Thank you, Bibi, for shooting yourself in the foot

A great classic, the pounding of Gaza on a US election year*. But this time, Benjamin Netanyahu went too far too early, losing critical support at a critical moment.

Of course he didn't get rid of Hamas, because that's not what he wants, remember? Radicals need radicals at their doorsteps to play ping pong and justify their own stronghold. The idea was to surf on the ISIS panic wave, to weaken key entry/exit points for awhile, and by fueling fear in Israel and hatred in Palestine, to comfort both governments (the Hamas, Bibi) as the only ones legitimate to defend the land against bad guys (Bibi, the Hamas).

The problem is that US elections haven't really started, and that these are mid-term elections, not presidential ones. Big guns were not compelled to publicly pledge allegiance during the conflict. Worse: more candidates might seize the opportunity to emancipate themselves from a declining, hawkish AIPAC, and to support Israel via J Street**, which represents the moderate views of a growing majority of US Jews, and a much more sustainable path to peace.

If Bibi doesn't care about international outrage, he cares about support from the US. And because he went too far, at long last, the US internal political debate about Israel has suddenly become mainstream. Most recently and notably - and significantly location / media-wise:
- The Times refusing to publish a diatribe by Elie Wiesel comparing the Hamas to Nazis
- the ad run in The New York Times where 327 survivors of the Holocaust denounce "the massacre of Palestinians in Gaza" and calling for a complete boycott of Israel
- articles condemning the AIPAC, such as the recent "Friends of Israel" by Connie Bruck in The New Yorker

Now that bad guys are exposed on both sides, it's OK to publicly challenge the AIPAC and to mention J Street. It's soon going to be not only OK, but totally P.C. to support Israel by criticizing its government.

Yes, Barack Obama needs a strategy against ISIS, but showing progress between Israel and Palestine would send very strong messages across the World. The US can truly help Israel. If John F. Kerry can't do much, mainstream American moderates have the power to help moderates become mainstream in Israel.

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* e.g. "Deja vu all over again", "Israel accepted as true the choice between its security and its ideals"
** more than ever, "J Street : It's Time"!

After Arafat, will Tel Aviv hawks terminate Mahmoud Abbas ?

Abandoned by the US, humiliated by Netanyahu, crippled by his own behavior during the destruction of Gaza, Mahmoud Abbas announced that he had "no desire to run in the forthcoming election".

The parallel with Yasser Arafat is clear, and Tel Aviv hawks used the same strategy. The main disapointment for "Abu Mazen" came from Obama, unable to deliver the goods and to prevent Israel from pushing its radical agenda (see "Israel accepted as true the choice between its security and its ideals").

Yet, it's not as if Abbas said he wouldn't run in 2010. There's still a chance, a thurst for "desire". But the message his clear : my "authority" is a farce, only Israel and the US can decide the future of Palestine. They were the ones who put the Hamas where it is, and the Fatah in this terrible shape. My failure is their failure, and I'm afraid the US will keep washing their hands on my martyrdom until I die.

Before this speech, Abbas didn't stand one chance to win in 2010. Now, he is provoking change : status quo or any further delaying from Washington would be be as lethal as if Hillary and Barack themselves hammered down the nails.

He's not as much saying "I quit" as asking "hey Barack, do you want our blood on your hands ?"

If Israeli moderates want to speak up, now is the time. J Street is gaining ground in Washington, the UN is pressuring for a follow up to Goldstone's report, and there is still room for peace. Palestinians need real, tangible hope. If Hamas wins, Netanyahu wins, Israel loses.

blogules 2009

Israel accepted as true the choice between its security and its ideals

Ahead of a September 29 presentation to the United Nations Human Rights Council, the United Nations' Fact Finding Mission on the Gaza Conflict released its key conclusions.

Unsurprisingly, both Hamas and Israel have been proven guilty of war crimes in a report covering 36 "incidents".

Between December 2008 and January 2009 or, as I pointed out (see "A Christmas Gift for Fundamentalists ?"), during the no-top-man's land between Obama's election and his formal inauguration, 13 Israeli and more than 1,400 Palestinians died.

Against Palestinian terrorists, the reports pointed out indiscriminate bombings, but found no evidence of "human shields", bringing even more pressure on Tel Aviv hawks who get most of the blame : disproportionate actions, collective punishment, use of illegal weapons (white phosphorus shells)...

Worse : this is the consequence of wrongdoings by a few rogue soldiers, but "the result of deliberate guidance issued to soldiers", or as Richard Goldstone put it, "policies". I suggested another word for that in "Israel openly embraces fascism". The report went as far as mentioning "crimes against humanity".

The mission wants the United Nations Security Council to investigate further and to consider bringing charges to the International Criminal Court. If the US don't put a veto on it, it may fly, but up to a certain point : the ICC's jurisdiction is not accepted by Israel.

