVillage.com (join Seoul Vilage on Facebook, on Twitter).

* in the musical universe, Tom Waits is probably the ultimate anti-K-pop element : an ugly fella with a rough voice and crafting incredible songs by himself (this line belongs to "The piano has been drinking (not me)", best served in the album "Bounced Checks").
** another cultural domain where the Korean government has been promoting exports a not always subtle way...

We need to talk about Kim

Hours after the shelling of Yeonpyeong island by North Korea (probably part of Kim Jong-un's training as the next mad leader - KIM the Third obviously wanted to be part of the South's naval exercises), the promotional campaign for "Korea, a good neighbor", was still playing on CNN.

Seoul's official reaction to this new provocation is likely to be one notch down the nice cop scale used after the Cheonan Tragedy (earlier this very strange year, also ridden with skirmishes). Some wrists shall even be slapped. And of course, hectoliters of tears shall flow.

"A good neighbor" ? This side of the DMZ, most certainly.

But to paraphrase Lionel Shriver's book*, "We need to talk about KIM" sooner or later.

blogules 2010 (first published on Seoul Village)

* "We need to talk about Kevin"

Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Korea Under Revision ?

According to OhMyNews*, translators are considering suing Lee Young-Jo, the new President of Korea's Truth and Reconciliation Commission**, for defamation.

One of the first decisions of Lee Young-Jo was to ban the English brochure published by the TRCK in March 2009 to present its recent achievements ("Truth and Reconciliation - Activities of the Past Three Years") because "it is biased and the English is incorrect". Translators deny the charges and OhMyNews couldn't get any example of translation errors from the organization.

Since I'm not a native English speaker, I cannot judge what's grammatically correct... but "the Park military junta introduced an extreme right-wing Fascist regime into Korean society during a time when the nation lacked thoughts, values, and awareness of democracy" may sound politically incorrect. I reckon the cover of the report featuring civilian massacres could also hurt the feelings of ultra-conservatives who would prefer to keep the lid on such inconvenient truths (not to mention the feelings of grieving families).

Maybe Lee Young-Jo, a TRCK commissioner since 2005 and a fluent English speaker, saw the document under a different light after his nomination... I wouldn't dare imagining that his very nomination, under a conservative government, was part of a scheme to undermine the formidable achievements of the TRCK under his predecessors. Yet, several medias point out Mr Lee's own conservative credentials as an eminent leader of the New Right movement***, and a SisaIN article even evokes a possible sabotage of the organization, and past efforts from the New Right to revise history textbooks****.

If this book ban proves to be actually an act of censorship, I wonder what kind of changes could be already happening within this up to now irreproachable organization...

As we saw earlier, the TRCK did such a good job in performing its missions that it was politically impossible for ultra-conservatives to put an end to it. If their intention is to discreetly sabotage it, it is bound to backfire and at the end of the day, President Lee Myung-bak will have to make a choice : maintain the TRCK on its original tracks, or let the discredit and international uproar hurt his own image.

blogules 2010 - initially published on Seoul Village ("TRCK lost in translation or lost in transition ?").
=> all posts related to TRCK.

* "Translators upset by 'New Right Truth and Reconciliation Commission'" ("번역자들, '뉴라이트 진실화해위'에 뿔났다" - 20100113 updated 20100114).
** we mentioned his nomination last December in "Achievements and Tasks of TRCK's Activities".
*** Last month I was a little bit disturbed by his resume but didn't find any website about these organizations : Lee Young-jo was President of the Capitalism Economy and Nationalism Research Center and Secretary General of the Citizens United for Better Society
**** "New Right received by past Commission" ("뉴라이트가 접수한 과거사정리위원회" - SisaIn 20091221)

Hatoyama's Christmas gift to Japanese extreme right

As a Christmas gift to local ultranationalists, the Japanese Government decided to give another hard push in favor of bold revisionism. As usual, school textbooks are used as a vehicle for promoting the idea that Dokdo belongs to the Great Empire. And as usual, the Korean Government denounced the infamy (see "Seoul hits Tokyo's new Dokdo stance" - JoongAng Daily 20091226).

