The main threat against Japan? Its own leader

On July 21, 2013, Shinzo Abe's LDP will probably win the House of Councillors elections, and the controversial Prime Minister move closer to his dreams of revising the Constitution, discarding the peaceful nature of Post-War Japan, and restoring the belligerent nature of Imperial Japan. The publication of the annual white paper "Defense of Japan" is the perfect occasion to mobilize the base ahead of the elections.

Abe has made no secret of his intentions to modify the fundamental Article 9 of the Constitution, which clearly defines Japan as a peaceful nation ("Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes"*), and prior to that, to change the Article 96, which makes it difficult to change the Constitution itself. Right now, you first need the two thirds of each of the two Houses to vote the change, then a popular vote to ratify the text**.

In order to optimize his victory in elections that vast moderate majority don't perceive as vital for the future of Japan, Abe needs a strong mobilization from his ultra-nationalist base. That's one of the reasons why his government has recently been reviving tensions with Japan's neighbors around Dokdo, Senkaku, or Kuril islands. And should uproar and anger explode across the region, they would once more be used to trick the peaceful people of Japan into believing that this anti-democratic government is actually protecting the interests of a people surrounded by hot-tempered barbarians.

Very significantly, the "Defense of Japan 2013" annual white paper issued on July 9 by the Ministry of Defense justifies the first increase in Japan's defense budget in 11 years by depicting East Asia as a region on the brink of war, where everybody's beefing up their military capacities, and where diplomacy is not even mentioned as an option: North Korea's nuclear threats got more serious than ever, "China’s activities in the sea/air area surrounding Japan involve its intrusion into Japan’s territorial waters, its violation of Japan's airspace and even dangerous actions that could cause a contingency situation", "Russia continues to intensify its military activities", and even Southeast Asian countries are forced to modernize their military forces.

Of course, the Abe Government has been pouring oil on every possible fire to make diplomacy as irrelevant as possible, and the document hints at more than just increases in Defense spendings: towards a structural revision of the National Defense Program Guidelines and the Basic Policy for National Defense, and potentially a redefinition of key concepts such as "military power", "self defense", "right for belligerency" or, why not, "control over the military by democratic political authority".

The new National Defense Program Guidelines expected by the end of the year - in other words after the elections - are expected to include the capacity, for Self Defense Forces - provided the name sticks -, "of striking military targets in enemy countries" (see "White paper echoes Abe's plans to strengthen Japan’s defense" - Asahi Shimbun 20130710).

What we'd like to hear is Shinzo Abe state loud and clear, here and now, ubi et orbi, and with all the specifics, his precise vision and his ultimate goals, how he would rewrite the Constitution, in which terms he would redefine the nation, what would be allowed and not allowed for its defense. But unlike Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, Shinzo Abe always wisely / cowardly comes short of fully speaking his mind out. And if he never leaves any room for misinterpretations, he knows how to use symbols and circular references when he's venturing into the most outrageous territories, as he recently proved during his sick tribute to the infamous Unit 731 (see "Can't top that? Shinzo Abe posing as Shiro Ishii, the Josef Mengele of Imperial Japan").

So will the right for peace triumph over the right for belligerency? With an opposition unwilling to risk infuriating the ultra-conservative minority that corrupts and controls Japan's whole political system, the population remains overwhelmingly unaware of the dangers. But one thing is sure: belligerence being defined as an aggressive or warlike disposition or behavior, Shinzo Abe himself is more than ready for action.

And in this most defining moment, the main question remains***: will the great people of Japan wake up at last, and say no to Shinzo Abe, or will it let him continue saying and doing whatever he fancies, and let the whole nation follow him along this suicidal path?

blogules 2013

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* Note that the repudiation of pacifism happens to be the first article in the definition of fascism, as written by Benito Mussolini himself in 1932: "Fascism, the more it considers and observes the future and the development of humanity quite apart from political considerations of the moment, believes neither in the possibility nor the utility of perpetual peace. It thus repudiates the doctrine of Pacifism -- born of a renunciation of the struggle and an act of cowardice in the face of sacrifice. War alone brings up to its highest tension all human energy and puts the stamp of nobility upon the peoples who have courage to meet it. All other trials are substitutes, which never really put men into the position where they have to make the great decision -- the alternative of life or death". Note also that the last element of Mussolini's definition of fascism refers to imperialism, another key ingredient in today's Imperial Japan nostalgia: "For Fascism, the growth of empire, that is to say the expansion of the nation, is an essential manifestation of vitality, and its opposite a sign of decadence". (source: http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/mussolini-fascism.asp - long time no recycling for this definition - see "Red Blogule to neo-fascists - LET'S FACE IT THEY'RE FASCISTS" - 2004/05/27)

** see previous episodes, and on Seoul Village: "ABE forced to back down a bit. For the moment. Next PR stunt: KIM Jong-un"

*** see "Dear Japan, Say No To Fascism"

Dear Japan, Say No To Fascism

Dear Japan,

I wish you the best in your effort to regain positive dynamics, but I beg you, please don't let your government carry out its main agenda: the suicidal revival of your great country's darkest moments.

