(my answer to a question regarding the critical challenges Korea will face in the 10 years to come)
I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.
The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)
The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.
Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.
Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.
Showing posts with label Beijing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Beijing. Show all posts
20061019
White blogule to Roh Moo-hyun - protecting Korea from the US
The Bush Administration has been working on a violent collapse of Kim Jong-il's regime for years. Bush even refused proposals by Pyongyang dovishest hawks to make peace and step by step becoming a strategic ally in the region. Former Ambassador Christopher R. Hill hasn't stopped putting oil on fire since North Korea's first nuclear test. For the White House, any diversion could help before November 7 mid-term elections.
So Roh Moo-hyun decided to protect the peninsula from this bilateral dead-end and announced the subject a purely intra-korean matter right before Condi Rice's visit in Seoul, without warning his closest advisors - especially those working on the Secretary of State's agenda.
Roh politely removes the US, Japan, Russia and China from the landscape, but also the UN, even if all voted resolutions will carefully be respected. Korean medias criticize the way secretary general elect Ban Ki-moon is cast away by his own Government the very week of his election at the head of the United Nations Organization, but this could prove to be a very smart way of helping Ban prove his independence from his country.
In the short term, I cannot see what can prevent NK from setting another nuclear test. In the medium term, Kim's regime will not survive. In a not so far future, Korea will face yet another nuclear neighbor : remilitarized Japan.
Right now, South should meet with North with the blessing of Beijing. For the time being, the 6-party talks should at least officially shrink to a 2-party-plus talks. Just to remind what's at stake if Korea as a whole collapses.
So Roh Moo-hyun decided to protect the peninsula from this bilateral dead-end and announced the subject a purely intra-korean matter right before Condi Rice's visit in Seoul, without warning his closest advisors - especially those working on the Secretary of State's agenda.
Roh politely removes the US, Japan, Russia and China from the landscape, but also the UN, even if all voted resolutions will carefully be respected. Korean medias criticize the way secretary general elect Ban Ki-moon is cast away by his own Government the very week of his election at the head of the United Nations Organization, but this could prove to be a very smart way of helping Ban prove his independence from his country.
In the short term, I cannot see what can prevent NK from setting another nuclear test. In the medium term, Kim's regime will not survive. In a not so far future, Korea will face yet another nuclear neighbor : remilitarized Japan.
Right now, South should meet with North with the blessing of Beijing. For the time being, the 6-party talks should at least officially shrink to a 2-party-plus talks. Just to remind what's at stake if Korea as a whole collapses.
20060517
Red blogule to Korea's hubs - meanwhile, in China...
While Busan, Incheon and several Seoul areas compete to become Asia's next hub, China plays "baduk" at a much larger level in order to host the future center of Korea.
Claiming Korea's cultural heritage is not enough. Even if their army of revisionist historians don't succeed in putting Koguryo on the Map of China, Beijing's strategic planners will use their multitudes to build a Great Wall of Korea on Chinese soil.
This future "Korean triangle" is meant to become even more powerful than Shanghai. The bay around Dalian being safe from freezing winters, it can compete with both Incheon and Busan and become the ideal spot for the future Eurasian railways terminals - no need to bother completing these silly inter-korean lines boys, we're taking care of everything from Motherland. Look, the "Bay of Korea" bathes our shores, we're not like those naughty Japanese imperialists who renamed the Sea of Korea "Sea of Japan" or worse, called Dokdo "Takeshima" as a tribute to their colonial craft (they say "bamboo island" comes from the shapes of the rocks but we all know how bamboo grows : Takeshima doesn't describe this dust on the sea but celebrates the first implantation of the Empire on a foreign soil).
China's building the ideal home for Koreans, leveraging on its strong local ethnic minority and intending to lure natives from the Korean Peninsula : either from the North (escaping from Hell), or from the South (escaping from a country with the World's lowest fertility rate, an insane education system and fewer opportunities in general) in a XXIst Century wild West gold rush (by the way, while we're at it, why not have some drafting sessions in LA's Koreatown as well ?). Thats a serious threat for a country whose most valuable assets are intangible or related to the very character of its population.
