Jeb? A World Leader? Not kidding anyone anymore

After CNBC's controversial show, the GOP now leads Dems 3-1 in presidential debates.

This time, Jeb Bush seems to have lost big time, and against his most direct rival Marco Rubio, who confirmed in an almost 2008-No-Drama-Obama fashion that he was a top contender for next year.

Even Chris Christie had a slice of Jeb for breakfast, leaving the Bush Campaign in a fantasy league of its own. I couldn't help but imagine Dubya's brother in a decisive meeting at the White House. He'd be wolfed down by any of his advisers, and he told us himself that they would be the same guys who advised W... America doesn't need this kind of "Commandee in Chief".

The usual clowns (Stan Carson and Laurel Trump) left the stage to Carly Fiorina, who didn't make much of all that airtime. Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee cracked good ones and the audience, and at this pace, Trump won't even have to complain about the presence of Rand Paul or John Kasich at each corner of the stage, come November 10 and the 4th debate in Milwaukee Theatre.

Four days before, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley will have met for a quiet chat in Rock Hill, SC. Without Lincoln Chaffee and Jim Webb, who excused themselves, and without Joe Biden, who understood after the First Democratic Debate that Hillary wouldn't crash that early. She even won the first GOP-Dem debate at Capitol Hill for the Benghazi hearings.

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After helping him boost their ratings, CNN dump Trump

These days, I usually have Trump for breakfast, courtesy CNN. Seoul time is perfect to enjoy primary debates (that, at times, look and sound like debates between primates), and the daily dose of Trump delivered by this network to build up more audience than Fox News for its own GOP debate.

Fun to see Anderson Cooper and Co. pull out two negative stories against Teflon Don the very day following said debate.To be fair, both issues had to be raised: one on a event supposed to be for Veterans, the other on an anti-Muslim question raised at a Town Hall meeting.

Anyway, here's my scorecard for yesterday's debate - +s and -s are not an appreciation of each candidate, but my perception of their net gain/loss compared to before the debate:

• +++ Carly Fiorina confirms her lock on the Veep position, and she can aim higher. But for that, she needs to show her 'human' side... if any. 
• ++ Jeb Bush did more than show up. He scored high on family values (wife, dad, bro), and stole some weed from W's wisecracking stash. If his body language remains that of a reluctant and insecure leader, he gained precious points where in the previous debate, he was more into not losing any.
• + Marco Rubio moved to the next level, back into challenger territory. His stupid joke on California drought might cost him an important State for the primaries.
• + Chris Christie remains the dude you want to listen to. He perfectly seized each opportunity to shift the debate to audience-connecting grounds, like in his inaugural address, or with his remarks on the 'entertaining' bragging bout between Carly and Don. He cleverly displayed his Conservative credentials, and positioned himself as the good cop who knows when to get tough. He'd make a very strong nominee against any Dem candidate, but stands little chance for the moment in a GOP primary.
• = Ben Carson was a bit more at ease than in the first debate, where he didn't impress me much, but scored big. He didn't show anything new, but risks less of losing ground than Trump in that regard. Still, he left Bush take seat number two.
• = Scott Walker had his moments, but can't help looking like a lightweight. This GOP wants a different presence on stage.
• = Ted Cruz carved himself into a cold, stubborn monolith that only like-minded people can stick to.
• - John Kasich stuck to his unmovable script, a rambling old timer stuck in the past.
• - Rand Paul did receive an initial boost from DT, who honored him by noticing his presence. But he continued on his negative trend, even if he fared much better than last time, using the Constitution as a cane to prevent further collapse.
• - Donald Trump donaldtrumped for three hours, but in front of Reagan's Air Force One, Air Farce One played too often defense, exposing moments of inertia that may cost him more than his outrageous remarks. This man badly needs something new to last. He's still the biggest presence, but boy, did he look like an old, tired lion about to lose his alpha male status... He even failed to compare himself to Ron born-again Republican Reagan.
• -- Mike Huckabee is already out of the race, a commentator speaking of the nominee as a distant third person.

