blogules 2015
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
20151214
SHCOMP!
I knew it! SHCOMP or NASDAQ are not stock exchange index symbols, but onomatopoeia invented by the late Don Martin:
blogules 2015
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!! and Twitter (@stephanemot, @blogules)
Follow Us
blogules 2015
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!! and Twitter (@stephanemot, @blogules)
Follow Us
20111027
Of haircut and hair-splitting trends in Europe
Here are the main decisions taken in Brussels by Eurozone leaders :
- Greece is saved : since George Papandreou was already almost bald, banks will get the haircuts. And as the first country to adopt the new SubEuro, Greece shall inaugurate S&P's new rating systems (phi beta kappAAA)
- Italy is saved : Silvio Berlusconi's ratings will not be downgraded (BungabungAAA+)
- France is saved : andouillettes will keep their most attractive labels (AAAAA)
- Germany is saved : Angela Merkel will control the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). She already mandated her new finance minister, Herman Cain, to implement his latest 9-9-9 formula (9% Bitburger, 9% Tsingtao, 9% CaipirinhAAA+)
- the UK is saved : David Cameron will become King of the Northern half of the NonEuroZone and the nation enjoy its specific ratings (USAAA-)
- the Euro is saved : as soon as Mario Draghi succeeds Jean-Claude Trichet as head of the ECB, all junk bonds shall be handled by Naples Waste Managment Offshore Limited (CamorrAAA+)
Not everyone agrees.
Ever the rebel and the haircut and hair-splitting diva, Paris Hilton decided to initiate the Occupy Rodeo Drive movement. And in order to fend off police forces who may try to prevent her from raiding shops, she can count on her latest Fendi Hit Bag.
blogules 2011
- Greece is saved : since George Papandreou was already almost bald, banks will get the haircuts. And as the first country to adopt the new SubEuro, Greece shall inaugurate S&P's new rating systems (phi beta kappAAA)
- Italy is saved : Silvio Berlusconi's ratings will not be downgraded (BungabungAAA+)
- France is saved : andouillettes will keep their most attractive labels (AAAAA)
- Germany is saved : Angela Merkel will control the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). She already mandated her new finance minister, Herman Cain, to implement his latest 9-9-9 formula (9% Bitburger, 9% Tsingtao, 9% CaipirinhAAA+)
- the UK is saved : David Cameron will become King of the Northern half of the NonEuroZone and the nation enjoy its specific ratings (USAAA-)
- the Euro is saved : as soon as Mario Draghi succeeds Jean-Claude Trichet as head of the ECB, all junk bonds shall be handled by Naples Waste Managment Offshore Limited (CamorrAAA+)
Not everyone agrees.
Ever the rebel and the haircut and hair-splitting diva, Paris Hilton decided to initiate the Occupy Rodeo Drive movement. And in order to fend off police forces who may try to prevent her from raiding shops, she can count on her latest Fendi Hit Bag.
blogules 2011
20110728
US debt : Fools House
The debt-ceiling deadblock can be easily summed up this way : while Barack Obama is trying to prevent the economy from collapsing, John Boehner is trying to prevent the Republican party from imploding.
Of course, as we well know (see "GOP: time to split"), the said implosion started with the 2004 elections, but US voters are just beginning to understand the GOP dilemma : this party cannot at the same time win the 2012 elections and save its soul.
The only way of saving face without caving in would be to submit for vote an absurd proposal bound to crash, and to blame Democrats for the failure.
Well US voters proved that they could be fooled once (giving Newt Gingrich the right to torpedo the budget during the mid 90s), and even twice (giving GWB the right to nuke America's value and economy for four more years during the mid 2000s).
At least twice.
The other day I watched Tim Pawlenty trying to sell, on CNN's "State Of The Union", the idea that they'd been fooled one more time by Obama because the deficit tripled under his first term.
But Candy Crowley was not fooled. And she kindly reminded Pawlenty of the 2008 situation, when only he and the John McCain he campaigned for believed the US economy to be still "fundamentally sound".