Don't get fooled by Abenomics: they're only Weapons of Mass Distraction. Your Prime Minister has been very clear about his priorities:

• Shinzo Abe is an outspoken revisionist and negationist who pledged to rewrite Japan's peace constitution, and to obliterate all records of Imperial Japan's war crimes.
• Shinzo Abe, who headed the Japaneses Society for History Textbook Reform, denies all universally recognized atrocities, from the Nankin massacre to sexual slavery (midly dubbed "comfort women"), and now even dares questioning the use of "invasion" to qualify that doomed regime's expansionism.
• Shinzo Abe insists on visiting Yasukuni Shrine, a place Emperor Hirohito himself refused to visit ever since it was made public that the remains of war criminals had been moved there, the place where Japanese die-hard fascists chose to invite all European extreme-right leaders in an infamous field trip.
• Shinzo Abe, who represents Japan and speaks in its name, refuses to consider war criminals as criminals, imperialists as imperialists, and Japan as a peaceful country. And if you think this man is not a fascist, what more do you need? The return of the "kill all, loot all, destroy all" policy? His portrait between that of Adolf and Benito?

PM Fumimaro Konoe between Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini. These images will only belong to the past when Japan sets the record clear about the Imperial regime that disgraced it decades ago.
PS: I didn't reach the Godwin point, Abe did. Imagine a German Chancelor saying what he said: they'd be impeached and face justice for such an ignominy.

The worst enemies are always the ones from within and right now, Shinzo Abe and the ultra-nationalist bureaucracy that corrupted Japan's entire political system are the worst enemies of Japan. They deliberately fuel mutual hatred across the region because they need other hatemongers to reach power to secure their own future. For the moment, they're not only alienating Korea, Japan, and America, but bringing friends of Japan closer together to denounce their imposture. You think they are irrelevant and that's true, but they are dangerous, and they want to reshape Japan into a nation where people like them are relevant. You think politics have nothing to do with you but it has to do with everything you do, and in order to survive as a democracy, you simply must reclaim it, and keep people like them away from politics.

If you love your country, act as true Japanese citizens, speak up, say no to Abeignomics, and reject as false the choice between revisionism and nationalism.


blogules 2013
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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See all posts related to Japan,and particularly:
- "We reject as false the choice between revisionism and nationalism - for a Global Truth and Reconciliation Network"
- "Japan politics? No to Comfort women, yes to Political whoring"
- "Ad Nauseam: about Dark Tourism, the Blind Spots of Memory, and Free Thrashing Agreements"
- "Tokyo Sakura With Patriot Missiles (A Still Life)"
- "One Thousand Wednesdays" (also on my blogules blog in English "1,000th week of shame for Japan" and in French "Japon: regarde-toi, le monde te regarde" "also on Rue89"A Séoul, les « femmes de réconfort » de l'armée japonaise réclament justice"
- "L'extreme-droite Japonaise invite Le Pen... et les projecteurs" (also on Rue89 "La visite de Le Pen au Japon, coup de com pour l'extrême droite nippone")
- "Revisionist schoolbooks : change has not come to Japan"
- "A Common History" (NB: a too brief glimmer of hope)
- "Claiming Dokdo as Takeshima equals claiming Seoul as Gyeongseong"
- ...

Mobile Virtual Nuclear Operators

As expected, North Korea set the agenda ahead of the 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit (see focus on Seoul Village), this time by announcing for April a 'satellite' launch in the general direction of (Japan, thank Kim The Third for small mercies) the East China Sea.

Shooting Southwards doesn't make sense if you want to optimize a satellite launch and leverage the Earth's rotation, or in the case of North Korea, if you want to minimize the risks of casualties, but of course, that's not the aim of the game. And speaking of games: sweeping such a big fat "dolsot" curling stone all the way down to the hottest spot of contention between Korea and Japan*... my oh my, what a smart way of piggybacking international conflicts! You know, like a M-VNO entering a market without rolling out its own wireless network? These guys are inventing low cost dictatorship!

As is often the case, this latest crisis can be interpreted as the North Korean idea of a private joke between what passes for the executive power there and the local army (I know, these days, distinguishing one from the other is the equivalent of a hairsplitting contest in a Buddhist monastery, particularly now that Kim Elvis has met his maker - not Kim Il-sung, the other one, if he?she?it? exists). The message? In a nutshell: swallow this bitter pill, willya? In extenso: Okaaay guys, we just reached an agreement with the Evil Empire of the United Rogue States of America about our nuclear activities, but look: we just needed the suckers to send us some more bags of rice for you, because there's only you in our lives - "Army first", remember? And to make sure we want to follow your "Juche Line"**, we'll make both the "Sunshine Line" and the "Beijing Line" angry by shooting our rocket (oops, 'launching our satellite') toward the East China Sea – heck, while we're at it, we could even crash Taiwan's party as well...

