Hillary not likable enough?

HRC is obviously trying to roll the clock back to early 2008, when she found her voice by shedding a tear. But this time again, it seems too late in the game, and not that sincere.

As announced (see "ABH Corpus"), Bernie Sanders is enjoying the time of his life at the helm of the Anyone But Hillary movement, all other Dem candidates failing miserably in the polls. The question is not which bubble will burst first between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, but if someone will show up to save the RNC.

Joe Biden is the most likely - and likable, that's important too - candidate, and Monmouth University polls clearly show a Joementum (see below), but does he want to race, and can his scores remain that stellar if he officially kills Clinton?

Monmouth University September polls ("National: Clinton lead shrinks - While non-candidate Biden makes gains")

For the moment, Hillary doesn't seem able to reload her campaign, to bring freshness to it. That's what Veep Picks are for, but her main hurdle is the primaries, and the early ones at that. Hell, she can't even afford waiting for IA and NH; she must pull out something by the end of this year, or else...

If the core Dem dilemma is about character, what to say of the GOP side? Ahead of the second debate, 3 non-politicians steal the show (Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina), but the not likable enough Jeb Bush stays in the race, and Mike Huckabee has thrown a Hail Mary Pass on the Kim Davis case (if the Kentucky clerk ever gets sanctified, that will be for surviving a quartering act between the Fox News host from Hope, AR and Ted Cruz).

To lead this GOP, the most rational choice seems to be Kim Jong-un:

BREAKING - Kim Jong-un declares war to Donald Trump (20150821 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/634558694936604672)

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If it ain't fixed, break it again

Mitch McConnell - conservatism won vs. change

When America last voted in 2012, Obama was confirmed, and the Democratic lead in the Senate strengthened, but the gap in the House of Representatives only reduced from 193/242 to 201/234, allowing the GOP to maintain its campaign of sabotage in D.C.. Since the POTUS kindly obliged by self-destructing, the Reps are not only back to 241/191 at the House, but also holding a large majority at the Senate. Even if Barack won't let them totally destroy Obamacare, they can do pretty much as they like. 

And go at Hillary's throat. 

If Clinton's popularity erodes further over 2015, a real Plan B could emerge. Someone more likely to succeed than Joe Biden, who doesn't stand a chance - and not only because he's 5 years older than HRC. And preferably someone more consensual than Elizabeth Warren, who said she wouldn't run against the Obvious Candidate, but wouldn't mind being the Obivous One.

Arkansas goes to GOP. Not to Hillary Clinton 2016 - 20141105
twitter.com/stephanemot/status/529808582347198464

Right now, the GOP enjoys a much wider choice of candidates. Of course we'll see Rand Paul and a bunch of new nutties in the great Sarah Palin - Herman Cain tradition. Plus a 2016 version of Jon Huntsman, maybe Rob Portman. This time, if a fresh new face prevails, we may not get an out-of-the-blue Veep Pick.
Among the favorites:
- Chris Christie: the heaviest of the heavyweights, but only literally, and if he returns from his "bridge to you know where"
- Jeb Bush: probably too late for him, too early for George P. Bush
- Pick Your Latino: Ted Cruz a bit boring, but Marco Rubio's place on the ticket is not anymore guaranteed.

Anyway, today, neither America nor the GOP are fixed, and the latter needs to prove it can do something positive to the former.

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A Bridge To You Know Where

On damage mode ever since the George Washington Bridge scandal derailed his 2016 campaign, Chris Christie must prove that he's not totally out of the game.

Chris Christie's 2016 bid now a bridge to nowhere. Time for some traffic problems at the GOP.
twitter.com/stephanemot/status/422171645852143616 (20140112).

.

Can the New Jersey Governor finesse his way out of this mess? The concept drawing to mind the image of the hippo dance in Fantasia, it could at least be fun watching his efforts in a tutu and ballerina shoes:

'Chris Christie finessing his way away from the George Washington Bridge scandal in front of fellow GOP hopefuls ('White House Fantasy', Walt Dismay Pictures)

Robert Gates didn't wait for the crash to submit his own resume, attn potential candidates looking for a running mate able to work for BOTH George W. Bush and Barack Obama. In his memoir, "Duty", the former Secretary of Defense even added some Veep Debate credentials for 2016 by slamming Joe Biden's inconsistent foreign policy record. As if serving Dubya and Obama were consistent... His successor Chuck Hagel looks weaker, but he stands his ground.

