If it ain't fixed, break it again

Mitch McConnell - conservatism won vs. change

When America last voted in 2012, Obama was confirmed, and the Democratic lead in the Senate strengthened, but the gap in the House of Representatives only reduced from 193/242 to 201/234, allowing the GOP to maintain its campaign of sabotage in D.C.. Since the POTUS kindly obliged by self-destructing, the Reps are not only back to 241/191 at the House, but also holding a large majority at the Senate. Even if Barack won't let them totally destroy Obamacare, they can do pretty much as they like. 

And go at Hillary's throat. 

If Clinton's popularity erodes further over 2015, a real Plan B could emerge. Someone more likely to succeed than Joe Biden, who doesn't stand a chance - and not only because he's 5 years older than HRC. And preferably someone more consensual than Elizabeth Warren, who said she wouldn't run against the Obvious Candidate, but wouldn't mind being the Obivous One.

Arkansas goes to GOP. Not to Hillary Clinton 2016 - 20141105
twitter.com/stephanemot/status/529808582347198464

Right now, the GOP enjoys a much wider choice of candidates. Of course we'll see Rand Paul and a bunch of new nutties in the great Sarah Palin - Herman Cain tradition. Plus a 2016 version of Jon Huntsman, maybe Rob Portman. This time, if a fresh new face prevails, we may not get an out-of-the-blue Veep Pick.
Among the favorites:
- Chris Christie: the heaviest of the heavyweights, but only literally, and if he returns from his "bridge to you know where"
- Jeb Bush: probably too late for him, too early for George P. Bush
- Pick Your Latino: Ted Cruz a bit boring, but Marco Rubio's place on the ticket is not anymore guaranteed.

Anyway, today, neither America nor the GOP are fixed, and the latter needs to prove it can do something positive to the former.

blogules 2014
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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Six Buffoons in Search of a Kingmaker

It takes a looney to know one: Palin just endorsed Gingrich.

And the only sane person in this nuthouse dropped out of the GOP race (not Stephen Colbert, the other one: Jon Huntsman*).

Which leaves us with 6 people: Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Santorum, Perry, and the future Guest Star.

Who knows from which asylum the nominee shall vet his Veep? And how about a third candidate? Say, from the INETP (INdependent Evangelical Tea Partisans), or from Sarah Palin's LGBT party**?

You know what's missing for GOP candidates this year?

Let me rephrase it: you know who's missing for GOP candidates this year?

Rupert Murdoch.

The Great Kingmaker is out of the race. Posing as a bald monk meditating on some distant hill, chain-twitting pearls of wisdom, but cut off from all wordly matters. Maybe a few eavesdroppings now and then - you can't kick the habit that easily.

Anyway, at Fox News, the whole crew seems to be running headless. Even Theocons need a Qibla.

Ideology-wise, surviving members of the nuthouse can only agree on their greatest common divisors:

1) They want to kick Obama out. On the grounds that...
... the guy's a sissy (he won a Nobel Peace Prize, only used two choppers to kill Osama, and didn't even invade Libya to get Qaddafi)
... he's screaming at oil diggers as soon as they spill a bucket or two in the Gulf
... he's a divisive figure: our dear GOP has never been so divided
... he was not even born in the United States of Amerika, and, for the Grand Wizard's sake, the place is called The WHITE House for a reason, duntcha think?

2) They want to Restore Amerikan Honor. In other words...
... restore the great Amerikan values (teaching creationism at school, and waterboarding at West Point),
... restore the sound economy of 2008
... restore budget orthodoxy by removing all taxes and launching an illegal war
... invest less on schools (to prevent the Steve Jobs of tomorrow from happening), and remove all regulations (to create a land of opportunities for the Kenneth Lays, Bernie Ebberses, and Bernie Maddoffs of tomorrow)

Six buffoons in search of a Kingmaker...

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* who, eventually, didn't get a ticket to ride all the way to Florida (see "Grand Old Parting: fix your party before causing more damage to your country")
** see "Mid-Term Elections : Sarah Palin to run in West Dakota"

Grand Old Parting: fix your party before causing more damage to your country

Can a Republican reach the White House this year? The answer is yes, possibly, but the real question should be: can Republicans actually run the country anywhere except into the wall*?

As I write, South Carolina Evangelists are preferring Mitt Romney to Rick Saint Orum**, and most pundits expect him to become the next GOP nominee. Mitt is probably considering vetting a running mate who doesn't know how to don the white shirt and wag the Book of Mormon, but Newt Gingrich keeps throwing Hail-Mary-passes and Latter-day Slanders, actually helping Romney for the general elections by depicting him as a Massachusetts moderate (the closest thing to a mass murderer in Amerikan lingua). For GOP's sake, even Harry Reid is a mormon.