*

My Twitter timeline around the debate:


20150826 - Watched today's episode of The Apprentice President on CNN. As usual, Donald Trump outdonaldtrumped himself. (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/636331305089679360):

20150915 - Daily dose of Donald Trump on CNN. As usual, as funny as scary. (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/643585423235637248)

20150917 (Debate Day part I):
. GOP debate of smaller losers drawing to an end on CNN (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/644295898319556608)
. Armaggdon - GOP debate (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/644300121971167232)
. Scott Walker Back in the Race. Jeb Bush caught between him & Donald Trump. Body language of a weak bystander - GOP debate (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/644306529454129152)

20150917 (Debate Day part II):
. Ted Cruz thinks he'd be the perfect theocratic commander in chief to face a 'theocratic ayatollah' - GOP Debate (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/644312765625008128)
. Jeb Bush confirms his advisors advised dad George H. W. Bush and bro George W. Bush... (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/644330158984265728)
. Jeb Bush: G.W. Bush kept us safe. By fueling worldwide terror? By paving the way for ISIS? - GOP Debate (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/644331145597816832) 
. Jeb Bush - Donald Trump low fiving now - GOP Debate (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/644344804105711620)

. Curious to see how Donald Trump bubble scores now. Issues were raised at GOP debate, and he played defense (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/644347252366946304)

20150917 (Debate Day part III):
. Donald Trump on CNN: nobody did bullying. Rand Paul might disagree (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/644349243705065472)
. As expected, Carly Fiorina secured the Veep spot. Aiming higher now, but too tough. Losing a kid to drugs a handicap then. GOP debate (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/644373833021919232)
20150918
.CNN waited after GOP Debate to demolish the Donald Trump they've helped build up to boost their ratings. Raise anti-Muslim, Vet issues (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/644670334562471936)

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GOP's Got Talent

Today, Jon Stewart left The Daily Show to join the Academy Award trail - fare well Maestro!

A dozen people embracing Jon Stewart in a big hug, what a contrast with the GOP Debate podium!

Now Fox News can claim the top spot for political entertainment and not fully thought through opinions. 

Today, no fewer that 10 top stand-up comedians took the stage for the first GOP Debate, and we're not even counting the minor candidates, who enjoyed their own open mic hours before!

America's Got Talent: today, 10 funniest stand-up comedy talents on GOP Debate (tough competition for Donald Trump) (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629481901875556352)

Here's how the 10 (+1) fared:

• 2 over-performed:

As often in the case, the winners are underdogs: Carly Fiorina confirmed her potential as the perfect running mate, and John Kasich was, to put it simply, in the zone - his comfort zone (as long as this guy can repeat his same 'I did that' speech he's okay, but he'll be in trouble once the field's cleared up and he's given more time to talk about other issues).

• 1 lost big:

Not only did Rand Paul sink, but to add insult to injury, Trump was the one who delivered the death blow.

• 1 won the Democratic debate:

Chris Christie played the full orchestra: compassionate, conservative, patriot act hawkish, Obama hugger, no-nonsense tea partier hunter, good cop and bad cop, Hulk and Baloo.

• 3 did exactly what was expected from them:

Jeb Bush by keeping low profile, staying below radar surface, and even ending with the dullest closing words. So he didn't win today's debate, but the aim was not to lose it, so mission accomplished magna cum boredom. 

Donald Trump by roaring outrageous Trumpisms that would terminate all hopes for any normal candidate, but will keep him in the race for a while. Chris Wallace and his Fox News pals tried their best to expose his ugliest sides and his lack of knowledge on key issues, but Donald Excuse Me Trump proudly owned up to every single monstrosity he ever said or did.

Marco Rubio by playing his charmingly hollow, perfect son in law self: my parents did all the tough parts, including my face, but I learned how to smile all by myself, so I'm qualified for the job.

• 4 performed so-so:

Sorry but I still can't take Scott Walker seriously. He may be one of the least worst in the pack, each time he speaks I see Steve Carell.

Ted Cruz was, is, will be a loser.

Ben Carson is not a jaded politician and it shows. The unnatural way he waves his arms, how his eyes keep returning to his notes / screen... Regardless of what he says you can't trust a leader who doesn't trust himself.

I was about to face-palm when Mike Huckabee started his wrap-up (he's not going to denigrate Trump when he's supposed to finish on a positive me-note?!?), when he pulled his Hillary Clinton joke. Got me, but didn't seize the day.

BTW: now please give me a good Hillary Clinton - Bernie Sanders fight.

Rick Perry jabs at Donald Trump in absentia at Minor League debate. Huckabee to do the same in the main Nuthouse That GOP Built (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629454011456884736)

GOP Debate starts with individual Q&A. Here, Chris Christie on how he slimmed down (the NJ budget, not his own weight) (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629463191509045248)

Robin Williams still alive, Steve Carell still making a fool of himself (Ted Cruz and Scott Walker at GOP Debate) (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629467865557504001)

Ben Carson body language: what am I doing here?
Certainly no Commander in Chief material (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629468580174639104)

Donald Trump at Rand Paul with the grace of a buldozer: "you're having a bad night" - actually "you're having a bad time today" (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629469326622478336)

Donald Trump proud of milking the system he pledges to change, of making money at other peoples expense. Surreal GOP Debate (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629475624281706496)

Donald Trump in Atlantic City: I took the money and ran.
Christ Christie in NJ: I restored the budget, now I can run for Prez.
GOP Debate (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629477659890749440)

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ABH Corpus

Even if many heavyweights are taking their time, the 2016 race is considerably more crowded than when Ted Cruz launched / torpedoed his own campaign (see "2016 - Recyclable Expendables").

