Deuce in Senate, Now Who's Ready To Serve For America?

So the Trump Insurrection failed, the disgraced POTUS and his white supremacist followers face trial, Anthony Fauci can at long last speak openly with the blessing of sound leaders (welcome to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris), and poetry has never been that supercool (O Say Can You See Amanda Gorman?).

But. 

Coronavirus destruction has yet to peak, Qanon propagandists have yet to mutate and splinter into new murderous sleeping cells, Obstructionist in Chief Mitch McConnell remains the most noxious politician in town, and the GOP has yet to declare its independence from its worst enemies from within (don't count on Kevin McCarthy, whose new blend of mccarhyism will forever associate the House GOP's legacy to that of the ultimate traitor). 

Can new budget chair Bernie Sanders balance Trump Era's kolossal deficits?

This time, GOP lawmakers won't go away with the outrageous elusive tactics they used for the 2020 impeachment. They'll have to decide how History will remember them by answering simple questions: is it okay for a President to incite an insurrection? can Donald Trump be allowed to run again for office?

I count on justice to at last catch up with Trump, his corrupt family, his enablers (Ted Cruz must go, but bigger fishes must as well), and all blends of hatemongers who preyed upon the desperate and the gullible.

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A Democratic. National. Convention. With Mender In Chief Joe Biden.

Forget the confetti, forget the spin room, Zoom-in on issues and character. The 'Unconventional Convention' delivered the goods that matter.

'We The People' DNC 2020 will soon give way to 'Me Donald' RNC 2020, an alternative reality show where America will be pitched as stronger than ever, admired and respected overseas, her POTUS a winner, a strong, courageous patriot that will protect the people from a chaos like the World has never seen before. As if America weren't on her knees, despised overseas, her POTUS a pathetic failure, a coward narcissist that corrupts and bankrupts everything he touches, and the very person who keeps bringing and nurturing 'unpresidented' chaos. A sick joke that gets every day sicker and deadlier.

But let's get back to a Democratic National Convention that was all about Democracy, all about the Nation, all about Convening. 

 

Joe, Kamala, Michelle, Barack - one message: vote to save democracy, the constitution, the soul of a nation, and its future.

We saw all kinds of faces and faiths, we heard all kinds of voices (even from more significant Republicans than ever before), we felt all sources of positive and sustainable energy to tap into. We witnessed the cultural and political diversity that makes America truly great. 

Four pillars emerged*: Michelle and Barack Obama reaffirmed the moral and constitutional foundations, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris provided the platform for changes which they may not embody best themselves, but will do everything to enable as the next presidents of the United States**. They proved that they care, and that they know how to get things done. 

These four faces do not say 'we won' to Bernie or A.O.C., but 'we will win all together' to keep democracy and the debate alive. That's why Joe is the perfect president for this time. Because he knows he's not perfect, because everybody knows he's the ideal, non-ideological Mender in Chief, and because he already demonstrated that he could listen to and work with people like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, or John McCain.

More urgent debates will arrive soon, even more thrilling; Meltdown Trump will need even more boxes of uppers as usual to confront the man he likes to depict as 'sleepy', and I can't wait to see Kamala face to face (no chaperones) with 'Cheerleader's Cheerleader' Mike Pence...

Beyond conventions and debates, democracy will only win if everybody votes on time. Massively. In every State. In every county and parish. In every town and township. And for that to happen, everybody must get ready now, make a plan to defeat the voter suppression campaigns led by Trump and his enablers.

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* I'm not forgetting the formidable Jill Biden, both a pillar and the keystone.