This comes not as a surprise but as a disappointment : Hatoyama really seemed to be willing to crush the last throes of fascism in the archipelago, his aides even leaking proofs that Dokdo didn't belonged to Japan (see "The end of Japanese imperialism"). More recently, there were even rumors that the Emperor himself would visit Korea in 2010 to formulate official apologies for past wrongs.

That made me quite nervous : last time the Emperor made a move towards reconciliation, extreme right activists would push as hard as they could, fueling mutual hatred across the region, including China and Russia.

Actually, I'd been expecting this kind of provocations, lately : Hatoyama is much weaker than a few months ago and yes, that's the economy, stupid (stimulus programs won't last eternally and 2010 seems poised to be a tough year). Obviously, his government badly needs support from people he disagrees with.

Once again, if Dokdo doesn't belong to Japan (and that's been indisputably settled for good by the official documents leaked earlier this year), talking about Takeshima has always been about Japanese politics : claiming the islets, visiting Yasukuni, rewriting history books... each provocation comes at a time the ruler is in a defensive position and needs political support at home.

Japanese politicians keep fooling their own citizens and it's high time to expose this dangerous imposture.

blogules 2009 - initially published in Seoul Village ("Revisionist schoolbooks : change has not come to Japan")

North Korea's lost Won

This is not Pyongyang's first reevaluation, but it's the first time the regime acts so recklessly in that matter.

The population was granted one week to replace their old wons with the new and improved currency. Failure to do so would leave them with almost worthless notes (1 new NK won = 100 old NK won).

Officially, the aim of the game is to crack down abuses from people perverted by capitalism, or at least the little of it which made its way into what was left of the local economy. No one will come with a lot of money without good explanations.

But the actual profiteers of NK's corrupt system (in particular the nomenklatura) already changed their cash into US dollars or Chinese yuans, well ahead of the announcement. The only victims will be those who will opt for transparency.

This measure follows closings of parallel markets, safety valves for populations every day more left to their own devices... or rather lack of.

According to South Korean medias, the country would be on the verge of revolt, and streets littered with old bank notes deliberately torn in the middle of Kim Jong-il's portraits. Military forces received the order to shoot at sight anyone who tries to escape the last Stalinian paradise.

If Pyongyang authorities really want to accelerate takeover from China*, that's a smart move...

blogules 2009 - also on blogules V.F. ("La Coree du Nord evalue mal les effets de sa reevaluation") and on Seoul Village ("North Korea's lost Won")

* see "KIM Jong-il's bridge to nowhere"

The end of Japanese imperialism

Change has definitely come to Japan. As expected*, Yukio Hatoyama is trying to do the right thing by puting an end to all sick nationalist revivals. And the new P.M. seems to be willing to act quickly, going at the root.

Imperialist nostalgists claim Kuril Islands and Dokdo as theirs ? "An unidentified senior Japanese government official" releases the proof that they don't belong to Japan**.

In the midst of an APEC summit, Japan decides to set the record straight and lead the region the most noble way.

As Barack Obama tours the continent, Japan rejects as false the choice between its own History and its own ideals.

blogules
2009 - initially published on Seoul Village : "According to Japanese law, Dokdo is not Japanese".

* see "A Common History", a dramatic change since "Claiming Dokdo as Takeshima equals claiming Seoul as Gyeongseong"

** see "Japanese Document Shows Dokdo as Foreign Territory" (Chosun Ilbo 20091116) : "Japan's Ministry of Finance issued a notice document numbered 654 on Aug. 15, 1946, a year after Korean independence, that says Dokdo is foreign soil along with Korea, Taiwan, Sakhalin, the Kuril Islands and the South Sea Islands".

As if

The Dow Jones Industrial hit the 10k mark, again.

