Let us consider my fellow French citizens as junkies, eager to give up their illusions but still hooked to them and asking candidates for yet another fix...
Segolene Royal comes to them and tells them : "I'm listening to what you say. I will give you a dose even bigger than the one you're dreaming of. You will feel good today and tomorrow will look brighter - actually, I'm sure things will get better for you.
Nicolas Sarkozy tells the French : "I'm really listening to what you say, and I understand that what you mean is not give me more but get me out of here. I won't push you down any further, I will help you up.
The sales pitch is less sexy but a little bit more responsible.
As you noticed earlier in this excuse for a blog, I don't precisely like Mr Sarkozy. But I know he is the only one who can put the country back on track. And I know he is now under the strict control and scrutiny of the UMP's centrist majority, the very people who will actually do the job with him, but people who won't stay with him if he happens to deviate from the healthy line (ie Sarko confirmed several times he won't touch to France's secularism).
I seriously considered voting for Bayrou one year ago. Back then, I was sure he had a chance, the same way I knew back in 1996 Blair could win the following year, to the great surprise of my British friends. But the man proved once again to be a disapointment ; a good man but a loner, not a leader. His surrealistic "debate" with Royal confirmed my worries : this man of dialogue drowned in Sego's autistic monologue.
But last Tuesday, Royal eventually met someone who exposed her sideral vacuity. I often compare her to Dubya : both are impostors and fake compassionate conservatists, but at least Bush is a good actor and he knows both the role he has to play and the man he truly is. Sego doesn't even know who nor what she is. She is actually running away from this confrontation and discovered the way of persuasing herself she exists in a selfpersuasive mantra technique : she routinely picks up things that sound nice everywhere and adds them to her speech, which grows into something as huge as implausible and inconsistent, and when someone says a trifle loud something looks a trifle too much she withdraws it. No one stopped her during the Socialist Party's primaries, no one stopped her during the campaign, and someone eventually said "get real", someone eventually imposed her first actual debate.
Even then, Sego refused any contradiction (no, not true, you're lying), she denied the right to answer (you don't have the right to answer, no). But Sarko kept focusing on the content while Sego sticked to the appearence, putting all her weight in one attack carefully planed. Sarko already knew Sego would attack because she warned her staff before. The question was when. She knew Le Petit Nicolas would raise the issue of the disabled children (he actually delivered the very same words a couple of days earlier in a prime time interview), and her strategy was to strike at this precise moment. She did a pretty good job in pretending to choke on what he said as if it were the first time she heard it, and she convinced many observers of her courage and sincerity. But she also lost many sympathisers who considered her as... sympathetic (66% of voters before the debate, 53% after - Opinionway poll). And women are not fooled : they don't like her and prefer to vote for Sarko (49% vs 38% - TNS Sofres barometer).
Masks are off and I do hope French citizens will vote with more discernment in 2007 than US citizens in 2004.
20070430
Red blogule to Kim Seung-youn - bar vs bar at a bar
The Hanwha conglomerate owns a baseball club, but his owner Kim Seung-youn decided to use a metal bar to punish by himself four youngsters who dared fight with his son in a downtown Seoul night club.
Mr Kim came along with an impressive roster of 17 bodyguards armed with guns and knives, picking up his victims as if he were shopping at a mall. After he was done with them, he asked his sluggers to finish the job, which mercifully didn't involve any killing.
The videotape proving the razzia miraculously disappeared, but the victims and numerous witnesses are talking.
Money used to solve everything for Korea's biggest chaebols, but executive, judicial, and media powers are claiming more and more often their independence. Besides, Korean netizens are making sure nobody is untouchable, even when the law cannot prove nor do anything.
This disgraceful incident is both a blessing for Roh Moo-hyun in his crusade against the most deviant of Chaebol Allmighties*, and good news for Korean democracy : in the end the power belongs to the people.
As for the power hitter called Kim Seung-youn, his high batting average will give some fish to fry to his defense, and he may end up managing his anger in a prison's baseball team.
* not to mention his crusade against lameduckhood...
Mr Kim came along with an impressive roster of 17 bodyguards armed with guns and knives, picking up his victims as if he were shopping at a mall. After he was done with them, he asked his sluggers to finish the job, which mercifully didn't involve any killing.
The videotape proving the razzia miraculously disappeared, but the victims and numerous witnesses are talking.
Money used to solve everything for Korea's biggest chaebols, but executive, judicial, and media powers are claiming more and more often their independence. Besides, Korean netizens are making sure nobody is untouchable, even when the law cannot prove nor do anything.
