Show me the money, Mr Strauss Kahn

If DSK's outrageous, $35,000-a-month new home in NYC was hard to swallow for fellow French socialists, the former IMF boss doesn't care much about politics these days. And the message is first intended to the alleged victim's lawyers.

Here it goes :

We cannot contact you, but know that money is not an issue for us.
It may be for Nafissatou Diallo, that client of yours, a brave single mom maid coming from a poor African country and living in a not so nice neighborhood. She can't offer you much beyond the satisfaction of doing something good for her and furthermore for Cyrus Vance Jr, that ambitious DA who will never make it into the Big League.
You already know that this trial won't be a walk in the park for you nor for Nafissatou : our own teams have been digging everywhere, and you know how nasty things can become. Our client's honor has already been tarnished*, but he's ready to put that aside. A nice, fat settlement would be a win win win situation, don't you think ?
Name your price.
Yours falsely.

blogules 2011

* see former episode : "DSK's appallingchian trail"

DSK's appallingchian trail

Yes, I'm a French citizen but no, I have no more sympathy for Mr Dominique Strauss-Kahn than I had for Roman Polanski.

Unlike the latter, the former has not been convicted yet, but his troubled personality is at last being publicly exposed and that's a good start. Excellent news for the alledged victim, but also for France, for the French Socialist Party, and for DSK himself.

Good news for France ? All my country needed was a non deforming mirror to expose its own troubled personality : a Republic claiming liberty, equality, and fraternity, but actually a corrupt system promoting impunity, unfairness, and collusion between politics, justice, and the media.

Good news for the PS ? DSK was expected to be the target of a well deserved character assassination much closer to the Presidential elections, so the party has more time to look for a decent plan B, and if possible to look for a consistent program, one that aims at the political center and not at the impossible synthesis between progressive and obsolete currents. In the mirror, what they see is a leadership that failed to address the issues that really matter, that forgot what politics should be all about.

Good news for DSK ? This man is obviously sick and in denial of the danger he represents. Even before the alledged assault, Strauss Kahn was perfectly aware of the attacks to come on this very dark side of his personality... He too needed to have a good look at himself in the mirror.

So thank you, Dear America, for this embarrassingly precious mirror.

But please, this time, spare us your usual fake happy endings (OJ, Wacko Jacko...), and go all the way.

blogules 2011

Paulson, Sarkozy to Socialist Heaven : "show me the money !"

Europe hastily awarded some jailed Chinese dissident with some prestigious human rights prize before embarking on a plane for Beijing.

There, Jose Manuel Barroso, Nicolas Sarkozy et al went down on their knees and begged the Great Socialist Empire to let some of its wealthy reserves trickle down over the bankrupt Capitalist rest of the World.

From DC, Hank Paulson also asked the IIIrd Millenium's Hyperpower to consider some kind of a Marshall plan ("could you please bail out the US of A ? you know, we don't hate socialists that badly, after all - according to John McCain we're even about to elect one as our President").

In other words, capitalism defies socialist China : "Show me the money".

Wen Jiabao is all ears. And smiles*. "Yes, we can".

Yes, Wen can provide some kind of relief to his new admirers, but he has some fish to fry at home as well. Will he chose to secure China's business model and one fifth of the World's population, to help the richest fifth, or to give a hand to the forgotten rest ? Probably a little bit of each : China will durably strengthen its positions in Asia, Africa, Europe and America, but the trickiest part will be China itself (see "Pervasive China's CIA (Central Investment Agency)").

New series of models will emerge. Not this week-end. Nor November the 15th, when the World Egghead Forum takes place. Nor even during the couple of years to come. But timely (at a geologic time scale at least).

They will differ from XXth century socialism or capitalism (see "This is not a financial crisis"), and China is no exception.

* Actually, I'm wondering how badly Wen's jaws hurt - he was already jubilating during his interview with Zakaria a couple of weeks ago (GPS @ CNN / Newsweek). But not as much as I did, listening to Alan Greenspan swallow just a tiny little bit of his titanic pride.