... Where was I?

In Gwonnong-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul, of course. This very morning. At the top floor of GCS International Building, enjoying a glorious view on Changdeokgung (to my left), and Jongmyo (to my right). What better location for a seminar on North Korean nukes than the headquarters of a peace-oriented NGO (GCS), with a view on two key symbols of power in 'Joseon' times: in peace and harmony on one side, with the deceased on the other...***

With so much at stake, we have no choice but to try and be cautiously optimistic. And to keep humor alive. As Woody Allen put it during his intensive training of Kim Jong-un: "More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly".

Among today's panelists, John E. ENDICOTT (President, Woosong University) was the closest to experience a near-death 'Dr Strangelove' situation: this US Air Force veteran told us how, at the peak of the Cuban missile crisis, he ended up in a bunker with the top brass announcing that doom was likely to be ignited in 20 minutes...

In these really tricky times, I'm looking forward to Obama's visit of the DMZ, a potential 'jeoneun Hanguk saram imnida' / 'Mr Kim, tear down that wall' moment. Not a game changer, but a simple message: the time of reconciliation will eventually come, and the sooner the better, but it takes a dialog between both Korean halves, starting right now.

Last year, South Korea was reconsidering its own tough-cop approach, which proved rather counter-productive... except maybe from the Chinese point of view (see "Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"). Today, our panelists were more interested in how far the North was ready to engage in collaboration.

Hosted by GCS International, this Asia Institute Seminar focused on "Revisiting Nuclear Safety and Nuclear Security in North Korea"****. Hard to expect full collaboration and transparency from the most secretive country on the touchiest of materials, with a nuclear industry globally in damage control mode ever since the tsunami hit the fan in Fukushima, and days after South Korea unveiled an embarrassing cover-up following an incident in its own nuclear facilities (see "Twelve Minutes in Bballi-Bballiland"). And Sharon SQUASSONI, an expert in proliferation prevention who's visited the North several times, thinks that North Koreans themselves may be a bit too confident about how much they know about their own level of security.

You'd think the collaboration between Japan and its neighbors would have improved after last year's fiasco but it turns out that no, little or no progress has been made, and communication is already poor within an archipelago technically cut in two (electricity itself cannot circulate between West - 60 Hz - and East - 50 Hz!), and where private operators are not compelled to disclose key indicators as is the case in the US. If even close and friendly neighbors don't trust each other, no wonder the general public show doubt and defiance toward governments and the nuclear industry in general. Former Minister of the Environment KIM Myung-ja stressed the power of activists and the need for transparency.

After the Daichi mess, daily measurements of radioactivity from the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety brought much needed clarity to the debate and today, I welcomed the precious insights from their principal researcher: a technical expert with a sound approach of the human and cultural factors, Dr KIM Sok-chul underlined the differences between security and safety, or between the perception of events, their comprehension, and their prevention. He also revealed that the risk of human errors was maximal with knowledge based behaviors (compared to ruled based or skilled based systems). The same could be said about finance and neural scoring systems but enough scary stories for today.

Actually, this very gloomy period could prove rich in opportunities. Instead of the usual blame game and finger pointing at one rogue state, both Koreas, China, and Japan could humbly seat at the same table with a simple task: we're all in this together, as neighbors and fellow (at least) civil nuclear powers, and we are all facing criticisms for various reasons. Let's share about it, and find ways to be more efficient for the next emergency. To make it simpler, let's keep Russia and the US out of this*****. We won't judge each other, just make sure we handle things better than last year. Maybe, as trust and confidence grows, we'll share more information, but let's start this with modest yet vital objectives.

Since the audience was rather small, everybody could chime in, so I suggested this sort of a NEAR (North East Asia Response) task force. Earlier, Scott SNYDER, who deplored the US failure to prevent vertical proliferation, had proposed a more direct offer to North Korea: you want to launch a satellite? Great: we can do it for you, and safely. Of course they'll refuse (it's all about controlling the propeller, and not for satellites), but bringing the discussions to new planes may work better than - say - Sergey Labrov's basic reset button.

blogules 2012 - initially published on Seoul Village ("NK and nukes: back to the (dolsot curling) stone age?")
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* see "Ieodo: I smell a fish", or the controversial construction of a US Navy base at the Southwestern tip of Jeju-do. FYI: in Korea, 'dolsot' dishes are usually served in stone bowls heated directly on charcoal.

** if you're a bit lost with the different characters, see the previous episodes of our NK drama, including "Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"

*** Jongmyo and Changdeokgung are two beautiful, adjacent, UNESCO listed sites in central Seoul, built by the Joseon dynasty that founded the capital and ruled until the Japanese occupation. Note that neither North Koreans nor South Koreans call the country 'Korea': the former use "Joseon", the latter "Hanguk" (the nation of the Han people).