This disgraceful incident is both a blessing for Roh Moo-hyun in his crusade against the most deviant of Chaebol Allmighties*, and good news for Korean democracy : in the end the power belongs to the people.
As for the power hitter called Kim Seung-youn, his high batting average will give some fish to fry to his defense, and he may end up managing his anger in a prison's baseball team.
* not to mention his crusade against lameduckhood...
20070426
White, red and pink blogules to the World in 2020
The CER (Centre for European Reform ) and Accenture recently waged a debate about the World in 2020, partly fueled by Mark Leonard's essay "Divided world: The struggle for supremacy". The democracy vs autocracy divide sounds a little bit white vs black to me, and I may add a few other key structural changes within :
- America enjoying good demography dynamics but becoming more monolithic, more focused on itself, welcoming fewer influences from abroad. Growing old a different way.
- At the opposite of this Mainland Amerika, China is embracing its own diversity. Chinese imperialism is no more about spreading a unique monolithic model but about a much smarter pervasiveness, leveraging on all minorities instead of crushing cultural diversity (ie China intends to build the core of Koreanhood on its very soil, claims the Koguryo cultural heritage, and position the Korean peninsula as a motherland's satellite).
- What I call "Asianitude" keeps growing. Asian countries developping intra-asian relationships beyond the traditional bilateral relationships with Western countries, students and executives moving from places to places, a common ground and cultural identity, a sense of belonging to the same community at the individuals level...
- The Korean moment. Surrounded by ambitious giants (and a Japan dangerously returning to ultra nationalism and Showa-style fascism), seen as the herald of cultural diversity for other Asian nations, Korea has to cope with the collapse of North Korea. In what I call the Albania scenario, the people who used to live in a quasi sect are totally unprepared for a market economy : con men and gurus get the bulk of the values they received as a kick start in a new world.
- The turn of the millenium rise of fundamentalism (Christian in the US and Eastern Europe, Jewish in Eretz Israel and Islamist everywhere) may last if democracies keep electing leaders who put religion at the top of their not so hidden agendas (the collapse of Iraq, the rise of Iran as the regional threat, and the boost to fundamentalists across the globe were not collateral damage but the very aim of Bush's game). And while terrorists trained in Iraq blossom on new urban and suburban playgrounds, al Qaeda survivors and wannabes focus on rural Asia, Africa and South America.
- America enjoying good demography dynamics but becoming more monolithic, more focused on itself, welcoming fewer influences from abroad. Growing old a different way.
- At the opposite of this Mainland Amerika, China is embracing its own diversity. Chinese imperialism is no more about spreading a unique monolithic model but about a much smarter pervasiveness, leveraging on all minorities instead of crushing cultural diversity (ie China intends to build the core of Koreanhood on its very soil, claims the Koguryo cultural heritage, and position the Korean peninsula as a motherland's satellite).
- What I call "Asianitude" keeps growing. Asian countries developping intra-asian relationships beyond the traditional bilateral relationships with Western countries, students and executives moving from places to places, a common ground and cultural identity, a sense of belonging to the same community at the individuals level...
- The Korean moment. Surrounded by ambitious giants (and a Japan dangerously returning to ultra nationalism and Showa-style fascism), seen as the herald of cultural diversity for other Asian nations, Korea has to cope with the collapse of North Korea. In what I call the Albania scenario, the people who used to live in a quasi sect are totally unprepared for a market economy : con men and gurus get the bulk of the values they received as a kick start in a new world.
- The turn of the millenium rise of fundamentalism (Christian in the US and Eastern Europe, Jewish in Eretz Israel and Islamist everywhere) may last if democracies keep electing leaders who put religion at the top of their not so hidden agendas (the collapse of Iraq, the rise of Iran as the regional threat, and the boost to fundamentalists across the globe were not collateral damage but the very aim of Bush's game). And while terrorists trained in Iraq blossom on new urban and suburban playgrounds, al Qaeda survivors and wannabes focus on rural Asia, Africa and South America.
20070420
Le vote futile - why French socialists shouldn't vote for Royal
Before the 2004 elections, I would advise Republicans who loved their party and who truly respected republican values not to vote for Bush. I'm not sure the GOP will recover from the 2006 fiasco on time for 2008...
I'm telling the same thing to French socialists right now : if you believe in a modern form of socialism and compassionate politics, do not vote for Segolene Royal this Sunday. France cannot afford to be ruled by the Socialist Party as it is right now, and certainly not by a candidate who proved unable to federate her own family, unable to give a clear vision, unable to rise above a swamp of demagogy.
