A Democratic. National. Convention. With Mender In Chief Joe Biden.

Forget the confetti, forget the spin room, Zoom-in on issues and character. The 'Unconventional Convention' delivered the goods that matter.

'We The People' DNC 2020 will soon give way to 'Me Donald' RNC 2020, an alternative reality show where America will be pitched as stronger than ever, admired and respected overseas, her POTUS a winner, a strong, courageous patriot that will protect the people from a chaos like the World has never seen before. As if America weren't on her knees, despised overseas, her POTUS a pathetic failure, a coward narcissist that corrupts and bankrupts everything he touches, and the very person who keeps bringing and nurturing 'unpresidented' chaos. A sick joke that gets every day sicker and deadlier.

But let's get back to a Democratic National Convention that was all about Democracy, all about the Nation, all about Convening. 

 

Joe, Kamala, Michelle, Barack - one message: vote to save democracy, the constitution, the soul of a nation, and its future.

We saw all kinds of faces and faiths, we heard all kinds of voices (even from more significant Republicans than ever before), we felt all sources of positive and sustainable energy to tap into. We witnessed the cultural and political diversity that makes America truly great. 

Four pillars emerged*: Michelle and Barack Obama reaffirmed the moral and constitutional foundations, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris provided the platform for changes which they may not embody best themselves, but will do everything to enable as the next presidents of the United States**. They proved that they care, and that they know how to get things done. 

These four faces do not say 'we won' to Bernie or A.O.C., but 'we will win all together' to keep democracy and the debate alive. That's why Joe is the perfect president for this time. Because he knows he's not perfect, because everybody knows he's the ideal, non-ideological Mender in Chief, and because he already demonstrated that he could listen to and work with people like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, or John McCain.

More urgent debates will arrive soon, even more thrilling; Meltdown Trump will need even more boxes of uppers as usual to confront the man he likes to depict as 'sleepy', and I can't wait to see Kamala face to face (no chaperones) with 'Cheerleader's Cheerleader' Mike Pence...

Beyond conventions and debates, democracy will only win if everybody votes on time. Massively. In every State. In every county and parish. In every town and township. And for that to happen, everybody must get ready now, make a plan to defeat the voter suppression campaigns led by Trump and his enablers.

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Enjoyed my neuroses? Check my prose: dragedies.com.

* I'm not forgetting the formidable Jill Biden, both a pillar and the keystone.

** full disclosure: Kamala Harris was my favorite candidate during the primaries.

Ending the Trump-McConnell Era

Donald Trump is focusing on 4 priorities to secure his reelection:

• delaying the upcoming downturn to after November 2020, even if it means destroying US competitiveness to achieve it 
• building the new sections of the wall he promised, even if US taxpayers pay for it, and double if you consider the fact that he's taking on other budgets to do it (triple if you consider the fact that he's slashing security and military budgets). 
• positioning Democrats as socialist extremists, even if some oblige by doing it by themselves (exhibit A: Bernie Sanders) 
• preventing key demographics from voting, through classic voter suppression techniques (e.g. gerrymandering) as well as through his own trademark methods (e.g. turning politics into a disgusting circus, scaring minorities away with threats of ICE raids)

For the moment, DJT seems on a much better track than in 2016. The question is: this time, how much will he be allowed to compensate a likely loss in popular vote with help from the outside through hacking or election meddling?

Until the elections, he will get the opportunity to score some wins (the wall? USMCA? China?), but risks keep piling up (collateral loan obligations? China? House commissions? post-Mueller lawsuits? Jim Mattis?)...


On a more direct electoral front, Trump is facing a different Democratic field:
- the business-as-usual candidate isn't a clear leader anymore: Joe Biden's lagging too much behind Hillary Clinton in too many ways, except maybe in his miserable skills as a presidential candidate.
- the natural liberal candidate of 2016 seems to be at long last claiming the spot she abandoned to Sanders because Hillary decided to run again: Elizabeth Warren is an energizing candidate, and embodies change much more convincingly than Bernie, who in contrast looks like an old don Quixote great at barking at windmills, but unable to get them produce anything. Sanders still has the power to crash the party if he chooses to linger once more.
- Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg seem to settle for Veep positions, but a lot can happen until IA-NH. Warren-Buttigieg? Biden-Harris? Warren-Harris could kick some serious ass.