Unlike Tim Pawlenty, John Boehner is not a fool.
Just a liar.
blogules 2011
Of course, as we well know (see "GOP: time to split"), the said implosion started with the 2004 elections, but US voters are just beginning to understand the GOP dilemma : this party cannot at the same time win the 2012 elections and save its soul.
The only way of saving face without caving in would be to submit for vote an absurd proposal bound to crash, and to blame Democrats for the failure.
Well US voters proved that they could be fooled once (giving Newt Gingrich the right to torpedo the budget during the mid 90s), and even twice (giving GWB the right to nuke America's value and economy for four more years during the mid 2000s).
At least twice.
The other day I watched Tim Pawlenty trying to sell, on CNN's "State Of The Union", the idea that they'd been fooled one more time by Obama because the deficit tripled under his first term.
But Candy Crowley was not fooled. And she kindly reminded Pawlenty of the 2008 situation, when only he and the John McCain he campaigned for believed the US economy to be still "fundamentally sound".
Unlike Tim Pawlenty, John Boehner is not a fool.
Just a liar.
blogules 2011
20110414
China-North Korea : the Great Hanschluss still the base case scenario
Very interesting conference yesterday at The Plaza Hotel Seoul : "Responding to the Consolidation of Economic Cooperation between North Korea and China" was sponsored by the Korea Finance Corporation (KoFC, the State-run investment arm), and Maeil Business Maeil Business Newspaper (mbn).
For its 18th edition, this North Korea Policy Forum conference became an international seminar, with China, Japan, and the USA providing keynote speakers (bonus: an opening remark - in Korean - by US Ambassador Kathleen STEPHENS, ahead of Hillary CLINTON's visit later this week). Unfortunately, neither Russia (definitely below the radar regarding the issue), nor DPRK (for obvious reasons) were represented.
This Four Party Talk was observed by a captive audience (see exhibit A*), in spite of a very dense agenda (see exhibit B, the full program below**) which didn't leave much time for Q&A nor discussions.
What made this conference really exciting were the differences in appreciation of a definitely complex and tricky situation. And at this game, US players spoke their minds out quite freely, even if some Koreans expressed very clearly their concerns to "Mr China" a.k.a. Professor Zhu Feng, absolutely brilliant in his good cop routine : what engagement ? we're not engaged to North Korea, just good neighbors tired of your family affairs - yes, KIM Jong-il is a bad guy and a headache for us as well, but he's your brother, and brothers don't kill each other - yes, these days, our Chinese government is rather conservative, and is pervasively locking key entry points across North Korea, but the colonization of NK by China is a ludicrous conspiration theory - yes, we're doing every day more business here, but as Pr KIM Chul noticed, our entrepreneurs are so much struggling with their local partners that most are curbing their enthusiasm...
Of course, no one mentioned the Northeast Project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences : this was about business, with politics clearly off-limits. As if PRC-DPRK relations were apolitical. As if policies had nothing to do with politics...
Anyway, I had fun and would very much like to attend the next edition - maybe in a different order (first the historical background, then the trends, and finally the various scenarii / recos), and in a different format (ie three panelists max for each topic, a lunch between two power sessions instead of a dinner after a marathon).
By then, chances are many more fundamental changes will have happened. If not the end of North Korea, at least a re-engagement by the South, and potentially a summit (consider the past year : Cheonan sinking and Yeonpyeong-do shelling, KIM Jong-un's promotions, Middle East uprisings, NK reviving its nuke program, Japan spicing North East Asia nuclear nightmares with a new flavor, or the day before the conference a mini-crisis over Mt Gumgang tours...).
If you're familiar with this excuse for a blog, you already know my opinion on North Korea*** :
1) Technically, the North Korean regime is already dead. It only relied on ideology and propaganda, the first lost its substance and the second its efficiency in the eyes of a growing proportion of the population. A little bit like in Iran, ailing and corrupt leaders progressively outsource the power to brutal military forces. At this stage, masses remain overwhelmed and change remains driven by State leaders, but popular rebellions are getting bolder every year, and 450,000 North Koreans have now a mobile phone (reaching far beyond the first nomenklatura circles).