**** "Revisiting Nuclear Safety and Nuclear Security in North Korea" (Asia Institute Seminar) 2012/03/22:
- Introduction: CHO Cheol-je (Secretary General, GCS International)
- Opening remarks: John E. ENDICOTT (President, Woosong University)
- Panelists: Sharon SQUASSONI (Director, Proliferation Prevention Program, CSIS), Scott A. SNYDER (Senior Fellow for Korea Studies, Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy, Council on Foreign Relations), KIM Sok-chul (Principal Researcher, Head, Radiological Emergency and Security Preparedness Department, KINS - Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety), KIM Myung-ja (Chairwoman, Green 21 Forum / Former Minister of the Environment)
- Moderator: Emanuel PASTREICH (Director, The Asia Institute / Professor, Humanitas College, Kyung Hee University)
On the picture, left to right: Ms. KIM, Mr. KIM, Ms. SQUASSONI, Mr. SNYDER

***** anyway, as Dr KIM pointed out, 20 years from now, 50% of the world's nuclear reactors will be located in the region.

KIM Jong-il: four weddings and a funeral

So as expected, KIM Jong-il died. A bit early to secure the transition with KIM Jong-un, who might be tempted to show his skills to those who doubt he's got whatever that is North Korean leaders are supposed to have.

Physically, Junior already used plastic surgery to improve his Kimilsungist looks, let's hope he won't try to sport his dad's weirdo hairdo now.

Character-wise, Jong-un is rumored to be more ill-tempered than his brothers Jong-nam and Jong-chol, respectively a Disneyland and an Eric Clapton fan. But compared to the Late Dear Leader, he's more permeated with such capitalist perversions as burgers. And it starts showing, particularly in a country where the population is maintained in a constant state of starvation.

As far as leadership is concerned, Jong-un didn't quite pass the cut last year: the young lad has been credited with the latest attack on South Korean soil but doesn't seem much of an expert, judging by the way he uses binoculars...

So we'll follow KIM Jong-il's funerals (after four weddings, Hugh can grant him that**). And eminent Pyeongyangologists will watch closely: who will keep a seat when the music stops? Isn't CHANG Sung-taek a trifle too old for musical chairs? Will Beijing-friendly people get promoted in the army*?

In South Korea, a North Korean Spring or Winter would have consequences for the 2012 elections: more tensions could become a problem for AHN Cheol-soo (commander in chief beyond cyberwars?), and boost conservatives, but not necessarily PARK Geun-hye (would Koreans vote for a woman in times of crisis, and one used to operating only behind the scenes at that?).

By the way. This week-end, LEE Myung-bak visited Japan, and devoted the bulk of his talks with Yoshihiko Noda to the issue of Japanese military sexual slavery, following Wednesday's successful demonstration (see "One Thousand Wednesdays"). But if he's consistent, the President must also reactivate the Truth and Reconciliation Commission: every country must face its own past, particularly when it expects the same from its neighbors.


blogules 2011
(originally on Seoul Village: "KIM Jong-il passes. To KIM Jong-un. Presumably.")
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*... and the invisible 'hanschluss' continue? see "China-North Korea : the Great Hanschluss still the base case scenario", and previous posts about NK

** BTW 'Four weddings and a funeral' got released in 1994, the same year KIM Il-sung died.

---
20111230 update: corrected the title (which I changed while editing). Obviously, I never quite got used to Kim Jong-il. And KJI sounds more than ever like a name from the past.

Korea : too soft, but not soft enough

The major blackout Korea just experienced may be the consequence of a hacking of KEPCO earlier this year. It also could be due to a simple bug.

I can't help but believe in the first scenario, which would cast yet another unsettling cloud over the country and its security.

Over the past few months, Korea has proven embarrassing vulnerabilities in strategic areas :
- conventional warfare : military / organizational fiascos following North Korean attacks (ie Yeonpyeong)
- hackings / suspicious blackouts at the core of vital networks : financial (ie banks), media / internet, air traffic, and now electricity...

So regardless of who is responsible here (incompetence) or there (most fingers pointing at North Korea or China), a malicious organization could completely incapacitate Korea within minutes without using any conventional weapon. Even if the aim is not an invasion per se (nor even a diversion preceding an invasion of say North Korea), this would definitely damage the reputation of Korea as an economic powerhouse.

With its drive, infrastructures and talents, Korea should be ahead of Israel in national security. KISA (Korea Information Security Agency) significantly improved its visibility, but the national culture remains focused on hardware.

Samsung has eventually understood it needed to evolve and change business models, but it took series of obvious wake up calls (ie Google wolfing down Motorola). The government will probably follow suit. And if spurs are needed, the potential candidacy of Ahn Cheol-soo at the 2012 presidential elections might help : the founder of antivirus specialist AhnLab has some credentials in the area.


blogules 2011
(also on Seoul Village : "Korean blitz : all bases loaded")

Carbon Dioxide Emissions per unit of Gross Domestic Product

I just love this expression : Carbon Dioxide Emissions per unit of GDP. It surely sounds lovely in Mandarin Chinese. Something like "gentle breeze dissipating mild smokescreen revealing proudly standing bird finger".