One good news for the Democrats: if defeating Trump remains the common goal, his impeachment is now on a dedicated track, and key issues look much better separated and visible. The POTUS doesn't need anyone to draw spotlights on immigration or climate change (great idea, to invite fellow G7 members to watch Hurricane Doral from the front seat next Summer), but Mitch McConnell has at last become a prime target on issues as critical as gun control or SCOTUS nominations (mass shooting or Ruth Bader Ginsburg health scares unfortunately coming as recurring reminders). 

It is essential to target the Trump-McConnell duo, because winning doesn't stop at the White House. You need to reclaim the Senate, and to restore some dignity there as well.


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Politically Correct as in Post-Clinton

Donna Brazile's revelations* didn't come as a surprise. Everybody knew that the Clintons sank the party they helped reform a quarter of a century earlier. Well we knew for the political part, but the financial dimension is so much engrained in their fabric that this latest scandal makes perfect sense.

I don't feel sorry for Bernie Sanders, who would have lost anyway, but for a country that should never have lost its most vital institutions to its worst enemies.

I'm glad this comes out now. Not as a distraction to the Russia probe, but to silence Hillary, who hijacked the conversation thanks to her book tour, poisoning minds with the notion that the DNC remains totally under her spell. 

We badly need different voices. Obama yes, but only on rare occasions, and on essential issues. We don't need grandparents in the Pelosi - Biden - Sanders variety (if they're over 65, make them fun listening to, like Liz Warren or Al Franken - what a 2020 ticket!). We need fresh, new voices, like Kamala Harris, Chris Murphy, or better Deval Patrick, should he return to politics. And the Democratic Party must totally reform itself. Otherwise, the Barry Sanderses, Oprah Winfreys, or Mark Zuckerbergs will dance on its grave.

Can Al Franken draw the US electoral map as well?

Of course, same goes for Republicans, who must step into the post-Trump era before DJT destroys what's left of it. For the moment, the GOP's soul relies on a 81 year-old with brain cancer (John McCain), two senators on the way out (Jeff Flake with a better potential than filpflop Bob Corker), and the one cool guy who could change it all, Ben Sasse.


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* "Inside Hillary Clinton’s Secret Takeover of the DNC" - Politico 20171102 exceprts from her book

Alt Right Or Alt Trump?

Election Night 2016 turned out to be a dud, suspense-wise. And a 8,978 gigaton nuclear bomb otherwise.

Donald J. Trump will nominate at least the next two (sorry Ruth) Supreme Court Justices. Unless 45 pulls out another rubber mask and returns as Don Pro-Choice T. (which neither Mike Pence nor the GOP-controlled Congress would let happen), the US are bound to return to the Middle-Age on key human rights*. And maybe embrace durably the ultraconservative line, the way Israel did after the murder of Yitzhak Rabin.

The only good news of today is the hope that, at long last, the Clinton Dynasty will stop ruling the Democratic Party. We saw how Joe Biden's familial tragedy combined with Elizabeth Warren's reluctance to run against Hillary allowed a new figure to ride the Need For Change + Anything But Hillary waves, and her weaknesses to sink deeper into everybody's minds acrosss the aisle. Had Bernie Sanders won the primaries, Michael Bloomberg would have probably decided to run, and won the elections. Maybe also made a decent POTUS.

Even with Sanders and Warren on board, even with the full support of Barack and Michelle Obama at the peak of their popularity and motivation, even with a superiority in the ground and online games, Clinton couldn't carry the positive side of the force. Abandoning the rustbeltiest parts of the Democratic firewall didn't help against The Donald's one-man-show.

Nationwide, state by state, county by county... the scale of Trump's victory is scary. Way scarier and deeper than W's 2004, which Obama managed to gracefully compensate.

If Trump delivered the acceptance speech he was expected to give, he remains a dangerous, loose canon surrounded by such bad hombres as Breitbart's Steve Bannon.

And we still don't know how far the interests of people like Vladimir Putin have been pushed at the core of the world's supposedly model democracy.

Now that the Alt Right and the KKK are celebrating a victory they claim as theirs, the future of America lies in moderate Republican lawmakers. And in a new and truly uniting figure to reach for them from the Democrats' ruins.

