The CER (Centre for European Reform ) and Accenture recently waged a debate about the World in 2020, partly fueled by Mark Leonard's essay "Divided world: The struggle for supremacy". The democracy vs autocracy divide sounds a little bit white vs black to me, and I may add a few other key structural changes within :
- America enjoying good demography dynamics but becoming more monolithic, more focused on itself, welcoming fewer influences from abroad. Growing old a different way.
- At the opposite of this Mainland Amerika, China is embracing its own diversity. Chinese imperialism is no more about spreading a unique monolithic model but about a much smarter pervasiveness, leveraging on all minorities instead of crushing cultural diversity (ie China intends to build the core of Koreanhood on its very soil, claims the Koguryo cultural heritage, and position the Korean peninsula as a motherland's satellite).
- What I call "Asianitude" keeps growing. Asian countries developping intra-asian relationships beyond the traditional bilateral relationships with Western countries, students and executives moving from places to places, a common ground and cultural identity, a sense of belonging to the same community at the individuals level...
- The Korean moment. Surrounded by ambitious giants (and a Japan dangerously returning to ultra nationalism and Showa-style fascism), seen as the herald of cultural diversity for other Asian nations, Korea has to cope with the collapse of North Korea. In what I call the Albania scenario, the people who used to live in a quasi sect are totally unprepared for a market economy : con men and gurus get the bulk of the values they received as a kick start in a new world.
- The turn of the millenium rise of fundamentalism (Christian in the US and Eastern Europe, Jewish in Eretz Israel and Islamist everywhere) may last if democracies keep electing leaders who put religion at the top of their not so hidden agendas (the collapse of Iraq, the rise of Iran as the regional threat, and the boost to fundamentalists across the globe were not collateral damage but the very aim of Bush's game). And while terrorists trained in Iraq blossom on new urban and suburban playgrounds, al Qaeda survivors and wannabes focus on rural Asia, Africa and South America.
Showing posts with label demography. Show all posts
Showing posts with label demography. Show all posts
20070328
Discussion - 3 challenges for Korea
(my answer to a question regarding the critical challenges Korea will face in the 10 years to come)
I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.
The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)
The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.
Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.
Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.
I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.
The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)
The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.
Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.
Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.
20060517
Red blogule to Korea's hubs - meanwhile, in China...
While Busan, Incheon and several Seoul areas compete to become Asia's next hub, China plays "baduk" at a much larger level in order to host the future center of Korea.
Claiming Korea's cultural heritage is not enough. Even if their army of revisionist historians don't succeed in putting Koguryo on the Map of China, Beijing's strategic planners will use their multitudes to build a Great Wall of Korea on Chinese soil.
This future "Korean triangle" is meant to become even more powerful than Shanghai. The bay around Dalian being safe from freezing winters, it can compete with both Incheon and Busan and become the ideal spot for the future Eurasian railways terminals - no need to bother completing these silly inter-korean lines boys, we're taking care of everything from Motherland. Look, the "Bay of Korea" bathes our shores, we're not like those naughty Japanese imperialists who renamed the Sea of Korea "Sea of Japan" or worse, called Dokdo "Takeshima" as a tribute to their colonial craft (they say "bamboo island" comes from the shapes of the rocks but we all know how bamboo grows : Takeshima doesn't describe this dust on the sea but celebrates the first implantation of the Empire on a foreign soil).
China's building the ideal home for Koreans, leveraging on its strong local ethnic minority and intending to lure natives from the Korean Peninsula : either from the North (escaping from Hell), or from the South (escaping from a country with the World's lowest fertility rate, an insane education system and fewer opportunities in general) in a XXIst Century wild West gold rush (by the way, while we're at it, why not have some drafting sessions in LA's Koreatown as well ?). Thats a serious threat for a country whose most valuable assets are intangible or related to the very character of its population.
To make it even worse, the recent politico-military deal clinched between Japan and the US further precipitates Seoul in the welcoming arms of Beijing. And Korea can't find much disinterested support from its other giant neighbor Russia. Kofi Annan won't be of much help to Roh Moo-hyun for a better respect of fair play in the region. Korea needs to federate other Asian nations worried about China's and Japan's neo-imperialism, become a herald of cultural, economical and political diversity in the region... without angering Beijing too much because it can't afford it.
Korea can become a hub after all. But only if its major cities play as a team instead of competing with each other.