Meanwhile, the GOP continues to postpone its unavoidable reform*, and to make do with tea partiers, theocons and other anticons.

The NutHouse just picked David Schweikert for the Environment subcommittee of the Science Committee. Since the man signed the "No Climate Tax Pledge", no climate control law shall pass under his watch. Schweikert has a pristine oil-lobby-friendly voting record: against greenhouse gas regulation, in favor of more drilling, including in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge...

With snafued enemies like these, Hillary Clinton can sleep without a worry until the Primaries.

Unless, of course, the 800-pound gorilla manages to rock the dance floor.

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* see "Grand Old Parting - enter the anticons"

The Commander In Chief Has Spoken

I won't be cruel enough to compare DNC 2012 and RNC 2012... Scratch that. I mean. Who could decently resist the urge?

The only speech we remember from Tampa is Clint Eastwood's "Clumsy Harry" flop, and I can't count the stellar performances I've seen in Charlotte over the past three nights. Light years ahead of the Tampa duds.

What better answer to Fading Star Shooter Clint Eastwood than Recovering Gabrielle Giffords? Gaby wasn't stellar, simply radiating. Not decomposing side by side with an empty chair, but proudly looking forward, standing in front of a US flag. Gaby went ahead and made our day very very special.

Of course, this being the DEMOCRATIC party, a mirror to the great American rainbow, Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer had to stick to his guns just like, the previous night*, Sister Simone Campbell stuck to her 'pro-life stance'. And of course, Schweitzer, who knows Mitt Romney and business far to well to vote Republican, was not aired by FoxNews. What I didn't expect was CNN cutting Charlie Crist in the middle of his speech.

I think Barack Obama gave the greatest speech any human being could give under the circumstances, but if I were to pick the best performance of this great convention, I'd vote Michelle Obama, with John Kerry a not so distant second.

Sorry Bill. I loved the way you tippergored Barack while Hillary was in Noncharlottistan, but John Kerry was much more presidential than you. And he didn't stretch his talk beyond the essential: every single word, every single sentence connected. Timeless yet timely common sense, wisdom, vision... If Kerry was not a great campaigner, he would have been one of the greatest POTUS in History. Actually, I wonder if I haven't already seen his face on a US bank note.

The way President Kerry dismembered President Romney... splendid. Yes, that was an easy task: "I, Romnbot"** isn't assembled yet. Yes, he didn't miss the opportunity to expose the actual flip-flopper. But as the - I hope - next Secretary of State, John Kerry also exposed Mitt Romney as the worst possible world leader, nailing him with a delicious "before you debate Barack Obama on foreign policy, you better finish the debate with yourself". Ouch.

Romney never stood the comparison with Obama, Biden, Kerry, Clinton, or even that empty chair. Even Jill Biden outshone any GOP speaker. A full time teacher, a military mom, and the thing that both Obamas and both Bidens have that the Romneys and Ryans lack: sincerity in the eyes. With friends like Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, John Kerry, or Joe Biden, Barack Obama will move more mountains. Mitt Romney looked everyday smaller, more lonely. Someone smoke him out of the hole he dug himself into before November 6!

With that unique smile of his, Joe Biden showed how Barack Obama decided to take the high way instead of Romney's "Bain way". He highlighted equal access, stakeholders, values, instead of inequities and shareholder value. And confirmed the record: GM alive, Bin Laden dead.

Romney's record? An old, scratched LP playing the same negative tune on and on, never moving to a new plane, never even disclosing a plan. America doesn't need negative vibes right now, "it has never, never, ever, been a good bet to bet against the American people", and "we have no intention of downsizing the American Dream".

The Romney campaign communique following the DNC summed up the GOP's lack of ideas and vision. It could have been written before the convention: "Tonight President Obama laid out the choice in this election, making the case for more of the same policies that haven't worked for the past four years. He offered more promises, but he hasn’t kept the promises he made four years ago. Americans will hold President Obama accountable for his record – they know they’re not better off and that it’s time to change direction. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan will restore America’s promise and deliver a better future for our country."

