KIM Jong-il: four weddings and a funeral

So as expected, KIM Jong-il died. A bit early to secure the transition with KIM Jong-un, who might be tempted to show his skills to those who doubt he's got whatever that is North Korean leaders are supposed to have.

Physically, Junior already used plastic surgery to improve his Kimilsungist looks, let's hope he won't try to sport his dad's weirdo hairdo now.

Character-wise, Jong-un is rumored to be more ill-tempered than his brothers Jong-nam and Jong-chol, respectively a Disneyland and an Eric Clapton fan. But compared to the Late Dear Leader, he's more permeated with such capitalist perversions as burgers. And it starts showing, particularly in a country where the population is maintained in a constant state of starvation.

As far as leadership is concerned, Jong-un didn't quite pass the cut last year: the young lad has been credited with the latest attack on South Korean soil but doesn't seem much of an expert, judging by the way he uses binoculars...

So we'll follow KIM Jong-il's funerals (after four weddings, Hugh can grant him that**). And eminent Pyeongyangologists will watch closely: who will keep a seat when the music stops? Isn't CHANG Sung-taek a trifle too old for musical chairs? Will Beijing-friendly people get promoted in the army*?

In South Korea, a North Korean Spring or Winter would have consequences for the 2012 elections: more tensions could become a problem for AHN Cheol-soo (commander in chief beyond cyberwars?), and boost conservatives, but not necessarily PARK Geun-hye (would Koreans vote for a woman in times of crisis, and one used to operating only behind the scenes at that?).

By the way. This week-end, LEE Myung-bak visited Japan, and devoted the bulk of his talks with Yoshihiko Noda to the issue of Japanese military sexual slavery, following Wednesday's successful demonstration (see "One Thousand Wednesdays"). But if he's consistent, the President must also reactivate the Truth and Reconciliation Commission: every country must face its own past, particularly when it expects the same from its neighbors.


blogules 2011
(originally on Seoul Village: "KIM Jong-il passes. To KIM Jong-un. Presumably.")
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*... and the invisible 'hanschluss' continue? see "China-North Korea : the Great Hanschluss still the base case scenario", and previous posts about NK

** BTW 'Four weddings and a funeral' got released in 1994, the same year KIM Il-sung died.

---
20111230 update: corrected the title (which I changed while editing). Obviously, I never quite got used to Kim Jong-il. And KJI sounds more than ever like a name from the past.

North Korea's lost Won

This is not Pyongyang's first reevaluation, but it's the first time the regime acts so recklessly in that matter.

The population was granted one week to replace their old wons with the new and improved currency. Failure to do so would leave them with almost worthless notes (1 new NK won = 100 old NK won).

Officially, the aim of the game is to crack down abuses from people perverted by capitalism, or at least the little of it which made its way into what was left of the local economy. No one will come with a lot of money without good explanations.

But the actual profiteers of NK's corrupt system (in particular the nomenklatura) already changed their cash into US dollars or Chinese yuans, well ahead of the announcement. The only victims will be those who will opt for transparency.

This measure follows closings of parallel markets, safety valves for populations every day more left to their own devices... or rather lack of.

According to South Korean medias, the country would be on the verge of revolt, and streets littered with old bank notes deliberately torn in the middle of Kim Jong-il's portraits. Military forces received the order to shoot at sight anyone who tries to escape the last Stalinian paradise.

If Pyongyang authorities really want to accelerate takeover from China*, that's a smart move...

blogules 2009 - also on blogules V.F. ("La Coree du Nord evalue mal les effets de sa reevaluation") and on Seoul Village ("North Korea's lost Won")

* see "KIM Jong-il's bridge to nowhere"

Keep your eye on the ball, Barack !

Cartoon of the day :



"Back to you in a minute, Mahmoud... Benjamin too".


follows "Netanyahu's al Aqsa intifada" and "Khamenei's death wish"

Netanyahu's al Aqsa intifada

Benjamin Netanyahu has a sense for timing. To answer Obama's ultimatum on illegal colonies on Palestinian ground, he waited for the POTUS to be silenced by uproar in Iran*.

Emboldened by the crisis in Tehran, Tel Aviv hawks pushed ahead, financing new settlements. Internal Security Minister Yitzhak Aharanovitch's visit to al Aqsa Mosque was supposed to mirror that of then Interior Minister Ariel Sharon to the Temple Mount back in 2000, which ignited the Second Intifada. Only Sharon didn't even dare entering the Mosque. Avigdor Lieberman's friend did, and his team went as far as exlaining that "the intention of the visit was to see how the police would deploy in case of an emergency"**.