** full disclosure: Kamala Harris was my favorite candidate during the primaries.

Ending the Trump-McConnell Era

Donald Trump is focusing on 4 priorities to secure his reelection:

• delaying the upcoming downturn to after November 2020, even if it means destroying US competitiveness to achieve it 
• building the new sections of the wall he promised, even if US taxpayers pay for it, and double if you consider the fact that he's taking on other budgets to do it (triple if you consider the fact that he's slashing security and military budgets). 
• positioning Democrats as socialist extremists, even if some oblige by doing it by themselves (exhibit A: Bernie Sanders) 
• preventing key demographics from voting, through classic voter suppression techniques (e.g. gerrymandering) as well as through his own trademark methods (e.g. turning politics into a disgusting circus, scaring minorities away with threats of ICE raids)

For the moment, DJT seems on a much better track than in 2016. The question is: this time, how much will he be allowed to compensate a likely loss in popular vote with help from the outside through hacking or election meddling?

Until the elections, he will get the opportunity to score some wins (the wall? USMCA? China?), but risks keep piling up (collateral loan obligations? China? House commissions? post-Mueller lawsuits? Jim Mattis?)...


On a more direct electoral front, Trump is facing a different Democratic field:
- the business-as-usual candidate isn't a clear leader anymore: Joe Biden's lagging too much behind Hillary Clinton in too many ways, except maybe in his miserable skills as a presidential candidate.
- the natural liberal candidate of 2016 seems to be at long last claiming the spot she abandoned to Sanders because Hillary decided to run again: Elizabeth Warren is an energizing candidate, and embodies change much more convincingly than Bernie, who in contrast looks like an old don Quixote great at barking at windmills, but unable to get them produce anything. Sanders still has the power to crash the party if he chooses to linger once more.
- Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg seem to settle for Veep positions, but a lot can happen until IA-NH. Warren-Buttigieg? Biden-Harris? Warren-Harris could kick some serious ass.

One good news for the Democrats: if defeating Trump remains the common goal, his impeachment is now on a dedicated track, and key issues look much better separated and visible. The POTUS doesn't need anyone to draw spotlights on immigration or climate change (great idea, to invite fellow G7 members to watch Hurricane Doral from the front seat next Summer), but Mitch McConnell has at last become a prime target on issues as critical as gun control or SCOTUS nominations (mass shooting or Ruth Bader Ginsburg health scares unfortunately coming as recurring reminders). 

It is essential to target the Trump-McConnell duo, because winning doesn't stop at the White House. You need to reclaim the Senate, and to restore some dignity there as well.


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Politically Correct as in Post-Clinton

Donna Brazile's revelations* didn't come as a surprise. Everybody knew that the Clintons sank the party they helped reform a quarter of a century earlier. Well we knew for the political part, but the financial dimension is so much engrained in their fabric that this latest scandal makes perfect sense.

I don't feel sorry for Bernie Sanders, who would have lost anyway, but for a country that should never have lost its most vital institutions to its worst enemies.

I'm glad this comes out now. Not as a distraction to the Russia probe, but to silence Hillary, who hijacked the conversation thanks to her book tour, poisoning minds with the notion that the DNC remains totally under her spell. 

We badly need different voices. Obama yes, but only on rare occasions, and on essential issues. We don't need grandparents in the Pelosi - Biden - Sanders variety (if they're over 65, make them fun listening to, like Liz Warren or Al Franken - what a 2020 ticket!). We need fresh, new voices, like Kamala Harris, Chris Murphy, or better Deval Patrick, should he return to politics. And the Democratic Party must totally reform itself. Otherwise, the Barry Sanderses, Oprah Winfreys, or Mark Zuckerbergs will dance on its grave.

Can Al Franken draw the US electoral map as well?

Of course, same goes for Republicans, who must step into the post-Trump era before DJT destroys what's left of it. For the moment, the GOP's soul relies on a 81 year-old with brain cancer (John McCain), two senators on the way out (Jeff Flake with a better potential than filpflop Bob Corker), and the one cool guy who could change it all, Ben Sasse.


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* "Inside Hillary Clinton’s Secret Takeover of the DNC" - Politico 20171102 exceprts from her book

Alt Right Or Alt Trump?