By submitting his candidacy first after Hillary on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders claimed at least 3 obvious categories : "ABH" (Anyone But Hillary), "EWE" (Elizabeth Warren Erzatz - Sanders reaches even further to the left, pitching himself as a 'socialist'), and "OFGWAB" (that perennial candidacy type I dubbed "Old Farts Going With A Bang"). If both Jim Webb and Martin O'Malley show up (not to mention Lincoln Chafee), they have little chance to last long in the primaries.

On the Republican side, serious contenders don't want to appear as anonymous members of the tadpole pack. So Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Scott Walker keep waiting (Lindsey Graham could also be a serious contender - but like, two centuries ago?). Among declared candidates, neither Rand Paul nor Mike Huckabee seem to have enjoyed any form of momentum. Marco Rubio made a pretty good start (only tripping a bit during Shinzo Abe's visit - see his flip-flop in ""History is harsh" and other sick jokes"), but Jeb has the capacity to financially suck his campaign dry. Still, Bush The Third must beware not to leave Marco get too much time and space to shine. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina have, as expected, bought their lottery tickets for a Veep slot. Will Jindal join them? Will Perry further embarrass himself? Will Santorum run again, or simply wait for a theocon V.P. call?

And does Barack Obama consider running again, this time under the GOP flag? Some arctic drilling after an ultra-SIG-friendly TPP, anyone? I don't know if Michelle will ever run for the office, but I can't wait to discover the top sponsors of his Obama Foundation...

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2016 - Recyclable Expendables

Ted Cruz and his wife launched this stand up comedy season: Heidi's Goldman Sachs story and Ted's Obamacare flip-flop set the bar relatively high.

as a friend put it, Heidi makes serious dough

Sad to see this nut crack so soon: with Cruz, GOP primaries would be so much more fun to follow! We're not sure Rick Perry will return or Donald Trump go for it, and John Kasich is by no means SNL material.

The main question is: after John McCain and Mitt Romney, will yet another 'fake-moderate' win? For the conservative base, Chris Christie is too billclintonish, Mark Everson too joebidenish, Jeb Bush too Bush, Bobby Jindal too weak, Scott Walker too hollow, Marco Rubio too latino-alienated, Lindsey Graham too dovish (and gay), Ben Carson too... well, you know, not Latino enough? (even if his anti-gay score looks perfect)...

Will the Tea Party decide? No, Rand Paul is too curly and pro-gay-rights.
Will theocons decide? Yes, Mike Huckabee can sing. And seize any opportunity.
Will Netanyahu decide? Hillary is AIPAC-friendly anyway. And it could be worse: Shinzo Abe is the next in line for a speech at the Congress...

If a fake-moderate wins, they might be forced to pick yet another ayatollah as a running mate - of the theocon flavor like Sarah Palin, of the tea party variety like Paul Ryan. Another cycle wasted for the fake-moderates running for a Veep spot, unless Carly Fiorina or Rick Snyder join the early stages of this Love Boat Season 2016.

In a best case scenario, the GOP selects two lukewarm nobodies covering all gender-race-age bases, and easily wins on a Anyone-But-Hillary platform.

Speaking of the Democratic primaries... only Al Franken, Wendy Davis, or Nick Hanauer could spice them up. That, or health issues for Hillary that would open the door to Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Cuomo, Joe Biden and all. For John Kerry, it would take a double miracle with Iran and Israel. And Charlie Crist pulling out a Reagan 1980? An Obama 2008 scenario remains unlikely, but many dream of an Obama 2004 stunt in Philly for DNC 2016 (give Hanauer an hour...). Before that, the primaries will provide opportunities of a lifetime: for ambitious youngsters to show their face (Julian Castro if he can't wait for the VP slot)? for old farts to go with a bang? for a smart anti-conservative to steal the A-B-H votes promised to Warren? Evan Bayh? John Hickenlooper? Mark Warner?

We do know that Janet Yellen won't run, even if the Fed chair is not as 'patient' as she used to be.