The Temple Mount has been under considerable threat for years, several extreme right Israeli activist groups undermining its very foundations and claiming this sacred Muslim ground as theirs. One could hardly find any more controversial thing to do at this defining moment.

As advertised during his campaign, Benjamin Netanyahu is governing the most extreme way. His intentions are crystal clear : fueling hatred, destroying all peace attempts, strengthening radicals within Israeli as well as Palestinian ranks... business as usual for a post-Rabin Israeli PM. The difference : Netanyahu must act even bolder than his predecessors to maintain his coalition.

Joe Biden mentioned a test during the first 6 months of Obama's presidency ? Here we are. Die hard fundamentalists are putting their very existence in the balance in both Iran and Israel... And oh, Kim Jong-il plans another missile launch to celebrate July the 4th. Take your ticket and get in the line.

* see previous blogules on post-Bush Israel and Iran, and "Justice in America, No Democracy in Israel ?".
** from IslamOnline.net and "Occupied Jerusalem" : "Palestinians Blast Provocative Al-Aqsa Visit"

Faith, lies and videotapes

Mitt Romney may lose the primaries because he's a Mormon supporting religious diversity and mutual respect*. Mike Huckabee may win the primaries because he's a moron supporting creationism and ID.

Guess what : the case for Iran was forged, intel cooked** - and the CIA even destroyed evidencies of Amerika's other wrongdoings : videotapes of torture sessions that could have revealed the faces of CIA agents. Because in Amerika, denouncing torture is a crime... unlike giving names of such weaselish peacemongers as Valerie Plame.

After signing so many pacts with the Devil, George W. Bush decides to write a letter to Kim Jong-il. It starts with "Dear Mr. Chairman", as if North Korea's dictator were a member of his base of "the Haves and the Have-mores". Dubya is just buying time : let me have a cleaner sheet with this atheist "pigmy" - I don't care if I lose face in Asia, all I want is you to let me finish this little crusade of mine in the Middle East before my mandate is over.

This is Amerika all right : this country has lost its values to the point it cannot even consider impeaching its most dangerous criminal.

* this absurd witch hunt is still on, and the reverse burden of proof remains to be implemented. As I pleaded before (see "Universal Declaration of Independence From Fundamentalism " - 20070809) : "The aim is not to please atheists and condemn believers but to expose fundamentalists, especially among those who are supposed to defend justice, education or democracy. You don’t want to ignite a witch hunt the McCarthy way (are you or have you ever been a fundamentalist ?), but rather to promote transparency over the hypocrisy and confusion fundamentalists are feeding upon. I’m asking for a much needed reverse burden of proof : nowadays, lawmakers are terrorized by fundamentalists and it should be the other way round. Instead of harassing the bulk of the candidates with questions regarding their private life, we should be forcing fundamentalists to come out in the open, give democracy the lead over the theocratic agenda. Lawmakers shouldn’t be compelled to demonstrate confusingly why they are good believers, they just should clearly tell that they don’t support fundamentalism and that, whatever they believe in, religion should not mix with politics in this country. Ultimately, if some people want religion to rule politics, let them found their own party like they do in other countries."
** nothing new under the sun (see "Iran : who wants war and why" - 20070925)

Discussion - 3 challenges for Korea

(my answer to a question regarding the critical challenges Korea will face in the 10 years to come)

I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.

The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)

The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.

Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.

Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.

White blogule to Roh Moo-hyun - protecting Korea from the US

The Bush Administration has been working on a violent collapse of Kim Jong-il's regime for years. Bush even refused proposals by Pyongyang dovishest hawks to make peace and step by step becoming a strategic ally in the region. Former Ambassador Christopher R. Hill hasn't stopped putting oil on fire since North Korea's first nuclear test. For the White House, any diversion could help before November 7 mid-term elections.

So Roh Moo-hyun decided to protect the peninsula from this bilateral dead-end and announced the subject a purely intra-korean matter right before Condi Rice's visit in Seoul, without warning his closest advisors - especially those working on the Secretary of State's agenda.

Roh politely removes the US, Japan, Russia and China from the landscape, but also the UN, even if all voted resolutions will carefully be respected. Korean medias criticize the way secretary general elect Ban Ki-moon is cast away by his own Government the very week of his election at the head of the United Nations Organization, but this could prove to be a very smart way of helping Ban prove his independence from his country.

