20120214

Deja vu all over again

It never fails: election year in the US, fear feeding frenzy between ultraconservatives from DC, Tel Aviv, and Tehran.

This time, warmongers from all sides share a common target: Barack Obama. And clearly, "44" has more to fear from them than from Romney or Santorum. Among the usual suspects:

- Khamenei and Ahmadinejad clearly remember this guy who, as soon as he took over the White House, adressed the Iranian people for Nowruz*. The message got through, and if the regime crushed the first non-Palestinian uprising in the region, it lost for good whatever was left of its credibility at home**.

- Four years ago, Tel Aviv hawks perfectly seized the Bush-Obama transition, launching an infamous attack on Gaza to secure a crucial vote on February 2009, before putting out the fire with more gazoline***. With Netanyahu back, and all moderates eradicated from the national debate, these guys managed to survive the Arab Spring, deliberately playing it as a threat instead of embracing the opportunity. They are not likely to release the pressure now, and will give all the support the AIPAC needs to keep the upper hand over J Street in the vetting of candidates (beyond the White House, the Congress remains key).

- At home, Obama still has to cope with a minority of dangerous fanatics who badly want a war between Israel and Iran because it's supposed to bring back their Messiah****, but at least they don't control the Oval Office anymore. Of course, the usual Cassandra crew keeps lobbying and forging a case with smoking guns and nuclear mushrooms, but what they want is to secure fat budgets for defence contractors, not necessarily a real war. The people I fear most are the likes of Frank Carlucci, Donald Rumsfeld, or Paul Wolfowitz: amoral thugs who'd do anything to turn the tables, even if it means the humiliation of the United States of the loss of thousands of lives. Preferably when a Carter or an Obama is in office, but the trick also works when it comes to maintaining a friend in power (guess whom).

Okay. When boys start playing with a certain kind of toys and matches, things can go really bad, but they may not need to go all the way. A well timed second dip could sink Barack Obama more efficiently than a torpedo. And if you need a quick fix, ye ole oil crisis easy does it. Not very original, I know, but these guys are more often into creationism than into creativity.

One thing's for sure: we'll never run out of bad guys for this kind of show.


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*as well as Israeli leaders (
Beyond the Iranian people, Obama is addressing Israel)
**"
Khamenei's death wish"
***"
Bush's Farewell : Mission Accomplished... as Fundamentalist in Chief", "Netanyahu's al Aqsa intifada"
Iran : who wants war and why

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