It's cherry blossom season in Japan, and saber rattling season in North Korea. So the Japanese Government decided to deploy Patriot Missiles in the (not yet) dead middle of Tokyo. Beautiful photo ops for media from across the world: dark, bulky death machines with delicate, georgeous sakura patches in the background.
Of course, the message is not to KIM Jong-un ("we'll destroy your missile if it flies over Tokyo"*), but to Japan's die hard bureaucrats: "please keep our government afloat".
First, I don't think Japanese leaders flunked all geography exams. Tokyo lies near the East Coast, and if North Koreans really plan to fire over Japan, they certainly won't do it Westwards (unless they're looking for a record breaking range / a potential sepukku). So if Japans really wants to prevent the missile from entering its air space, it must shoot long before it flies over Tokyo.
Second, this photo op is pure political porn for the Japanese extreme right: a caricature celebrating the rebirth of the Empire as a military superpower, and the very negation of Japan as a peaceful nation.
If there were countless other ways for a democracy to show its resolve against provocations from Pyeongyang, Yoshihiko Noda couldn't have signed a better pledge of allegiance to the worst enemies of Japan**: the ones from within.
blogules 2012 - previously published on Seoul Village ("Tokyo Sakura With Patriot Missiles (A Still Life)")
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* we recently mentioned the issue (see "NK and nukes: back to the (dolsot curling) stone age?"). KIM The Third wants to celebrate KIM The First's Centennial (KIM Il-sung was born on April 15th, 1912, but the pyrotechnic show could be planned for the 12th).
** see previous posts about this dangerous clique
Showing posts with label Kim Il-sung. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kim Il-sung. Show all posts
20120408
20111219
KIM Jong-il: four weddings and a funeral
So as expected, KIM Jong-il died. A bit early to secure the transition with KIM Jong-un, who might be tempted to show his skills to those who doubt he's got whatever that is North Korean leaders are supposed to have.
Physically, Junior already used plastic surgery to improve his Kimilsungist looks, let's hope he won't try to sport his dad's weirdo hairdo now.
Character-wise, Jong-un is rumored to be more ill-tempered than his brothers Jong-nam and Jong-chol, respectively a Disneyland and an Eric Clapton fan. But compared to the Late Dear Leader, he's more permeated with such capitalist perversions as burgers. And it starts showing, particularly in a country where the population is maintained in a constant state of starvation.
As far as leadership is concerned, Jong-un didn't quite pass the cut last year: the young lad has been credited with the latest attack on South Korean soil but doesn't seem much of an expert, judging by the way he uses binoculars...
So we'll follow KIM Jong-il's funerals (after four weddings, Hugh can grant him that**). And eminent Pyeongyangologists will watch closely: who will keep a seat when the music stops? Isn't CHANG Sung-taek a trifle too old for musical chairs? Will Beijing-friendly people get promoted in the army*?
In South Korea, a North Korean Spring or Winter would have consequences for the 2012 elections: more tensions could become a problem for AHN Cheol-soo (commander in chief beyond cyberwars?), and boost conservatives, but not necessarily PARK Geun-hye (would Koreans vote for a woman in times of crisis, and one used to operating only behind the scenes at that?).
By the way. This week-end, LEE Myung-bak visited Japan, and devoted the bulk of his talks with Yoshihiko Noda to the issue of Japanese military sexual slavery, following Wednesday's successful demonstration (see "One Thousand Wednesdays"). But if he's consistent, the President must also reactivate the Truth and Reconciliation Commission: every country must face its own past, particularly when it expects the same from its neighbors.
blogules 2011
(originally on Seoul Village: "KIM Jong-il passes. To KIM Jong-un. Presumably.")
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*... and the invisible 'hanschluss' continue? see "China-North Korea : the Great Hanschluss still the base case scenario", and previous posts about NK
** BTW 'Four weddings and a funeral' got released in 1994, the same year KIM Il-sung died.
---
20111230 update: corrected the title (which I changed while editing). Obviously, I never quite got used to Kim Jong-il. And KJI sounds more than ever like a name from the past.
Physically, Junior already used plastic surgery to improve his Kimilsungist looks, let's hope he won't try to sport his dad's weirdo hairdo now.
Character-wise, Jong-un is rumored to be more ill-tempered than his brothers Jong-nam and Jong-chol, respectively a Disneyland and an Eric Clapton fan. But compared to the Late Dear Leader, he's more permeated with such capitalist perversions as burgers. And it starts showing, particularly in a country where the population is maintained in a constant state of starvation.
As far as leadership is concerned, Jong-un didn't quite pass the cut last year: the young lad has been credited with the latest attack on South Korean soil but doesn't seem much of an expert, judging by the way he uses binoculars...
So we'll follow KIM Jong-il's funerals (after four weddings, Hugh can grant him that**). And eminent Pyeongyangologists will watch closely: who will keep a seat when the music stops? Isn't CHANG Sung-taek a trifle too old for musical chairs? Will Beijing-friendly people get promoted in the army*?
In South Korea, a North Korean Spring or Winter would have consequences for the 2012 elections: more tensions could become a problem for AHN Cheol-soo (commander in chief beyond cyberwars?), and boost conservatives, but not necessarily PARK Geun-hye (would Koreans vote for a woman in times of crisis, and one used to operating only behind the scenes at that?).
