Alt Right Or Alt Trump?

Election Night 2016 turned out to be a dud, suspense-wise. And a 8,978 gigaton nuclear bomb otherwise.

Donald J. Trump will nominate at least the next two (sorry Ruth) Supreme Court Justices. Unless 45 pulls out another rubber mask and returns as Don Pro-Choice T. (which neither Mike Pence nor the GOP-controlled Congress would let happen), the US are bound to return to the Middle-Age on key human rights*. And maybe embrace durably the ultraconservative line, the way Israel did after the murder of Yitzhak Rabin.

The only good news of today is the hope that, at long last, the Clinton Dynasty will stop ruling the Democratic Party. We saw how Joe Biden's familial tragedy combined with Elizabeth Warren's reluctance to run against Hillary allowed a new figure to ride the Need For Change + Anything But Hillary waves, and her weaknesses to sink deeper into everybody's minds acrosss the aisle. Had Bernie Sanders won the primaries, Michael Bloomberg would have probably decided to run, and won the elections. Maybe also made a decent POTUS.

Even with Sanders and Warren on board, even with the full support of Barack and Michelle Obama at the peak of their popularity and motivation, even with a superiority in the ground and online games, Clinton couldn't carry the positive side of the force. Abandoning the rustbeltiest parts of the Democratic firewall didn't help against The Donald's one-man-show.

Nationwide, state by state, county by county... the scale of Trump's victory is scary. Way scarier and deeper than W's 2004, which Obama managed to gracefully compensate.

If Trump delivered the acceptance speech he was expected to give, he remains a dangerous, loose canon surrounded by such bad hombres as Breitbart's Steve Bannon.

And we still don't know how far the interests of people like Vladimir Putin have been pushed at the core of the world's supposedly model democracy.

Now that the Alt Right and the KKK are celebrating a victory they claim as theirs, the future of America lies in moderate Republican lawmakers. And in a new and truly uniting figure to reach for them from the Democrats' ruins.

Trump claims electoral and popular vote, the House and Senate, the Supreme Court, and a seat for Putin's SOTU address (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796265430914473985)
BREAKING - Hillary Clinton just gave a concession call to Putin (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796257288197545985)
Will Obama hand the nuclear and @POTUS twitter codes to Trump? (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796255962143174656)

The new POTUS has big hands... and his name is Putin (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796242317216595968)

BREAKING: USA legalizes recreational votes - #RIPUSDemocracy (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796235476990496768)
The only good news today: DNC is freed from Clinton rule - Hopefully (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796235045161734144)
Duterte, Shinzo Abe, Donald Trump - When democracy votes against democracy (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796232108758863872)

Why did Hillary Clinton run in the first place? (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796194014072422400)
USA pulls a Brexit. Donald Trump will nominate at least the next 2 Supreme Court judges. Democracy loses - NB Jake Tapper concedes to Trump (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796193850842705921)
Key projection: CNN dream team to keep their lock on Election Night (Wolf Blitzer, Jake Tapper, Dana Bash, John King) (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796157101730955266)

blogules 2016
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* we have yet to grasp the full extent of the damage already done down the ballot (e.g. death penalty restored in NE)

"A word about what we should not do"

This from the Trump Campaign: "Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on."

This. Not just yet another abomination slipping from the Provocateur in Chief's mouthpiece, but a formal, written statement published on his official channel. 

This. After the Paris and San Bernardino shootings, after Marine Le Pen's victory in French regional elections, after Obama's speech, after the rise of Ted Cruz in Iowa polls, after a call from Holocaust survivors to welcome refugees in the US...

This. Even in the US, people usually hide behind masks to make such hatemongering calls.

"What is going on" is that radicals once again set the agenda, and Donald Trump is playing their game.

"What is going on" is that France and the United States send the worst message to the world.

"What is going on" is that yes, the leaders of our democracies are weak. 

Francois Hollande is weak. Unlike after the Charlie Hebdo shootings, he chose the nationalist / military only path to pose as a strong leader days ahead of elections poised to boost the extreme right, and of course it backfired.

Barack Obama is weak because there's not much he can do: his predecessor already weakened America and democracy worldwide, and he failed to keep a majority to support him at home. No wonder the first half of his address to the nation* fell flat.

But Barack Obama is not weak when he remains clear (NSA discrepancies notwithstanding) about what America should not do, and that was the second half of his speech. America will stop being America if it follows the wishes of her most radical extremists, which happen to be exactly what ISIS wants.

I'm not sure a majority of Americans got that part of the message.

