A clear democratic triumph for PARK Geun-hye, but who won the elections?

According to Mayans (solar calendar), the end of the world is for tomorrow, but in Korea (lunar calendar), MOON crashed yesterday.

Actually, MOON Jae-in never had the opportunity to take off*. AHN Cheol-soo did, but he blew it** (yeah, he eventually took off yesterday, but after casting his ballot, and at Incheon Airport, in a plane for the States).

So from the start, it's always been about PARK Geun-hye cruising towards a surprise-less win in a debate-free campaign against non-existent opponents.

Her victory is not a lackluster win, but a very clear democratic triumph. Yet I'm still wondering about who won the elections.



PGH's website this morning

Korean democracy chose an indisputable winner...

- a very strong turnout: 75.80%, the biggest since the 1997 clash between Kim Dae-jung and Lee Hoi-chang
- a clear majority: 51.6% vs 48.0% (NB: small candidates were really garden gnomes this time)
- reaching beyond the usual geographic divides: we didn't skip the traditional strongholds (MOON rocked Honam, scoring 86-89% in Jeolla and 91.97% in Gwangju, PARK claimed Yeongnam, with a 80.4% peak in Daegu), but color-wise, the map is very far from the 1997 or 2002 East v. West split, and much closer to LEE Myung-bak's 2007 landslide victory. MOON claimed Seoul back, but barely. PARK's victory seemed inevitable very early, when the first Sudogwon results showed her ahead in Incheon and Gyeonggi-do, and very close to MOON in the capital city. Note that Korean expats voted 56-42 in favor of MOON.
- and even beyond the expected generational divides: yes, seniors massively voted PARK, but she didn't fare that bad at the other end of the spectrum, with one third of the youngest voters. And who ruled in social networking? The seniors, who literally kakaotalked each other to a whopping 90% participation rate.
 

 

... but who won these elections?...

For international observers, the big news is a combination of two events: a woman becomes President of the Republic of Korea for the first time, and the Korean democracy elects the offspring of a former dictator.

But I don't think the key issue in Korea was gender, or a referendum for or against PARK Chung-hee. And of course, I know constitutional values were not "top of mind". To me, it was about fears, uncertainties, and change.

And conservatism won.

Everybody knew that the situation was bad, and that something needed to be done. Both candidates promised similar reforms (less power for chaebols, more welfare for the powerless), but both inspired doubts: PARK regarding the balance of powers, MOON because his party was not ready to govern. And even when voters projected themselves in a country ruled by their own champion, they felt uncertain for the future. Fear clearly prevailed over hope, and both MOON and PARK spent their time reassuring voters - at this little game, conservatism usually wins.

And PARK followed the script perfectly, positioning herself as a mother for all citizens, softening her stance on reforms (like: yes chaebols have too much power, but in time of crisis you cannot weaken the drivers of our economy). And as usual, she never gave the impression of speaking her own mind, always calculating her words, always speaking with the voice of the wary, risk-averse but confident ajumma.
 
So Koreans chose change without change, and the ruling party will keep ruling. But the official leader has really changed. LEE Myung-bak received a clear mandate for reforms, and he had credentials as a doer and a leader. PARK Geun-hye's more into backstage politics, and the only reforms she's carried out so far are rebranding her own party, replacing a few extra actors, and wishing very hard that corruption would stop***.

But PARK Geun-hye's been here forever, and everybody knows her story. She didn't chose to be the daughter of a dictator, and you can't expect a kid whose parents got murdered to grow into an adult like all others. She eventually distanced herself from her dad's regime, and she has no risks of favoring kids of her own since she doesn't have any. Bonus: unlike her predecessor, she (officially at least) doesn't run for any religious group. So why not give her a chance? Even if she only criticized her dad indirectly, reluctantly, and faintly. Even if, to this day, we still don't know what she truly thinks. Even if we can't tell if she's running her own show.

