If protorevolutionary movements across the Arabo-Muslim world tend to remind me of the late eighties in Eastern Europe, this is completely different.
This time it's not about the regionwide collapse of a corrupt system and ideology with a top-down benediction from a pro-reform leader (Gorbachev), but about several grassroot movements challenging local dictators, corrupt regimes sans ideology.
Note that both Ben Ali and Mubarak were already ailing caids. Beyond their political deaths, what matters now is the removal of entourages controlling most of the power in each country.
Of course, nature abhors a vacuum, and fundamentalists would love to step in to fill the ideology void. At this defining moment, most people on the street seem to reject as false the choice between dictatorship and fundamentalism, but most people on the street prefer order to chaos, and uncertainty shouldn't last too long.
Israel nervously watches as Jordanian and Egyptian regimes falter under popular pressure. Muslim friends who could turn enemies, with the benediction of Iran, whose own corrupt regime postponed its ineluctable fall by a few years by crushing popular uprisings at home. Unfortunately, these days, Israeli leaders seem to position themselves as a corrupt regime with some ideology. Not a dictatorship, mind you, but not a bunch of nice guys either.
Barack Obama is a nice guy. Unfortunately, these days, the US leader doesn't seem to be in charge of foreign policy, so huge is the gap between what he says and what the US do. And the poor lad doesn't have one Gorbachev to call if he wants that sand curtain torn down...
So what's ahead ? Probably trouble and uncertainties, but somehow this transitional period has started after WWII and independence wars, and we're closer to the end than from the beginning. Something new will emerge and eventually, something positive. Societies freed from political and religious deviances. Hopefully, the time has come for a true Muslim renaissance.
Right now, most dictators across the globe must have gotten some kind of message. But even supposedly strong democracies should be thinking twice when they applaud successful local uprisings or self-determination processes like in South Sudan : what is a nation in this globalized world, what will be holding its members together in this networked millenium ?
More than ever, each individual will reach for the universal (as a human being), and the personal (identity).
blogules 2011
Showing posts with label Africa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Africa. Show all posts
20110204
20110117
And now for something completely different
"It’s important for us to pause for a moment and make sure that we’re talking with each other in a way that heals, not in a way that wounds".
With this, President Obama could let Sarah Palin drown in her own blood libelling pool if he weren't a truly compassionate leader : "we cannot do is use this tragedy as one more occasion to turn on each other".
From Tucson, AZ to Tunis now: the great people of Tunisia managed to push dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and his Trabelsi clique out. But some of their thugs remain loose on the street, and at the other end of the hate line, fundamentalists are more than ever eager to wedge their ways into the country. They obviously were not invited at the table for the national unity government : the unity they seek doesn't quite fit the democratic agenda.
From Tunis to Juba: here, the democratic agenda is set and a new country is about to emerge from the referendum. Complete with controversial borders, and strategic pipelines, Southern Sudan is also the perfect target for hatemongers.
From Tunis and Juba to Abidjan: these days, Laurent Gbagbo is probably paying some attention to what's happening in other African countries. To the Ben Ali scenario, I'm sure he'd prefer to see Ivory Coast split in two. Of course, without any democratic process.
From Tunis to Washington, DC : no need to wait for the next WikiLeaks batch to know that Ben Ali's quick retreat to Saudi Arabia owes something to US diplomacy. A small compromise, but an overall B+ for Secretary of State Clinton in this (at long last) booming region. Maybe Chinese diplomats contributed : all of a sudden, supporting local dictators in exchange for raw materials is not as politically correct as it used to be.
Cynics would say that after this African Yalta, the Chinese will keep nurturing their dictator in North Sudan, while Americans will start pumping oil in South Sudan.
Another victory for Africa yesterday ? The new Front National leader has African origins : like her dad Jean-Marie, Marine Le Pen shares her origins with all of us French, Americans, Chinese... you name it. But I don't think she's going to celebrate this politically and scientifically correct fact. In a way that heals.
blogules 2011
With this, President Obama could let Sarah Palin drown in her own blood libelling pool if he weren't a truly compassionate leader : "we cannot do is use this tragedy as one more occasion to turn on each other".