To make it even worse, the recent politico-military deal clinched between Japan and the US further precipitates Seoul in the welcoming arms of Beijing. And Korea can't find much disinterested support from its other giant neighbor Russia. Kofi Annan won't be of much help to Roh Moo-hyun for a better respect of fair play in the region. Korea needs to federate other Asian nations worried about China's and Japan's neo-imperialism, become a herald of cultural, economical and political diversity in the region... without angering Beijing too much because it can't afford it.
Korea can become a hub after all. But only if its major cities play as a team instead of competing with each other.
Claiming Korea's cultural heritage is not enough. Even if their army of revisionist historians don't succeed in putting Koguryo on the Map of China, Beijing's strategic planners will use their multitudes to build a Great Wall of Korea on Chinese soil.
This future "Korean triangle" is meant to become even more powerful than Shanghai. The bay around Dalian being safe from freezing winters, it can compete with both Incheon and Busan and become the ideal spot for the future Eurasian railways terminals - no need to bother completing these silly inter-korean lines boys, we're taking care of everything from Motherland. Look, the "Bay of Korea" bathes our shores, we're not like those naughty Japanese imperialists who renamed the Sea of Korea "Sea of Japan" or worse, called Dokdo "Takeshima" as a tribute to their colonial craft (they say "bamboo island" comes from the shapes of the rocks but we all know how bamboo grows : Takeshima doesn't describe this dust on the sea but celebrates the first implantation of the Empire on a foreign soil).
China's building the ideal home for Koreans, leveraging on its strong local ethnic minority and intending to lure natives from the Korean Peninsula : either from the North (escaping from Hell), or from the South (escaping from a country with the World's lowest fertility rate, an insane education system and fewer opportunities in general) in a XXIst Century wild West gold rush (by the way, while we're at it, why not have some drafting sessions in LA's Koreatown as well ?). Thats a serious threat for a country whose most valuable assets are intangible or related to the very character of its population.
To make it even worse, the recent politico-military deal clinched between Japan and the US further precipitates Seoul in the welcoming arms of Beijing. And Korea can't find much disinterested support from its other giant neighbor Russia. Kofi Annan won't be of much help to Roh Moo-hyun for a better respect of fair play in the region. Korea needs to federate other Asian nations worried about China's and Japan's neo-imperialism, become a herald of cultural, economical and political diversity in the region... without angering Beijing too much because it can't afford it.
Korea can become a hub after all. But only if its major cities play as a team instead of competing with each other.
20060502
Red blogule to Japan's neofascists - forget Takeshima and Mandchukuo
On April 31st, Young People's Comrades black trucks would cruise Tokyo, with mock missiles on their rooftops and loudspeakers blasting calls for young warriors to join the neo-fascist organisation, a member of the far-far-right Zen-Ai Kaigi alliance.
"Japan Youth" ? I could only see septuagenarians in those trucks ; the kind who long for the Showa era (not for the late Hirohito's granddaddy image but for the early Hirohito's imperialist spree), their don Corleone faces as animated as that of Leonid Brezhnev on his last May the 1st.
Meanwhile, the site of the MOFA (Ministry Of Foreign Affairs)* maintains its utterly revisionist position regarding the Korean islets of Dokdo :
"(1) Based on historical facts and international law, it is apparent that Takeshima is an integral part of Japan's sovereign territory.
(2) The occupation of Takeshima by the Republic of Korea is an illegal occupation undertaken with absolutely no basis whatsoever in international law. Any measures taken with regard to Takeshima by the Republic of Korea based on such an illegal occupation have no legal justification."
Here are the actual historical facts :
1) Indeed, Dokdo happened to be Japanese in the past, but only during occupation periods, each time Japan would aggress its peaceful neighbor. If Japan claims Dokdo, it must also claim the whole Korean peninsula.
2) Following a long tradition of eradication of anything Korean, Japan renamed Dokdo "Takeshima" in 1905. Like all the names changed during the occupation period ended with WWII, it was turned back to its original name at the Korean independance. Note that the "Sea of Japan" was never renamed "Sea of Korea".