And after watching both conventions, how can one possibly hesitate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney to lead the world? How can one possibly put Paul Ryan in Biden's seat behind the POTUS for Romney's State of the Disunion Address? In a position to potentially nominate the next Supreme Justice?

America needs love, good vibes. Look at Joe and Jill, look how Michelle Obama introduced her lover, outhugging Bill Clinton in a warm embrace.

America needs self confidence. Look at Obama talk about the return of "Made in America" when "No-Tax-Return" Mitt Romney plays it "Hidden in Caymans". Look at this Commander in Chief mocking at the Gaffer in Chief's foreign politic antics in London.

Barack Obama couldn't propose the same kind of speech as four years ago. He had to go down from the Olymp of timeless principles to concrete, day to day issues, and he did it efficiently and gracefully. But he didn't lose his mojo nor his vision of History, and he presidentially restored citizenship as a core value.

From Day 1***, this Convention has been all about Unity in diversity and adversity. And united, all Democrats stood for democracy.

And at the end of it all, Barack Obama delivered an inspiring acceptance speech, boosting the whole country forward, where Mitt Romney only read a boring denial script, barely comforting Bain investors.

Take that, Mitt: Barack is The President. And THE. Chief. Executive. Officer. 

blogules 2012
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* see "Bubba Clinton rocks DNC 2012: GOP Unity My Ass!"
** see "I RomnBot (Meet Mitt)" *** "DNC 2012 Day 1: Come Together, Now"

Bubba Clinton rocks DNC 2012: GOP Unity My Ass!

The day the NRA and the AIPAC stop dictating political platforms, the USA might become an independent democracy.
 
Day 2 of DNC 2012 started in damage control mode: the Democratic platform had to mention God and Jerusalem to pass the theocratic cut. The POTUS didn't need to receive a 3 A.M. call from the AIPAC to sense the danger for November 6. You can count on conservative pundits to spin this non-event as a blahblahgate blown to biblical proportions, but the case got easily closed. For good measure, Madeleine Albright pinned a splendid "Pro-Israel" brooch on Obama's chest. 
 
And the incident proved that at least, the Democratic Party remains open for debate. Heck: Sister Simone Campbell was even allowed to deliver her "pro-life stance"! And she didn't crucify Romney just to redeem herself or simply because he's a Mormon. 
 

 
Day 2 of DNC 2012 soon switched back to full groovy mode. The floor fretted at the news that Barack would meet Bubba on stage later in the night, and everybody waited for something special from Liz Warren.
 
Meanwhile, with only a few VIPs on stage to hammer the messages (in substance: if Barack Obama stands for working people in the US, Mitt Romney rather watches his own money work in the Caymans), CNN served slices of Hillary to fill the blanks. The Secretary of State had seeked refuge in NonCharlottistan during the Convention, and I bet John Kerry will succeed her for Obama Season V, but when she was abruptly asked how she judged her "boss", she answered with one of the sweetest compliments she ever made to her 2008 rival. Amazing "grace" indeed.
 
Meanwhile, still, John King delt his full deck of maps. I'm pretty sure that when he sleeps, John King sees red and blue county maps. Grey ones when he's got a nightmare. And when he can't fall asleep? He probably recounts Florida 2000 ballots.

Eventually, we didn't have to wait long for great moments. Sandra Fluke did more than deliver a pro-choice speech. She brought down the house and for that, she didn't even have to raise her voice. Sandra Fluke simply rose and use her voice, exactly what conservatives don't like in a woman.

At the beginning of Elizabeth Warren's "warm up act for President Clinton", I confess I thought she too needed a warm up act. Then she started addressing the issues that count, and my oh my, if independent voters listen to her speech, they'll instantly tear down the GOP ballot. Warren stood for all humans against the inhuman program of Romney-Ryan. The best answer to Mitt's infamous "corporations are people".

Bill Clinton trumpeted Barack Obama's second term from Yesterday's Gone to Forward Folks. Not as perfect as Michelle Obama yesterday (Bubba can be too talkative and professoral), but he won her heart by offering his best support to the "man who had the good sense to marry" her. What a one man show! Simply unstoppable. Barack ? "A man cool on the outside but burning for America on the inside". The RNC 2012? In "an alternative universe". Correct location, Bill. And we're not even mentioning Romney's "moral compass", more than questioned by Randy Johnson, a former Bain employee, a couple of hours earlier. By the way, Mitt: Joe Biden's seat is not empty, but all others are. For the standing ovation in his honor, courtesy POTUS #42.
 