What I'm sure of, is that ISIS needs friends like Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, or Donald Trump.
blogules 2015
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* "Address to the nation by the President" (White House - 20151206)

Francois Hollande vs Extreme Right? Been There, Done Nothing

France's extreme right party Front National claimed almost 25% of the votes at the European election, finishing for the first time as the first party in the country, four points ahead of the UMP. The ruling Socialist Party didn't even reach 14%.


French PM Manuel Valls described the results as an "earthquake". They're even worse than 12 years ago, when Jean-Marie Le Pen finished second at the first round of the Presidential Elections, kicking socialist PM Lionel Jospin out of the race for less than 200,000 ballots. Jacques Chirac went on to win the second round, but a few months later his gaullist, conservative RPR merged into the new center-right UMP. Surprisingly, the humiliated PS refused to reform, and it had something to do with the "leadership" of its First Secretary Francois Hollande, a person who loves to talk about change, but has never done anything to prove it.

When Hollande got elected in 2012, I wrote "France refuses to change" because there was no better way to sum it up. The scariest thing is not the earthquake, but the desperate flatness of French democracy's EEG.

Francois Hollande vs Extreme Right? Been There, Done Nothing
2002 Presidential Elections in France: Le Pen reaches 2nd round
2014 European Elections in France: Front National the 1st political party
Francois Hollande 1998-2008: First Secretary of the French Socialist Party
Francois Hollande 2012-2017: President of the French Republic
2002: Gaullist, conservative RPR merges into new center-right party UMP
2014: UMP evolves into???

When democracy stalls, extremes always win. And the FN didn't even have to modify its DNA to win: Jean-Marie Le Pen claimed one region, his daugther Marine another, and Marine's mate Louis Aliot yet another.

The only good news may be the fact that the UMP is at long last forced to dump Sarkozy's doomed "rightization" strategy. In the weeks and months to come, the party will either evolve towards the center, or implode. 

The Socialist Party imploded a long time ago, but managed to win an election here and there, when its rivals played it even dumber than dumb. France cannot afford two zombies any longer.

• Also on blogules V.F.: "Séisme ou Encéphalo Plat?"

blogules 2014
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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Tokyo's Un-Patriot Act

It's cherry blossom season in Japan, and saber rattling season in North Korea. So the Japanese Government decided to deploy Patriot Missiles in the (not yet) dead middle of Tokyo. Beautiful photo ops for media from across the world: dark, bulky death machines with delicate, georgeous sakura patches in the background.

Of course, the message is not to KIM Jong-un ("we'll destroy your missile if it flies over Tokyo"*), but to Japan's die hard bureaucrats: "please keep our government afloat".

First, I don't think Japanese leaders flunked all geography exams. Tokyo lies near the East Coast, and if North Koreans really plan to fire over Japan, they certainly won't do it Westwards (unless they're looking for a record breaking range / a potential sepukku). So if Japans really wants to prevent the missile from entering its air space, it must shoot long before it flies over Tokyo.

Second, this photo op is pure political porn for the Japanese extreme right: a caricature celebrating the rebirth of the Empire as a military superpower, and the very negation of Japan as a peaceful nation.

If there were countless other ways for a democracy to show its resolve against provocations from Pyeongyang, Yoshihiko Noda couldn't have signed a better pledge of allegiance to the worst enemies of Japan**: the ones from within.

blogules 2012 - previously published on Seoul Village ("Tokyo Sakura With Patriot Missiles (A Still Life)")
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* we recently mentioned the issue (see "NK and nukes: back to the (dolsot curling) stone age?"). KIM The Third wants to celebrate KIM The First's Centennial (KIM Il-sung was born on April 15th, 1912, but the pyrotechnic show could be planned for the 12th).

** see previous posts about this dangerous clique

GOP meets Poujadism

When Karl Rove says the Tea Party should keep distances from the GOP*, what he actually means is that the GOP should stay away from this political dead end.

But if the Architect knows a few things about winning and losing elections, I don't think he is familiar with French Poujadism, the movement which inevitably comes up to my troubled French mind each time I hear about this laughingstock of a Tea Party.

During the early 1950s, Shop owner Pierre Poujade defied the French tax system and founded a party that surfed on a collapsed political system to claim 400,000 members and more than 50 seats in the National Assembly... where the absence of program of the movement became an embarassment for everyone. Charles de Gaulle's comeback put an end to the doomed IVth Republic, and Poujade's Union de Defense des Commercants et des Artisans left for ever the political centerstage.

Pathetic indeed. But one can worry a bit more about what could happen in a country where a certain Joseph Stack III just crashed his plane on an I.R.S. building in Austin, TX**... Furthermore, among UDCA's law"makers" was Jean-Marie Le Pen, who later founded the extreme right party Front National... I wouldn't be surprised to find this kind of "great democrats" within the Tea Party's dream team.