By the way. This week-end, LEE Myung-bak visited Japan, and devoted the bulk of his talks with Yoshihiko Noda to the issue of Japanese military sexual slavery, following Wednesday's successful demonstration (see "One Thousand Wednesdays"). But if he's consistent, the President must also reactivate the Truth and Reconciliation Commission: every country must face its own past, particularly when it expects the same from its neighbors.
blogules 2011
(originally on Seoul Village: "KIM Jong-il passes. To KIM Jong-un. Presumably.")
NEW : follow Seoul Village on Facebook and Twitter
*... and the invisible 'hanschluss' continue? see "China-North Korea : the Great Hanschluss still the base case scenario", and previous posts about NK
** BTW 'Four weddings and a funeral' got released in 1994, the same year KIM Il-sung died.
---
20111230 update: corrected the title (which I changed while editing). Obviously, I never quite got used to Kim Jong-il. And KJI sounds more than ever like a name from the past.
20070328
Discussion - 3 challenges for Korea
(my answer to a question regarding the critical challenges Korea will face in the 10 years to come)
I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.
The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)
The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.
Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.
Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.
I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.
The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)
The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.
Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.
Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.
20050708
Red blogule to Bush's terrorist training camps
Even if, this time again, the bombs didn't strike the US, the landscape looks terrible : propaganda, torture, gulags, illegal abductions on foreign soil and now journalists in prison... George W. Bush's Amerika looks everyday more like Kim Il-Sung's North Korea.
As terror strikes London like Baghdad any given day, as Bosnia / Chechnya veteran fighters start messing with what's left of Afghanistan, one can only imagine how long the World will pay for the US historical suicide in Iraq. Thanks to Uncle Sam, today Iraq is a much easier training camp for foreign terrorists than 1980s Afghanistan, 1990s Bosnia or 2000s Chechnya.
Bush keeps talking about good vs evil and the use of force to retaliate - Blair keeps talking about attacks against civilization... but such speeches are music to the ears of fundamentalists. What these leaders need to protect is not their own "way of life" but the basic rights of moderate majorities under the spell of extremist minorities.
After this awful wake up call in the deadest middle of the G8 meeting, will the World eventually admit how wrong that war was ? Back then, Iraq had nothing to do with terror, and Saddam was more under stronger control than ever (even he wouldn't have performed that much destruction that quickly) - a smarter approach was possible and almost under way. The US is not only wasting people and key ressources in Iraq ; it keeps fueling the extremists with more energy. Off course Iraq shouldn't be abandoned now, but the World would be safer without this unnecessary front.
Removing the Talibans was a true war on terror, but the right way to fight terror was and still remains at its very roots : solving the Palestine issue (following the footprints and roadmaps of moderate 1995 leaders), supporting the moderates versus the fanatics and moreover eradicating the very world poverty G8 members were supposed to meet for...
As terror strikes London like Baghdad any given day, as Bosnia / Chechnya veteran fighters start messing with what's left of Afghanistan, one can only imagine how long the World will pay for the US historical suicide in Iraq. Thanks to Uncle Sam, today Iraq is a much easier training camp for foreign terrorists than 1980s Afghanistan, 1990s Bosnia or 2000s Chechnya.
Bush keeps talking about good vs evil and the use of force to retaliate - Blair keeps talking about attacks against civilization... but such speeches are music to the ears of fundamentalists. What these leaders need to protect is not their own "way of life" but the basic rights of moderate majorities under the spell of extremist minorities.
After this awful wake up call in the deadest middle of the G8 meeting, will the World eventually admit how wrong that war was ? Back then, Iraq had nothing to do with terror, and Saddam was more under stronger control than ever (even he wouldn't have performed that much destruction that quickly) - a smarter approach was possible and almost under way. The US is not only wasting people and key ressources in Iraq ; it keeps fueling the extremists with more energy. Off course Iraq shouldn't be abandoned now, but the World would be safer without this unnecessary front.
Removing the Talibans was a true war on terror, but the right way to fight terror was and still remains at its very roots : solving the Palestine issue (following the footprints and roadmaps of moderate 1995 leaders), supporting the moderates versus the fanatics and moreover eradicating the very world poverty G8 members were supposed to meet for...
20050331
Red blogule to North Korea's hooligans
The small riot in Pyongyang's Kim Il-Sung Stadium yesterday (following the defeat of North Korea to Iran 2-0) could be considered as good news since it exposes the deliquescence of the ruling power. I don't think it should.
The problem is the same as for Iraq, only worse : a regime change is badly needed, but the changing itself means a highly dangerous situation and should be carefuly planned. The chaos in Iraq may look very peaceful compared to what could happen the other side of the DMZ and at the frontiers (especially with China).
Something big is definitely going to happen in North Korea, and much sooner than expected. A collapse by the end of the year wouldn't surprise me. Chosun's neighbors should get ready, and so should the UN, the only international body which could be accepted by Pyongyang or what's left of it.
The problem is the same as for Iraq, only worse : a regime change is badly needed, but the changing itself means a highly dangerous situation and should be carefuly planned. The chaos in Iraq may look very peaceful compared to what could happen the other side of the DMZ and at the frontiers (especially with China).
Something big is definitely going to happen in North Korea, and much sooner than expected. A collapse by the end of the year wouldn't surprise me. Chosun's neighbors should get ready, and so should the UN, the only international body which could be accepted by Pyongyang or what's left of it.
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