Trump claims electoral and popular vote, the House and Senate, the Supreme Court, and a seat for Putin's SOTU address (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796265430914473985)
BREAKING - Hillary Clinton just gave a concession call to Putin (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796257288197545985)
Will Obama hand the nuclear and @POTUS twitter codes to Trump? (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796255962143174656)

The new POTUS has big hands... and his name is Putin (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796242317216595968)

BREAKING: USA legalizes recreational votes - #RIPUSDemocracy (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796235476990496768)
The only good news today: DNC is freed from Clinton rule - Hopefully (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796235045161734144)
Duterte, Shinzo Abe, Donald Trump - When democracy votes against democracy (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796232108758863872)

Why did Hillary Clinton run in the first place? (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796194014072422400)
USA pulls a Brexit. Donald Trump will nominate at least the next 2 Supreme Court judges. Democracy loses - NB Jake Tapper concedes to Trump (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796193850842705921)
Key projection: CNN dream team to keep their lock on Election Night (Wolf Blitzer, Jake Tapper, Dana Bash, John King) (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796157101730955266)

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* we have yet to grasp the full extent of the damage already done down the ballot (e.g. death penalty restored in NE)

New York in the bag

The "New York" songs played ahead of tonight's victory speeches? A cunning old mobster for Donald Trump (Frank Sinatra), a smart young African American for Hillary Clinton (Alicia Keys). 

Both winners seemed sincerely relieved, Hillary Why-So-Tense Clinton looking even, all of a sudden, twenty years younger:

HRC and family keep fighting for U$

Her victory was so clear that it turned the 125,000 voters rejected at the Democratic primary into an epiphenomenon (still, she probably wouldn't have won by such a landslide had all unregistered Democrats been allowed).

The Donald didn't look younger than last week. He even seems to be shedding hair and gaining weight during this campaign. But he won in spite of his closest allies: his own kids couldn't vote because they didn't register, and Ben Carson's name remained on the ballot - Doc claimed more votes than Ted Cruz in parts of Westchester County (they wouldn't appear in the official, final count):

Yet the most defining moments of the campaign were John Kasich eating his way to a victory in Manhattan, and Bernie Sanders having his 'Ich bin ein New Yorker' moment on Washington Square.

Bernie's not out yet, he's gone as far as his candidacy allowed him to go*.

And Ted Cruzed far further than I thought: I believed that he kicked himself out of the race as soon as he entered it (see "2016 - Recyclable Expendables"), but this 2016 GOP is nuttier than ever.

Yet the Dems have their own blend of unexpected uniter in Elizabeth Warren, who could receive a call from Hillary long before 3 A.M.

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* see "ABH Corpus" (May 2015): By submitting his candidacy first after Hillary on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders claimed at least 3 obvious categories : "ABH" (Anyone But Hillary), "EWE" (Elizabeth Warren Erzatz - Sanders reaches even further to the left, pitching himself as a 'socialist'), and "OFGWAB" (that perennial candidacy type I dubbed "Old Farts Going With A Bang").

ABH Corpus

Even if many heavyweights are taking their time, the 2016 race is considerably more crowded than when Ted Cruz launched / torpedoed his own campaign (see "2016 - Recyclable Expendables").

By submitting his candidacy first after Hillary on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders claimed at least 3 obvious categories : "ABH" (Anyone But Hillary), "EWE" (Elizabeth Warren Erzatz - Sanders reaches even further to the left, pitching himself as a 'socialist'), and "OFGWAB" (that perennial candidacy type I dubbed "Old Farts Going With A Bang"). If both Jim Webb and Martin O'Malley show up (not to mention Lincoln Chafee), they have little chance to last long in the primaries.

On the Republican side, serious contenders don't want to appear as anonymous members of the tadpole pack. So Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Scott Walker keep waiting (Lindsey Graham could also be a serious contender - but like, two centuries ago?). Among declared candidates, neither Rand Paul nor Mike Huckabee seem to have enjoyed any form of momentum. Marco Rubio made a pretty good start (only tripping a bit during Shinzo Abe's visit - see his flip-flop in ""History is harsh" and other sick jokes"), but Jeb has the capacity to financially suck his campaign dry. Still, Bush The Third must beware not to leave Marco get too much time and space to shine. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina have, as expected, bought their lottery tickets for a Veep slot. Will Jindal join them? Will Perry further embarrass himself? Will Santorum run again, or simply wait for a theocon V.P. call?

And does Barack Obama consider running again, this time under the GOP flag? Some arctic drilling after an ultra-SIG-friendly TPP, anyone? I don't know if Michelle will ever run for the office, but I can't wait to discover the top sponsors of his Obama Foundation...