Israeli hawks denounce an unfair and biased mission and as a matter of fact, Christine Chinkin, a member of the commission, accused Israel of war crimes in an op-ed published last January.

But blaming the thermometer doesn't cure the flu.

And even after the embarrassing revelations on a prominent Israeli human rights activist*, Israeli moderates are more than ever welcome to speak up and loud against their unruly rulers.


blogules 2009


* Human Rights Watch's Marc Garlasco happens to collect Nazi memorabilia !

If Americans knew

It's easy to twist figures or maps, but they simply can't lie when unfairness is so obvious.

Founded by journalist Alison Weir, If Americans Knew (ifamericansknew.org) is one of many trying to fill the gaps, but this site targets the American audience and that's an essential step towards peace in the Middle East.

Fair pedagogy is crucial, and the American audience must hear Palestinian voices as well as Israeli voices. Right now, that's not the case : US media tend to take the Israeli side even when Israeli leaders err on the wrong side of the road

Traditionally, Americans are not well informed of what's going on overseas in general. And too often, they can only see one side of the coin. It's not only a matter of networks being biased, but also of viewers with a short attention span for things not American.

Yet change seems to be coming with new voices (Obama, J Street...), and the internet. In spite of the Israeli blackout (foreign media were blocked outside of the strip), all major channels had to somehow mention things happening in Gaza because these things were all over the web, because that was the "story" to "tell".

What Americans have been told for decades is that Palestinians are terrorists and Israeli under siege. What the world is realizing is that terror has changed sides, that Palestine is under siege, and that if hatemongers are gaining ground in Gaza, it's mainly because hatemongers are winning in Tel Aviv.

BTW, excellent and timely report from the Red Cross today.

blogules 2009

Beyond the Iranian people, Obama is addressing Israel

NYT's Ethan Bronner is not exactly holding fire against Israel these days, and he shouldn't : investigations are proving how essential principles were deliberately abandoned during the recent invasion of the Gaza strip.

Bronner also pointed out* the obvious fact that Israel cannot stick to its darkest sides (racism, fascism, which are not a Avigdor Lieberman monopoly these days), particularily if moderates gain ground in Iran on June 12, 2009.

As a Nowruz celebration, Citizen Obama decided to cast a video ballot for the upcoming presidential elections.

The Iranian people discovered a POTUS talking directly to them with words of mutual respect, a humble admiration for the great Persian culture, and a genuine spark of intelligence and compassion in the eyes. Barack even cautioned the Islamic Republic of Iran label, tearing down a 30 year old wall between both nations.

Reaching out without touching faith, Obama's speech was actually putting as much pressure on Israel as on Iran.

Livni and Netanyahu had better come up with something fit for this new millenium.


* see "After Gaza, Israel Grapples With Crisis of Isolation" (NY Times - 20090318)

PS: Obama sent an even more direct message to Bush when he wrote to Chirac.

Happy new year 2010

Sorry, but I want to forget 2009 :

January - Tel Aviv hawks perfectly used the window of opportunity before Obama's inauguration, igniting a 3rd intifada and an attack from Hezbullah. The Likud is disbanded (too far left) and on February the 10th, Yigal Amir's National Nationalist Party wins in a landslide. All Israelis of Palestinian origin lose their citizenship and their rights to the Geneva Convention but as a compensation, receive a one-way ticket to the Gaza Ghetto. Moderate Jews are considering a secession and by April, medias start talking about a civil war.

February - in order to celebrate Darwin's bicentennary, Sarah Palin burns the Library of Congress and a few science museums to the ground : "Them scientists have been lying to us for too long, and this fake Santa deserves to fry. Burn'em all ! And let's check if they taste like monkeys ! If we descend from the apes, how come I'm dumber than a moose ?"

March - Bernanke is arrested for a massive pizza scheme : he traded all the Federal Reserves with anchovies and pepperoni. China saves the US from bankruptcy but the country has a new currency : the Western Yuan. A Big Mac costs about two redbacks.

April - Gordon Brown choses the 60th anniversary of the Republic of Ireland to become the new King of Scotland. And 20 years after Tiananmen, the Politburo proposes a new deal to the Chinese People : "a slower growth but even less freedom". Wu Jintao is ousted within one day, and Wen Jiabao becomes the new Leader of the Cultual Revolution. By the end of his first 5 year plan, he should become the next Dalai Lama.

May - Alberto Gonzales escapes prison and manages to fly to North Korea where he becomes Honorary Chairman of the Waterboard.

June - Europe votes : 75% abstention and 95% NO. NB: it wasn't even for a referendum but to elect members of the Parliament...

July - No fireworks on the 4th. Need more ammos for Afghanistan, Iraq, Georgia and Estonia.

August - A new Putin blitz : invades Vatican the 5th, becomes Pope the 6th, canonizes Stalin the 7th.