Employment is up, the greenback is recovering, the stock exchanges are way too high..., but fundamentally, the US economy is not in a much better shape than national politics or this post-Ferguson society in general. Much of the good news comes from a bad thing (shale gas), and the failure to reform finance sucked the whole world dry, paving the way for the extremes, and even the success of China's AIIB. Greedy money reflated bubbles all the way to where future value is created (research, start-ups...).

After the subprime crisis, we basically rewarded the guys who broke the system, and of course they've been pushing further ever since. How far into the campaign will the gimchi hit the fan?


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Lies, damned lies, and RNCs

Another marvelous day in Tampa, Fantasy Land*.

The doomed project of "humanizing" GOP candidate "I, RomnBot" continues with an incredible cast of losers:

- Mitch McConnell, a poster child for the GOP's obstructiveness in DC, criticizing the Democrats for being divisive

- Rand Paul, undeterred by the video eulogy for his not-dead-yet dad (persona non grata in the fakely harmonious reunion), delivered a more or less edulcorated version of the familial mantra, punctuated by one or two mentions of the official candidate

- John McCain, who wished he came "under other circumstances", completed the consistent "support" of an utterly divided party to an utterly flip-flop candidate: Rand Paul asked for less defense? John McCain asked for more defense, simple as that. Republicans, when Romney adresses RNC 2016, you'll feel as relieved he wasn't elected as you are now listening to this guy.

- Bobby Jindal didn't show up thanks to Hurricane Isaac, the perfect alibi to skip the embarrassing display of hypocrisy and denial.

- Rob Portman said something true: "blaming others doesn't qualify as a plan". Right. That's why the GOP doesn't qualify as a ruling party. He went on to tell a "classic American story", using his dad's entrepreneur aura for political purposes just like Mitt. Who built it? Not you guys.

- Tim Pawlenty brought tears to my face. This man is so funnily pathetic. No one laughed when he criticized Obama for being the POTUS who spends most time on holidays and golf: all other Republicans have an elephant memory long enough to remember George W. Bush. Actually, Dubya and 41 showed up on the screen. They didn't want to be associated with this comedy and just chatted by the green, remembering the good old days when they roamed the Oval Office.

- A Mike Huckabee look-alike hijacked the stage, and for one moment, I almost believed it was the same guy who kept bashing Mitt Romney on FoxNews.

- Then came Condescending Rice. The woman who contributed to the worst foreign affair messes in US history dared give a few lessons to a man who received a Nobel Peace Prize for restoring America's credibility worldwide, and got rid of Bin Laden and Gaddafi without losing one soldier. Condi Rice also dared bring up 9/11 and the way true leaders should react to crisis: by reading "My Pet Goat"? She went on and dared speak about how we should stand up against tyrants, she who sat while playing the piano for Vladimir Putin... Shameless, and proud of it.

- I'm glad Susana Martinez wasn't the last speaker tonight: by many standards, she was the ideal running mate for Romney. But by saying "no more barriers", she did nothing less than advertise for Obama's immigration policies and against Romney's program. The thing is, as soon as someone starts saying something sensible in this convention, it always sounds like an echo to the Obama-Biden campaign, and a condemnation of the Romney-Ryan ticket.

- If Paul Ryan's speech sounds familiar, that's because it was written by the same guy who carved those of Sarah Palin, Dick Cheney, and Dan Quayle, the man I keep seeing each time Ryan appears in public. Some guy may look likeable and full of humor, so was George W. Bush, also a man with more than radical and dangerous visions. Like all others, Paul Ryan lied. And I still can't believe how he dared bring up GM against Obama. Maybe he didn't vet his running mate carefully enough. Worse: the factory he said closed after Obama pledged to save it? It went down under Dubya's watch.

This convention is as outrageous as pathetic. At least, before, enemies showed up in person. Even McCain claimed 99% of the delegates in the end (only 90% for Romney).

Tomorrow, Newt Gingrich will show up in person. He wasn't allowed a prime time slot of course. But I can't wait to read between his acid lines.

Mitt Romney will close the farce. After Marco Rubio, probably his second choice if Ryan hadn't pass the cut. Not as good an orator as the Wisconsin representative, but precisely: Romney is such a downer, the damage will already be half done.

Rubio's job will be to sell Romney as a Tea Party compatible product, and maybe to to prepare the audience for another hurricane: his former rival for Florida Charlie Crist will speak at the Democratic National Convention.

So far, he's been the only (former) Republican to tell the truth: "An element of (the) party has pitched so far to the extreme right on issues important to women, immigrants, seniors and students that they've proven incapable of governing for the people".