2) The statu quo, or what I called the "Juche line" is not an option - change is coming. For the official end, my base case scenario evolved over time : until the late nineties I believed in an "Albania scenario" (brutal collapse, masses fleeing the country, cult of personality victims abused by con people and more or less religious cults...), but spectacular initiatives from China followed by the highly controversial Northeast Project led me to believe in the more subtle, progressive, and pervasive "Hanschluss scenario". A scenario confirmed by the ambitious developments announced over the following 2-3 years for North East China (on schedule, as we saw yesterday during the conference) : once again, whatever the motives and whatever North Korean leaders do, they also result in artificially relocating the epicenter of Koreanity on Chinese soil, and more physically than intense revisionism about Korean history (ie Goguryo). A scenario sealed by LEE Myung-bak in 2007 : South Korea's disengagement precipitated further the North towards China, leaving no dovish alternative.
3) Of course, China doesn't need to politically integrate North Korea as another province : an unofficial vassal status easy does it, and the process seems very well engaged. Reminder : the Cheonan aggression was about internal affairs, but not between both Koreas. KIM Jong-il had first to reassess his friendship with the army, and second to get some leverage ahead of the "negociations" with the PRC. Chaperoned by CHANG Sung-taek, KIM Jong-un got the nod from Beijing : KJI's brother in law later developped a paralel FDI tool, more China-friendly than the official one. He also lost a rival in a convenient car accident. No need to read fortune cookies to understand that more high ranking officials will join the collaborators to push their luck. With the Yeonpyeong island shelling, Junior assessed his own friendship with the army (nevermind those darn binoculars). Father and son completed the pledge of allegiance with a familial pilgrimage in China, where Grand Dad KIM Il-sung himself got his education, an other way of accepting the only filiation that counts : NK's Motherland is China.
4) The Great Hanschluss is not completed yet. Both China and South Korea are also experiencing ideology crisis at home between conservatism, progressivism, and agnostic pragmatism / reform. South Korea and North Korea share more common ground than survivors of a lost era. They still share an identity and a destiny. And this is not about rejecting China, but about embracing themselves.
blogules 2011 - see also the original post on Seoul Village ("Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk")
* including yours truly (exhibit A: Stephane and Steven, alias Paris, Texas - photo by KIM Jae-hun, Maeil Business Newspaper - "北·中 교류, 일방적 원조서 시장원리로 전환") :
** The full program:
- Opening remarks : RYU Jae-han (President, KoFC), CHANG Dae-hwan (CEO, Maeil Business Newspaper), Kathleen STEPHENS (US Ambassador to South Korea)
- Panel One ("East Asian Regional Cooperation and North Korea-China Relations" and "China's Approach to North Korea: National Interests and Strategy") :
. moderator : HONG Yang-ho (former Vice-Minister of Unification)
. presenters : Matsuno SHUJI (Ritsumeikan University), John Delury (Yonsei University), Zhu Feng (Beijing University)
. panelists : LEE Chan-woo (Tokyo International University - NB: the first to entertain the audience with maps), Edward REED (from The Asia Foundation - NB : only had time to phrase the key questions, but it was worth the trip), LEE Hui-ok (Sungkyunkwan University), KIM Heung-kyu (Sungshin Women's University), KIM Yong-hyun (Dongguk University)
- Panel Two ("The Present and Future of Economic Cooperation Between North Korea and China" and "China's Growing Influence on North Korea and How South Korea Should Respond") :
. moderator : LEE Sang-man (Chairman, the Steering Committee for the North Korea Policy Forum)
. presenters : YOON Seung-hyun (Yanbian University, NEA Research Institute), Scott SNYDER (Center for US-Korea Policy), PARK Gun-il (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
. panelists : OH Seung-ryul (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies - NB: the first to mention the obvious limits of official statistics, which capture only part of exchanges between DPRK and PRC), KIM Chul (Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences), CHEONG Seong-chang (Sejong Institute), CHU Suk-yong (KoFC - Ministry of Unification), KIM Se-hyung (Chief Editor, Maeil Business Newspaper)
*** see previous posts on NK, and in particular the focus on the "Great Hanschluss" ("Great Wall of China - Anschlussing Korea (continued)" - also on blogules in English "a greater wall of china - bonus, korea inside (the great hanschluss)" and in French "La Grande Muraille de Chine à l'assaut de la Corée (l'ultime Hanschluss)")
For its 18th edition, this North Korea Policy Forum conference became an international seminar, with China, Japan, and the USA providing keynote speakers (bonus: an opening remark - in Korean - by US Ambassador Kathleen STEPHENS, ahead of Hillary CLINTON's visit later this week). Unfortunately, neither Russia (definitely below the radar regarding the issue), nor DPRK (for obvious reasons) were represented.