Professor Bill Clinton slammed Mitt Romney: the wannabe should learn arithmetic before giving lessons on budget. And even on jobs. America is better off without Republicans who cost her one million jobs by crippling the Congress, and of course GM is better off without Romney in the driving seat. Paul Ryan? It takes an Irishman to know one, it takes a saxophonist to know brass, and "it takes some brass to attack a guy for doing what you did". Struck out, the rookie.

Not only did Bill deliver an even better speech than he would have for himself, but this final, powerful Clinton-Obama embrace? You couldn't find a more perfect union at work.

Cruel comparison with that cold reunion of losers right after Ryan's acceptance speech... Last time Mitt Romney hugged someone so hard, nine month later Ann had their last kid.

 
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* see "DNC 2012 Day 1: Come Together, Now"

Joe Biden's stand-up comedy routine

Back from Israel, Joe Biden at 2010 Radio & TV Correspondents' Dinner : his trip in Israel, his tips from Tiger Woods, his palm reading of Sarah, his foot in mouth disease...



blogules 2010

Barack "No Crisis" Obama

Joe Biden publicly humiliated by Bibi Netanyahu* ?

Israeli hardliners pushing provocations to new standards, embarrassing even their "regular hawk" followers ?

General David Petraeus confirming the impossibility to support at the same time this clique of warmongers and peace ?

"No Crisis", answers Barack No Drama Obama.

The POTUS doesn't mean that there is no crisis between the US of A and Israel : he simply doesn't want a crisis between his healthcare reform agenda and AIPAC ahead of US mid-term elections.

So be it. No Crisis, then.

As planned by Netanyahu & co, Salam Fayyad and Fatah reformers will lose to radicals, the Palestinian Authority collapse for good, and even if Bibi doesn't get the intifada he wants**, Tel Aviv extremists will strengthten their grip on the Israeli democracy without even the weakest reaction from the Israeli people (I won't even mention Israeli opposition parties : they either joined or condoned this infamous coalition, and Amir Perez is not my idea of a peace maker).

No Crisis, Oby wan Kennedy said.

Barack Hussein Obama also said these few words, during his inaugural address : "to those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the West: know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy". Netanyahu obviously took it as an encouragement : "great ! I will destroy peace, and I'll be rewarded for the illegal colonies I build."

No Crisis, I'm telling you : all is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

blogules 2010

* maybe, instead of Joe The Biden, the Israeli PM expected Joe The Plumber, who would have more cheerfully given a hand for new Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem ("Home Improvement" after "Israel's Funniest Away Videos" ?)
** see "Netanyahu's al Aqsa intifada"

We didn't come here to fear the future. We came here to shape it

"We didn't come here to fear the future. We came here to shape it".

That's a good definition of what politics should be all about, and a perfect punchline for a speech on reforms.

So forget about "fear politics" and embrace "shape politics". Fitter, smarter, trendier, evolutive, creative... what else is in a word ?

Images, maybe. The shape of John McCain's nervous rictus as he was reminded how much he shared with his friend Ted Kennedy on health care. The shape of Nancy Pelosi's nervous smile as she tried to stand up at the right moments to get a few claps from the public option loving liberal part of the audience.

And the audience was tense, alright. The man in charge was telling them : It's not about me, Barack Hussein Obama, it's about you. I can run the country, but YOU can't hide. I'm doing my job, just do yours.

And oh. I'm keeping my eye on the ball : "we reject as false the choice between our social security and our ideals"


blogules 2009

Six Pax Americana - Brewing the Gatesgate

President Barack Hussein Obama invited Professor Henry Louis Gates and Sergeant James Crowley for a Beer Summit at the White House, mobilising Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden Junior in the process.

Pundits keep elaborating on the level of racism reached during the incident that triggered the summit : Sgt Crowley handcuffed Pr Gates in his home. Prof had to force his own door to enter. Neighbor called the police, suspecting a theft. Sarge declined to tell his own name. POTUS said "police acted stupidly". Media spun the whole thing into some kind of a Victorian remake of "Do The Right Thing".