From Tucson, AZ to Tunis now: the great people of Tunisia managed to push dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and his Trabelsi clique out. But some of their thugs remain loose on the street, and at the other end of the hate line, fundamentalists are more than ever eager to wedge their ways into the country. They obviously were not invited at the table for the national unity government : the unity they seek doesn't quite fit the democratic agenda.
From Tunis to Juba: here, the democratic agenda is set and a new country is about to emerge from the referendum. Complete with controversial borders, and strategic pipelines, Southern Sudan is also the perfect target for hatemongers.
From Tunis and Juba to Abidjan: these days, Laurent Gbagbo is probably paying some attention to what's happening in other African countries. To the Ben Ali scenario, I'm sure he'd prefer to see Ivory Coast split in two. Of course, without any democratic process.
From Tunis to Washington, DC : no need to wait for the next WikiLeaks batch to know that Ben Ali's quick retreat to Saudi Arabia owes something to US diplomacy. A small compromise, but an overall B+ for Secretary of State Clinton in this (at long last) booming region. Maybe Chinese diplomats contributed : all of a sudden, supporting local dictators in exchange for raw materials is not as politically correct as it used to be.
Cynics would say that after this African Yalta, the Chinese will keep nurturing their dictator in North Sudan, while Americans will start pumping oil in South Sudan.
Another victory for Africa yesterday ? The new Front National leader has African origins : like her dad Jean-Marie, Marine Le Pen shares her origins with all of us French, Americans, Chinese... you name it. But I don't think she's going to celebrate this politically and scientifically correct fact. In a way that heals.
blogules 2011
20100713
Paul the Octopus
Again, that World Cup post-partum blues.
That sense of emptiness, the brain progressively training itself to intercept signals involving other things than soccer balls, the effort even tougher this time because of those damned vuvuzelas (time difference ? I kind of got used to it after my tenth World Cup).
The embarrassing realization that I've been outsmarted by a squid in my predictions.
The embarrassing realization that 2010, a great year for African soccer, started with shootings at Togolese players in Angola, and continues with the murder of fans in Uganda. A Christmas tree at the DRC Soccer Federation ? Thanks, but no thanks.
The embarrassing realization that, while players tried to understand the tricky aerodynamics of Jabulani, our small planet kept moving in its very predictable way :
- The First Scrabble Wars ended with a draw between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
- Again, Barack Obama welcomed Benjamin Netanyahu who, again the previous day, promised that this time, he would be a nice guy.
- As videos of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest rocked the web, Haiti's Daily Eating Challenge only got a few clicks.
- US citizens let Tony the Octopus spill as much ink as he could in the Gulf of Mexico. As if Tony Hayward had a clue about what was at stake if BP picked this well instead of that one.
blogules 2010
That sense of emptiness, the brain progressively training itself to intercept signals involving other things than soccer balls, the effort even tougher this time because of those damned vuvuzelas (time difference ? I kind of got used to it after my tenth World Cup).
The embarrassing realization that I've been outsmarted by a squid in my predictions.
The embarrassing realization that 2010, a great year for African soccer, started with shootings at Togolese players in Angola, and continues with the murder of fans in Uganda. A Christmas tree at the DRC Soccer Federation ? Thanks, but no thanks.
The embarrassing realization that, while players tried to understand the tricky aerodynamics of Jabulani, our small planet kept moving in its very predictable way :
- The First Scrabble Wars ended with a draw between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
- Again, Barack Obama welcomed Benjamin Netanyahu who, again the previous day, promised that this time, he would be a nice guy.
- As videos of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest rocked the web, Haiti's Daily Eating Challenge only got a few clicks.
