Afghanistan, ground zero

So after all, Hamid Karzai may emerge as the official winner of the August 20th blackout.

The day presidential and regional elections were held in Afghanistan, all lights of democracy seemed to be switched off :
- a me-too product modeled after Iran's 2009 infamous elections : manipulations, forged results, stuffed ballots...
- a few typically local florentine delicacies : last minute outrageous alliances and legislative gifts, continuous and shameless corruption...
- an agenda set by enemies of democracy : Taliban intimidations, threats, bombings, terror attacks, murders, mutilations of women who dared vote..., and to spice it up,
- the revolting complicity of all major Western democracies : eyes, ears, and noses wide shut, observers didn't observe anything, media didn't report anything, respecting the blackout on violence (including the aforementioned attacks on democracy levelled by the Afghan government)

As a result : a parody of democracy, a low turnout, the final destruction of the last illusions of the Afghan people.
The government started testing rumors : Karzai would have won by a landslide with 68% thanks to a massive turnout, so no second round needed, thanks for coming.

In other words : Iran Elections 2009 redux (see "Ahmadinejad Alienates Iranian People Today, Iranian Clerics Tomorrow"), except that unlike Ahmadinejad, Karzai was supposed to cruise easily towards victory in case of a second round : Abdullah Abdullah doesn't enjoy a political spectrum as wide as Mousavi's.

But the attempted fraud went too far : such a stage of forgery would backfire on Western democracies as surely as it did on Khamenei.

So the government backpedaled and anounced today a much more politically correct first batch of official results : President Karzai would enjoy a slight, 2 point lead over his main rival according to 10% of the votes fully counted. 10% more shall be revealed tomorrow, and so on because see, that's the smartest way we and our Western allies found to gain some time to sort things out and build the least implausible scenario. We wouldn't want this crisis to take an Iranian turn, would we ?

Welcome to Ground Zero, Afghanistan. The twin towers of democracy and decency were not that tall so nobody noticed their fall, but this time, inside job conspiration theories are not totally unfounded.

blogules 2009
(also in French : "Afghanistan, morne plaine")

Next Stop : Pakistan

They have fled Iraq for Afghanistan. For many, it was a way back to where it all started. Others learned their trade in Iraq, a giant terrorist training camp created by George W. Bush in his fundamentalist crusade in a country that really didn't need this kind of touristic resorts.

Now that a surge is on the way to Kabul and Southern Afghanistan, they are touring Pakistan beyond their usual Northern safe havens.

Pakistan is not safe, and the economical, social, and political situation worsened since last November, when I wrote these already gloomy lines (see "Lessons from Mumbai ?") : "The main target in the Mumbai attacks was Pakistan, the weaker link, and the democracy the most likely to fall for fundamentalism if the international community fails to help it help itself."

44 started using the same military quick fixes as 43/36* : air strikes as "surgical" as Israel's bombs on Lebanon or Gaza. But make no mistake : diplomacy is on its way. Not the naive, vintage dovish kind of diplomacy, but resolute and fair.

Diplomacy is on its way, and Barack's most lethal weapons are on their way : ahead of Hurricane Hillary, "diplomatic equivalent of a hydrogen bomb" AfPak envoy Richard Holbrooke met with Hamid Karzai... and The H. Bomb clearly avoided the kind of toasts Carter shared with Shah Reza Pahlavi over 30 years ago.

Last week, a local governor made an international show of a bonfire of puppy crops and illegal drugs seized in his region. A small step for Afghanistan, but a major leap out of the loop for ever the media magnet Karzai.

A surge on the ground, elections and potentially new faces at the helm of the country... change is probably coming to Afghanistan.

A Taliban surge, a catastrophic economic downturn, déjà vu short sighted legal and constitutional compromises with fundamentalists, radical factions fueling the seeds of civil war... change is surely coming to Pakistan.

President Obama must keep his eyes on the ball. Keeping in mind the fact that dancers are once again changing ballrooms.


* not Lyndon Baines Johnson but George Walker Bush : 43 has just been awarded the 36th position in the best POTUS contest. Dubya's behind Hoover but before Fillmore - the latter does have the name of a villain in a Harry Potter book, while W. enjoys the fame of Daddy Herbie (41 went up from #20 to #18).