China will cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 40 to 45 percent in 2020 from 2005

Nice headline, eh ?

How about that one, from a few days ago :

South Korea will cut its carbon dioxide emissions by 30 percent in 2020 from 2005 compared to business as usual

Si Senor, that's a big fat -4% vs 2005.

Expect major announcements from Copenhagen. And don't forget to check the fine print.

And thank you for reading © blogules : since 2003, weapons of mass disinformation you can trust ^TM.

blogules 2009

As if

The Dow Jones Industrial hit the 10k mark, again.

This is not the same index : General Motors or Citigroup Incorporated have gone after September 2008 (AIG left the DJI a little bit earlier). And this is not the same Bank Of America either...
So basically a makeshift index passes a symbolic mark. So what ? This new bubble is simply not sustainable. And Mr Jones cannot make much dough out of industries which often have yet to evolve.

Asia is booming, again.

And real estate bubbles keep inflating in South Korea, Hong Kong, or China. Hu Jintao wants to secure positions for his friends before the 2012 regime reshuffle, and Beijing decided to sacrifice long term economic soundness for short term growth. Seoul also refuses to deflate the housing bubble for fear of accelerating the second dip. LEE Myung-bak knows the demand will grow during the construction of all programs launched before 2008, but hopes that the hard landing will not happen under his "sit and watch".

Financial institutions are racking up profits, again.

Part of their garbage has been collected, but they keep doing business as usual : destroying value in the long term to maximize short term gains, focusing innovation on ways of bending laws, sucking money from places where investments are really needed. Total crap.

...

Three years after the downturn, one year after The Crisis, we are somehow still in denial (see "This is not a financial crisis"), and the same diagnosis applies.

There's still a lot of greedy money out there : unable to find exciting guaranteed returns (closer to 5% than to the 15-20% they were used to - not enough to hedge inflation which is bound to come back with a vengence), investors keep fueling bubbles in stocks, commodities, gold, currencies, private equities, and even real estate.

Regulation remains a dirty word and everything is done to undermine collective and comprehensive efforts to reform the system.

The question is not if but when the next wake up call comes. Before the end of the year ? H1 2010 ? Will the illusion even last until 2011 ? Will everything collapse big time in 2012 ?

Yet I'm still confident : in the long term, we are to evolve from free market to fair market.

blogules 2009

Change has come to Japan.

Change has eventually come to Japan.

The country decided to face its own past, and to reach for its neighbors in a joint effort to restore tragic facts as parts of a common history : confirming the hopes raised by Hatoyama's election, Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada called for joint history text books between Japan, China, and Korea*, and revived the courageous position of former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama, who apologied for "damage and suffering" under colonial rule, called for an end to nationalism, and urged fellow Japanese citizens to face their own past.

Indeed, the time has come to set the record straight, and to silence for good ultra-nationalists from all sides, particularly after years of incessant provocations**.

From all sides ? Very much like Obama's speeches denouncing choices made by his predecessor sucked arguments out of warmongers overseas as well as in the US, Japan's call for justice upon itself will expose the impostors who needed such provocations to fuel their own nationalist agendas.

If China is more than eager to cope with say the Nanking Massacre, I'm not sure Beijing regime is willing to abandon its own outright revisionist programs : English scholars recently mocked at China's attempts of claiming (or rather "hanschlussing") Goguryeo civilization : as if England decided to claim Germany !

Korea itself hasn't yet fully come to terms with its own darkest moments but keeps, as it should, investigating and correcting past wrongdoings.

Yet, not everybody is happy with this, and diehard nationalists keep lobbying against the Truth and Reconciliation Commission***. Doing so, they are actually undermining the nation's efforts to emerge as a great nation on the international stage. Because contrary to what they pretend, more revelations won't bring shame but only pride, respect and praise from other nations.

As a French citizen, I've always felt at the same time an immense respect for Germany and the way post-WWII generations were educated about Nazi atrocities, and ashamed by how late France started admitting its own contributions to the genocide, or its wrongdoings as a colonial power.

As a country accepts its past weaknesses, it strengthens itself for the future, and sends the best message to its youth and to the world. A nation respecting lessons from history is a great and future proof nation.

As it welcomes an invitation for truth and reconciliation from Japan, Korea needs to support its own Truth and Reconciliation Commission more than ever.

And together, Korea and Japan must send the best message to the region and to the world, as role models for a new, peaceful Asia.

blogules 2009

see also "A Common History" on Seoul Village

* see "Japanese foreign minister suggests joint history texts" (JoongAng Daily 20091009)
** see too many previous blogules on Japan and China.
*** on Seoul Village : "President Lee, please keep digging".

ADDENDUM 20091012
This post was published in JoongAng Ilbo today under the title "Japan may face its history"

Paulson, Sarkozy to Socialist Heaven : "show me the money !"

Europe hastily awarded some jailed Chinese dissident with some prestigious human rights prize before embarking on a plane for Beijing.