Yesterday, when her time to shine came, PARK Geun-hye somehow managed to dodge the call again. She certainly didn't deliver an inspiring acceptance speech: only a few word at her headquarters to announce that she'd go to Gwanghwamun... where she didn't take the stage but received a bouquet before answering a quick victory interview. KIM Yu-na style. The scene should have taken place in Seoul Plaza with the ice rink  in the background instead of King Sejong's statue.

So who stole the TV show yesterday? Gwanghwamun, CHUNG Mong-joon, and Anipang.

. Gwanghwamun? On her way back to Cheong Wa Dae, PARK left her Gangnam base to pause at party HQ, and ultimately Gwanghwamun, the gate to the main palace. All symbols of power were covered, but if anyone doubted it it's now official: Gwanghwamun has reclaimed its status as the ultimate symbol of power for Seoul and Korea. Special mention for King Sejong: his statue seemed to overpower the new president when she made her quick apparition, and his name has also become a political prize in itself (Sejong City, not yet a symbol of power, but the latest province-level, special self-governing city).

. CHUNG Mong-joon? Like King Sejong but sans the smile, he remained seated and silent all the time, yet his giant meditative face dominated the screen. PARK's short presence not even a distraction.

. Anipang? I didn't watch an election night on TV but a silly video game with a screen split between neat rows of Saenuri and DUP characters, and cute PARK and MOON animations reacting to the scores. And when I say "scores", it's just the plain, basic count of votes. The only humans you see are non-expert TV presenters announcing lists of results. Forget about analysis. Forget about pundits and spin rooms. Forget about exit polls telling differences in segments or motivations. It's just a stupid TV show, a countdown where the aim of the game is to guess at what time we have an official winner. I zapped through all the channels and they all did the same, competing only on their 3D animations. They all tried cute things, like that big giant teddy bear walking across Korea (straight from Tottoro), except SBS, which dared a weird concept, travelling through a derelict Korean village abandoned after a war, almost like a shoot'em up scene after all players are gone. Here's newsY's take at Moon discovering his score:




Now what?

In other words: we haven't seen nor learned anything so far. Neither during the campaign, nor afterwards.
 
And we have to give PARK Geun-hye the benefit of the doubt.
 
It's up to her (or to the people who drive the vehicle) to decide where to lead the nation, and what kind of final legacy she wants her family to leave.
 
Let's see how this blank page evolves.

And how history is being written. Including and particularly the past, in school textbooks. 

(originally published on Seoul Village as "The Anipang Election: PARK wins big, but who wins?")
(egalement sur blogules en V.F.: "De quoi PARK Geun-hye est-elle le nom?")


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!! and Twitter (@stephanemot, @blogules)
*  see "Time is up"
** see "Scratch that: Dynasty, Dallas, or the Twilight Zone?"
*** see "25 years later"
****  see "Saenuri, a brand "new" wor(l)d"

North Korea Watch - Fall-Winter Trends 2012-2013

So Kim The Third shot yet another missile, but this time an object actually reached orbit.

At this important stage, the most crucial question is: "how to sport binoculars correctly?" After years of investigation, we can tell for sure that there are basically three categories:

1) Fashion Laggards - They don't have a clue

Obviously, neither Kim Jong-un nor George W. Bush served in the military. Embarrassing for warmongers.

2) Trendsetters - They just get it right

Code yellow? Code red? Obama can strike a pose, vogue. Strategic patience required.

3) K-pop fads - Weak lyrics, expressive body language

Is Park Geun-hye looking towards a military past? Is Ahn Cheol-soo silenced by a mouthpiece? Does Moon Jae-in prefer to see them up close? And what to make of Lee Myung-bak? A Freudian analysis might reveal insecurity at some level. But I'm sure they've got pills for that at the Blue House...

blogules 2012
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Happy New Year 2014

For the 6th time in a row*, I can only wish you a happy next next year considering what's going to happen in 2013:

January 2013:

Barack Obama's second inauguration is held on the ruins of the US Capitol. The President's first decree prolongs Guantanamo for 9876 years, the term arsonist Grover Norquist will serve there.