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2016 - Recyclable Expendables

Ted Cruz and his wife launched this stand up comedy season: Heidi's Goldman Sachs story and Ted's Obamacare flip-flop set the bar relatively high.

as a friend put it, Heidi makes serious dough

Sad to see this nut crack so soon: with Cruz, GOP primaries would be so much more fun to follow! We're not sure Rick Perry will return or Donald Trump go for it, and John Kasich is by no means SNL material.

The main question is: after John McCain and Mitt Romney, will yet another 'fake-moderate' win? For the conservative base, Chris Christie is too billclintonish, Mark Everson too joebidenish, Jeb Bush too Bush, Bobby Jindal too weak, Scott Walker too hollow, Marco Rubio too latino-alienated, Lindsey Graham too dovish (and gay), Ben Carson too... well, you know, not Latino enough? (even if his anti-gay score looks perfect)...

Will the Tea Party decide? No, Rand Paul is too curly and pro-gay-rights.
Will theocons decide? Yes, Mike Huckabee can sing. And seize any opportunity.
Will Netanyahu decide? Hillary is AIPAC-friendly anyway. And it could be worse: Shinzo Abe is the next in line for a speech at the Congress...

If a fake-moderate wins, they might be forced to pick yet another ayatollah as a running mate - of the theocon flavor like Sarah Palin, of the tea party variety like Paul Ryan. Another cycle wasted for the fake-moderates running for a Veep spot, unless Carly Fiorina or Rick Snyder join the early stages of this Love Boat Season 2016.

In a best case scenario, the GOP selects two lukewarm nobodies covering all gender-race-age bases, and easily wins on a Anyone-But-Hillary platform.

Speaking of the Democratic primaries... only Al Franken, Wendy Davis, or Nick Hanauer could spice them up. That, or health issues for Hillary that would open the door to Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Cuomo, Joe Biden and all. For John Kerry, it would take a double miracle with Iran and Israel. And Charlie Crist pulling out a Reagan 1980? An Obama 2008 scenario remains unlikely, but many dream of an Obama 2004 stunt in Philly for DNC 2016 (give Hanauer an hour...). Before that, the primaries will provide opportunities of a lifetime: for ambitious youngsters to show their face (Julian Castro if he can't wait for the VP slot)? for old farts to go with a bang? for a smart anti-conservative to steal the A-B-H votes promised to Warren? Evan Bayh? John Hickenlooper? Mark Warner?

We do know that Janet Yellen won't run, even if the Fed chair is not as 'patient' as she used to be.

Employment is up, the greenback is recovering, the stock exchanges are way too high..., but fundamentally, the US economy is not in a much better shape than national politics or this post-Ferguson society in general. Much of the good news comes from a bad thing (shale gas), and the failure to reform finance sucked the whole world dry, paving the way for the extremes, and even the success of China's AIIB. Greedy money reflated bubbles all the way to where future value is created (research, start-ups...).

After the subprime crisis, we basically rewarded the guys who broke the system, and of course they've been pushing further ever since. How far into the campaign will the gimchi hit the fan?


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If it ain't fixed, break it again

Mitch McConnell - conservatism won vs. change

When America last voted in 2012, Obama was confirmed, and the Democratic lead in the Senate strengthened, but the gap in the House of Representatives only reduced from 193/242 to 201/234, allowing the GOP to maintain its campaign of sabotage in D.C.. Since the POTUS kindly obliged by self-destructing, the Reps are not only back to 241/191 at the House, but also holding a large majority at the Senate. Even if Barack won't let them totally destroy Obamacare, they can do pretty much as they like. 

And go at Hillary's throat. 

If Clinton's popularity erodes further over 2015, a real Plan B could emerge. Someone more likely to succeed than Joe Biden, who doesn't stand a chance - and not only because he's 5 years older than HRC. And preferably someone more consensual than Elizabeth Warren, who said she wouldn't run against the Obvious Candidate, but wouldn't mind being the Obivous One.