- US citizens let Tony the Octopus spill as much ink as he could in the Gulf of Mexico. As if Tony Hayward had a clue about what was at stake if BP picked this well instead of that one.
blogules 2010
20081107
Fox News executes Sarah Palin
If you haven't seen this cult O'Reilly Factor video yet, here's Carl Cameron exposing to Bill O'Reilly what kind of Veep John McCain would have offered America.
It beats all those SNL videos : Palin unable to list NAFTA countries (nor even the countries in North America !), Palin thinking Africa was a country and South Africa a region of this country, Palin refusing to rehearse before the Couric interview and blaming the staff for her failure afterwards, Palin clashing with everybody, Palin on shopping frenzies... it only lasts five minutes but you know that waiting behind, there will be enough Palin bashing books to fill up the Library of Congress by Christmas Eve :
O'Reilly had to apologise the next day to his outraged viewers.
Bonus video - Politico's wrap up of the day following the elections (Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, David Lettterman...) :
Addendum 200811: the "Africa" part proved to be a hoax by the Yes Men. Anyway, the Pranked in Chief award goes to Sarah.
It beats all those SNL videos : Palin unable to list NAFTA countries (nor even the countries in North America !), Palin thinking Africa was a country and South Africa a region of this country, Palin refusing to rehearse before the Couric interview and blaming the staff for her failure afterwards, Palin clashing with everybody, Palin on shopping frenzies... it only lasts five minutes but you know that waiting behind, there will be enough Palin bashing books to fill up the Library of Congress by Christmas Eve :
O'Reilly had to apologise the next day to his outraged viewers.
Bonus video - Politico's wrap up of the day following the elections (Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, David Lettterman...) :
Addendum 200811: the "Africa" part proved to be a hoax by the Yes Men. Anyway, the Pranked in Chief award goes to Sarah.
20070730
Can't buy me love
The US sponsors peace process in the Middle East : 30 billions for Israel and 12 for Egypt. The sums are already allocated for weapons made by Uncle Sam. The White House's PR artists found that system more PC than their usual sale pitch ("we widened the Federal deficit by giving away 42 more billions to US death industries"). Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries added 20 billions to the pool in order to get the same Weapons of Mass Destructions as their neighbors.
France sponsors environmental policies in Africa : Nicolas Sarkozy helps Libya get drinkable water and Gabon restore its forests. The Elysee Palace's PR artists preferred that version to their usual sale pitch ("we sold a nuclear plant to Muammar al-Qaddafi and we gave 50 millions to Omar Bongo"). To make good measure, France will generously allow Libyans to purchase 100 millions worth of weapons Made In France.
France sponsors environmental policies in Africa : Nicolas Sarkozy helps Libya get drinkable water and Gabon restore its forests. The Elysee Palace's PR artists preferred that version to their usual sale pitch ("we sold a nuclear plant to Muammar al-Qaddafi and we gave 50 millions to Omar Bongo"). To make good measure, France will generously allow Libyans to purchase 100 millions worth of weapons Made In France.
Diplomats, no. Deep loot mats, si.
20070426
White, red and pink blogules to the World in 2020
The CER (Centre for European Reform ) and Accenture recently waged a debate about the World in 2020, partly fueled by Mark Leonard's essay "Divided world: The struggle for supremacy". The democracy vs autocracy divide sounds a little bit white vs black to me, and I may add a few other key structural changes within :
- America enjoying good demography dynamics but becoming more monolithic, more focused on itself, welcoming fewer influences from abroad. Growing old a different way.
- At the opposite of this Mainland Amerika, China is embracing its own diversity. Chinese imperialism is no more about spreading a unique monolithic model but about a much smarter pervasiveness, leveraging on all minorities instead of crushing cultural diversity (ie China intends to build the core of Koreanhood on its very soil, claims the Koguryo cultural heritage, and position the Korean peninsula as a motherland's satellite).
- What I call "Asianitude" keeps growing. Asian countries developping intra-asian relationships beyond the traditional bilateral relationships with Western countries, students and executives moving from places to places, a common ground and cultural identity, a sense of belonging to the same community at the individuals level...