3) Significantly enough, Dokdo means "remote island" in Korean, which reflects the difficulty for this country to defend this couple of rocks far away from its shores.
4) Significantly enough, Takeshima means "bamboo island" in Japanese, which seems absurd considering the fact not much can grow on these rocky islets but piles of guano. On the other hand, the name makes perfect sense if you know how bamboo reproduces : by its very name, "Takeshima", perfectly symbolizes the first implantation of imperial Japan on Korean soil during the 1905 wave (Dokdo was the first piece of land conquerred).
President Noh Moo-hyun asked PM Junichiro Koizumi to take his responsibilies and demanded the issue to be settled for good. I would love Mr Koizumi to be totally transparent : either he ends this sick fascist revival or he pleases the country's neo-imperialist lobbies and claims back the full Empire.
I'm sure Beijing (another expert in revisionism) will appreciate when Tokyo demands the liberation of Mandchukuo...
"Japan Youth" ? I could only see septuagenarians in those trucks ; the kind who long for the Showa era (not for the late Hirohito's granddaddy image but for the early Hirohito's imperialist spree), their don Corleone faces as animated as that of Leonid Brezhnev on his last May the 1st.
Meanwhile, the site of the MOFA (Ministry Of Foreign Affairs)* maintains its utterly revisionist position regarding the Korean islets of Dokdo :
"(1) Based on historical facts and international law, it is apparent that Takeshima is an integral part of Japan's sovereign territory.
(2) The occupation of Takeshima by the Republic of Korea is an illegal occupation undertaken with absolutely no basis whatsoever in international law. Any measures taken with regard to Takeshima by the Republic of Korea based on such an illegal occupation have no legal justification."
Here are the actual historical facts :
1) Indeed, Dokdo happened to be Japanese in the past, but only during occupation periods, each time Japan would aggress its peaceful neighbor. If Japan claims Dokdo, it must also claim the whole Korean peninsula.
2) Following a long tradition of eradication of anything Korean, Japan renamed Dokdo "Takeshima" in 1905. Like all the names changed during the occupation period ended with WWII, it was turned back to its original name at the Korean independance. Note that the "Sea of Japan" was never renamed "Sea of Korea".
3) Significantly enough, Dokdo means "remote island" in Korean, which reflects the difficulty for this country to defend this couple of rocks far away from its shores.
4) Significantly enough, Takeshima means "bamboo island" in Japanese, which seems absurd considering the fact not much can grow on these rocky islets but piles of guano. On the other hand, the name makes perfect sense if you know how bamboo reproduces : by its very name, "Takeshima", perfectly symbolizes the first implantation of imperial Japan on Korean soil during the 1905 wave (Dokdo was the first piece of land conquerred).
President Noh Moo-hyun asked PM Junichiro Koizumi to take his responsibilies and demanded the issue to be settled for good. I would love Mr Koizumi to be totally transparent : either he ends this sick fascist revival or he pleases the country's neo-imperialist lobbies and claims back the full Empire.
I'm sure Beijing (another expert in revisionism) will appreciate when Tokyo demands the liberation of Mandchukuo...
20050919
White blogule to South Korea's diplomacy
It ain't over till it's over but at least North Korea declared they would cease their nuclear weapon program. The US envoy, former Ambassador to Seoul Christopher Hill, eventually accepted South Korea's proposal : light water is better than heavy fuel.
The Seoul-Beijing team defeated the Washington-Tokyo axis. Beyond nationalities, doves won over hawks in a most crucial part of the world.
Let's see what Karen Hughes can spin out of this new insult to the Bush doctrine.
Furthermore, let's see how far Seoul can go : pleasing Pyongyang was an easy job, tackling the human rights issue a much tougher challenge.
The Seoul-Beijing team defeated the Washington-Tokyo axis. Beyond nationalities, doves won over hawks in a most crucial part of the world.
Let's see what Karen Hughes can spin out of this new insult to the Bush doctrine.
Furthermore, let's see how far Seoul can go : pleasing Pyongyang was an easy job, tackling the human rights issue a much tougher challenge.
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