Iron Lady (Ashes To Ashes, Rust To Rust), Meet Hugo Chavez

For people like me who grew up during the 1970s-1980s, Margaret Thatcher was an outstanding marker in politics: preceded and succeded by nobodies at home, she saw the USSR shift from Leonid Brezhnev to Michail Gorbachev, the USA shift from Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan (nevermind 41), the Germanies of Helmut Schmidt and Erich Honecker shift to Helmut Kohl's reunited Germany, France shift from Valery Giscard d'Estaing to Francois Mitterrand, the Vatican shift from Paul VI to John Paul II, South Korea shift from PARK Chung-hee to ROH Tae-woo, and North Korea shift from KIM Il-sung to KIM Il-sung. She even outruled by a few months her old friend Augusto Pinochet.

CNN's weird choice of a background picture to announce the passing of Margaret Thatcher: with the now infamous Jimmy Saville. Thaville and Satcher? Note that it could have been even worse for the Iron Lady: a picture of her with Ronald Reagan.

Margaret Thatcher embodied at the same time the United Kingdom and its very negation, always the present or the past, never the future. In many ways, she was a caricatural leader, sharing traits with statesmen she didn't share many ideas with.

So who resembles most Margaret Thatcher as a leader? Certainly not Angela Merkel or Julia Gillard, who've done little more than winning against Gerhard Schroeder and Kevin Rudd, and then benefiting from their reforms.

I'd rather look in the supposedly opposite direction. Why not Hugo Chavez? Both he and Thatcher revived a nation by stubbornly replacing obsolete ideologies with obsolete ideologies.

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Deja vu all over again

It never fails: election year in the US, fear feeding frenzy between ultraconservatives from DC, Tel Aviv, and Tehran.

This time, warmongers from all sides share a common target: Barack Obama. And clearly, "44" has more to fear from them than from Romney or Santorum. Among the usual suspects:

- Khamenei and Ahmadinejad clearly remember this guy who, as soon as he took over the White House, adressed the Iranian people for Nowruz*. The message got through, and if the regime crushed the first non-Palestinian uprising in the region, it lost for good whatever was left of its credibility at home**.

- Four years ago, Tel Aviv hawks perfectly seized the Bush-Obama transition, launching an infamous attack on Gaza to secure a crucial vote on February 2009, before putting out the fire with more gazoline***. With Netanyahu back, and all moderates eradicated from the national debate, these guys managed to survive the Arab Spring, deliberately playing it as a threat instead of embracing the opportunity. They are not likely to release the pressure now, and will give all the support the AIPAC needs to keep the upper hand over J Street in the vetting of candidates (beyond the White House, the Congress remains key).

- At home, Obama still has to cope with a minority of dangerous fanatics who badly want a war between Israel and Iran because it's supposed to bring back their Messiah****, but at least they don't control the Oval Office anymore. Of course, the usual Cassandra crew keeps lobbying and forging a case with smoking guns and nuclear mushrooms, but what they want is to secure fat budgets for defence contractors, not necessarily a real war. The people I fear most are the likes of Frank Carlucci, Donald Rumsfeld, or Paul Wolfowitz: amoral thugs who'd do anything to turn the tables, even if it means the humiliation of the United States of the loss of thousands of lives. Preferably when a Carter or an Obama is in office, but the trick also works when it comes to maintaining a friend in power (guess whom).

Okay. When boys start playing with a certain kind of toys and matches, things can go really bad, but they may not need to go all the way. A well timed second dip could sink Barack Obama more efficiently than a torpedo. And if you need a quick fix, ye ole oil crisis easy does it. Not very original, I know, but these guys are more often into creationism than into creativity.

One thing's for sure: we'll never run out of bad guys for this kind of show.


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Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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*as well as Israeli leaders (Beyond the Iranian people, Obama is addressing Israel)
**"Khamenei's death wish"
***"Bush's Farewell : Mission Accomplished... as Fundamentalist in Chief", "Netanyahu's al Aqsa intifada"
Iran : who wants war and why

Next Stop : Pakistan

They have fled Iraq for Afghanistan. For many, it was a way back to where it all started. Others learned their trade in Iraq, a giant terrorist training camp created by George W. Bush in his fundamentalist crusade in a country that really didn't need this kind of touristic resorts.

Now that a surge is on the way to Kabul and Southern Afghanistan, they are touring Pakistan beyond their usual Northern safe havens.

Pakistan is not safe, and the economical, social, and political situation worsened since last November, when I wrote these already gloomy lines (see "Lessons from Mumbai ?") : "The main target in the Mumbai attacks was Pakistan, the weaker link, and the democracy the most likely to fall for fundamentalism if the international community fails to help it help itself."