Sarko wins - White blogule to reforms

France eventually said yes to something. After saying no to extreme right in 2002 and no to Europe in 2005, the country decided to embrace reforms. In order to implement his ambitious program, Nicolas Sarkozy must now get a clear majority at the National Assembly. And these legislative elections will be a very interesting moment in French politics.
As early as next thursday, Francois Bayrou will know whether his new Democratic Movement can keep the bulk of today's UDF MPs, who supported Sarkozy and refused to join the opposition.
As early as yesterday night, a surrealistic replay of the PS primaries started. Segolene Royal, as expected, refused to admit her own failure and the failure of ideological indecisiveness, claimed the leadership of the "anything but Sarko" movement. Laurent Fabius, as expected, denounced her solo campaign and called for unity with the left of the left. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, as expected, denounced the candidate's hollowness and the party's refusal to reform itself, to clarify its vision and ideology, calling for a reform towards a modern social democracy.
As early as yesterday night too, extreme left revolutionary groups tested the authorities, provoking minor episodes of violence in some major cities. Olivier Besancenot intends to take the street and bar all reforms.
As early as yesterday afternoon, Jean-Marie Le Pen died politically. Sarkozy shot him badly before the first round, leading a great chunk of his voters back to the republic, and the old extremist leader shot himself before the second round, calling his voters for a massive abstention but witnessing the highest turnout in recent history.
Meanwhile, Sarko rises above the snake nest and takes a few days off to abandon his candidate's skin. He already switched to a presidential posture in a rather brilliant speech. He talked to the world (to the notable exceptions of the Middle East and Asia) and mentioned respect. I'll keep an eye on his way of respecting the separation of powers (executive-legislative, executive-judicial, executive-media, temporal-intemporal...).

Masks off - red blogule to Segolene Royal's imposture

Let us consider my fellow French citizens as junkies, eager to give up their illusions but still hooked to them and asking candidates for yet another fix...
Segolene Royal comes to them and tells them : "I'm listening to what you say. I will give you a dose even bigger than the one you're dreaming of. You will feel good today and tomorrow will look brighter - actually, I'm sure things will get better for you.
Nicolas Sarkozy tells the French : "I'm really listening to what you say, and I understand that what you mean is not give me more but get me out of here. I won't push you down any further, I will help you up.
The sales pitch is less sexy but a little bit more responsible.

As you noticed earlier in this excuse for a blog, I don't precisely like Mr Sarkozy. But I know he is the only one who can put the country back on track. And I know he is now under the strict control and scrutiny of the UMP's centrist majority, the very people who will actually do the job with him, but people who won't stay with him if he happens to deviate from the healthy line (ie Sarko confirmed several times he won't touch to France's secularism).

I seriously considered voting for Bayrou one year ago. Back then, I was sure he had a chance, the same way I knew back in 1996 Blair could win the following year, to the great surprise of my British friends. But the man proved once again to be a disapointment ; a good man but a loner, not a leader. His surrealistic "debate" with Royal confirmed my worries : this man of dialogue drowned in Sego's autistic monologue.

But last Tuesday, Royal eventually met someone who exposed her sideral vacuity. I often compare her to Dubya : both are impostors and fake compassionate conservatists, but at least Bush is a good actor and he knows both the role he has to play and the man he truly is. Sego doesn't even know who nor what she is. She is actually running away from this confrontation and discovered the way of persuasing herself she exists in a selfpersuasive mantra technique : she routinely picks up things that sound nice everywhere and adds them to her speech, which grows into something as huge as implausible and inconsistent, and when someone says a trifle loud something looks a trifle too much she withdraws it. No one stopped her during the Socialist Party's primaries, no one stopped her during the campaign, and someone eventually said "get real", someone eventually imposed her first actual debate.
Even then, Sego refused any contradiction (no, not true, you're lying), she denied the right to answer (you don't have the right to answer, no). But Sarko kept focusing on the content while Sego sticked to the appearence, putting all her weight in one attack carefully planed. Sarko already knew Sego would attack because she warned her staff before. The question was when. She knew Le Petit Nicolas would raise the issue of the disabled children (he actually delivered the very same words a couple of days earlier in a prime time interview), and her strategy was to strike at this precise moment. She did a pretty good job in pretending to choke on what he said as if it were the first time she heard it, and she convinced many observers of her courage and sincerity. But she also lost many sympathisers who considered her as... sympathetic (66% of voters before the debate, 53% after - Opinionway poll). And women are not fooled : they don't like her and prefer to vote for Sarko (49% vs 38% - TNS Sofres barometer).
Masks are off and I do hope French citizens will vote with more discernment in 2007 than US citizens in 2004.