Election Night 2016 turned out to be a dud, suspense-wise. And a 8,978 gigaton nuclear bomb otherwise.

Donald J. Trump will nominate at least the next two (sorry Ruth) Supreme Court Justices. Unless 45 pulls out another rubber mask and returns as Don Pro-Choice T. (which neither Mike Pence nor the GOP-controlled Congress would let happen), the US are bound to return to the Middle-Age on key human rights*. And maybe embrace durably the ultraconservative line, the way Israel did after the murder of Yitzhak Rabin.

The only good news of today is the hope that, at long last, the Clinton Dynasty will stop ruling the Democratic Party. We saw how Joe Biden's familial tragedy combined with Elizabeth Warren's reluctance to run against Hillary allowed a new figure to ride the Need For Change + Anything But Hillary waves, and her weaknesses to sink deeper into everybody's minds acrosss the aisle. Had Bernie Sanders won the primaries, Michael Bloomberg would have probably decided to run, and won the elections. Maybe also made a decent POTUS.

Even with Sanders and Warren on board, even with the full support of Barack and Michelle Obama at the peak of their popularity and motivation, even with a superiority in the ground and online games, Clinton couldn't carry the positive side of the force. Abandoning the rustbeltiest parts of the Democratic firewall didn't help against The Donald's one-man-show.

Nationwide, state by state, county by county... the scale of Trump's victory is scary. Way scarier and deeper than W's 2004, which Obama managed to gracefully compensate.

If Trump delivered the acceptance speech he was expected to give, he remains a dangerous, loose canon surrounded by such bad hombres as Breitbart's Steve Bannon.

And we still don't know how far the interests of people like Vladimir Putin have been pushed at the core of the world's supposedly model democracy.

Now that the Alt Right and the KKK are celebrating a victory they claim as theirs, the future of America lies in moderate Republican lawmakers. And in a new and truly uniting figure to reach for them from the Democrats' ruins.

Trump claims electoral and popular vote, the House and Senate, the Supreme Court, and a seat for Putin's SOTU address (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796265430914473985)
BREAKING - Hillary Clinton just gave a concession call to Putin (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796257288197545985)
Will Obama hand the nuclear and @POTUS twitter codes to Trump? (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796255962143174656)

The new POTUS has big hands... and his name is Putin (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796242317216595968)

BREAKING: USA legalizes recreational votes - #RIPUSDemocracy (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796235476990496768)
The only good news today: DNC is freed from Clinton rule - Hopefully (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796235045161734144)
Duterte, Shinzo Abe, Donald Trump - When democracy votes against democracy (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796232108758863872)

Why did Hillary Clinton run in the first place? (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796194014072422400)
USA pulls a Brexit. Donald Trump will nominate at least the next 2 Supreme Court judges. Democracy loses - NB Jake Tapper concedes to Trump (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796193850842705921)
Key projection: CNN dream team to keep their lock on Election Night (Wolf Blitzer, Jake Tapper, Dana Bash, John King) (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/796157101730955266)

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* we have yet to grasp the full extent of the damage already done down the ballot (e.g. death penalty restored in NE)

New York in the bag

The "New York" songs played ahead of tonight's victory speeches? A cunning old mobster for Donald Trump (Frank Sinatra), a smart young African American for Hillary Clinton (Alicia Keys). 

Both winners seemed sincerely relieved, Hillary Why-So-Tense Clinton looking even, all of a sudden, twenty years younger:

HRC and family keep fighting for U$

Her victory was so clear that it turned the 125,000 voters rejected at the Democratic primary into an epiphenomenon (still, she probably wouldn't have won by such a landslide had all unregistered Democrats been allowed).

The Donald didn't look younger than last week. He even seems to be shedding hair and gaining weight during this campaign. But he won in spite of his closest allies: his own kids couldn't vote because they didn't register, and Ben Carson's name remained on the ballot - Doc claimed more votes than Ted Cruz in parts of Westchester County (they wouldn't appear in the official, final count):

Yet the most defining moments of the campaign were John Kasich eating his way to a victory in Manhattan, and Bernie Sanders having his 'Ich bin ein New Yorker' moment on Washington Square.