This Four Party Talk was observed by a captive audience (see exhibit A*), in spite of a very dense agenda (see exhibit B, the full program below**) which didn't leave much time for Q&A nor discussions.
What made this conference really exciting were the differences in appreciation of a definitely complex and tricky situation. And at this game, US players spoke their minds out quite freely, even if some Koreans expressed very clearly their concerns to "Mr China" a.k.a. Professor Zhu Feng, absolutely brilliant in his good cop routine : what engagement ? we're not engaged to North Korea, just good neighbors tired of your family affairs - yes, KIM Jong-il is a bad guy and a headache for us as well, but he's your brother, and brothers don't kill each other - yes, these days, our Chinese government is rather conservative, and is pervasively locking key entry points across North Korea, but the colonization of NK by China is a ludicrous conspiration theory - yes, we're doing every day more business here, but as Pr KIM Chul noticed, our entrepreneurs are so much struggling with their local partners that most are curbing their enthusiasm...
Of course, no one mentioned the Northeast Project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences : this was about business, with politics clearly off-limits. As if PRC-DPRK relations were apolitical. As if policies had nothing to do with politics...
Anyway, I had fun and would very much like to attend the next edition - maybe in a different order (first the historical background, then the trends, and finally the various scenarii / recos), and in a different format (ie three panelists max for each topic, a lunch between two power sessions instead of a dinner after a marathon).
By then, chances are many more fundamental changes will have happened. If not the end of North Korea, at least a re-engagement by the South, and potentially a summit (consider the past year : Cheonan sinking and Yeonpyeong-do shelling, KIM Jong-un's promotions, Middle East uprisings, NK reviving its nuke program, Japan spicing North East Asia nuclear nightmares with a new flavor, or the day before the conference a mini-crisis over Mt Gumgang tours...).
If you're familiar with this excuse for a blog, you already know my opinion on North Korea*** :
1) Technically, the North Korean regime is already dead. It only relied on ideology and propaganda, the first lost its substance and the second its efficiency in the eyes of a growing proportion of the population. A little bit like in Iran, ailing and corrupt leaders progressively outsource the power to brutal military forces. At this stage, masses remain overwhelmed and change remains driven by State leaders, but popular rebellions are getting bolder every year, and 450,000 North Koreans have now a mobile phone (reaching far beyond the first nomenklatura circles).
2) The statu quo, or what I called the "Juche line" is not an option - change is coming. For the official end, my base case scenario evolved over time : until the late nineties I believed in an "Albania scenario" (brutal collapse, masses fleeing the country, cult of personality victims abused by con people and more or less religious cults...), but spectacular initiatives from China followed by the highly controversial Northeast Project led me to believe in the more subtle, progressive, and pervasive "Hanschluss scenario". A scenario confirmed by the ambitious developments announced over the following 2-3 years for North East China (on schedule, as we saw yesterday during the conference) : once again, whatever the motives and whatever North Korean leaders do, they also result in artificially relocating the epicenter of Koreanity on Chinese soil, and more physically than intense revisionism about Korean history (ie Goguryo). A scenario sealed by LEE Myung-bak in 2007 : South Korea's disengagement precipitated further the North towards China, leaving no dovish alternative.