Royal never ventured beyond areas where debate could rage. Europe ? 35-hour week ? the national debt ? Well below the radar of touchy issues and just above the minefield of personal attacks on her rivals, Sego decided to focus on the consensual issue of the budget devoted to the French President for her last week of campaigning. Pathetic.
Socialists reformers want the French PS to implode. This party died two years ago after the Referendum on Europe, and the worst thing that could happen now would be a socialist majority composed of conflicting minorities. Ruling over such a mess would be much tougher than achieving Bayrou's dream of a balanced government positioned at the center.
Reformers should not accept Sego's conservative agenda, and conservative leftists would better vote for one of the small candidates "to the left of the left". At least, Mrs Buffet believes in what she says and respects the political debate.
But both reformers and hardliners are hesitating : Le Pen could reach the second round again.
But since this man cannot be elected (unless France turns into Florida), even that would be better than electing Royal : the socialists, who did not move one inch since April 21, 2002 despite the humiliation, would then be forced to evolve and split. Let the primates go their way and the moderates pave a new one.
If Royal were to win, France would lose immediately, and the Parti Socialist not long after. The only winner would be the Royal - Hollande couple.
I hope socialists won't subscribe to this hollow program.
Unless they enjoy being dubbed Europe's stupidest left.
I'm telling the same thing to French socialists right now : if you believe in a modern form of socialism and compassionate politics, do not vote for Segolene Royal this Sunday. France cannot afford to be ruled by the Socialist Party as it is right now, and certainly not by a candidate who proved unable to federate her own family, unable to give a clear vision, unable to rise above a swamp of demagogy.
Royal never ventured beyond areas where debate could rage. Europe ? 35-hour week ? the national debt ? Well below the radar of touchy issues and just above the minefield of personal attacks on her rivals, Sego decided to focus on the consensual issue of the budget devoted to the French President for her last week of campaigning. Pathetic.
Socialists reformers want the French PS to implode. This party died two years ago after the Referendum on Europe, and the worst thing that could happen now would be a socialist majority composed of conflicting minorities. Ruling over such a mess would be much tougher than achieving Bayrou's dream of a balanced government positioned at the center.
Reformers should not accept Sego's conservative agenda, and conservative leftists would better vote for one of the small candidates "to the left of the left". At least, Mrs Buffet believes in what she says and respects the political debate.
But both reformers and hardliners are hesitating : Le Pen could reach the second round again.
But since this man cannot be elected (unless France turns into Florida), even that would be better than electing Royal : the socialists, who did not move one inch since April 21, 2002 despite the humiliation, would then be forced to evolve and split. Let the primates go their way and the moderates pave a new one.
If Royal were to win, France would lose immediately, and the Parti Socialist not long after. The only winner would be the Royal - Hollande couple.
I hope socialists won't subscribe to this hollow program.
Unless they enjoy being dubbed Europe's stupidest left.
20070419
April 28, 2007: Impeachment Day
Being just a cheese eating surrender French citizen, there's not much I can do but spread the news. But if you happen to be a US citizen (like a big half of this site's visitors), you can and you must do something : impeach the guy who pretends to be the President of the United States of America.
Make yourself known one way or another on April 28th, 2007. Make that day Judgment Day for this Stubborn Again Christian, and terminate his political career the most suitable way. Check a28.org for events and fellow responsible citizens near you. Wake your neighbors up. Wake your Congressmen and Congresswomen up. Wake your country up. Wake up.
Make yourself known one way or another on April 28th, 2007. Make that day Judgment Day for this Stubborn Again Christian, and terminate his political career the most suitable way. Check a28.org for events and fellow responsible citizens near you. Wake your neighbors up. Wake your Congressmen and Congresswomen up. Wake your country up. Wake up.
20070415
Red blogule to Wolfie's Personal World Bank
Annus horribilis for neocons (continued) : Paul Wolfowitz, whose World Bank is supposed to give governance lessons, abused his power to raise above the level of decency the pay of his own girlfriend. Alberto Gonzales and Karl Rove may be the next members of the crude crew to fall, the Dems only have a few months to restore America and impeach both Lord Dubya, King of the Banana Republic of the Divided States of Amerika, and his puppeteer Lobby Dick Cheney.
Anyway, History will give its verdict sooner or later, and the Bush years will be forever remembered as years of immorality and disgrace.
Anyway, History will give its verdict sooner or later, and the Bush years will be forever remembered as years of immorality and disgrace.
20070328
Discussion - 3 challenges for Korea
(my answer to a question regarding the critical challenges Korea will face in the 10 years to come)
I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.
The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)
The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.
Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.
Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.
I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.
The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)
The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.
Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.
Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.