Hardcore taxophobes are not comfortable with the very concept of a state, and such platforms never bloom in healthy democracies because they are, fundamentally, anti-democracy.

Populism and tax breaks sell well in the short term, but only simple minds stick to it whatever happens. For instance : the same voters who followed G. W. Bush on that path are now mad at Obama because he doesn't know how to reduce Dubya's abyssal deficits with more tax reductions.

Unlike Poujadism, the Tea Party is purely grassroot and lacks a leader. Ron Paul might fit the job, but Sarah Palin proposed to take the helm at the inaugural National Convention in Nashville, TN, reading from her Palm Pilot (actually a low tech model counterfeited by John McCain). Sarah Tea Party Palin... what a match.

We already saw how Palin represented the no-future of the GOP ("Sarah Palin and the Segolene Royal Syndrome - The GOP on the same path as the French Socialist Party"). So a Tea Party Spin Off with Mrs Theocon on board would definitely leave some space for Republicans who actually respect the republic (see "GOP : time to split").

Anyway, instead of following the ones who yell and destroy, GOP leaders would better sit down and think. Even if it means losing the upcoming elections - actually, THAT could come as a blessing : they decently cannot postpone their own reforms any longer.

But Democrats shouldn't rejoice too soon : if the popular success of the Tea Party unmistakably corroborates the ideological collapse of the GOP, it also is a gorilla-sized canary in their own coalmine. And they must prevent the most liberal aisles to stretch beyond the limits of the republic. Obama took the blame and seems to be correcting communication to restore some of the truth : OK, I didn't deliver the goods, but I had a few bads to take care of first.

blogules 2010

* "Where the Tea Parties Should Go From Here" (WSJ 20100219)
** At least, a political crash of the GOP wouldn't cause much damage.

Sarko wins - White blogule to reforms

France eventually said yes to something. After saying no to extreme right in 2002 and no to Europe in 2005, the country decided to embrace reforms. In order to implement his ambitious program, Nicolas Sarkozy must now get a clear majority at the National Assembly. And these legislative elections will be a very interesting moment in French politics.
As early as next thursday, Francois Bayrou will know whether his new Democratic Movement can keep the bulk of today's UDF MPs, who supported Sarkozy and refused to join the opposition.
As early as yesterday night, a surrealistic replay of the PS primaries started. Segolene Royal, as expected, refused to admit her own failure and the failure of ideological indecisiveness, claimed the leadership of the "anything but Sarko" movement. Laurent Fabius, as expected, denounced her solo campaign and called for unity with the left of the left. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, as expected, denounced the candidate's hollowness and the party's refusal to reform itself, to clarify its vision and ideology, calling for a reform towards a modern social democracy.
As early as yesterday night too, extreme left revolutionary groups tested the authorities, provoking minor episodes of violence in some major cities. Olivier Besancenot intends to take the street and bar all reforms.
As early as yesterday afternoon, Jean-Marie Le Pen died politically. Sarkozy shot him badly before the first round, leading a great chunk of his voters back to the republic, and the old extremist leader shot himself before the second round, calling his voters for a massive abstention but witnessing the highest turnout in recent history.
Meanwhile, Sarko rises above the snake nest and takes a few days off to abandon his candidate's skin. He already switched to a presidential posture in a rather brilliant speech. He talked to the world (to the notable exceptions of the Middle East and Asia) and mentioned respect. I'll keep an eye on his way of respecting the separation of powers (executive-legislative, executive-judicial, executive-media, temporal-intemporal...).

Red blogule to fundamentalists - bases are loaded

The disarmament of Hezbollah is under way thanks to... Hezbollah itself : the organization is methodically getting rid of its stocks of weapons over Israel. Tel Aviv's attacks are not meant to destroy Hezbollah but to make sure Eretz Israel has strong enemies for the decades to come and thus, to make sure Israeli fundamentalists remain in power. Paradoxically and just like Bush's counterproductive "War on Terror" helps terrorists recruit new followers, new waves of antisemitism will lead more Israelis towards the welcoming arms of their country's extreme right.
Whether from Iran, Israel or the USA, fundamentalists don't want peace : peace means living without fear nor coercion ; peace means opening up and accepting the world as it should be, diverse and tolerant ; peace means the irrelevance of fundamentalism.
Look at them cheer up all over the world : radical Sunnis and radical Shiites applauding each other's victories ; Amerikan New-Born Neo-Cons and Iranian radical islamists using each other as evil witches to be hunted in a sick medieval obscurantism remake...
US "diplomats" don't seem to care much when masses of pro-Hezbollah demonstrators hit the streets in Baghdad. They don't seem to worry when Israel ruins the heritage of Yitzhak Rabin and infuriates the whole world as well as Bush did back in 2003 with an unecessary war doubled by a provocative occupation... The White House's most radical wings are actually rejoicing.
I wonder when the US citizens will eventually realize their country is led by lunatics devoted to putting out fire with gasoline. It will take decades to repair the image of the country overseas (not to mention implementing actual peace) - but judging by the 2004 landslide victory of immoderate conservatism across Amerika, I don't believe the restoration of the values that made America respected to be a priority.