3) Of course, China doesn't need to politically integrate North Korea as another province : an unofficial vassal status easy does it, and the process seems very well engaged. Reminder : the Cheonan aggression was about internal affairs, but not between both Koreas. KIM Jong-il had first to reassess his friendship with the army, and second to get some leverage ahead of the "negociations" with the PRC. Chaperoned by CHANG Sung-taek, KIM Jong-un got the nod from Beijing : KJI's brother in law later developped a paralel FDI tool, more China-friendly than the official one. He also lost a rival in a convenient car accident. No need to read fortune cookies to understand that more high ranking officials will join the collaborators to push their luck. With the Yeonpyeong island shelling, Junior assessed his own friendship with the army (nevermind those darn binoculars). Father and son completed the pledge of allegiance with a familial pilgrimage in China, where Grand Dad KIM Il-sung himself got his education, an other way of accepting the only filiation that counts : NK's Motherland is China.
4) The Great Hanschluss is not completed yet. Both China and South Korea are also experiencing ideology crisis at home between conservatism, progressivism, and agnostic pragmatism / reform. South Korea and North Korea share more common ground than survivors of a lost era. They still share an identity and a destiny. And this is not about rejecting China, but about embracing themselves.
blogules 2011 - see also the original post on Seoul Village ("Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk")
* including yours truly (exhibit A: Stephane and Steven, alias Paris, Texas - photo by KIM Jae-hun, Maeil Business Newspaper - "北·中 교류, 일방적 원조서 시장원리로 전환") :
** The full program:
- Opening remarks : RYU Jae-han (President, KoFC), CHANG Dae-hwan (CEO, Maeil Business Newspaper), Kathleen STEPHENS (US Ambassador to South Korea)
- Panel One ("East Asian Regional Cooperation and North Korea-China Relations" and "China's Approach to North Korea: National Interests and Strategy") :
. moderator : HONG Yang-ho (former Vice-Minister of Unification)
. presenters : Matsuno SHUJI (Ritsumeikan University), John Delury (Yonsei University), Zhu Feng (Beijing University)
. panelists : LEE Chan-woo (Tokyo International University - NB: the first to entertain the audience with maps), Edward REED (from The Asia Foundation - NB : only had time to phrase the key questions, but it was worth the trip), LEE Hui-ok (Sungkyunkwan University), KIM Heung-kyu (Sungshin Women's University), KIM Yong-hyun (Dongguk University)
- Panel Two ("The Present and Future of Economic Cooperation Between North Korea and China" and "China's Growing Influence on North Korea and How South Korea Should Respond") :
. moderator : LEE Sang-man (Chairman, the Steering Committee for the North Korea Policy Forum)
. presenters : YOON Seung-hyun (Yanbian University, NEA Research Institute), Scott SNYDER (Center for US-Korea Policy), PARK Gun-il (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
. panelists : OH Seung-ryul (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies - NB: the first to mention the obvious limits of official statistics, which capture only part of exchanges between DPRK and PRC), KIM Chul (Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences), CHEONG Seong-chang (Sejong Institute), CHU Suk-yong (KoFC - Ministry of Unification), KIM Se-hyung (Chief Editor, Maeil Business Newspaper)
*** see previous posts on NK, and in particular the focus on the "Great Hanschluss" ("Great Wall of China - Anschlussing Korea (continued)" - also on blogules in English "a greater wall of china - bonus, korea inside (the great hanschluss)" and in French "La Grande Muraille de Chine à l'assaut de la Corée (l'ultime Hanschluss)")
20110408
GOP better than TEPCO ?
A complete risk management failure, highly radioactive outputs, but ways quicker for shutdown : the Republican Party eventually outscored Fukushima Daiichi operators. To secure their victory, John Boehner's team already reached 9.1 on Getricher's scale.