20070327
Monica Goodling's silence of the lambs - Red blogule to the State of Terror
John M. Dowd is a lawyer. I'm not sure he's doing his best to help his client*, Monica Goodling, the Justice Department’s White House liaison who, following his advice, refuses to testify before the Senate panel about her boss, Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales.
Because, as we saw before**, Dubya's Chief Torture Officer is being grilled on the removal of US attorneys.
According to Dowd, Goodling is afraid of being treated as a witness in a criminal inquiry.
According to me, she is s..t scared of being treated as yet another disposable White House scapegoat.
She knows what this mob is capable of. She knows the dark side of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And that Monica knows she may leave the place with stains on her dress, but of the bloody kind. Courtesy the President of the United States.
* I don't know who is the actual client there, but I've got an idea about who will pay in the end...
** see "George Pontius Pilate Bush lets Gonzales face justice - Red blogule to Our Dear Compassionate Leader" (20070315)
Because, as we saw before**, Dubya's Chief Torture Officer is being grilled on the removal of US attorneys.
According to Dowd, Goodling is afraid of being treated as a witness in a criminal inquiry.
According to me, she is s..t scared of being treated as yet another disposable White House scapegoat.
She knows what this mob is capable of. She knows the dark side of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And that Monica knows she may leave the place with stains on her dress, but of the bloody kind. Courtesy the President of the United States.
* I don't know who is the actual client there, but I've got an idea about who will pay in the end...
** see "George Pontius Pilate Bush lets Gonzales face justice - Red blogule to Our Dear Compassionate Leader" (20070315)
20070315
"Kurdistan, the other Iraq"... or "Kurdistan, the other other Vietnam" ?
Iraq's Kurdistan region opened, through the Kurdistan Development Corporation, a lobbying office in Washington, DC*. Headed by Qubad al-Talabani, son of Jalal Talabani, the President of Iraq as a whole (a black hole some may say), this unit officially promotes investments and tourism in the region. Autonomy and independance could be part of the discussions.
I do feel some sympathy for Kurds in general and I do wish them a peaceful future. Yet, I'm not so sure this is the way everybody wants it and even if Talabani were honest, other players would join the lobbying frenzy.
I remember the intense Iraqi lobbying between the two wars. Who could forget Ahmed Chalabi and his Iraqi National Congress ? Among the different approaches for the liberation of Iraq, US theocons deliberately favored the factions that were bound to cause maximum damage. The parting of Iraq and the strengthening of fundamentalists across the region (especially and Iran and Israel) was not only expected but planned from the start.
If I were a US fundamentalist, I surely wouldn't want a democratic and peaceful Kurdistan to emerge in the dead middle of my playground.
A failed proof of concept Kurdistan could not only strengthen radicals in Iran but also infuriate and exacerbate fundamentalists in Turkey. To the contrary, I would seize the opportunity to bring chaos in this relatively protected part of the country, and to exacerbate radicalism everywhere. I would especially infuriate Turkish nationalists and fundamentalists, because as anybody can see these days, the radicalization of Turkey is key to the revival of Christian fundamentalism in Europe.
Don't mistake this initiative as an attempt to put a lock on Kirkuk oil fields : the aim of the game is to get rid of secularism in Turkey.
* see CMD's "The "Other Iraq" Opens a DC Lobbying Office" (20070302)
I do feel some sympathy for Kurds in general and I do wish them a peaceful future. Yet, I'm not so sure this is the way everybody wants it and even if Talabani were honest, other players would join the lobbying frenzy.
I remember the intense Iraqi lobbying between the two wars. Who could forget Ahmed Chalabi and his Iraqi National Congress ? Among the different approaches for the liberation of Iraq, US theocons deliberately favored the factions that were bound to cause maximum damage. The parting of Iraq and the strengthening of fundamentalists across the region (especially and Iran and Israel) was not only expected but planned from the start.
If I were a US fundamentalist, I surely wouldn't want a democratic and peaceful Kurdistan to emerge in the dead middle of my playground.
A failed proof of concept Kurdistan could not only strengthen radicals in Iran but also infuriate and exacerbate fundamentalists in Turkey. To the contrary, I would seize the opportunity to bring chaos in this relatively protected part of the country, and to exacerbate radicalism everywhere. I would especially infuriate Turkish nationalists and fundamentalists, because as anybody can see these days, the radicalization of Turkey is key to the revival of Christian fundamentalism in Europe.
Don't mistake this initiative as an attempt to put a lock on Kirkuk oil fields : the aim of the game is to get rid of secularism in Turkey.
* see CMD's "The "Other Iraq" Opens a DC Lobbying Office" (20070302)
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