There, Jose Manuel Barroso, Nicolas Sarkozy et al went down on their knees and begged the Great Socialist Empire to let some of its wealthy reserves trickle down over the bankrupt Capitalist rest of the World.

From DC, Hank Paulson also asked the IIIrd Millenium's Hyperpower to consider some kind of a Marshall plan ("could you please bail out the US of A ? you know, we don't hate socialists that badly, after all - according to John McCain we're even about to elect one as our President").

In other words, capitalism defies socialist China : "Show me the money".

Wen Jiabao is all ears. And smiles*. "Yes, we can".

Yes, Wen can provide some kind of relief to his new admirers, but he has some fish to fry at home as well. Will he chose to secure China's business model and one fifth of the World's population, to help the richest fifth, or to give a hand to the forgotten rest ? Probably a little bit of each : China will durably strengthen its positions in Asia, Africa, Europe and America, but the trickiest part will be China itself (see "Pervasive China's CIA (Central Investment Agency)").

New series of models will emerge. Not this week-end. Nor November the 15th, when the World Egghead Forum takes place. Nor even during the couple of years to come. But timely (at a geologic time scale at least).

They will differ from XXth century socialism or capitalism (see "This is not a financial crisis"), and China is no exception.

* Actually, I'm wondering how badly Wen's jaws hurt - he was already jubilating during his interview with Zakaria a couple of weeks ago (GPS @ CNN / Newsweek). But not as much as I did, listening to Alan Greenspan swallow just a tiny little bit of his titanic pride.

White, red and pink blogules to the World in 2020

The CER (Centre for European Reform ) and Accenture recently waged a debate about the World in 2020, partly fueled by Mark Leonard's essay "Divided world: The struggle for supremacy". The democracy vs autocracy divide sounds a little bit white vs black to me, and I may add a few other key structural changes within :
- America enjoying good demography dynamics but becoming more monolithic, more focused on itself, welcoming fewer influences from abroad. Growing old a different way.
- At the opposite of this Mainland Amerika, China is embracing its own diversity. Chinese imperialism is no more about spreading a unique monolithic model but about a much smarter pervasiveness, leveraging on all minorities instead of crushing cultural diversity (ie China intends to build the core of Koreanhood on its very soil, claims the Koguryo cultural heritage, and position the Korean peninsula as a motherland's satellite).
- What I call "Asianitude" keeps growing. Asian countries developping intra-asian relationships beyond the traditional bilateral relationships with Western countries, students and executives moving from places to places, a common ground and cultural identity, a sense of belonging to the same community at the individuals level...
- The Korean moment. Surrounded by ambitious giants (and a Japan dangerously returning to ultra nationalism and Showa-style fascism), seen as the herald of cultural diversity for other Asian nations, Korea has to cope with the collapse of North Korea. In what I call the Albania scenario, the people who used to live in a quasi sect are totally unprepared for a market economy : con men and gurus get the bulk of the values they received as a kick start in a new world.
- The turn of the millenium rise of fundamentalism (Christian in the US and Eastern Europe, Jewish in Eretz Israel and Islamist everywhere) may last if democracies keep electing leaders who put religion at the top of their not so hidden agendas (the collapse of Iraq, the rise of Iran as the regional threat, and the boost to fundamentalists across the globe were not collateral damage but the very aim of Bush's game). And while terrorists trained in Iraq blossom on new urban and suburban playgrounds, al Qaeda survivors and wannabes focus on rural Asia, Africa and South America.

Discussion - 3 challenges for Korea

(my answer to a question regarding the critical challenges Korea will face in the 10 years to come)

I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.

The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)

The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.

Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.

Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.

The end of financial safe havens - Red blogule to speculation

Shanghai sneezed, Tokyo coughed, the whole world panicked... but avian flu had nothing to do with it. According to Ben Bernanke, Chief Futurologist Officer at the Fed, this week's small bump on the eternal path of glory of the World's greatest stock exchanges doesn't mean the big naughty R will strike anytime soon.
Yet it shows how nervous investors are, globally. There is a lot of greedy money everywhere and not only from your usual suspects (the so called developped countries) : everybody is well informed and almost free to invest almost anywhere anytime. Speculation remains good business but demands better nerves than ever. Hedge funds were the first to collapse under their own weight and now, even traditional players struggle. The money is there, growth is there too, but the place is so crowded with both experts and beginners that nothing is guaranteed.
There is no such thing as a financial safe haven anymore, and this greedy money will somehow have to focus on tasks more useful for a larger community. No wonder some people have been rediscovering The Capital lately. But with a fresher look.
I like to compare Karl Marx with Louis Pasteur : both were great observers and could deliver pertinent diagnosis, but Carlito couldn't go all the way of experimentation and would often wander too far along the path of interpretation, coming back with irrelevant prescriptions and leaving to other doctors the honor of delivering counterproductive treatments.
I know this is the kind of excuses used in the past by the Supreme Soviet or the CPC (Communist Party of China), but I do think the time has come for the cast of pure speculators to feel the heat and join the Hall of Shame : you have a right to sell weapons, tobacco, alcohol, casino chips, and to make a lot of dough with it, but don't expect to be respected for that.