September - Black Thursday the 24th. Quotation suspended for the S&P500. As of today, it's still uncertain whether it will become the SubStandard & Poorer 300 or 200. The latter wording has the favor of people who want to be at least once ahead of the market.

October - The corpse of Francis Bacon, 100, paints a vivid portrait of Hank Paulson screaming on the electric chair.

November - George W. Bush collapses at the end of a gigamass in his honor. The autopsy shows he choked on the Eucharistic bread. Human right activists who wanted him to share Dick Cheney's cell find it hard to swallow.

December - The Nobel Peace Prize goes to Robert Mugabe for his role in the reconciliation between the ANC and COPE. He also gets the Nobel Prize in Medicine for his eradication of AIDS and all other human diseases in Zimbabwe (no more Zimbabwean alive to celebrate at home).

A Christmas Gift for Fundamentalists ?

Tel Aviv hawks delivered Gaza to the Hamas because they needed this convenient evil at their doorsteps (see "Palestine : the Pakistan-Bangladesh scenario").

They are about to lose their main supporter in Washington, but they are determined to make the most of the last few weeks before Obama's Inauguration.

Hopefully, they won't offer Fundamentalist in Chief Bush his most coveted dream of a full throttle war with Iran (see "Iran who wants war and why"). Nonetheless, they'll do their best to secure victory for one of their own in the February 10 national elections, and a massive operation on Gaza is gaining ground.

Fellow lame duck Ehud Olmert showed a few remorses months ago regarding the way Palestinians were treated, and Livni's recent visit to Mubarak was an interesting development... but Netanyahu and the Likud want diplomacy and Kadima to fail, and you can count on them to pour oil on the flames.

The Hamas cannot afford losing either. And they do know how to go with a bang...

Anyway, the calendar definitely looks grim for moderates, be they Israeli or Palestinian... and the window of opportunity perfect for fundamentalists, be they Jewish, Muslim or Christian.

Palestine : the Pakistan-Bangladesh scenario

Ehud Olmert and his fellow hawks eventually succeeded in putting the Gaza Ghetto in the hands of the most radical elements of Hamas. All they needed was to inflict years of humiliation, to illegally abduct key moderate leaders, and to carpet bomb any attempt of conciliation.

Back in January 2006*, I envisioned a Pakistan - Bangladesh scenario for the Gaza Strip - West Bank couple, with radical islamists ruling over the former and unharmful people struggling to survive in the latter. Among the key differences : the Bengali suffer from abundance of water.

The time has almost come.

Israeli hardliners can measure the success of their strategy, and the crucial** help of a fellow fundamentalist named George W. Bush. They didn't need Dubya to get rid of Yitzhak Rabin, but they badly needed his support to crush the peace process initiated with Bill Clinton.

As usual, Shimon Peres keeps the glam (Nobel Prize, presidence) and avoids direct combat in favor of peace. Ehud Barak joins the government with the label of a member of opposition, but the new Defense Minister is a renowned expert in camouflage as a cross dresser who paved the way for Sharon by sabotaging the 2000 Summit in Camp David, putting the first nails on Arafat's coffin.

Now I don't see how moderates can win elections in Israel, how violence can be prevented from spreading. Fundamentalists have won in Palestine, in Israel, in the USA and in the Muslim world. Warmongers are gaining momentum and the only way to stop this madness would be to give a strong signal against the Commander in Thief.

Impeach Bush-Cheney.

PS : don't bet on strong critics on Israel by US prez candidates before November 2008




* see "Red blogule to Ehud Olmert - the Bangladesh scenario" (20060125)
** no pun intended, Mel

Red blogule to Ehud Olmert - the Bangladesh scenario

Olmert shares Sharon's vision of a Great Israel that takes into account the demographic factor : Israel cannot remain a Jewish state if it doesn't give a piece of land back to the Palestinians*. Since Sharon didn't want to give much land, he needed to pile up as many Palestinians in as small a space as possible, even if this meant a total redifinition of borders... a tradition for this bold warrior used to touring neighbouring countries driving his tank the foot to the metal and both hands to the gun (same for political borders : creating Kadima was maybe Sharon's smartest move ever).
Olmert speaks to both the Likud and Hamas radicals : no one can win it all and both parties have to give up part of their dreams. But it sounds as if the Israeli sacrifice is over (past tense) while the Palestinian's still has to start somewhen in the future (more tensions ahead)**.
What theses semi-harliners dream of is a not so Eretz Israel and a political failure in Gaza so that they won't have to liberate much more land. Not only do they want to keep Jerusalem all for themselves : they expect a "Bangladesh scenario". Parted from India, Pakistan couldn't survive as two seperate parts of land. The radicals concentrated in the Western Part while the weaker ones remained in an innofensive bayou miles apart.
Sharon followers may get what they want : an independant undersized West Bank turned into some kind of a Bangladesh too concerned with its own survival to be dangerous. They may also get what they fear : a Gaza strip turned into a bellicist Pakistan and a fundamentalists' hub.