February 2013:

Bashar al Assad eventually decides to use Weapons of Mass Destruction against the people of Syria, nominating Glenn Beck as Minister of Interior and Karl Rove as Minister of Information.

March 2013:

PSY's "Gangnam Style" video smashes the 8 billion views mark on YouTube. Floridan Democrats demand a recount.

April 2013:

To replace Supreme Justice Ruth Ginsburg, Joe Biden suggests Sarah Palin, saying that it could help solve the gridlock and find a way out of the Fiscal Abyss. The POTUS toys with the idea before refusing: "you don't kill two hummingbirds with one boulder, and her "gotcha justice" concept spells like bad karma".

May 2013:

Accused of cooking books (and not only the Qran), the Vatican is placed under Chapter 11, Verse 7. In other words: under the Republican Party umbrella ('Go to, let us go down, and there confound their language, that they may not understand one another's speech').

June 2013:

Kate Middleton gives birth to twin boys who, unfortunately, share their father's baldness, their grandfather's ears, and their great-grandmother's color blindness. 40 year later, they will fight to death over who got delivered first.

July 2013:

Croatia officially joins the European Union. And vice versa, since all other members have left. Turkey joins soon after claiming the organization of the 2020 Summer Olympics.

August 2013:

A small step for man, a Great Leap Forward for China. The nation celebrates its first moon landing by inviting America to play a go game there, starting with a big red stone crushing the US flag planted decades earlier.

September 2013:

Hurricane Christie slams the East Coast. The Capital city is moved to the West Virginian Islands.

October 2013:

Rush Limbaugh's impeccable fastbawl sends the Washington Dodgers to the World Series, but the team refuses to play the 99ers until they pledge to the same GOP pennant.

November 2013:

Eight hundred and seventy one bridges collapse across Japan on a sunny, tsunami-free, earthquake-free afternoon. Japan replaces its corrupt extreme-right Prime Minister with another corrupt extreme-right Prime Minister.

December 2013:

Hurricane Hillary lands in the Midwest, causing an early Iowa Caucussion.


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* see "Happy New Year 2010" (Jan 2009), "Happy New Year 2011" (Dec 2009), "Happy New Year 2012" (Dec 2010), "Happy New Year 2013" (Dec 2011)... and in French: "Bonne Année 2009" (Jan 2008), "Bonne Année 2010" (Dec 2008), "Bonne Année 2011" (Dec 2009), "Bonne Année 2012" (Dec 2010), "Bonne Année 2013" (Dec 2011), "Bonne Année 2014" (Dec 2012).

Forward. Hopefully, including for the GOP

There were elections in the US yesterday, as well as in the Banana Republic of Florida, where democracy impotency remains a preexisting condition (it would take more than a few hurricanes to turn this State upside down, but regime change could be a nice start):

Barack Obama won a race he simply couldn't lose against a soon to be forgotten man who simply had no business running for the top public servant job, or representing a divided party that completely lost its compass*. On Mitt Romney's face, I saw the same relief John McCain displayed four years earlier**. For the first time during the whole campaign, the former Governor of Massachusetts sounded sincere and looking forward the future. And his concession speech was the most graceful I've ever heard.

The race was close, but the outcome undisputable. The only world leader to survive the Big Depression could even afford creating some suspense by forgetting to campaign during the first debate. The faux pas probably cost him a much larger victory, and the most outrageous attempts to negate democracy in Florida might still deprive him from well deserved electoral votes.

Once again, the presumably model democracy failed: six billion dollars were spent on a divisive campaign, mindblogging frauds were revealed in several states (as usual, leaning towards the same party), and a handful of States received too much attention for the wrong reasons.

So we're back to square one: the Obamas in the White House (NB - make no mistake: Michelle Obama, the smartest one in this beautiful family, should be credited for this victory even more than her husband and the amazing campaign network), Democrats in the Senate, Republicans in the House, a fiscal cliff looming on the closest horizon, and the infamous Philly Busters back at bat. Barack even received the first 3 A.M. call: a Patriot (missile) act from Turkey.