White blogule to the NYT - The State of the Union in Words

Dear compassionate reader,

Last year, I would release a scoop for your eyes only : the State of the Union speech as initially written by George W. Bush. A few days later, you could measure the gap between his fundamentalist way of thinking and the official propaganda*.

This year, a new face joined the sitcom for Season VII : behind the Kommander in Thief sitted Lobby Dick Cheney, as usual and with his trademark snarl, but also Nancy Pelosi, completing a perfect Good vs Evil picture.

And the New York Times offered an exciting gimmick to fully enjoy the show : an online search engine comparing the usage of keywords during all SotU speeches since 2001**. For example, the words Iraq/Iraqi(s) were never used in 2001, twice in 2002, and respectively 21, 24, 27, 16 and 34 times the following years. There is even a graphic showing the positions of all occurences in all speeches.

If you compare "Security" with "Social Security", you can notice all 15 occurences of the former were actually associated with the latter in 2001. One year later, only 2 of 19 occurences of Security had something to do with health.

Bush bats a steady 5,000 words and 53.5 "America" per speech, plus 5.7 for "United States". "China" is not exactly at the top of his mind : he uttered it once this year, tying the humble record of years 2002, 2003 and 2006. The "World" ? Dubya didn't care for it when he took office (2 mentions), gave it some consideration after 9/11 (19-26-13-15-27 between 2002 and 2006), and put it back to the bottom drawer in front of a semi-hostile audience yesterday (10).

The word "peace" has never been so unpopular in his mouth : 3 miserable appearances in 2007 after a solid 6- 5- 10- 5- 12- 8 streak. On the other hand, "war" is back to its peak levels : 11 vs 2-13-13-12-5-2.

Don't be fooled by this overall rather balanced 46-58 "peace-war" ratio : from 2001 to 2007, the POTUS mentioned only 19 "liberty" and 20 "democracy" vs 44 (non-social) "security" and 145 "terror".

Another propaganda favorite looks almost abandoned this year : the "Freedom" agenda knocked only 3 times at our door (vs 8-14-5-8-21-17). W seems to have some trouble selling values this season, so he sticks to less vague concepts and pitches below the waist, where Joe Sixpack can catch a neither fast- nor knuckle- ball. Significantly, the part of "freedom" in the overall occurences of "free" is also at its lowest point : 27% vs an average 65%, after last year's staggering peak (94.4%!).

Anyway... what George W. Bush said is one thing, how he looked another and what he'll do yet another. The actual State of the Union remains that of the Divided States of Amerika.

* "White blogule to the State of the Union speech - complete and uncut edition" (20060126), followed by "Red blogule to Demokracy - professor Bush's vision" (20060204)
** see nytimes.com/ref/washington/20070123_STATEOFUNION.htmlx

Red blogule to Kim Jong-il and to the six party talks

Unsurprisingly, North Korea proceeded to its first nuclear trial. An underground fart worth 4.2 on Richter's scale. Just loud enough for people around to get the message without the poisonous stench. In the dead middle of key commitee meetings in China, right during Abe's first visit to South Korea, and a few days after the quasi-confirmation of Ban Ki-moon as the UN's next secretary-general.

Kim Jong-il is guilty. For maintaining his country in terror, absolute denial of liberty and basic human rights, for imposing starvation, torture, deportations and other sweets to a people brought back to the Middle Age under the rule of a totalitarian sect. For having no other goal than preserving his own liberty, whatever the consequences.

South Korea is guilty. For avoiding the touchy "human rights" topic in order not to hurt the feelings of its neighbor. For balking in front of a reunification that would cost thousands of times more than Germany's from an humanitarian as well as an economical, social and political point of view.

Russia is guilty. For exporting the Stalinian model in its most perverse version. For nurturing a monster in the middle of a region under American influence.

China is guilty. For not seizing the opportunity of Russia's collapse in order to cool Kim's regime down when it was the weakest. For strenghtening militarism instead of encouraging reforms. And of course for wanting a Korean reunification INSIDE China.

Japan is guilty. For doing everything in order to delay a reunification that would cast it away from the center of the New Far East. For sabotaging each and every progress in the six-party talks as efficiently as its American friends.

USA are guilty. For letting their hawkiest wings crush any opportunity or opening, for wanting the messiest degradation of the situation, for purposedly strenghtening Kim's regime in its most diabolical sides. For refusing bilateral talks and becoming the most negative player in these 6 party talks, even before Kim himself. For knowingly provoquing the nuclear crisis and eventually collecting a much awaited diversion right before the November 2006 elections : "hey lads, see what kind of mess we prevented by removing Saddam from power ? see what happens when you let the UN or the IAEA take care of the WMD proliferation control ?"