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* see "Total Un-Recall: RNC 2012 In Denial, Welcome to Tampa, FL (Fantasy Land)" and "Attack of the GOP First Lady Wannabe clones"

Grand Old Parting: fix your party before causing more damage to your country

Can a Republican reach the White House this year? The answer is yes, possibly, but the real question should be: can Republicans actually run the country anywhere except into the wall*?

As I write, South Carolina Evangelists are preferring Mitt Romney to Rick Saint Orum**, and most pundits expect him to become the next GOP nominee. Mitt is probably considering vetting a running mate who doesn't know how to don the white shirt and wag the Book of Mormon, but Newt Gingrich keeps throwing Hail-Mary-passes and Latter-day Slanders, actually helping Romney for the general elections by depicting him as a Massachusetts moderate (the closest thing to a mass murderer in Amerikan lingua). For GOP's sake, even Harry Reid is a mormon.

Rick Perry is a moron, so he can perfectly qualify for the Veep position, in the great Dan Quayle tradition. Twitter darling Ron Paul prefers to bet on the next caucuses (Nevada): obviously, Libertarians cannot trust pure democracy, you know, that process where voters are actually free to think by themselves when they cast a ballot? I wish Ron were running as an Indy come November to ruin the party, but he might be tempted to salvage a few bridges for his son Rand, a mini-me with a sheep wig (Gary Johnson? I said nevermind). Which leaves us with Donald Trump, a Romney impersonator with an even sillier wig, but who does a decent "you're fired".

Mercifully, because Jon Huntsman didn't drown in New Hampshire, we'll enjoy the presence of a reasonable man in the race until at least Florida.

Mitt Romney also seems a reasonable man, but if you're starting to picture him as the next POTUS, here's some food for thought:

.Yes, this guy can win...:
- Okay, he speaks quite good French, but he is likeable enough (though not as much as Hillary, with whom I bet - four years ago - that Obama would replace Biden for his 2012 run), and he is a moderate by nowadays GOP standards (which doesn't mean anything, but some independent voters might get fooled, and even Reaganians could fall for this caricature character from a 1980s sitcom). But Romney won't be allowed to run without making unacceptable compromize, and without a dangerous lunatic one heartbeat away from nominating the next Supreme Justice.

... but no, neither Romney nor any other Republican candidate should become President...:
- We're not just talking about a person but about a party. And right now, the Republican party is not fit for power. Simple as that. This divided nation cannot afford a divided party that hasn't achieved anything positive over the past twenty years, and officially imploded eight years ago***. If they really love their country and their party, Republicans must first reform the GOP to transform it into a sustainable platform, fit to govern the nation. Even the Democrats did it twenty years ago by getting rid of their most caricatural parts, and by trading ideology for pragmatism. Of course, Reps still manage to win now and then (and not always by cheating in Florida), but look how they fail miserably when they do. And the only time they came up with a consistent vision, it was the ultimate negation of republican and democratic values. You want more impostures? Guess who turned record surplusses into record deficits, privatizing gains and socializing losses? And guess who saved American capitalism?

... and yes, Obama is still the man:
- Yes he could have performed better in many ways at home and abroad, but the things he did wrong were the things he did the conservative way, for instance getting along with corporate abuses or Israel excesses. At home, Obama managed historic reforms before the Reps shook the House. Yes, the economy hasn't recovered yet, but he has already cleaned an impressive part of the incommensurable mess they caused, and even until now they keep provoking further damage (last year's surreal budget drama exposed if needed the GOP's inability to govern). Yes, Guantanamo is not closed yet, and yes, Obama couldn't prevent the implosion of Iraq borne by the 2003 invasion, but he proved a better and smarter Commander in Chief by getting Bin Laden and freeing Libya with limited means. Yes Iran remains a danger, but the regime has lost the ideological battle home and Obama was inspirational for a change that later rocked the region.

Yes, he can.

But for that, he needs four more years, and a majority.

Since America is a free country, voters can decide that they preferred the way the country was run before Obama (reminder: the Bush-Cheney administration destroyed more value and more values than any other in American history), and that the whole country should be run like the House they voted for in 2006 (a disgrace mocked all over the world). A no-brainer, I tellya.

Right before the 2010 midterm elections I asked that simple question: "Can America really afford a Republican Second Dip?".

I have the bad habit of repeating myself, but so does History.


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*without caps: forget about that dream image of a bull on Wall Street.
**For the few retards who didn't catch his subtle marketing positioning, and the surprisingly many retards who embraced it, Rick Santorum wrote down a few words below his name on his campaign billboards: Faith, Family, and Freedom. In other words: Theocons, Paleocons, and Anticons* (for that latest flavor, see "Grand Old Parting - enter the anticons").
*** see "GOP: time to split"