Bernie's not out yet, he's gone as far as his candidacy allowed him to go*.

And Ted Cruzed far further than I thought: I believed that he kicked himself out of the race as soon as he entered it (see "2016 - Recyclable Expendables"), but this 2016 GOP is nuttier than ever.

Yet the Dems have their own blend of unexpected uniter in Elizabeth Warren, who could receive a call from Hillary long before 3 A.M.

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* see "ABH Corpus" (May 2015): By submitting his candidacy first after Hillary on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders claimed at least 3 obvious categories : "ABH" (Anyone But Hillary), "EWE" (Elizabeth Warren Erzatz - Sanders reaches even further to the left, pitching himself as a 'socialist'), and "OFGWAB" (that perennial candidacy type I dubbed "Old Farts Going With A Bang").

GOP Implosion (continued)

After 2004, 2008, and 2012*, I have to post a blogule about the implosion of The Republican Party on an election year. This time, I come after all mainstream media, who've been paying more attention since Donald Trump pushed the tragicomedy to new levels.

Each election cycle adds a nuttier flavor of the month to the old Paleocon-Theocon fault line highlighted by the election** of George W. Bush in 2004: first came the Neocons, then Tea Party ayatollahs, and now Donald Trump is single-(short)handedly shifting the rift below the (Bible) Belt.

As I wrote before, the GOP is a bit like France's Socialist Party: it refuses to reform itself, and to dump for good its most radical elements, but keeps winning every now and then, which only further delays reforms demanded by this millenium.

Decent leaders fail to emerge. We even saw John McCain sell his soul to creationists and theocons to win the primaries, and Chris Christie, after proving he could be a bully (see "a bridge to you know where"), turning into a shameless political whore by endorsing Mr. T moments after quitting the race. Even Mitt women-in-binders Romney sounds decent compared to what we have now.

Marco Rubio failed to seize a once in a lifetime opportunity against a dangerous fascist (Trump), a dangerous theocrat (Ted Cruz), and a harmless paleocon (John Kasich). Jeb Bush*** wouldn't help him save Florida, where Hurricane Donald seems about to touch down.

I truly believed Mike Bloomberg would go for it, but he joebidened out of the race before even starting it.

Will the GOP chose its soul over victory, and moderates lead a revolution at the RNC? Should Trump be confirmed, whom will he face? Hillary Clinton seems as good at screwing up campaigns as Republicans are bad at cleaning up their own mess, and Michigan landed on Bernie Sanders' lap. I'm not sure America would prefer a self proclaimed socialist to a fascist.

This party and this World deserves better leaders.

USA must chose between her own soul and Donald Trump (a Mussolini wannabe endorsed by the KKK and  Jean-Marie Le Pen**** (20160304 twitter.com/stephanemot/status/705509307673083904)

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* ICYMI "Grand Old Parting: fix your party before causing more damage to your country" (2012), "GOP : Time to Split" (2008), "Red Blogule to the Bush system - Prevent a New War of Secession" (2004)

** as usual I don't say "reelected", since W was handed the job by Jeb in 2000 (btw Florida's likely to play a key role this year as well).

*** as pathetic as expected  ("Jeb? A World Leader? Not kidding anyone anymore")

**** Jean-Marie Le Pen was bound to support Trump, they look and think like twins (see "Trump Parliament")

Jeb? A World Leader? Not kidding anyone anymore

After CNBC's controversial show, the GOP now leads Dems 3-1 in presidential debates.

This time, Jeb Bush seems to have lost big time, and against his most direct rival Marco Rubio, who confirmed in an almost 2008-No-Drama-Obama fashion that he was a top contender for next year.