Rick Perry is a moron, so he can perfectly qualify for the Veep position, in the great Dan Quayle tradition. Twitter darling Ron Paul prefers to bet on the next caucuses (Nevada): obviously, Libertarians cannot trust pure democracy, you know, that process where voters are actually free to think by themselves when they cast a ballot? I wish Ron were running as an Indy come November to ruin the party, but he might be tempted to salvage a few bridges for his son Rand, a mini-me with a sheep wig (Gary Johnson? I said nevermind). Which leaves us with Donald Trump, a Romney impersonator with an even sillier wig, but who does a decent "you're fired".

Mercifully, because Jon Huntsman didn't drown in New Hampshire, we'll enjoy the presence of a reasonable man in the race until at least Florida.

Mitt Romney also seems a reasonable man, but if you're starting to picture him as the next POTUS, here's some food for thought:

.Yes, this guy can win...:
- Okay, he speaks quite good French, but he is likeable enough (though not as much as Hillary, with whom I bet - four years ago - that Obama would replace Biden for his 2012 run), and he is a moderate by nowadays GOP standards (which doesn't mean anything, but some independent voters might get fooled, and even Reaganians could fall for this caricature character from a 1980s sitcom). But Romney won't be allowed to run without making unacceptable compromize, and without a dangerous lunatic one heartbeat away from nominating the next Supreme Justice.

... but no, neither Romney nor any other Republican candidate should become President...:
- We're not just talking about a person but about a party. And right now, the Republican party is not fit for power. Simple as that. This divided nation cannot afford a divided party that hasn't achieved anything positive over the past twenty years, and officially imploded eight years ago***. If they really love their country and their party, Republicans must first reform the GOP to transform it into a sustainable platform, fit to govern the nation. Even the Democrats did it twenty years ago by getting rid of their most caricatural parts, and by trading ideology for pragmatism. Of course, Reps still manage to win now and then (and not always by cheating in Florida), but look how they fail miserably when they do. And the only time they came up with a consistent vision, it was the ultimate negation of republican and democratic values. You want more impostures? Guess who turned record surplusses into record deficits, privatizing gains and socializing losses? And guess who saved American capitalism?

... and yes, Obama is still the man:
- Yes he could have performed better in many ways at home and abroad, but the things he did wrong were the things he did the conservative way, for instance getting along with corporate abuses or Israel excesses. At home, Obama managed historic reforms before the Reps shook the House. Yes, the economy hasn't recovered yet, but he has already cleaned an impressive part of the incommensurable mess they caused, and even until now they keep provoking further damage (last year's surreal budget drama exposed if needed the GOP's inability to govern). Yes, Guantanamo is not closed yet, and yes, Obama couldn't prevent the implosion of Iraq borne by the 2003 invasion, but he proved a better and smarter Commander in Chief by getting Bin Laden and freeing Libya with limited means. Yes Iran remains a danger, but the regime has lost the ideological battle home and Obama was inspirational for a change that later rocked the region.

Yes, he can.

But for that, he needs four more years, and a majority.

Since America is a free country, voters can decide that they preferred the way the country was run before Obama (reminder: the Bush-Cheney administration destroyed more value and more values than any other in American history), and that the whole country should be run like the House they voted for in 2006 (a disgrace mocked all over the world). A no-brainer, I tellya.

Right before the 2010 midterm elections I asked that simple question: "Can America really afford a Republican Second Dip?".

I have the bad habit of repeating myself, but so does History.


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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*without caps: forget about that dream image of a bull on Wall Street.
**For the few retards who didn't catch his subtle marketing positioning, and the surprisingly many retards who embraced it, Rick Santorum wrote down a few words below his name on his campaign billboards: Faith, Family, and Freedom. In other words: Theocons, Paleocons, and Anticons* (for that latest flavor, see "Grand Old Parting - enter the anticons").
*** see "GOP: time to split"

Grand Old Parting - enter the anticons

Just a few months left before the NH kickoff, but the Republican primaries have already entertained us with series of debates and debacles.

Among the "quitters", Sarah Palin refused to follow Segolene Royal in a doomed candidacy (the French diva who rocked the 2007 presidential elections claimed only 7% of the votes in the first round of the Socialist primaries). Tim Pawlenty illustrated the Peter Principle by exposing his incompetence as early as he postulated for the job. Donald Trump made us laugh with his usual roaring 80s / toupee in fire routine. Chris Christie didn't even try to run - the New Jersey heavyweight will have to find other ways of getting fit.

Among the "no shows", Bobby Jindal or Charlie Crist seem to focus on 2016... or poised to become "has-beens that never were".

Among the "Tea Partiers", Michele Bachmann is the most likely to cause durable damage withing GOP ranks. Libertarian in Chief Ron Paul (I won't even mention Gary Johnson) cannot rise as high as MB in the polls, and he will not try a Ross Perot diversion.

