Tel Aviv hawks delivered Gaza to the Hamas because they needed this convenient evil at their doorsteps (see "Palestine : the Pakistan-Bangladesh scenario").
They are about to lose their main supporter in Washington, but they are determined to make the most of the last few weeks before Obama's Inauguration.
Hopefully, they won't offer Fundamentalist in Chief Bush his most coveted dream of a full throttle war with Iran (see "Iran who wants war and why"). Nonetheless, they'll do their best to secure victory for one of their own in the February 10 national elections, and a massive operation on Gaza is gaining ground.
Fellow lame duck Ehud Olmert showed a few remorses months ago regarding the way Palestinians were treated, and Livni's recent visit to Mubarak was an interesting development... but Netanyahu and the Likud want diplomacy and Kadima to fail, and you can count on them to pour oil on the flames.
The Hamas cannot afford losing either. And they do know how to go with a bang...
Anyway, the calendar definitely looks grim for moderates, be they Israeli or Palestinian... and the window of opportunity perfect for fundamentalists, be they Jewish, Muslim or Christian.
Showing posts with label Kadima. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kadima. Show all posts
20080922
Taro Aso after Tzipi Livni and before... ?
Hardliners have become so mainstream in Israel that Tzipi Livni passes for a moderate in Tel Aviv. She succeeds Ehud Olmert, who decided to leave on a positive and almost dovish note (yes, I resign because I'm not a perfect man, but Israel didn't behave that well either). Yet, make no mistake : we'll get more of the same.
Ultranationalists have become so influent in Japan that they easily crowned Taro Aso as the "new" Prime Minister. He succeeds Yasuo Fukuda, whose fate was sealed last summer : after understanding that he couldn't run the country without the old Imperialist clique, Fukuda ignited a new controversy with former colony Korea, and he almost won the day when revisionist lobbyists had the Library of Congress change "Dokdo" for "Takeshima" or "Sea of Japan islands" in their labelling systems. But then George W. Bush and Lee Myung-bak went down on their knees, prayed, and put Dokdo back on the US maps*. With Taro Aso, both China and Korea know exactly what to expect from day one : more of the same.
The Israeli, Palestinian, and Japanese people didn't chose their "new" leaders : Kadima and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) decided for them.
Ditto in South Africa : the African National Congress (ANC) picked Kgalema Motlanthe as the interim "leader" between "found guilty of corruption" Thabo Mbeki (who also resigned) and "not found guilty of corruption" Jacob Zuma. When the 2010 World Cup starts, many South Africans may be wishing they'd had more of the same instead of Zuma.
George W. Bush won't resign. But if Americans let the GOP chose his successor, they should know what they will get...
* see "Korea on the Rocks Part II" (Seoul Village, following "Save Dokdo = save Japan! "), or "Le Japon décide de recoloniser Dokdo" (blogules VF)
Ultranationalists have become so influent in Japan that they easily crowned Taro Aso as the "new" Prime Minister. He succeeds Yasuo Fukuda, whose fate was sealed last summer : after understanding that he couldn't run the country without the old Imperialist clique, Fukuda ignited a new controversy with former colony Korea, and he almost won the day when revisionist lobbyists had the Library of Congress change "Dokdo" for "Takeshima" or "Sea of Japan islands" in their labelling systems. But then George W. Bush and Lee Myung-bak went down on their knees, prayed, and put Dokdo back on the US maps*. With Taro Aso, both China and Korea know exactly what to expect from day one : more of the same.
The Israeli, Palestinian, and Japanese people didn't chose their "new" leaders : Kadima and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) decided for them.
Ditto in South Africa : the African National Congress (ANC) picked Kgalema Motlanthe as the interim "leader" between "found guilty of corruption" Thabo Mbeki (who also resigned) and "not found guilty of corruption" Jacob Zuma. When the 2010 World Cup starts, many South Africans may be wishing they'd had more of the same instead of Zuma.
George W. Bush won't resign. But if Americans let the GOP chose his successor, they should know what they will get...
* see "Korea on the Rocks Part II" (Seoul Village, following "Save Dokdo = save Japan! "), or "Le Japon décide de recoloniser Dokdo" (blogules VF)
20060125
Red blogule to Ehud Olmert - the Bangladesh scenario
Olmert shares Sharon's vision of a Great Israel that takes into account the demographic factor : Israel cannot remain a Jewish state if it doesn't give a piece of land back to the Palestinians*. Since Sharon didn't want to give much land, he needed to pile up as many Palestinians in as small a space as possible, even if this meant a total redifinition of borders... a tradition for this bold warrior used to touring neighbouring countries driving his tank the foot to the metal and both hands to the gun (same for political borders : creating Kadima was maybe Sharon's smartest move ever).
Olmert speaks to both the Likud and Hamas radicals : no one can win it all and both parties have to give up part of their dreams. But it sounds as if the Israeli sacrifice is over (past tense) while the Palestinian's still has to start somewhen in the future (more tensions ahead)**.
What theses semi-harliners dream of is a not so Eretz Israel and a political failure in Gaza so that they won't have to liberate much more land. Not only do they want to keep Jerusalem all for themselves : they expect a "Bangladesh scenario". Parted from India, Pakistan couldn't survive as two seperate parts of land. The radicals concentrated in the Western Part while the weaker ones remained in an innofensive bayou miles apart.
Sharon followers may get what they want : an independant undersized West Bank turned into some kind of a Bangladesh too concerned with its own survival to be dangerous. They may also get what they fear : a Gaza strip turned into a bellicist Pakistan and a fundamentalists' hub.
* (even if the word "back" never appears) "The choice between allowing Jews to live in all parts of the land of Israel, and living in a state with a Jewish majority, mandates giving up parts of the Land of Israel (...) We will not be able to continue ruling over the territories in which the majority of the Palestinian population lives."
** "The Palestinians will have to give up part of their national dreams, just as we have given up some of our national dreams".
Olmert speaks to both the Likud and Hamas radicals : no one can win it all and both parties have to give up part of their dreams. But it sounds as if the Israeli sacrifice is over (past tense) while the Palestinian's still has to start somewhen in the future (more tensions ahead)**.
What theses semi-harliners dream of is a not so Eretz Israel and a political failure in Gaza so that they won't have to liberate much more land. Not only do they want to keep Jerusalem all for themselves : they expect a "Bangladesh scenario". Parted from India, Pakistan couldn't survive as two seperate parts of land. The radicals concentrated in the Western Part while the weaker ones remained in an innofensive bayou miles apart.
Sharon followers may get what they want : an independant undersized West Bank turned into some kind of a Bangladesh too concerned with its own survival to be dangerous. They may also get what they fear : a Gaza strip turned into a bellicist Pakistan and a fundamentalists' hub.
* (even if the word "back" never appears) "The choice between allowing Jews to live in all parts of the land of Israel, and living in a state with a Jewish majority, mandates giving up parts of the Land of Israel (...) We will not be able to continue ruling over the territories in which the majority of the Palestinian population lives."
** "The Palestinians will have to give up part of their national dreams, just as we have given up some of our national dreams".
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