Nevertheless, TEPCO execs proved beyond the shadow of a doubt their ability to do business the way the GOP sees it :
- privileging short term profits over security ? check.
- perverting notation systems and forging documents if needed ? check.
- dodging regulations and spreading corruption around ? check.
- undermining the country's economy, ruining the company, and in the end getting a public bailout ? almost done.
Maybe I should update my old rant about the ineluctable implosion of the Grand Old ParTea : instead of "GOP : Time to Split", a final "GOP, Time to Meltdown".
blogules 2011
Nevertheless, TEPCO execs proved beyond the shadow of a doubt their ability to do business the way the GOP sees it :
- privileging short term profits over security ? check.
- perverting notation systems and forging documents if needed ? check.
- dodging regulations and spreading corruption around ? check.
- undermining the country's economy, ruining the company, and in the end getting a public bailout ? almost done.
Maybe I should update my old rant about the ineluctable implosion of the Grand Old ParTea : instead of "GOP : Time to Split", a final "GOP, Time to Meltdown".
blogules 2011
20091226
Hatoyama's Christmas gift to Japanese extreme right
As a Christmas gift to local ultranationalists, the Japanese Government decided to give another hard push in favor of bold revisionism. As usual, school textbooks are used as a vehicle for promoting the idea that Dokdo belongs to the Great Empire. And as usual, the Korean Government denounced the infamy (see "Seoul hits Tokyo's new Dokdo stance" - JoongAng Daily 20091226).
This comes not as a surprise but as a disappointment : Hatoyama really seemed to be willing to crush the last throes of fascism in the archipelago, his aides even leaking proofs that Dokdo didn't belonged to Japan (see "The end of Japanese imperialism"). More recently, there were even rumors that the Emperor himself would visit Korea in 2010 to formulate official apologies for past wrongs.
That made me quite nervous : last time the Emperor made a move towards reconciliation, extreme right activists would push as hard as they could, fueling mutual hatred across the region, including China and Russia.
Actually, I'd been expecting this kind of provocations, lately : Hatoyama is much weaker than a few months ago and yes, that's the economy, stupid (stimulus programs won't last eternally and 2010 seems poised to be a tough year). Obviously, his government badly needs support from people he disagrees with.
Once again, if Dokdo doesn't belong to Japan (and that's been indisputably settled for good by the official documents leaked earlier this year), talking about Takeshima has always been about Japanese politics : claiming the islets, visiting Yasukuni, rewriting history books... each provocation comes at a time the ruler is in a defensive position and needs political support at home.
Japanese politicians keep fooling their own citizens and it's high time to expose this dangerous imposture.
blogules 2009 - initially published in Seoul Village ("Revisionist schoolbooks : change has not come to Japan")
This comes not as a surprise but as a disappointment : Hatoyama really seemed to be willing to crush the last throes of fascism in the archipelago, his aides even leaking proofs that Dokdo didn't belonged to Japan (see "The end of Japanese imperialism"). More recently, there were even rumors that the Emperor himself would visit Korea in 2010 to formulate official apologies for past wrongs.
That made me quite nervous : last time the Emperor made a move towards reconciliation, extreme right activists would push as hard as they could, fueling mutual hatred across the region, including China and Russia.
Actually, I'd been expecting this kind of provocations, lately : Hatoyama is much weaker than a few months ago and yes, that's the economy, stupid (stimulus programs won't last eternally and 2010 seems poised to be a tough year). Obviously, his government badly needs support from people he disagrees with.
Once again, if Dokdo doesn't belong to Japan (and that's been indisputably settled for good by the official documents leaked earlier this year), talking about Takeshima has always been about Japanese politics : claiming the islets, visiting Yasukuni, rewriting history books... each provocation comes at a time the ruler is in a defensive position and needs political support at home.
Japanese politicians keep fooling their own citizens and it's high time to expose this dangerous imposture.
blogules 2009 - initially published in Seoul Village ("Revisionist schoolbooks : change has not come to Japan")
20091015
As if
The Dow Jones Industrial hit the 10k mark, again.