- The Korean moment. Surrounded by ambitious giants (and a Japan dangerously returning to ultra nationalism and Showa-style fascism), seen as the herald of cultural diversity for other Asian nations, Korea has to cope with the collapse of North Korea. In what I call the Albania scenario, the people who used to live in a quasi sect are totally unprepared for a market economy : con men and gurus get the bulk of the values they received as a kick start in a new world.
- The turn of the millenium rise of fundamentalism (Christian in the US and Eastern Europe, Jewish in Eretz Israel and Islamist everywhere) may last if democracies keep electing leaders who put religion at the top of their not so hidden agendas (the collapse of Iraq, the rise of Iran as the regional threat, and the boost to fundamentalists across the globe were not collateral damage but the very aim of Bush's game). And while terrorists trained in Iraq blossom on new urban and suburban playgrounds, al Qaeda survivors and wannabes focus on rural Asia, Africa and South America.
- America enjoying good demography dynamics but becoming more monolithic, more focused on itself, welcoming fewer influences from abroad. Growing old a different way.
- At the opposite of this Mainland Amerika, China is embracing its own diversity. Chinese imperialism is no more about spreading a unique monolithic model but about a much smarter pervasiveness, leveraging on all minorities instead of crushing cultural diversity (ie China intends to build the core of Koreanhood on its very soil, claims the Koguryo cultural heritage, and position the Korean peninsula as a motherland's satellite).
- What I call "Asianitude" keeps growing. Asian countries developping intra-asian relationships beyond the traditional bilateral relationships with Western countries, students and executives moving from places to places, a common ground and cultural identity, a sense of belonging to the same community at the individuals level...
- The Korean moment. Surrounded by ambitious giants (and a Japan dangerously returning to ultra nationalism and Showa-style fascism), seen as the herald of cultural diversity for other Asian nations, Korea has to cope with the collapse of North Korea. In what I call the Albania scenario, the people who used to live in a quasi sect are totally unprepared for a market economy : con men and gurus get the bulk of the values they received as a kick start in a new world.
- The turn of the millenium rise of fundamentalism (Christian in the US and Eastern Europe, Jewish in Eretz Israel and Islamist everywhere) may last if democracies keep electing leaders who put religion at the top of their not so hidden agendas (the collapse of Iraq, the rise of Iran as the regional threat, and the boost to fundamentalists across the globe were not collateral damage but the very aim of Bush's game). And while terrorists trained in Iraq blossom on new urban and suburban playgrounds, al Qaeda survivors and wannabes focus on rural Asia, Africa and South America.
20050720
Red blogules to hypocrisy - what Bush doctrine ?
North Korea back to the 6 party talks ? Thank the very official US-NK meeting, a total renouncement to the Bush dogma : we don't talk to dictators (er... make that "this kind of dictators").
Iran and Irak restoring diplomatic links ? Thank the US-backed Iraqi government for initiating a meeting the US wouldn't want to be known as the actual initiator.
$500M for Iraq from the World Bank ? Thank the same US-backed Iraqi government for asking a favor which had been denied to the country since 1973. Thank also Paul Wolfowitz for making a priority of what we expected from him (outsourcing the US deficit created by the Iraqi quagmire) instead of what he said he would do (fighting against poverty in Africa).
The World is better when the US don't follow the Bush doctrine.
And the World would definitely be even a better place if the US didn't follow it in the first place.
Iran and Irak restoring diplomatic links ? Thank the US-backed Iraqi government for initiating a meeting the US wouldn't want to be known as the actual initiator.
$500M for Iraq from the World Bank ? Thank the same US-backed Iraqi government for asking a favor which had been denied to the country since 1973. Thank also Paul Wolfowitz for making a priority of what we expected from him (outsourcing the US deficit created by the Iraqi quagmire) instead of what he said he would do (fighting against poverty in Africa).
The World is better when the US don't follow the Bush doctrine.
And the World would definitely be even a better place if the US didn't follow it in the first place.
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