But there are reasons to hope: Sandy made the voice of moderates get heared when hatemongering could have peaked, and US voters sent back home a few rotten apples (Richard Mourdoch, Tea Party lunatics...). Four years after conservative Proposition 8 passed in California, gay marriage gained ground in 3 states. Bonus (20121108 UPDATE): J Street candidates fared very well, succeeding in 70 of 71 races and confirming the pro-peace, pro-Israel alternative to AIPAC.

The "us vs them" mantra won't work anymore, and the United States of America are given a second chance with people like Barack Obama, Chris Christie, Michael Bloomberg, and who knows, even the John Boehner who reached a deal with the White House before conceding to his herratic base.

Hopefully, John Kerry shall become the best Secretary of State ever, Tim Geithner be replaced by someone who wants to reform Wall Street.

Most crucially: this time, the GOP has little choice but start reforming itself. Silencing radicals, for a start: neocons should be evicted with Cheney, theocons with Bush, Tea Party with a sound budget deal, hatemongers with the evidence of their efficiency as voter repellents. And every passing election makes racists and sexists even more irrelevant. The GOP will probably look for a younger candidate, more representative of the nation's diversity, and preferably more likely to convince the growing number of Independents who left a party gone crazy.

Bill Clinton, the man who triggered the Democratic reform two decades ago, gave it all during this campaign, paving the way for Hillary Clinton 2016. Let's hope he won't need too much Obamacare until then. Anyway, the time has already come to look for new faces there as well.



blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* see "Between balance and Ryan, Romney made his choice"
** see "The Maverick is free again"
***"Grand Old Parting: fix your party before causing more damage to your country"

Who do you want to lead America and the World?

The third presidential debate confirmed the second one: Barack Obama outclassed Mitt Romney on character as well as on issues, and body languages exposed clearly how the latter conceded to the former. The POTUS lost the first debate simply because he was not campaigning, just trying to reason with a chronic flip-flopper. The former Governor of Massachusetts showed again that he was not fit for the job, and not fit for the challenges of this millenium. Just good enough to adapt his speech to the audiences and circumstances, even if it means contradicting himself every single day.

It's a no brainer.

Yet, as incredible as it may seem, US voters are on the verge of sending this loser to the White House, and as the man in charge of defending their interests overseas. A man who already embarrassed himself not only in front of today's President, but for all the world to see in his first trip (indeed!) overseas as a candidate last summer.

Who do you want to lead America and the World?

MITT ROMNEY? A wannabe and a laughingstock. Inconsistent, weak on issues and vision. Stuck in the mid XXth century.	BARACK OBAMA? The World Leader. Consistent, strong on issues and vision. Already leads America into the IIIrd Millenium.
3 International highlights? - Apology Tour Summer 2012 (England, Poland) - "Saved" the Salt Lake City Olympics ($40M surplus) ... thanks to taxpayer money ($1,3 bn)! - Self-proclaimed "peace" candidate after 6 years of warmongering campaign (17 of his 24 foreign policy advisors worked for Bush-Cheney)	3 International highlights? - Restored America's honor and leadership worldwide - Ended the war in Iraq, set the agenda for Afghanistan - Got the Nobel Peace Prize AND Bin Laden

Go with the true leader, go FORWARD

 

 

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* see "Mitt's Kill Big Bird Moment" (debate 1), "Mitt Romney detonates himself, the fifth victim of the Benghazi attack" (debate 2)

Women are in binders, my friend

Women in binders, dogs tied to car rooftops, corporations treated like people... welcome to Mitt ROMNEY's dream America!

I'm Mitt Romney, and I approve this mess-up
blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!! and Twitter (@stephanemot, @blogules)

Mitt Romney detonates himself, the fifth victim of the Benghazi attack

Mitt Romney officially became the fifth casualty in the Benghazi attack, and he did that to himself in a defining moment of the presidential campaign.