This is not the same index : General Motors or Citigroup Incorporated have gone after September 2008 (AIG left the DJI a little bit earlier). And this is not the same Bank Of America either...
So basically a makeshift index passes a symbolic mark. So what ? This new bubble is simply not sustainable. And Mr Jones cannot make much dough out of industries which often have yet to evolve.

Asia is booming, again.

And real estate bubbles keep inflating in South Korea, Hong Kong, or China. Hu Jintao wants to secure positions for his friends before the 2012 regime reshuffle, and Beijing decided to sacrifice long term economic soundness for short term growth. Seoul also refuses to deflate the housing bubble for fear of accelerating the second dip. LEE Myung-bak knows the demand will grow during the construction of all programs launched before 2008, but hopes that the hard landing will not happen under his "sit and watch".

Financial institutions are racking up profits, again.

Part of their garbage has been collected, but they keep doing business as usual : destroying value in the long term to maximize short term gains, focusing innovation on ways of bending laws, sucking money from places where investments are really needed. Total crap.

...

Three years after the downturn, one year after The Crisis, we are somehow still in denial (see "This is not a financial crisis"), and the same diagnosis applies.

There's still a lot of greedy money out there : unable to find exciting guaranteed returns (closer to 5% than to the 15-20% they were used to - not enough to hedge inflation which is bound to come back with a vengence), investors keep fueling bubbles in stocks, commodities, gold, currencies, private equities, and even real estate.

Regulation remains a dirty word and everything is done to undermine collective and comprehensive efforts to reform the system.

The question is not if but when the next wake up call comes. Before the end of the year ? H1 2010 ? Will the illusion even last until 2011 ? Will everything collapse big time in 2012 ?

Yet I'm still confident : in the long term, we are to evolve from free market to fair market.

blogules 2009

India : no change means change

Congress Party claimed victory in the Indian election marathon, strengthening the positions of Manmohan Singh, party leader Sonia Gandhi and even her son Rahul Gandhi. A crushing desillusion for radicals from the nationalists and fundamentalist sides.

Yes, moderates can win. Even after Mumbai*. Even after a Bush-Cheney victory at the 2009 Israeli elections.

Maybe Indians are smarter and wiser than Israeli. Maybe they are simply more sensitive to demagogy that promises a more humane development instead of demagogy that promises more inhumane treatments. Go figure.

Mir Hossein Mousavi Khamenech is definitely smarter and wiser than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A reformer with the experience of a conservative war Prime Minister, he would get rid of Iran's Moral Police, restore some basic women's rights, open the media to private entrepreneurs, and put the country back on the diplomatic map. A poor score of Hezbollah in upcoming elections in Lebanon could be a good sign for reform in Iran.

Stability and calm in such big countries as India and Iran could radiate around, even as Pakistan and Sri Lanka threaten to fuel future fires while crushing Taliban or Tamil Tigers.

We've been used to electoral calendars overwhelmed with bad news and this year already provided its share, but should the trend be confirmed, even Israel would be forced to reconsider its suicidal stance.


* see "Lessons from Mumbai ?"