The UN is guilty indeed. For relying on the goodwill of the United States of America, China and Russia for any decision going beyond the purchase of staples for the 8th floor.

Let's hope last night's trials will lead to a positive opening. Just like India and Pakistan did before declaring PAT instead of CHESSMATE.

Red blogule to Korea's hubs - meanwhile, in China...

While Busan, Incheon and several Seoul areas compete to become Asia's next hub, China plays "baduk" at a much larger level in order to host the future center of Korea.

Claiming Korea's cultural heritage is not enough. Even if their army of revisionist historians don't succeed in putting Koguryo on the Map of China, Beijing's strategic planners will use their multitudes to build a Great Wall of Korea on Chinese soil.

This future "Korean triangle" is meant to become even more powerful than Shanghai. The bay around Dalian being safe from freezing winters, it can compete with both Incheon and Busan and become the ideal spot for the future Eurasian railways terminals - no need to bother completing these silly inter-korean lines boys, we're taking care of everything from Motherland. Look, the "Bay of Korea" bathes our shores, we're not like those naughty Japanese imperialists who renamed the Sea of Korea "Sea of Japan" or worse, called Dokdo "Takeshima" as a tribute to their colonial craft (they say "bamboo island" comes from the shapes of the rocks but we all know how bamboo grows : Takeshima doesn't describe this dust on the sea but celebrates the first implantation of the Empire on a foreign soil).

China's building the ideal home for Koreans, leveraging on its strong local ethnic minority and intending to lure natives from the Korean Peninsula : either from the North (escaping from Hell), or from the South (escaping from a country with the World's lowest fertility rate, an insane education system and fewer opportunities in general) in a XXIst Century wild West gold rush (by the way, while we're at it, why not have some drafting sessions in LA's Koreatown as well ?). Thats a serious threat for a country whose most valuable assets are intangible or related to the very character of its population.

To make it even worse, the recent politico-military deal clinched between Japan and the US further precipitates Seoul in the welcoming arms of Beijing. And Korea can't find much disinterested support from its other giant neighbor Russia. Kofi Annan won't be of much help to Roh Moo-hyun for a better respect of fair play in the region. Korea needs to federate other Asian nations worried about China's and Japan's neo-imperialism, become a herald of cultural, economical and political diversity in the region... without angering Beijing too much because it can't afford it.

Korea can become a hub after all. But only if its major cities play as a team instead of competing with each other.

Red blogule to North Korea's hooligans

The small riot in Pyongyang's Kim Il-Sung Stadium yesterday (following the defeat of North Korea to Iran 2-0) could be considered as good news since it exposes the deliquescence of the ruling power. I don't think it should.
The problem is the same as for Iraq, only worse : a regime change is badly needed, but the changing itself means a highly dangerous situation and should be carefuly planned. The chaos in Iraq may look very peaceful compared to what could happen the other side of the DMZ and at the frontiers (especially with China).
Something big is definitely going to happen in North Korea, and much sooner than expected. A collapse by the end of the year wouldn't surprise me. Chosun's neighbors should get ready, and so should the UN, the only international body which could be accepted by Pyongyang or what's left of it.

Red blogule to France - Papy blues

France, Europe and the World - papy blues ?
France will hold a referendum on the EU constitution this year. A "no" sure would make the news, but is there any way the country could get an identity back ?
Jacques Chirac has a knack for finding ways of putting his country back on the map, and the resistance to the American domination seems an inspirational source - from nuclear explosions in the Pacific Ocean (the rationale : some coral crushing is the price to pay in order not to depend on the US for some sensitive data crunching) to more glamourous fights (in favor of the "cultural diversity", against the Bush mob about Iraq).
Now it's time to define France and Europe a more subtle way. Both shouldn't exist simply as a negative or counterbalancing force to such superpowers as the US or China.
Up to now, the French have somehow succeeded in being instrumental in the creation and development of the European Union. This influence is now over, even if former president Giscard d'Estaing led the EU Constitution project in 2004. Even the golden seat at the UN (veto power can deter as efficiently as nukes) may soon become history.
So France welcomes this referendum as the main event of the year to come. A proof of its very existence. Discovering with stupor what it means to become Europe's "Belle Province" - a proud, scenic and original spot without much influence on its environment nor its own destiny.

White blogule to cultural diversity - China is already on top

The US don't even realize it yet but they've already been overtaken by China. Forget the traditional measuring tools supposed to tell you what a superpower is (GDP, RBI... you name it). We're talking about the way a country's culture attracts people from all over the world. The US model is already dead and the Chinese one just finishing its warm up period.
This time, China won't try to overwhelm the region with its mandarin style rococco but peacefully let the world enjoy and spread the word about a second to none variety of cultures and ethnies... provided they get rid of their tradition of coating everything in a disneylike display of radical colors or in a tasteless MSG saturated sauce.
In the meanwhile, come enjoy beautiful Yunnan before mass tourism takes too much flavor out of it. Back from Kunming, Lijiang, Dali and Zhongdian.