You have to understand the media : they were used to crispier gates, with cells, torture, waterboarding, pretzels, screams... the whole shebang and now what ? Instead of another Bush, they get Anheuser Busch !

If it weren't for healthcare / health scares, Obama's first year would be boring : the only major scandals are the Puppygate, the Flygate, and now the Gatesgate...

What next ? The Yawngate ?

Hillary won't run again. Unless...

Hillary Clinton swears she won't run again for president : "I have absolutely no belief, in my mind, that that will happen".

In her mind no, but in her heart, there's still that tiny little glimmer of hope.

HRC is 62, and BHO seems on his irresistible way to a second term, even if he fails miserably on Healthcare, the 1994 Clinton style.

2016 Hillary will probably be much fitter at 69-70 than 2008 John McCain, a 72 year-old Vietnam-and-skin-cancer survivor more or less losing his marbles. But a full throttle campaign, again ? Thanks, but no thanks.

Of course, there is the possibility of a "RFK moment"*, an unexpected opening for the top job... but my guess is that Hillary Clinton will settle for #2 with the help of her old(er) friend Joe Biden, who will turn 70 in 2012.

Joe has never hidden his respect for a person he himself would have picked as Obama's running mate. She would of course be at the top of his list should he have to select a Veep as the next POTUS.

I don't see Joe Biden running again. The risk of becoming a liability, the opportunity to leave office as a sound leader, and to be instrumental in the breaking of another glass ceiling... I'm sure he'll decline a second term as Vice-President.

Furthermore, Barack and Hillary have let Primary dust settle and would form the perfect 2012 ticket for America. This scenario, which already seemed obvious even as primaries raged, now definitely looks like the base case.


* see "Dial Hillary for murder"

Netanyahu's al Aqsa intifada

Benjamin Netanyahu has a sense for timing. To answer Obama's ultimatum on illegal colonies on Palestinian ground, he waited for the POTUS to be silenced by uproar in Iran*.

Emboldened by the crisis in Tehran, Tel Aviv hawks pushed ahead, financing new settlements. Internal Security Minister Yitzhak Aharanovitch's visit to al Aqsa Mosque was supposed to mirror that of then Interior Minister Ariel Sharon to the Temple Mount back in 2000, which ignited the Second Intifada. Only Sharon didn't even dare entering the Mosque. Avigdor Lieberman's friend did, and his team went as far as exlaining that "the intention of the visit was to see how the police would deploy in case of an emergency"**.

The Temple Mount has been under considerable threat for years, several extreme right Israeli activist groups undermining its very foundations and claiming this sacred Muslim ground as theirs. One could hardly find any more controversial thing to do at this defining moment.

As advertised during his campaign, Benjamin Netanyahu is governing the most extreme way. His intentions are crystal clear : fueling hatred, destroying all peace attempts, strengthening radicals within Israeli as well as Palestinian ranks... business as usual for a post-Rabin Israeli PM. The difference : Netanyahu must act even bolder than his predecessors to maintain his coalition.

Joe Biden mentioned a test during the first 6 months of Obama's presidency ? Here we are. Die hard fundamentalists are putting their very existence in the balance in both Iran and Israel... And oh, Kim Jong-il plans another missile launch to celebrate July the 4th. Take your ticket and get in the line.

* see previous blogules on post-Bush Israel and Iran, and "Justice in America, No Democracy in Israel ?".
** from IslamOnline.net and "Occupied Jerusalem" : "Palestinians Blast Provocative Al-Aqsa Visit"

AIPAC Hillary v. J Street Barack

My first reaction when I heard about the Clintons being vetted for Secretary of State and Chief Bubbassador was disappointment : I get the "good-cop - bad-cop" concept but to me, this looks like XXth century politics and XIXth century diplomacy.

My second reaction was : that's a darn good way of getting rid of the Clintons. Billy Boy will never accept to open his books (Prez library and beyond), and once again, turn into a liaBillity for the person who made a President Of The United States out of a cool dude from Hope, AR.