Arkansas goes to GOP. Not to Hillary Clinton 2016 - 20141105
twitter.com/stephanemot/status/529808582347198464

Right now, the GOP enjoys a much wider choice of candidates. Of course we'll see Rand Paul and a bunch of new nutties in the great Sarah Palin - Herman Cain tradition. Plus a 2016 version of Jon Huntsman, maybe Rob Portman. This time, if a fresh new face prevails, we may not get an out-of-the-blue Veep Pick.
Among the favorites:
- Chris Christie: the heaviest of the heavyweights, but only literally, and if he returns from his "bridge to you know where"
- Jeb Bush: probably too late for him, too early for George P. Bush
- Pick Your Latino: Ted Cruz a bit boring, but Marco Rubio's place on the ticket is not anymore guaranteed.

Anyway, today, neither America nor the GOP are fixed, and the latter needs to prove it can do something positive to the former.

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Bubba Clinton rocks DNC 2012: GOP Unity My Ass!

The day the NRA and the AIPAC stop dictating political platforms, the USA might become an independent democracy.
 
Day 2 of DNC 2012 started in damage control mode: the Democratic platform had to mention God and Jerusalem to pass the theocratic cut. The POTUS didn't need to receive a 3 A.M. call from the AIPAC to sense the danger for November 6. You can count on conservative pundits to spin this non-event as a blahblahgate blown to biblical proportions, but the case got easily closed. For good measure, Madeleine Albright pinned a splendid "Pro-Israel" brooch on Obama's chest. 
 
And the incident proved that at least, the Democratic Party remains open for debate. Heck: Sister Simone Campbell was even allowed to deliver her "pro-life stance"! And she didn't crucify Romney just to redeem herself or simply because he's a Mormon. 
 

 
Day 2 of DNC 2012 soon switched back to full groovy mode. The floor fretted at the news that Barack would meet Bubba on stage later in the night, and everybody waited for something special from Liz Warren.
 
Meanwhile, with only a few VIPs on stage to hammer the messages (in substance: if Barack Obama stands for working people in the US, Mitt Romney rather watches his own money work in the Caymans), CNN served slices of Hillary to fill the blanks. The Secretary of State had seeked refuge in NonCharlottistan during the Convention, and I bet John Kerry will succeed her for Obama Season V, but when she was abruptly asked how she judged her "boss", she answered with one of the sweetest compliments she ever made to her 2008 rival. Amazing "grace" indeed.
 
Meanwhile, still, John King delt his full deck of maps. I'm pretty sure that when he sleeps, John King sees red and blue county maps. Grey ones when he's got a nightmare. And when he can't fall asleep? He probably recounts Florida 2000 ballots.

Eventually, we didn't have to wait long for great moments. Sandra Fluke did more than deliver a pro-choice speech. She brought down the house and for that, she didn't even have to raise her voice. Sandra Fluke simply rose and use her voice, exactly what conservatives don't like in a woman.

At the beginning of Elizabeth Warren's "warm up act for President Clinton", I confess I thought she too needed a warm up act. Then she started addressing the issues that count, and my oh my, if independent voters listen to her speech, they'll instantly tear down the GOP ballot. Warren stood for all humans against the inhuman program of Romney-Ryan. The best answer to Mitt's infamous "corporations are people".

Bill Clinton trumpeted Barack Obama's second term from Yesterday's Gone to Forward Folks. Not as perfect as Michelle Obama yesterday (Bubba can be too talkative and professoral), but he won her heart by offering his best support to the "man who had the good sense to marry" her. What a one man show! Simply unstoppable. Barack ? "A man cool on the outside but burning for America on the inside". The RNC 2012? In "an alternative universe". Correct location, Bill. And we're not even mentioning Romney's "moral compass", more than questioned by Randy Johnson, a former Bain employee, a couple of hours earlier. By the way, Mitt: Joe Biden's seat is not empty, but all others are. For the standing ovation in his honor, courtesy POTUS #42.
 
Professor Bill Clinton slammed Mitt Romney: the wannabe should learn arithmetic before giving lessons on budget. And even on jobs. America is better off without Republicans who cost her one million jobs by crippling the Congress, and of course GM is better off without Romney in the driving seat. Paul Ryan? It takes an Irishman to know one, it takes a saxophonist to know brass, and "it takes some brass to attack a guy for doing what you did". Struck out, the rookie.

Not only did Bill deliver an even better speech than he would have for himself, but this final, powerful Clinton-Obama embrace? You couldn't find a more perfect union at work.

Cruel comparison with that cold reunion of losers right after Ryan's acceptance speech... Last time Mitt Romney hugged someone so hard, nine month later Ann had their last kid.

 
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* see "DNC 2012 Day 1: Come Together, Now"