Le vote futile - why French socialists shouldn't vote for Royal

Before the 2004 elections, I would advise Republicans who loved their party and who truly respected republican values not to vote for Bush. I'm not sure the GOP will recover from the 2006 fiasco on time for 2008...

I'm telling the same thing to French socialists right now : if you believe in a modern form of socialism and compassionate politics, do not vote for Segolene Royal this Sunday. France cannot afford to be ruled by the Socialist Party as it is right now, and certainly not by a candidate who proved unable to federate her own family, unable to give a clear vision, unable to rise above a swamp of demagogy.

Royal never ventured beyond areas where debate could rage. Europe ? 35-hour week ? the national debt ? Well below the radar of touchy issues and just above the minefield of personal attacks on her rivals, Sego decided to focus on the consensual issue of the budget devoted to the French President for her last week of campaigning. Pathetic.

Socialists reformers want the French PS to implode. This party died two years ago after the Referendum on Europe, and the worst thing that could happen now would be a socialist majority composed of conflicting minorities. Ruling over such a mess would be much tougher than achieving Bayrou's dream of a balanced government positioned at the center.

Reformers should not accept Sego's conservative agenda, and conservative leftists would better vote for one of the small candidates "to the left of the left". At least, Mrs Buffet believes in what she says and respects the political debate.

But both reformers and hardliners are hesitating : Le Pen could reach the second round again.

But since this man cannot be elected (unless France turns into Florida), even that would be better than electing Royal : the socialists, who did not move one inch since April 21, 2002 despite the humiliation, would then be forced to evolve and split. Let the primates go their way and the moderates pave a new one.

If Royal were to win, France would lose immediately, and the Parti Socialist not long after. The only winner would be the Royal - Hollande couple.

I hope socialists won't subscribe to this hollow program.

Unless they enjoy being dubbed Europe's stupidest left.

The end of financial safe havens - Red blogule to speculation

Shanghai sneezed, Tokyo coughed, the whole world panicked... but avian flu had nothing to do with it. According to Ben Bernanke, Chief Futurologist Officer at the Fed, this week's small bump on the eternal path of glory of the World's greatest stock exchanges doesn't mean the big naughty R will strike anytime soon.
Yet it shows how nervous investors are, globally. There is a lot of greedy money everywhere and not only from your usual suspects (the so called developped countries) : everybody is well informed and almost free to invest almost anywhere anytime. Speculation remains good business but demands better nerves than ever. Hedge funds were the first to collapse under their own weight and now, even traditional players struggle. The money is there, growth is there too, but the place is so crowded with both experts and beginners that nothing is guaranteed.
There is no such thing as a financial safe haven anymore, and this greedy money will somehow have to focus on tasks more useful for a larger community. No wonder some people have been rediscovering The Capital lately. But with a fresher look.
I like to compare Karl Marx with Louis Pasteur : both were great observers and could deliver pertinent diagnosis, but Carlito couldn't go all the way of experimentation and would often wander too far along the path of interpretation, coming back with irrelevant prescriptions and leaving to other doctors the honor of delivering counterproductive treatments.
I know this is the kind of excuses used in the past by the Supreme Soviet or the CPC (Communist Party of China), but I do think the time has come for the cast of pure speculators to feel the heat and join the Hall of Shame : you have a right to sell weapons, tobacco, alcohol, casino chips, and to make a lot of dough with it, but don't expect to be respected for that.