In the short term, I cannot see what can prevent NK from setting another nuclear test. In the medium term, Kim's regime will not survive. In a not so far future, Korea will face yet another nuclear neighbor : remilitarized Japan.

Right now, South should meet with North with the blessing of Beijing. For the time being, the 6-party talks should at least officially shrink to a 2-party-plus talks. Just to remind what's at stake if Korea as a whole collapses.

Red blogule to Kim Jong-il and to the six party talks

Unsurprisingly, North Korea proceeded to its first nuclear trial. An underground fart worth 4.2 on Richter's scale. Just loud enough for people around to get the message without the poisonous stench. In the dead middle of key commitee meetings in China, right during Abe's first visit to South Korea, and a few days after the quasi-confirmation of Ban Ki-moon as the UN's next secretary-general.

Kim Jong-il is guilty. For maintaining his country in terror, absolute denial of liberty and basic human rights, for imposing starvation, torture, deportations and other sweets to a people brought back to the Middle Age under the rule of a totalitarian sect. For having no other goal than preserving his own liberty, whatever the consequences.

South Korea is guilty. For avoiding the touchy "human rights" topic in order not to hurt the feelings of its neighbor. For balking in front of a reunification that would cost thousands of times more than Germany's from an humanitarian as well as an economical, social and political point of view.

Russia is guilty. For exporting the Stalinian model in its most perverse version. For nurturing a monster in the middle of a region under American influence.

China is guilty. For not seizing the opportunity of Russia's collapse in order to cool Kim's regime down when it was the weakest. For strenghtening militarism instead of encouraging reforms. And of course for wanting a Korean reunification INSIDE China.

Japan is guilty. For doing everything in order to delay a reunification that would cast it away from the center of the New Far East. For sabotaging each and every progress in the six-party talks as efficiently as its American friends.

USA are guilty. For letting their hawkiest wings crush any opportunity or opening, for wanting the messiest degradation of the situation, for purposedly strenghtening Kim's regime in its most diabolical sides. For refusing bilateral talks and becoming the most negative player in these 6 party talks, even before Kim himself. For knowingly provoquing the nuclear crisis and eventually collecting a much awaited diversion right before the November 2006 elections : "hey lads, see what kind of mess we prevented by removing Saddam from power ? see what happens when you let the UN or the IAEA take care of the WMD proliferation control ?"

The UN is guilty indeed. For relying on the goodwill of the United States of America, China and Russia for any decision going beyond the purchase of staples for the 8th floor.

Let's hope last night's trials will lead to a positive opening. Just like India and Pakistan did before declaring PAT instead of CHESSMATE.

Red blogule to 45 mn of war-hole fame - hopping without hope

If you want a good thrill you can either pay Richard Branson about $200,000 for a 5 mn wild ride in space or have the US Government pay you a $???M 45 mn trip to Iraq.

So Condolezza Rice enjoyed her 45 minutes of war-hole fame. The time to kiss Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad on a deserted Baghdad airport, expose a cute armored plate not much bigger than a Madeleine K. Albright pin, and be shot a couple of times. By embedded photographers and cameramen.

All smiles.

Like Kim Jong-il waving at an absent audience in a prefab North Korean program.

Red blogule to the "oil for fools" program

- "Am I my brother's keeper ?"
Jeb should answer "sorry Georgie but I'm affraid you ain't. Bush '08 relies on the Architect's craft again. Say... what have you done for America ?"
Terror is on the rise (and the next generation gets all the motivation it needs from Uncle Sam), WMDs are blooming in North Korea and still nowhere to be found in Iraq, and George II is almost rejoicing to the perspective of using anti-nuclear devices against his fellow tyrant Kim Jong-Il. Besides, lies and torture have been institutionalized by Amerika and the "age of diplomacy" is about destroying the international bodies the Bush Administration snubbed during the first mandate (in order to get rid of these embarrassing bodies, Bolton is supposed to act as a UN-bomber and Wolfie to take the money and run). The Axis of Evil got stronger, the Axis of Weasels exhibited courage and King Dubya is still leading the Axis of Liars, a lame duck asking for a few lame bucks...
Yet, Neocondi still has a crush on "my husband", and her disdainous snarl keeps resembling that of Lobby Dick by the day.
Barf bag anyone ?