Claiming Korea's cultural heritage is not enough. Even if their army of revisionist historians don't succeed in putting Koguryo on the Map of China, Beijing's strategic planners will use their multitudes to build a Great Wall of Korea on Chinese soil.
This future "Korean triangle" is meant to become even more powerful than Shanghai. The bay around Dalian being safe from freezing winters, it can compete with both Incheon and Busan and become the ideal spot for the future Eurasian railways terminals - no need to bother completing these silly inter-korean lines boys, we're taking care of everything from Motherland. Look, the "Bay of Korea" bathes our shores, we're not like those naughty Japanese imperialists who renamed the Sea of Korea "Sea of Japan" or worse, called Dokdo "Takeshima" as a tribute to their colonial craft (they say "bamboo island" comes from the shapes of the rocks but we all know how bamboo grows : Takeshima doesn't describe this dust on the sea but celebrates the first implantation of the Empire on a foreign soil).
China's building the ideal home for Koreans, leveraging on its strong local ethnic minority and intending to lure natives from the Korean Peninsula : either from the North (escaping from Hell), or from the South (escaping from a country with the World's lowest fertility rate, an insane education system and fewer opportunities in general) in a XXIst Century wild West gold rush (by the way, while we're at it, why not have some drafting sessions in LA's Koreatown as well ?). Thats a serious threat for a country whose most valuable assets are intangible or related to the very character of its population.
To make it even worse, the recent politico-military deal clinched between Japan and the US further precipitates Seoul in the welcoming arms of Beijing. And Korea can't find much disinterested support from its other giant neighbor Russia. Kofi Annan won't be of much help to Roh Moo-hyun for a better respect of fair play in the region. Korea needs to federate other Asian nations worried about China's and Japan's neo-imperialism, become a herald of cultural, economical and political diversity in the region... without angering Beijing too much because it can't afford it.
Korea can become a hub after all. But only if its major cities play as a team instead of competing with each other.
20060126
White blogule to the State of the Union speech - complete and uncut edition
Exclusive - a blogules scoop: Here is the original speech to be delivered by President George W. Bush today. The text may undergo some edition but the key issues shall remain valid.
Dear fellow Amerikans,
You didn't elect me on my 2000 program, where I presented myself as a "compassionate conservatist". I had to get my mandate through other channels.
You did elect me on my action during my first term, though, and on an openly radical and fundamentalist agenda.
The least one can say is I've been delivering the goods. You can count on me to go further in the same direction and with the same determination once my lifetime nomination is confirmed. I will durably lead Our Beautiful Country towards Freedom, Obscurantism and Absolutism.
I've been criticized for not nominating Billy Graham at the Supreme Court, but I simply had in mind a position more suited for his outstanding talent : from now on, Your Government will have a Chief Evangelist to whom will report, beyond the Supreme Court : the Department Of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department Of Education. The Chief Evangelist will only report to God and the President and will always be nominated by the latter. He and his teams won't have to report to the Congress. On the contrary, the Chief Evangelist will nominate one third of all congressmen, selecting the most reliable candidates according to their knowledge of the scriptures and their devotion to the Intelligent Design.
Dear fellow Amerikans, despite being focused on the fight against Evil and Terror, Your Government keeps in mind other major challenges. Confronted to the rise of such countries as India or China, Our Wonderful Country can leverage on over 9 million square kilometers of land, but on a little bit less than 300 million people. We should be able to reach the density of - say - France, which would help us reach the one billion citizen mark.
Verily, verily, I say to you : Grow and Multiply ! Your Government will facilitate the building of new colonies across our most remote territories. We will for instance make sure every part of Alaska is not only suitable for well heated housing projects but also for tobacco or cotton fields. This dream can be fulfilled thanks to the immense reserves of this vast part of Our Glorious Nation.
We will also facilitate the circulation of all Amerikans between Alaska and the Mainland in spite of the wall we had to erect along the Canadian borders in order to stop their murderous terror attacts and their weaselish infiltrations of subversive ideologies.
I solemny remind the Canadian Government how seriously they should consider our ultimatum. Their pathetic gesticulations at what's left of the UN in Geneva won't help them escape their duties : we expect the full disclosure of their WMD programs and our british allies fully support this most vital request.
We will prevail : abandoned by the Commonwealth, the Canadian Government are in the last throes of their insurrection against their own people.