Even Chris Christie had a slice of Jeb for breakfast, leaving the Bush Campaign in a fantasy league of its own. I couldn't help but imagine Dubya's brother in a decisive meeting at the White House. He'd be wolfed down by any of his advisers, and he told us himself that they would be the same guys who advised W... America doesn't need this kind of "Commandee in Chief".

The usual clowns (Stan Carson and Laurel Trump) left the stage to Carly Fiorina, who didn't make much of all that airtime. Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee cracked good ones and the audience, and at this pace, Trump won't even have to complain about the presence of Rand Paul or John Kasich at each corner of the stage, come November 10 and the 4th debate in Milwaukee Theatre.

Four days before, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley will have met for a quiet chat in Rock Hill, SC. Without Lincoln Chaffee and Jim Webb, who excused themselves, and without Joe Biden, who understood after the First Democratic Debate that Hillary wouldn't crash that early. She even won the first GOP-Dem debate at Capitol Hill for the Benghazi hearings.

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Hillary not likable enough?

HRC is obviously trying to roll the clock back to early 2008, when she found her voice by shedding a tear. But this time again, it seems too late in the game, and not that sincere.

As announced (see "ABH Corpus"), Bernie Sanders is enjoying the time of his life at the helm of the Anyone But Hillary movement, all other Dem candidates failing miserably in the polls. The question is not which bubble will burst first between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, but if someone will show up to save the RNC.

Joe Biden is the most likely - and likable, that's important too - candidate, and Monmouth University polls clearly show a Joementum (see below), but does he want to race, and can his scores remain that stellar if he officially kills Clinton?

Monmouth University September polls ("National: Clinton lead shrinks - While non-candidate Biden makes gains")

For the moment, Hillary doesn't seem able to reload her campaign, to bring freshness to it. That's what Veep Picks are for, but her main hurdle is the primaries, and the early ones at that. Hell, she can't even afford waiting for IA and NH; she must pull out something by the end of this year, or else...

If the core Dem dilemma is about character, what to say of the GOP side? Ahead of the second debate, 3 non-politicians steal the show (Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina), but the not likable enough Jeb Bush stays in the race, and Mike Huckabee has thrown a Hail Mary Pass on the Kim Davis case (if the Kentucky clerk ever gets sanctified, that will be for surviving a quartering act between the Fox News host from Hope, AR and Ted Cruz).

To lead this GOP, the most rational choice seems to be Kim Jong-un:

BREAKING - Kim Jong-un declares war to Donald Trump (20150821 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/634558694936604672)

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GOP's Got Talent

Today, Jon Stewart left The Daily Show to join the Academy Award trail - fare well Maestro!

A dozen people embracing Jon Stewart in a big hug, what a contrast with the GOP Debate podium!

Now Fox News can claim the top spot for political entertainment and not fully thought through opinions. 

Today, no fewer that 10 top stand-up comedians took the stage for the first GOP Debate, and we're not even counting the minor candidates, who enjoyed their own open mic hours before!

America's Got Talent: today, 10 funniest stand-up comedy talents on GOP Debate (tough competition for Donald Trump) (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629481901875556352)

Here's how the 10 (+1) fared:

• 2 over-performed:

As often in the case, the winners are underdogs: Carly Fiorina confirmed her potential as the perfect running mate, and John Kasich was, to put it simply, in the zone - his comfort zone (as long as this guy can repeat his same 'I did that' speech he's okay, but he'll be in trouble once the field's cleared up and he's given more time to talk about other issues).

• 1 lost big:

Not only did Rand Paul sink, but to add insult to injury, Trump was the one who delivered the death blow.

• 1 won the Democratic debate:

Chris Christie played the full orchestra: compassionate, conservative, patriot act hawkish, Obama hugger, no-nonsense tea partier hunter, good cop and bad cop, Hulk and Baloo.

• 3 did exactly what was expected from them:

Jeb Bush by keeping low profile, staying below radar surface, and even ending with the dullest closing words. So he didn't win today's debate, but the aim was not to lose it, so mission accomplished magna cum boredom. 