White, red and pink blogules to the World in 2020

The CER (Centre for European Reform ) and Accenture recently waged a debate about the World in 2020, partly fueled by Mark Leonard's essay "Divided world: The struggle for supremacy". The democracy vs autocracy divide sounds a little bit white vs black to me, and I may add a few other key structural changes within :
- America enjoying good demography dynamics but becoming more monolithic, more focused on itself, welcoming fewer influences from abroad. Growing old a different way.
- At the opposite of this Mainland Amerika, China is embracing its own diversity. Chinese imperialism is no more about spreading a unique monolithic model but about a much smarter pervasiveness, leveraging on all minorities instead of crushing cultural diversity (ie China intends to build the core of Koreanhood on its very soil, claims the Koguryo cultural heritage, and position the Korean peninsula as a motherland's satellite).
- What I call "Asianitude" keeps growing. Asian countries developping intra-asian relationships beyond the traditional bilateral relationships with Western countries, students and executives moving from places to places, a common ground and cultural identity, a sense of belonging to the same community at the individuals level...
- The Korean moment. Surrounded by ambitious giants (and a Japan dangerously returning to ultra nationalism and Showa-style fascism), seen as the herald of cultural diversity for other Asian nations, Korea has to cope with the collapse of North Korea. In what I call the Albania scenario, the people who used to live in a quasi sect are totally unprepared for a market economy : con men and gurus get the bulk of the values they received as a kick start in a new world.
- The turn of the millenium rise of fundamentalism (Christian in the US and Eastern Europe, Jewish in Eretz Israel and Islamist everywhere) may last if democracies keep electing leaders who put religion at the top of their not so hidden agendas (the collapse of Iraq, the rise of Iran as the regional threat, and the boost to fundamentalists across the globe were not collateral damage but the very aim of Bush's game). And while terrorists trained in Iraq blossom on new urban and suburban playgrounds, al Qaeda survivors and wannabes focus on rural Asia, Africa and South America.

Discussion - 3 challenges for Korea

(my answer to a question regarding the critical challenges Korea will face in the 10 years to come)

I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.

The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)

The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.

Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.

Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.

Red blogule to Korea's hubs - meanwhile, in China...

While Busan, Incheon and several Seoul areas compete to become Asia's next hub, China plays "baduk" at a much larger level in order to host the future center of Korea.

Claiming Korea's cultural heritage is not enough. Even if their army of revisionist historians don't succeed in putting Koguryo on the Map of China, Beijing's strategic planners will use their multitudes to build a Great Wall of Korea on Chinese soil.

This future "Korean triangle" is meant to become even more powerful than Shanghai. The bay around Dalian being safe from freezing winters, it can compete with both Incheon and Busan and become the ideal spot for the future Eurasian railways terminals - no need to bother completing these silly inter-korean lines boys, we're taking care of everything from Motherland. Look, the "Bay of Korea" bathes our shores, we're not like those naughty Japanese imperialists who renamed the Sea of Korea "Sea of Japan" or worse, called Dokdo "Takeshima" as a tribute to their colonial craft (they say "bamboo island" comes from the shapes of the rocks but we all know how bamboo grows : Takeshima doesn't describe this dust on the sea but celebrates the first implantation of the Empire on a foreign soil).

China's building the ideal home for Koreans, leveraging on its strong local ethnic minority and intending to lure natives from the Korean Peninsula : either from the North (escaping from Hell), or from the South (escaping from a country with the World's lowest fertility rate, an insane education system and fewer opportunities in general) in a XXIst Century wild West gold rush (by the way, while we're at it, why not have some drafting sessions in LA's Koreatown as well ?). Thats a serious threat for a country whose most valuable assets are intangible or related to the very character of its population.

To make it even worse, the recent politico-military deal clinched between Japan and the US further precipitates Seoul in the welcoming arms of Beijing. And Korea can't find much disinterested support from its other giant neighbor Russia. Kofi Annan won't be of much help to Roh Moo-hyun for a better respect of fair play in the region. Korea needs to federate other Asian nations worried about China's and Japan's neo-imperialism, become a herald of cultural, economical and political diversity in the region... without angering Beijing too much because it can't afford it.

Korea can become a hub after all. But only if its major cities play as a team instead of competing with each other.