I guess we'll have to watch the usual good cop bad cop flick after all. The NYPD veteran swallowing her pride after the rookie took the medal she'd been coveting for decades, and now ready to catch a bullet for a not so cool dude from Hope, HI she wished (in her wildest dreams*) would catch one first.

Scenarists pushed the cliché all the way to the young tall Afro-American / old short blond Caucasian stereotypes. Their car is an old Detroit survivor with dented bumpers and a battered exhaust pipe spitting more tar than a chain smoker on his deathbed. The tough veteran can read NYC's mid forties streets like the palm of her own hand and would never miss an AIPAC meeting. The soft speaking toddler in an Hawai'ian shirt is more the J Street** kind of guy, but not the kind of person to sport bumper stickers for this kind of causes either.

Both have the full support of Police chief Biden a.k.a. Frank Drebin, their white haired, gaffe prone boss who knows the city best and can use a gun when needed.

This squad may not catch the most wanted terrorist but together, they can do a lot of damage to his network. Not to mention a lot of good things if scenarists truly really want the new series to become a hit.

Season I premieres Jan. 20.

* remember that old black & white movie, "Dial Hillary for murder" ? Feels like it was released eons ago.
** see "J Street - at last"

The Maverick is free again

I watched both victory speeches.

Obama obviously prepared the first part and the last part of his most important speech until January 20... but not much else. 44 somehow filled the blanks with a medley of his own campaign speeches, sounding at times presidential, at times partisan, and letting us wondering whether he was talking to Chicago, a crowd of ecstatic fans, the USA or the whole World.

But you cannot blame him for delivering just a great speech instead of a truly Historic one. Not today. And I loved to see this beautiful first family*, this colorful Obama-Biden kindergarten, and Barack's wonderful smile at the very last moment when he left the stage. A smart kid enjoying a powerful home run over the neighbor's fence (did you hear that window crack ? could be a glass ceiling for all you know...).

McCain celebrated his victory against himself. He seemed relieved and at peace with himself. Not compelled to please the most extreme core of diehard fanatics anymore. His speech was quite good and probably sincere (except of course for his tribute to Sarah Palin, you betcha).


* we've seen them grow up, wide and grey - but stronger and even deeper in love with each other. Michelle will be America's favorite First Lady. And if she wants, she can even do what Hillary couldn't 8 to 16 years from now.

America is a great country

OH has just been called as blue as PA.

Barack Hussein Obama is the 44th President Of The United States of America.

This man (or Joe Biden or even Hillary Clinton*) will nominate the next Supreme Justices : sound and unpartisan citizens who will make sure that, for the decades to come, the country not only remains a democracy, but also becomes a much better one.

America refused Bush-McCain-Palin's Amerika, embraced democracy, and voted massively**.

America decided to lead the Western World with the best person for the job (a strong and smart leader, a charismatic uniter with a vision and a sound approach to complex challenges), and this person happens to be an African America born in the Pacific Ocean and raised in South East Asia.

America decided to say YES to History.

In the most vital election since Abraham Lincoln's, America has just made the biggest step towards redemption.

Whatever happens now (and it won't be a walk in the park), America will forever be very very very proud of this moment of grace.

* should a lunatic fulfill her "dream" (and my nightmare) before Jan. 20, Biden would probably let her take the helm.

** overwhelming a nasty campaign, last minute dirty tricks and hoaxes, and potential bitter legal actions. By the way, I hope President Obama will do something and fix this miserable electorate system.

---
Addendum 20081109 : 236.com Election night in 2 mn (that should be Election Day In A Minute).

---
Addendum 20090602 : thos video seems to be experiencing some problems (with an impact on this site's efficiency)... I maintain the link to the original page on Huffington Post / 236.com.

October 29 Surprise ?

I just received Joe Biden's robomail for Barack's 10/29 special :

"Next Wednesday, October 29th, is a perfect night for supporters like you to
host a party in your home. Barack will appear on TV at 8:00 p.m. Eastern for 30
minutes. He'll share a positive message with Americans and discuss his plans for
healthcare reform, economic recovery, and a responsible end to the war in Iraq."

And I thought to myself hold on a minute. I'm John McCain, I don't have a dime to spare and my opponent is trusting prime time TV. My only way out is to have something else making the headlines that day. My new pal Dubya happens to be at a position where strings can be pulled...