This is not the same index : General Motors or Citigroup Incorporated have gone after September 2008 (AIG left the DJI a little bit earlier). And this is not the same Bank Of America either...
So basically a makeshift index passes a symbolic mark. So what ? This new bubble is simply not sustainable. And Mr Jones cannot make much dough out of industries which often have yet to evolve.
Asia is booming, again.
And real estate bubbles keep inflating in South Korea, Hong Kong, or China. Hu Jintao wants to secure positions for his friends before the 2012 regime reshuffle, and Beijing decided to sacrifice long term economic soundness for short term growth. Seoul also refuses to deflate the housing bubble for fear of accelerating the second dip. LEE Myung-bak knows the demand will grow during the construction of all programs launched before 2008, but hopes that the hard landing will not happen under his "sit and watch".
Financial institutions are racking up profits, again.
Part of their garbage has been collected, but they keep doing business as usual : destroying value in the long term to maximize short term gains, focusing innovation on ways of bending laws, sucking money from places where investments are really needed. Total crap.
...
Three years after the downturn, one year after The Crisis, we are somehow still in denial (see "This is not a financial crisis"), and the same diagnosis applies.
There's still a lot of greedy money out there : unable to find exciting guaranteed returns (closer to 5% than to the 15-20% they were used to - not enough to hedge inflation which is bound to come back with a vengence), investors keep fueling bubbles in stocks, commodities, gold, currencies, private equities, and even real estate.
Regulation remains a dirty word and everything is done to undermine collective and comprehensive efforts to reform the system.
The question is not if but when the next wake up call comes. Before the end of the year ? H1 2010 ? Will the illusion even last until 2011 ? Will everything collapse big time in 2012 ?
Yet I'm still confident : in the long term, we are to evolve from free market to fair market.
blogules 2009
This is not the same index : General Motors or Citigroup Incorporated have gone after September 2008 (AIG left the DJI a little bit earlier). And this is not the same Bank Of America either...
So basically a makeshift index passes a symbolic mark. So what ? This new bubble is simply not sustainable. And Mr Jones cannot make much dough out of industries which often have yet to evolve.
Asia is booming, again.
And real estate bubbles keep inflating in South Korea, Hong Kong, or China. Hu Jintao wants to secure positions for his friends before the 2012 regime reshuffle, and Beijing decided to sacrifice long term economic soundness for short term growth. Seoul also refuses to deflate the housing bubble for fear of accelerating the second dip. LEE Myung-bak knows the demand will grow during the construction of all programs launched before 2008, but hopes that the hard landing will not happen under his "sit and watch".
Financial institutions are racking up profits, again.
Part of their garbage has been collected, but they keep doing business as usual : destroying value in the long term to maximize short term gains, focusing innovation on ways of bending laws, sucking money from places where investments are really needed. Total crap.
...
Three years after the downturn, one year after The Crisis, we are somehow still in denial (see "This is not a financial crisis"), and the same diagnosis applies.
There's still a lot of greedy money out there : unable to find exciting guaranteed returns (closer to 5% than to the 15-20% they were used to - not enough to hedge inflation which is bound to come back with a vengence), investors keep fueling bubbles in stocks, commodities, gold, currencies, private equities, and even real estate.
Regulation remains a dirty word and everything is done to undermine collective and comprehensive efforts to reform the system.
The question is not if but when the next wake up call comes. Before the end of the year ? H1 2010 ? Will the illusion even last until 2011 ? Will everything collapse big time in 2012 ?
Yet I'm still confident : in the long term, we are to evolve from free market to fair market.
blogules 2009
20090831
Land of the rinsing sun ?
As Taro Aso became Prime Minister, he fulfilled a personal ambition to the risk of marring his own name : Japan was bound to face tough times, and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) bound to struggle at the 2009 elections.
Base case scenario then was a 1993 style victory for the Democratic Party of Japan.