Red blogule to the DP World - P&O deal's Architects and winners

When Karl Rove claims total transparency and George W Bush puts his veto in the balance, something pretty vital for the Bush Administration must be under way.
We're just talking about a takeover of the P&O Group (The Peninsular and Oriental Steam Navigation Company), which happens to operate all major US ports on the East Coast, New Orleans, Florida and Texas included. Some are worrying because national security is at stake and the new owner, DP World (Dubai Ports World), is wholly owned by the government of the United Arab Emirates.
As far as I'm concerned, I'm sure DP World will do as good a job as P&O - if not better. The issue lies elsewhere and quite a few questions burn my lips :
. why are the Bush Administration so eager to push the takeover, defend DP World and take as many risks in an election year ?
. what can they get in exchange for DP World's new entry points, and not only in North America (ie Asia - including Russia, India, Indonesia and China -, France, the UK, not to mention P&O Estates' 25 million ft² of property in Western countries and Australasia ?
. what role did Dave Sanborn play during his one year of service at DP World (as a Director of Operations for Europe and Latin America) to deserve a nomination by Dubya himself as MarAd (Maritime Administrator - under Secretary of Transportation Norman Mineta) ?
. why was the recent replacement of Russ Peters by Helen Deeble as P&O's CEO announced by, among all the company's top guns, Sir John Parker* ?
. what promises were made by Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Chairman of DP World and so much respected by the Haves More of the world (also Chairman of Nakheel, the owner of The Palm and The World luxury resorts) ?
. why did DP World overpay so quickly and overwhelmingly for P&O, far beyond what PSA could ever consider realistic (this Singapore-based competitor also coveted the UK operator and immediately gave up), and to the point they even had to admit by themselves the price was excessive ?
. ...
Looks like DP World's takeover of P&O was not only accepted by, but made possible by the Bush Administration. If not how, time will tell why.


* An advisor to the Defense Academy and a President of the Royal Institution of Naval Architects, Sir John has been cruising in the naval circles for ages (Carnival Corporation, National Grid Transco, P&O...), claims a few prestigious memberships or chairmanships (Court of the Bank of England, General Committee of Lloyds Register of Shipping, Lloyds Technical Committee...), but also seems to know quite a lot about lobbying in the US :
- Brambles Industries plc (support services for heavy industries),
- Babcock International Group plc (technical services and engineering, aerospace and defense, a major contractor in Afghanistan and Iraq),
- Chairman of the RMC Group plc (alias Cemex, the leader of concrete in the US)...

Red blogule to counterterrorism in Korea

Judge Bruguiere warned Asian financial capitals : Al Qaeda may strike anytime soon. Hong-Kong, S'pore and Tokyo reacted more or less quickly but Seoul doesn't seem to realize Korea has soldiers in Iraq and a quite nice flock of Pakistanese fundamentalists around Itaewon's mosque. They don't seem to realize Seoul is a perfect hub for central asian terrorists the police cannot even dream of infiltrating.
Of course terrorists would have a tough time escaping the country safely and retaliation would easily strike the harmless bulk of these small communities, but they shouldn't care if they're ready to blow themselves up. I think the country could afford doing some research about this kind of stem cells too.

Red blogule to the Red Army - I smell a Ratz

Astonishing ! Opus Dei defeated Orbis Tertius and George Louis II has eventually been overthrowned by Benoit XVI, a young ayatollah who may well rule till he turns 120 : smart Kardinal Ratzinger pretended to be sick a couple of years ago but you just have to see him radiate power over Saint Peter's Square to know he's here to stay. Besides, don't expect this florentine shadow to exhaust himself giving rockstar concerts all over the world or playing tennis at Castel Gandolfo with Wojtek Fibak (Boris Becker ?).
So what's the score lads ? The Church decided to protect his king with a tower and a dark horse, prefering a stalemate with fundamentalists instead of moving one step ahead in a world where Bush got reelected and Al Qaeda are experiencing new playgrounds (Mexico, South America, Central Asia...).
So "be not affraid", remain in the dark and keep faith in Benito XIV - oops put that back in Order before somebody notice, quick.

Red Blogule to Jeb Bush - The Disaster Brothers

So Mr Natural Catastrophe decided to pay a visit to the Asian shores devastated by last week's tsunamis. Unlike his brother George, a master in manmade disasters, Jeb seems more interested in the destructions caused by Mother Nature. Anyway, the Governor of Florida feels like getting some international exposure. Wonder why ?
Habemus papam folks ! Our Dear Compassionate Leader has found the next ruler for the Bush dynasty. Daddy Herb may call him "44" soon. Stephane MOT