If something really huge must hit the fan before November 4 (e.g. China invades North Korea), I'm ready to bet a buck on that very date.

---
addendum 20081027 (see cartoon)

Dubya eventually picked Syria to deliver the October Surprise McCain needed (red flag provoquing an artificial tension). Smart move : putting economy behind security is one thing, but boosting AIPAC vs JStreet may keep FL red.

Debate # 3 : That One tamed The Whipper

And the winner is... Joe The Plumber. Or maybe Bob Schiffer.

John McCain survived another day, leading the first half of the debate, putting Barack Obama on the defensive, wording his distance with Bush ("Senator Obama, I'm not President Bush"), and winning the closing address.

In his best debate so far (and the last one : should he win, Palin will probably do the next one), McCain even survived the Veep test, Obama failing to point out the fact that Joe Biden was ready to lead the country from day one.

But the Sitting Bull looked once again very grumpy when his opponent was talking, and Obama, who gracefully dodged the abortion ("Nobody's pro-abortion") and Bill Ayers bullets, wrapped the second half thanks to health and education. And he was a little bit more subtle when it came to courting Ohio / Michigan voters ("Joe The Plumber" crushed by a Detroit motorcade).

Obama was tired and not in his best day. But he didn't make any mistake and didn't hurt his batting average that badly.

He was just a nice smart man debating with a nervous person who came to make a show or better : to fight on a ring. McCain came out smiling, but Americans are not in a mood to count this kind of points.

Wrestling with Joe The Plumber, The Maverick won the WWF bout, but facing America, Barack Obama won the Presidential Debate.

SNL Palin-Biden debate : easy win(k) for Tina

Easy win(k) for Tina... 



... but Darrell Hammond deserves a re-run :

The New Energy Expert Doesn't Blink - She Winks

Tonight, we met the latest version of Sarah Palin. A mix between the RNC pitbull and the brawling Ross Perot.

We've been winked at, mavericked, joesixpacked, hockeymommed, heckovulotted, mainstreeterlikemeed, youbetchized, wakdawaktakdataked by the new self proclaimed national expert in energy issues.

Tonight, Joe Biden was controling himself (he only managed to lose the gay-lesbian voters, who anyway won't rush to Sarah Read My Lipstick Palin*). Like Obama the other day**, he missed opportunities on economics (he could for instance denounce the politics of "fear" of her opponent).

But he didn't blink when it came to put a label on the Bush legacy ("an abject failure") or Dick Cheney ("the most dangerous Vice-President in History"). And he shed a tear that looked more genuine than Palin's fake and nervous compassion. Besides, his support of Israel sounded more sincere than her AIPAC leaflet... The true "natural" was the one who didn't have to train clumsily to look and sound like one.

As expected, Palin fared better than many thought, but only in appearance. I'm not sure everybody will be fooled, but at least some hardliners must feel some relief.

Biden wasn't fooled, but he too must be feeling some relief.

You don't debate with someone who doesn't believe in debate. You don't debate with someone who thinks he/she is always right and never make mistakes. You don't debate with someone who thinks there is no such thing as evolution.

You just speak and listen to this person speak. And hope he or she will never be in a position to nominate Supreme Justices.


* Gobernator III doesn't read newspapers (see Couric interview) but I know she subscribes to such publications as AmericanRifleman, The Neo-Creationist, Theocon Weekly, or the Bushnomist (the First Dude is rumored to favor an Alaskan skin magazine (Of Moose and Men).
** see "Debate # 1 : McCain didn't lose, and President Obama spared him".

A Maverick or a Gambler ?

Jo Becker and Don van Natta Jr from The New York Times delivered a very interesting paper on John McCain and his relationship to gambling and the gambling industry*.

The man is a gambler, and members of his team as well as major sponsors of his campaign have close ties with the industry.

This doesn't come as a surprise and explains a lot about the man, and his behavior... particularily after a week during which the wheel kept turning in the wrong direction for him.

I want to raise the issue of timing. Why raise this issue right now ?

It sounds like more and more people, including in the GOP, are not feeling so comfortable with the McCain-Palin ticket.