More than two centuries after its foundation, Our Lovely Country has never been so close to fulfil its dream of Freedom across the whole territory it was meant to liberate. We soon will be able to get rid of the absurd local administrations that paralyze our institutions. Inch'Allah, The United States of America shall become The United State of Amerika.
Long life to Liberty, long life to Freedom and God bless you all, Amen.
Dear fellow Amerikans,
You didn't elect me on my 2000 program, where I presented myself as a "compassionate conservatist". I had to get my mandate through other channels.
You did elect me on my action during my first term, though, and on an openly radical and fundamentalist agenda.
The least one can say is I've been delivering the goods. You can count on me to go further in the same direction and with the same determination once my lifetime nomination is confirmed. I will durably lead Our Beautiful Country towards Freedom, Obscurantism and Absolutism.
I've been criticized for not nominating Billy Graham at the Supreme Court, but I simply had in mind a position more suited for his outstanding talent : from now on, Your Government will have a Chief Evangelist to whom will report, beyond the Supreme Court : the Department Of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department Of Education. The Chief Evangelist will only report to God and the President and will always be nominated by the latter. He and his teams won't have to report to the Congress. On the contrary, the Chief Evangelist will nominate one third of all congressmen, selecting the most reliable candidates according to their knowledge of the scriptures and their devotion to the Intelligent Design.
Dear fellow Amerikans, despite being focused on the fight against Evil and Terror, Your Government keeps in mind other major challenges. Confronted to the rise of such countries as India or China, Our Wonderful Country can leverage on over 9 million square kilometers of land, but on a little bit less than 300 million people. We should be able to reach the density of - say - France, which would help us reach the one billion citizen mark.
Verily, verily, I say to you : Grow and Multiply ! Your Government will facilitate the building of new colonies across our most remote territories. We will for instance make sure every part of Alaska is not only suitable for well heated housing projects but also for tobacco or cotton fields. This dream can be fulfilled thanks to the immense reserves of this vast part of Our Glorious Nation.
We will also facilitate the circulation of all Amerikans between Alaska and the Mainland in spite of the wall we had to erect along the Canadian borders in order to stop their murderous terror attacts and their weaselish infiltrations of subversive ideologies.
I solemny remind the Canadian Government how seriously they should consider our ultimatum. Their pathetic gesticulations at what's left of the UN in Geneva won't help them escape their duties : we expect the full disclosure of their WMD programs and our british allies fully support this most vital request.
We will prevail : abandoned by the Commonwealth, the Canadian Government are in the last throes of their insurrection against their own people.
More than two centuries after its foundation, Our Lovely Country has never been so close to fulfil its dream of Freedom across the whole territory it was meant to liberate. We soon will be able to get rid of the absurd local administrations that paralyze our institutions. Inch'Allah, The United States of America shall become The United State of Amerika.
Long life to Liberty, long life to Freedom and God bless you all, Amen.
20050719
Red blogule to deniers
Dubya doesn't mind Karl taking a leak.
Tony doesn't see any link whatsoever between Iraq and 7/7.
Ariel doesn't understand how his Gaza trick could terminate the peace process.
The fact is Rove deliberately crossed the line.
The fact is Blair deliberately betrayed his fellow citizens.
The fact is Sharon deliberately sticks to his usual hardline : he turned the Gaza strip into an unmanageable ghetto, getting rid of it will unknot the demographic dilemma for Israeli radicals, and the inevitable failure of "independant Gaza" will end all talks about Cisjordania (not to mention Jerusalem).
The fact is no one can stop them as they keep insulting History.
Shame on terrorists, but furthermore shame on those who were supposed to eradicate terror.
Tony doesn't see any link whatsoever between Iraq and 7/7.
Ariel doesn't understand how his Gaza trick could terminate the peace process.
The fact is Rove deliberately crossed the line.
The fact is Blair deliberately betrayed his fellow citizens.
The fact is Sharon deliberately sticks to his usual hardline : he turned the Gaza strip into an unmanageable ghetto, getting rid of it will unknot the demographic dilemma for Israeli radicals, and the inevitable failure of "independant Gaza" will end all talks about Cisjordania (not to mention Jerusalem).
The fact is no one can stop them as they keep insulting History.
Shame on terrorists, but furthermore shame on those who were supposed to eradicate terror.
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