Donald Trump by roaring outrageous Trumpisms that would terminate all hopes for any normal candidate, but will keep him in the race for a while. Chris Wallace and his Fox News pals tried their best to expose his ugliest sides and his lack of knowledge on key issues, but Donald Excuse Me Trump proudly owned up to every single monstrosity he ever said or did.

Marco Rubio by playing his charmingly hollow, perfect son in law self: my parents did all the tough parts, including my face, but I learned how to smile all by myself, so I'm qualified for the job.

• 4 performed so-so:

Sorry but I still can't take Scott Walker seriously. He may be one of the least worst in the pack, each time he speaks I see Steve Carell.

Ted Cruz was, is, will be a loser.

Ben Carson is not a jaded politician and it shows. The unnatural way he waves his arms, how his eyes keep returning to his notes / screen... Regardless of what he says you can't trust a leader who doesn't trust himself.

I was about to face-palm when Mike Huckabee started his wrap-up (he's not going to denigrate Trump when he's supposed to finish on a positive me-note?!?), when he pulled his Hillary Clinton joke. Got me, but didn't seize the day.

BTW: now please give me a good Hillary Clinton - Bernie Sanders fight.

Rick Perry jabs at Donald Trump in absentia at Minor League debate. Huckabee to do the same in the main Nuthouse That GOP Built (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629454011456884736)

GOP Debate starts with individual Q&A. Here, Chris Christie on how he slimmed down (the NJ budget, not his own weight) (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629463191509045248)

Robin Williams still alive, Steve Carell still making a fool of himself (Ted Cruz and Scott Walker at GOP Debate) (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629467865557504001)

Ben Carson body language: what am I doing here?
Certainly no Commander in Chief material (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629468580174639104)

Donald Trump at Rand Paul with the grace of a buldozer: "you're having a bad night" - actually "you're having a bad time today" (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629469326622478336)

Donald Trump proud of milking the system he pledges to change, of making money at other peoples expense. Surreal GOP Debate (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629475624281706496)

Donald Trump in Atlantic City: I took the money and ran.
Christ Christie in NJ: I restored the budget, now I can run for Prez.
GOP Debate (twitter.com/stephanemot/status/629477659890749440)

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ABH Corpus

Even if many heavyweights are taking their time, the 2016 race is considerably more crowded than when Ted Cruz launched / torpedoed his own campaign (see "2016 - Recyclable Expendables").

By submitting his candidacy first after Hillary on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders claimed at least 3 obvious categories : "ABH" (Anyone But Hillary), "EWE" (Elizabeth Warren Erzatz - Sanders reaches even further to the left, pitching himself as a 'socialist'), and "OFGWAB" (that perennial candidacy type I dubbed "Old Farts Going With A Bang"). If both Jim Webb and Martin O'Malley show up (not to mention Lincoln Chafee), they have little chance to last long in the primaries.

On the Republican side, serious contenders don't want to appear as anonymous members of the tadpole pack. So Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Scott Walker keep waiting (Lindsey Graham could also be a serious contender - but like, two centuries ago?). Among declared candidates, neither Rand Paul nor Mike Huckabee seem to have enjoyed any form of momentum. Marco Rubio made a pretty good start (only tripping a bit during Shinzo Abe's visit - see his flip-flop in ""History is harsh" and other sick jokes"), but Jeb has the capacity to financially suck his campaign dry. Still, Bush The Third must beware not to leave Marco get too much time and space to shine. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina have, as expected, bought their lottery tickets for a Veep slot. Will Jindal join them? Will Perry further embarrass himself? Will Santorum run again, or simply wait for a theocon V.P. call?

And does Barack Obama consider running again, this time under the GOP flag? Some arctic drilling after an ultra-SIG-friendly TPP, anyone? I don't know if Michelle will ever run for the office, but I can't wait to discover the top sponsors of his Obama Foundation...

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