44 started using the same military quick fixes as 43/36* : air strikes as "surgical" as Israel's bombs on Lebanon or Gaza. But make no mistake : diplomacy is on its way. Not the naive, vintage dovish kind of diplomacy, but resolute and fair.

Diplomacy is on its way, and Barack's most lethal weapons are on their way : ahead of Hurricane Hillary, "diplomatic equivalent of a hydrogen bomb" AfPak envoy Richard Holbrooke met with Hamid Karzai... and The H. Bomb clearly avoided the kind of toasts Carter shared with Shah Reza Pahlavi over 30 years ago.

Last week, a local governor made an international show of a bonfire of puppy crops and illegal drugs seized in his region. A small step for Afghanistan, but a major leap out of the loop for ever the media magnet Karzai.

A surge on the ground, elections and potentially new faces at the helm of the country... change is probably coming to Afghanistan.

A Taliban surge, a catastrophic economic downturn, déjà vu short sighted legal and constitutional compromises with fundamentalists, radical factions fueling the seeds of civil war... change is surely coming to Pakistan.

President Obama must keep his eyes on the ball. Keeping in mind the fact that dancers are once again changing ballrooms.


* not Lyndon Baines Johnson but George Walker Bush : 43 has just been awarded the 36th position in the best POTUS contest. Dubya's behind Hoover but before Fillmore - the latter does have the name of a villain in a Harry Potter book, while W. enjoys the fame of Daddy Herbie (41 went up from #20 to #18).

Dismission Accomplished - Red blogule to the other peanut president

LBJ's quagmire, Nixon's scandals, Carter's hostages, not to mention Dubya's own trophies (lies, propaganda, fundamentalism, revisionism, torture...)... This President seems ripe for impeachment, and it's up to the Republicans to get rid of this bunch of Hall of Shamers (Cheney, Rove, Wolfie...). For good, and for the good of this country.
Besides, it would be the only way out of Iraq. And in the 2008 race. The Dems will keep shooting till someone waves a white flag : "why should I catch a bullet ? I should be shooting the darn lame duck along with you instead".
It would be an act of repentance from America too. I made a mistake in 2003, and then I made an even bigger mistake in November 2004. Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. Here's his head, shall I wrap it up ?
Here is the man. Ecce homo. George Walker Bush eventually meeting the same fate as his favorite philosopher. Atoning not for the sins of mankind but for the sins of one unkind man.

White blogule to impeachment

At last, someone like Carter dares demanding an end to the Guantanamo scandal and Amnesty International dares mentioning USA's network of legal-free but torture-laden prisons as a global gulag archipelago. Every day, the Bush Administration immorality makes the news and Clinton's Oral Offices performances sound relatively harmless compared to the deliberate use of propaganda and falsification (ie the recent NYT paper on the politically alteration of scientific reports on global warming by Philip Cooney, Mr Environment at the White House - yeah, I know it sounds weird but consider there ARE more than a couple of guys in charge of economy in the French government)...

Here is the closest thing to a dictator Amerika ever had, the biggest insult to the spirit of the US constitution, an almost farcical caricature of what a ruler shouldn't be. A notorious dodger, cheater and lyar. Unlike Nixon, Bush didn't have the other party's quarters taped, but he manipulated the total mediasphere of his country and people died for the wrong reasons.

Yet, no one ever mention impeachment.

What is wrong with the people of America ? What is wrong with the people of France ? What is wrong with democracy ?

White blogule to good intentions - Mind the gap

Strike the pose, George. You'll have your snapshot next to that of Jimmy & Anwar, or even better that of Billy, Yasser & Itzhak. All smiles at home, at your dear lil' White House on the prairie. After blocking all peace attempts for over 4 years and setting the World on fire... Luckily enough, you can put the blame on Arafat or even Powell for the failures of your first mandate. Not on you ("Make no mistake" is your middle name)... But tell you what : I'll even swallow my pride and endure your presence on that picture for posterity if you manage to make Palestine happen during your second mandate. Heck, even Russia celebrates Stalin for Yalta's 60th anniversary.
And you're also tackling that deficit issue now ? What a week ! Well... even divided by two this remains a huge deficit to be compared to the comfortable surplus you inherited. And you don't even take into account your little extras in Iraq. I'm sure a very efficient cut will be performed, but it's likely to be on your project by the very majority you got elected on that radical program of yours a couple of monthes ago...
I should rejoice and yet I can't help but smell a rat. Let's name it Karl for convenience. How is dear Karl gonna cope with the hardliners for 2006 and 2008 ?