Palin is a magnet for theocons, but a scarecrow for voters who want a reliable vice-president instead of a theocon puppet. McCain and Bush will have to invent a major diversion to cancel her "debate" with Joe Biden (even if the format of the meeting protects her : no direct confrontation, this impostor can safely recitate Schmidt's mantras)

McCain was relatively spared, but the media will be more focusing on his character in the days to come : a gambler, often bad tempered, a womanizer who dumped his first wife because she didn't look as nice after a dramatic car incident... not exactly a poster child for the religious right.

True Republicans will feel relieved if this ticket fails. It's the only way of reforming the GOP, of getting rid of the Bush-Cheney theocon-neocon clique who disgraced the party and the country over the past 8 years.

Expect more circumstantiated character destruction about John McCain and Sarah Palin in the days to come.

This character destruction will prevent the character assassination of the US of A**.


* see "McCain and Team Have Many Ties to Gambling Industry" (NYT 20080928)
** see "Change is coming" and Mac "will fight", but for whom and for what ?"

Prisoner Of Wasilla - A short sighted Maverick

John McCain is a POW now. Prisoner Of Wasilla, he'll have to go all the way to November with the caricature of a Veep he picked in a last minute "hail Maria pass" (as Jonathan Atler splendidly put it).

Old Noah had to fill his Arch before the Gustav flood, but didn't have enough time to find a member of each species. With Sarah Palin, he filled a few checkboxes in one shot : Mac is targeting hardcore Hillarists ? Palin is a woman. Mac is turning 72 ? Palin is 44. Mac wants to rally ultraconservatives ? Palin is a mother of 5, against abortion rights, and a NRA activist. Mac wants to please Bush's fundamentalist base ? Palin prones the teaching of creationism / Intelligent Design at school.

Even better : as Mark Brown put it, "Palin gives them the reason (excuse?) they needed to vote for McCain, assuming they weren't already there. Now they won't be voting AGAINST the black man. They'll be voting FOR the woman." So the Palin quick fix is solving both the gender and race issues. Another way for McCain of evading the direct comparison with Obama.

Brilliant...

And pathetic.

This isn't a daring move but a purely defensive, tactical, and short sighted one. The kind of moves a cornered rookie chess player would try in an embarrassingly childish final display of bravado. John McCain has no long term vision whatsoever : he is simply everyday more desperate to please everybody, everyday more hollow and inconsistent.

Mac says he’s been keeping an eye on his Pal for years, but he actually met her 6 months ago, and called her only once about the job*. The "maverick" is gone, replaced by either a compulsive gambler, or someone who totally despises the Vice Presidency (after all, this very man already delivered a cristal clear definition for the job : "The vice president has two duties : one is to inquire daily as to the health of the president, and the other is to attend the funerals of Third World dictators").

What a contrast with the Obama - Biden ticket ! Barack chose Joe because he respected him for his judgement and his ability to challenge him a positive way for the good of the country, like a trustable and unbiased partner would do.

McCain-Palin ? They don’t respect each other. They don’t even know each other, never worked together. Can’t work together... unless, of course, John McCain decides to give up totally to his darker side, and accepts to lose the McCainistan war. I don't know whether he's lost his bearings, but I hope Independents won't lose theirs and follow such a dangerous path.

Let Obama take care of him in the Presidential debates.

Meanwhile, Hillary has unfinished job to do and I expect her to come out and expose Palin's imposture (she personifies what feminists abhorr : a former beauty queen**, a militant against abortion rights, a NRA activist willing to nuke Roe vs Wade). That would prove she really meant what the said the other night.

Before Hurricane Hillary touches down, the McCain-Palin duet intends to surf on Hurricane Gustav, the perfect Weapon of Mass Distraction : imagine them facing the elements in a spectacular New Orleans acceptance speech - what a dramatic, un-Conventional, un-big-stadium-extravaganza change ! The perfect PR op' at the best moment.

And far less risky than facing a mob of dubious and angry Reps.

* read "The story behind the Palin surprise" (Jonathan Martin on Politico 20080829)
** When you say "I think that’s a pretty, pretty event-filled and record-filled resume", are you talking about the Miss Wasilla 1984 line, John ? Do you really believe in this "agent of change" who doesn't understand evolution ?, this untested, small town celeb one heartbeat away of leading 300 million Americans ?