Red blogule to French oldcons, neocons and cons in general

The French are switching from a Left / Right to a Conservative / Progressive political rift. The defining moment was the vote for the European Constitution, with a significant collateral damage : the end of the Socialist Party (PS) as we've known it since Francois Mitterrand claimed it a couple of decades ago.
Reformers from the PS have more in common with reformers from the UMP than with their fellow party members stuck somewhere in the middle of the XIXth Century. Sarkozy and fellow reformers have successfuly sidelined traditional conservatives within their own ranks - a minority of harmless old farts snoring all day long at the Senate.
I'm sure the French economy would perform well with Nicolas Sarkozy, but I'm rather scared by his attacks on secular legislations and his ability to fuel radicalism and fundamentalism. I don't quite like the idea of this man enjoying the support of both US and Israeli fundamentalists and neocons, and even the presence of a Karl Rove wannabe on his side, Brice Hortefeux.
I'd rather see a more moderate kind of reformer rule the country. Francois Bayrou (UDF) has a clear opening since Dominique Strauss-Kahn lost the PS primaries vs Segolene Royal. Should he reach the second round of these elections, he would crush Royal and could even be a problem for Sarkozy (if socialist voters prefer barring Sarko to abstention).
Segolene Royal is not a moderate reformer. She is neither conservative nor reformist. She is an ambitious person used to follow charismatic leaders and has some trouble turning into a charismatic leader radiating with her own views. She keeps putting all opinions at the same level and refusing to take any clear position. As expected and despite a massive victory in the socialist primaries (60%), Royal proved unable to get full support from her own party. A couple of days ago, a group of VIMs from the left (Very Important Women) were considering a petition to call for her withdrawal from the presidential race - just to make sure this wouldn't be interpreted as yet another proof of France's reactionnary machismo (anytime Royal is under attack, she bites with the issue back).
Bayrou may be closing the gap, Royal is still far ahead of the centrist candidate and she still has a large and motivated core of supporters. But she flunked last week-end's exam, introducing a program that didn't really prove disruptive... but for the national budget. A copycat of Mitterrand's 1981 program, which led that man to the top job but the country to the bottom : a massive budget deficit, a big financial crisis and a total loss of international competitivity at a critical moment. Eric Besson, the man in charge of the financial side of Royal program, timely decided to quit after a clash with Francois Holland, secretary general of the PS and Sego's longtime compagnon.
Right now, Sarkozy enjoys a comfortable lead in the polls. But he has also been trapped into a lousy campaign where everybody promises everything to everyone. Even Bayrou, the apostle of budget orthodoxy, claims a 20 billion Euros program.
Ten years ago, France was ahead of Germany in its reforms. But the PM, Alain Juppe, went too far too quick, and Chirac (not so wisely advised by Villepin) decided to dissolve the assembly. The PS won the 1997 elections and Lionel Jospin surfed on the internet bubble years to post nice growth rates, but also to reform the country the wrong way (more spendings and the mother of all mistakes ; the 35-hour Week). Chirac won again in 2002 but limited new reforms to cautious steps when his neighbor Gerhard Schroeder would take all the risks. Schroeder lost to Merkel but Germany is now much fitter than France to face future challenges.
Here's the new deal for France : an economic breakdown with Segolene Royal, a political gamble with Nicolas Sarkozy. Should Francois Bayrou win next May, he would have the opportunity to form a new party with socialist and UMP moderate reformers. Instead of going down by turning right or left, France must try to go and grow up.

Red blogule to neolibs

(...) A radical counterforce to neocons is gaining momentum across the world, leveraging on Bush's extreme stance and on the popularity of "alternative" themes (no to total deregulation / free market, no to war, no to polluters, no to neocons...) to recruit beyond the traditional extreme left side of the spectrum. Among them, (not always former) Troskyists have a knack for infiltrating the administrations and the youth.
The French press is noticing an infiltration of education by radical "altermondialists" (in today's Le Figaro "Enquête : comment ATTAC infiltre l'école" ). ATTAC are known for supporting the so called "Tobin tax", riots during G8 summits, or the NO vote to the European constitution. There is a fierce debate within the movement : we are acting like a political party, shall we turn into one and nominate a candidate for the 2007 presidential elections ? This could mean the implosion of the socialist party.
An interesting phenomenon is the way these radicals deal with the "weaker" ones, very similar to the high pressure / terror put by hawks on potential doves : if you don't agree with us you are with them, and thus you are a fascist.
What I feared is happening : the extremes feeding each other, the moderates crushed in between, and radicalism getting overall mainstream.
As I see it, Howard Dean seems to extend towards the center right instead of locking the far left (see Newsweek Intl's article on abortion : "A Case of Roh vs. Reality" ). I don't know how long it will take for the two-party system to implode, but it seems to be well protected by the shortness of mandates (4 years).
SM on disinfopedia