Red blogule to Junichiro Koizumi - Too right to be right

I did wish Japan's PM good luck for his 9/11 elections, provided he would actually seize the opportunity and get rid of the country's extremists. The fact is I'm not even surprised Koizumi nominated a few of them in his government, especially at such key positions as Foreign Affairs.
I actually finished that white blogule by a rather pessimistic "on the other hand, if he didn't seize such an opportunity, I wonder what could save Japan".
I can now complete this bright red blogule by a totally realistic Nothing can save Japan because Japan doesn't want to be saved.

White blogule to new signs o' new times

Stunning. Sharon's face as he was listening to his rival's speech. Lost, his own fat self sitting alone, without the ability to communicate thanks to a spectacular sabotage from members of his own party... Let him grow some beard and wear the kaffiyeh and you've got the spitting image of his longtime ennemy Yassir Arafat.
So the old man wrote down his vision for his Likud peers : we had to give up Gaza, you can't cheat demography. And this time, he wasn't the one to ignite the violence in the strip : "harderliners" would drop the bomb from his very right, which proves wider by the day.
Yet, Netanyahu was supposed to win but didn't. Ditto Donald Tusk and Angela Merkel. Le Petit Nicolas Sarkozy should be careful : times they are a-changin for US neocons' faves. The world needs reforms but the people craves for moderate leaders.
Besides, everywhere, fundamentalists and extremists confirm their strong footprints but cannot rule on their own. Radical stances losing ground, they're using less subtle ways to win over democracy : their words proving empty, they just eliminate moderate voices. Bringing fear pays in the short term but not in the long one.
This is certainly not a U-turn (and shouldn't be) but for the first time in 4 years, being the toughest one doesn't pay.

White blogule to Japan's 9/11

Junichiro Koizumi pretends to be the last samurai, sending assassins to get rid of reformophobic politicians and lashing by himself the throats of the Empire's most dangerous thugs : the infamous postmen.
Well. The least one could say is I'm not a supporter of his, but I wish him luck.
If he loses, the old guard wins : even if the LDP ended up in shatters, nothing would change since the opposition is already welcoming hardliners and so called "rebels" on board.
If he wins, the old guard may still win. That is if Koizumi maintains his suicidal revisionist agenda.
What if Weirdo Hairdo Junichiro actually played the bad boy just to please Hirohito fanatics, and simply got rid of them after the elections ? What if his seppuku diplomacy were to end right after the 9/11 elections ? Imagine the winner over the ruins of the conservative fortress, asking the ultimate forgiveness for the crimes of a whole nation, accepting the past, enlightening the present and embracing the future...
On the other hand, if he didn't seize such an opportunity, I wonder what could save Japan.

Red blogule to Japan - No UN Council seat for an Unrepentant Nation

Japan shouldn't be offered a UN Council seat before they fully apologize for their past and moreover for their unacceptable present continuously devoted to revisionism (Dokdo, Yasukuni Shrine, Comfort Women, history textbooks, even archaeological hoaxes...).
Germany showed the way and can be proud of it. This is worthy of a great nation and a great people, both responsible and respectable.
Japan is simply wrong : just like Bush, Junichiro Koizumi keeps sending the wrong messages at the wrong places and the wrong moments. In order to please hardliners and prevent them from losing face he doesn't realise he actually has his whole country lose face in front of History and the rest of the world. Humility is their only way out of utter humiliation, but this is too disturbing a concept for such a stubborn bunch of fanatics.
I fully support the opposition to a permanent seat for Japan at the UN Council : the world should seize this opportunity and demand a true act of contrition (without the religious flavor, of course), which would be a genuine act of grandeur. Stephane MOT

Red blogule to Prince Harry - When Harry met nazis

First time I saw the picture of Di's kid with that swastika armband I thought it was a fake (sweet Harry turning into "brown sugar" ?). About the same day Di Canio performed a "perfect" fascist salute to the Lazio fans. And then came Jean-Marie Le Pen's latest provocation. Already controversial public figures in unison. A pattern. Extremes on the rise across Europe and the World. Fundamentalist Christians and Muslims competing in a sick draft over Aceh's ruins. Wrong start for 2005. No wonder : last year ended with a wrong message from the US. Stephane MOT