Yet, letting Tea Partiers run by themselves would be the smart choice for Republicans. As we all know, the Grand Old Party never recovered from the 2004 implosion (see "GOP: time to split"), and those paleocon-neocon-theocon divisions have been amplified by the emergence of yet another torpedo, the Tea Party.

I'd rather call these guys "anticons": the Tea Party is not just an alternative to the Republican or the Democratic parties, but the very negation of the republic, the very negation of democracy. The Tea Party refuses the balance of powers, of rights and duties that forge modern democracies. Make no mistake: if this imposture claims a revival of founding principles, it ultimately seeks their destruction. And Michelle Bachmann should never be allowed to break that fragile glass floor.

What does it leave us as we speak ? Newt Gingrich ? Come on ! Rick Santorum ? That man would sign a pledge of allegiance to the Devil to get nominated. Rick Perry ? An empty shell, a Dubya clone lacking his model's conviction and clutches (Karl Rove, Dick Cheney).

Mitt Romney has tried everything he could save visiting the Discovery Institute (he changed his mind on liberal reforms, and pledged to nominate judges that would revoke Roe v. Wade, but doesn't condone creationism yet). Even though, the mormon label remains a drag.

Herman Cain seems to propose the impossible synthesis between conservatism and teapartism (a populist 9-9-9 tax plan that only flies in polls), and the African American from Georgia could challenge Obama with his corporate background (even Mitt Romney struggles against this former CEO and Federal Reserve Banker).

For the moment, the most sustainable candidate seems doomed : Jon Huntsman has decided to take the high road, the closest thing to a dead-end for a GOP candidate nowadays.

blogules 2011

Obama 2012

Out of the blue, an e-mail from Barack, simply titled "2012"*, with a link to a YouTube video (is it "it starts with us" or "it starts with US" ?).

Obama does remain the favorite for the next elections. In spite of the Mid-Term Elections disaster. In spite of the disappointment of his liberal democrat base (not very happy with the reforms' compromises and the Bush heritage (Gitmo and Iraq mess). In spite of the Republican revival (the party has split anyway, remember "GOP, time to split" ?). In spite of an army of potential opponents : Jon Huntsman, Tim Pawlenty, Donald Trump, Bobby Jindal, Mitt Romney...

Among key achievements : a Nobel Peace Prize, ambitious reforms, two moderates at the Supreme Court, diplomatic success in Tunisia, and a spectacularly improved image for the country overseas (even WikiLeaks failed to destroy it). All this while facing a major depression, the country's worst environmental disaster ever, and series of uprisings across the Muslim world...

Among key disappointments : a very poor communication for internal affairs (disconnected, maybe overprotected by Rahm Emanuel ?), and Israel for foreign affairs. The POTUS obviously spared AIPAC and finance lobbies to secure his reforms, and then to limit the damage at the mid-term elections.

Overall, Barack Hussein Obama governed from the center and rather well, even if he exposed some limits. In a perfect world, he would be easily reelected, then get rid of the Geithners and Summerses, and finally would focus on history and in particular the Israel-Palstine case. Once again thrashed, the GOP would at last start its own reforms, get rid of the Palins and Pauls, and push a moderate and pragmatic candidate for 2016.

In the worst case scenario, Americans would elect a pseudo-Republican populist impostor and irreversibly cut the country in two.


blogules 2011

* Stephane --

Today, we are filing papers to launch our 2012 campaign.

We're doing this now because the politics we believe in does not start with expensive TV ads or extravaganzas, but with you -- with people organizing block-by-block, talking to neighbors, co-workers, and friends. And that kind of campaign takes time to build.

So even though I'm focused on the job you elected me to do, and the race may not reach full speed for a year or more, the work of laying the foundation for our campaign must start today.

We've always known that lasting change wouldn't come quickly or easily. It never does. But as my administration and folks across the country fight to protect the progress we've made -- and make more -- we also need to begin mobilizing for 2012, long before the time comes for me to begin campaigning in earnest.

As we take this step, I'd like to share a video that features some folks like you who are helping to lead the way on this journey. Please take a moment to watch:




In the coming days, supporters like you will begin forging a new organization that we'll build together in cities and towns across the country. And I'll need you to help shape our plan as we create a campaign that's farther reaching, more focused, and more innovative than anything we've built before.

We'll start by doing something unprecedented: coordinating millions of one-on-one conversations between supporters across every single state, reconnecting old friends, inspiring new ones to join the cause, and readying ourselves for next year's fight.

This will be my final campaign, at least as a candidate. But the cause of making a lasting difference for our families, our communities, and our country has never been about one person. And it will succeed only if we work together.

There will be much more to come as the race unfolds. Today, simply let us know you're in to help us begin, and then spread the word:

http://my.barackobama.com/2012

Thank you,

Barack