Even if a few DPJ leaders have experienced their own turpitudes over the past year, LDP took very much the expected dive. Taro Aso's era and sense of timing could be summed up by one drunken Finance Minister at a G7 summit, and record high unemployment figures published on the eve of elections.
Forget about the base case scenario : Sunday, DPJ claimed over 300 seats out of 480 at the Lower House.
Hopefully, this worst case scenario for the LDP could turn out to be the best case scenario for Japan.
Because Japan badly needs change. Not change as in "political alternation", but change as in "political and societal shift".
Before becoming a controversial Prime Minister, Taro Aso was a controversial Foreign Minister, pushing all the (extreme) right buttons to please imperialist dieharders, infuriating Chinese and Korean neighbors*, and even dispising Hiromu Nonaka, a LDP rival, for being "burakumin", a person coming from a minority. Nevermind the fact that Korean blood runs through the body of the Emperor himself.
Taro's successor Yukio Hatoyama defends burakus and Japanese of Korean origin. He fights against discrimination at home and for reconciliation with neighbors. He leads a movement in favor of stronger ties between Korea and Japan, and has a vision for both countries as natural partners in the region.
Behind this 62 year-old leader, DPJ sent to the Diet an impressive roster of young people, many of whom women, kicking out of the political landscape a collection of dinosaurs who'd be running for decades a country glued in keiretsu conservatism and bureaucracy.
These elections could mean the end of Post-War Japan and the beginning of something new. Now would be the perfect time to - at last** ! - set the record straight about what happened during and before the said war, and to get rid of the only minority that tarnishes its greatness : a dangerous clique of nostalgist and revisionist fascists.
Japan has a unique opportunity to embrace the new millenium as a great nation at peace with its neighbors, its own past, and its own citizens.
blogules 2009 (also in French : "Le Pays du Soleil Lavant ?")
* see "Taro Aso after Tzipi Livni and before... ?"
** see too many previous blogules about Japan, and why unrepentant Japan shouldn't be allowed to seat as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
Base case scenario then was a 1993 style victory for the Democratic Party of Japan.
Even if a few DPJ leaders have experienced their own turpitudes over the past year, LDP took very much the expected dive. Taro Aso's era and sense of timing could be summed up by one drunken Finance Minister at a G7 summit, and record high unemployment figures published on the eve of elections.
Forget about the base case scenario : Sunday, DPJ claimed over 300 seats out of 480 at the Lower House.
Hopefully, this worst case scenario for the LDP could turn out to be the best case scenario for Japan.
Because Japan badly needs change. Not change as in "political alternation", but change as in "political and societal shift".
Before becoming a controversial Prime Minister, Taro Aso was a controversial Foreign Minister, pushing all the (extreme) right buttons to please imperialist dieharders, infuriating Chinese and Korean neighbors*, and even dispising Hiromu Nonaka, a LDP rival, for being "burakumin", a person coming from a minority. Nevermind the fact that Korean blood runs through the body of the Emperor himself.
Taro's successor Yukio Hatoyama defends burakus and Japanese of Korean origin. He fights against discrimination at home and for reconciliation with neighbors. He leads a movement in favor of stronger ties between Korea and Japan, and has a vision for both countries as natural partners in the region.
Behind this 62 year-old leader, DPJ sent to the Diet an impressive roster of young people, many of whom women, kicking out of the political landscape a collection of dinosaurs who'd be running for decades a country glued in keiretsu conservatism and bureaucracy.
These elections could mean the end of Post-War Japan and the beginning of something new. Now would be the perfect time to - at last** ! - set the record straight about what happened during and before the said war, and to get rid of the only minority that tarnishes its greatness : a dangerous clique of nostalgist and revisionist fascists.
Japan has a unique opportunity to embrace the new millenium as a great nation at peace with its neighbors, its own past, and its own citizens.
blogules 2009 (also in French : "Le Pays du Soleil Lavant ?")
* see "Taro Aso after Tzipi Livni and before... ?"
** see too many previous blogules about Japan, and why unrepentant Japan shouldn't be allowed to seat as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
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