* (even if the word "back" never appears) "The choice between allowing Jews to live in all parts of the land of Israel, and living in a state with a Jewish majority, mandates giving up parts of the Land of Israel (...) We will not be able to continue ruling over the territories in which the majority of the Palestinian population lives."
** "The Palestinians will have to give up part of their national dreams, just as we have given up some of our national dreams".

White blogule to the Law Lords - find another al-Libi, Dubya

Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi, the Lybian detainee who confessed in 2002 a link between al Qaeda and Iraq, did it under torture but in an Egyptian jail (back then, the C.I.A. would still outsource this nasty business).
In London, the Law Lords just ruled that evidence obtained under torture (even on a foreign soil) could not be used in British courts.
The US have used the "foreign soil" loophole since the Cold War and torture has been banned since 1640 in England.
Talking about cold wars and smoking guns... Amerika's Real Estate Agent Condi Rice just clinched a deal with Romania where 4 US military bases will be installed. This former Soviet satellite enjoys a view on the European Gulf (the Black Sea ? an epitome of the Bush doctrine : a major oil and gas hub and an environmental nightmare), locates in Europe but not yet in the EU (perfect timing as far as the European agenda is concerned), and happens to be neither too close from the Middle East (the Gaza Tigers can draft Roger Clemens, their stones will never reach the Constanta shores), nor too far (when the boys are withdrawn, their toys will remain nearby). Of course, today's EU members won't budge and The Company Airlines gets all the time slots they need.

White blogule to new signs o' new times

Stunning. Sharon's face as he was listening to his rival's speech. Lost, his own fat self sitting alone, without the ability to communicate thanks to a spectacular sabotage from members of his own party... Let him grow some beard and wear the kaffiyeh and you've got the spitting image of his longtime ennemy Yassir Arafat.
So the old man wrote down his vision for his Likud peers : we had to give up Gaza, you can't cheat demography. And this time, he wasn't the one to ignite the violence in the strip : "harderliners" would drop the bomb from his very right, which proves wider by the day.
Yet, Netanyahu was supposed to win but didn't. Ditto Donald Tusk and Angela Merkel. Le Petit Nicolas Sarkozy should be careful : times they are a-changin for US neocons' faves. The world needs reforms but the people craves for moderate leaders.
Besides, everywhere, fundamentalists and extremists confirm their strong footprints but cannot rule on their own. Radical stances losing ground, they're using less subtle ways to win over democracy : their words proving empty, they just eliminate moderate voices. Bringing fear pays in the short term but not in the long one.
This is certainly not a U-turn (and shouldn't be) but for the first time in 4 years, being the toughest one doesn't pay.

Red blogule to deniers

Dubya doesn't mind Karl taking a leak.
Tony doesn't see any link whatsoever between Iraq and 7/7.
Ariel doesn't understand how his Gaza trick could terminate the peace process.
The fact is Rove deliberately crossed the line.
The fact is Blair deliberately betrayed his fellow citizens.
The fact is Sharon deliberately sticks to his usual hardline : he turned the Gaza strip into an unmanageable ghetto, getting rid of it will unknot the demographic dilemma for Israeli radicals, and the inevitable failure of "independant Gaza" will end all talks about Cisjordania (not to mention Jerusalem).
The fact is no one can stop them as they keep insulting History.
Shame on terrorists, but furthermore shame on those who were supposed to eradicate terror.

Red blogule to the "Bush doctrine"

The big question nowadays is : was Bush right ? Is the man responsible for democracy's tidal wave in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, Kyrgyzstan...?
The answer is yes, the US did play a major role, but not the way they dreamed it.
Washington did invest in the opposition in former soviet republics, and keeps laying greenbacks over Iraq (even watering them with the blood of honorable marines and local citizens, but I'm not sure it will help them grow). But the US also made their point in revealing their own weaknesses : here is an allmighty warlord getting humiliated, losing face (faith ?), uniting the international community against this negation of respect. Bush even managed to pass for the bad boy while fighting Bin Laden and Saddam. This man did everything he could to crush the Palestinian side during his first mandate. And when his top aides dare say about Lebanon elections cannot be considered democratical when held in an occupied country, how do you think Iraqis should take it ?
The world knows well the US are not likely to repeat their Iraqi failure that soon, that their military forces are far too stretched to allow one more "shock & awe" mission right now. The world knows the US are no more the center of the world, the only economical superpower. The world knows the US are weaker than ever.
But the world knows the world is watching. Not necessarily with enough strength to avoid the abuses of a Bush or a Putin, but with enough intensity to make it count.