This was not about who knew what when, nor even about winning an argument: the Republican candidate simply proved unfit for the job, and certainly not credible as a potential Commander in Chief. Barack Obama was not just "presidential", he was The President, the man in charge, a world leader strong on principles, doubtless about what he stands for, confident in his ability to cope and to deliver.

Romney blindly persisted in the very role he was asked to distance himself from: a partisan, non-presidential candidate, barking where national unity is required, positioning himself at a lower level than his rival, and ultimately losing face when moderator Candy Crowley delivered the independent verdict: I checked the facts, and the president is right on that one, you just lost the elections.

After the debate, I shortly switched to Fox News. Somebody obviously died in the family, they all looked like they were at a funeral. 

Only 20 tweets during the debate? I'm getting rusty

I presume the former BCG exec heard about the Peter Principle but today, he faced his own incompetence. And body languages spoke volumes: a 65 year old businessman without a vision for the future and without a clue about what public service means, facing a strong, consistent, wise world leader leagues above him.

From the start, Mitt Romney didn't seem on a good day: when he came forward to answer the first question, he did it a bit awkwardly, then he shot his rehearsed story too fast for it to seem natural. The former Governor fared better later in the debate, but remained mostly on the defensive, even on his supposedly own turf.

And this time, Barack Obama was there, and enjoying the debate.

Yes, again, he missed easy opportunities, juicy, low hanging fruits any trained debater would die for. Again, he wasn't the one who raised the 47% issue. And sticking to economics when it came to similarities between George W. Bush and W. Mitt Romney... how about values and contradictions, how about foreign policy? Obama won a Nobel Peace Prize, restored America's honor worldwide, and got Bin Laden. The overwhelming majority of Romney advisors on foreign policy worked for Bush-Cheney, and last summer, Romney himself almost provoked a war with England!

But Barack was there, back with his mojo, his bright eyes, his firm coolness.

And there was the defining moment when Romney detonated himself.

Who cares what happened before and after? Who cares if Romney persisted in his outrageous sales pitches? Who cares if Obama oopsed a "when I was President"? Who cares if the NRA supports Romney more than ever after that chat on gun control?

By the way: I must praise Candy Crowley for her choice of questions from the audience. Without her, this kind of critical issues would have been obliterated from the campaign.

There was a moment when I thought the moderator lost the control of the debate, and when both candidates where getting at each other at close range in an inaudible non-dialog, I was hoping she'd come up and say "hey kids, recess is over, back to work". But she eventually stood up and won the day.

Now back to work, indeed. Everybody. Barack Obama in the White House, where he belongs. Mitt Romney back to Bain and the Caymans, where he belongs. And the Republicans back to the drawing board, as far from the White House and the Congress as possible, where they belong until they - at long last*! - reform the GOP into a party fit to govern.


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!! and Twitter (@stephanemot, @blogules)

* see "Grand Old Parting: fix your party before causing more damage to your country"

---
(UPDATE) illustration: twitter posts during the debate  (@stephanemot)

Romney's crash course 101

Mitt Romney? Even more amazing than Felix Baumgartner: he managed to stop his free fall in the polls, and yet he keeps breaking the unsound barrier !

Red Bulls..t approves his message: "Who cares if the U.S. budget crashes? I've got my golden parachutes!"

Don't worry about Romney when he crashes. Do worry about the kind of Supreme Justices Paul Ryan would pick afterwards.


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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PS: say Barack, if Mitt dares raise the apology / foreign policy issues again at tonight's debate, remind him about his diplomatic fiasco last summer in Europe.

Mitt's Kill Big Bird Moment

Barack Obama is a nice guy. He debated with Mitt Romney like he would handle any topic: respecting the other party, focusing on solutions for the common good.

Today, the POTUS forgot he was in a Presidential debate, that the aim was not to convince Romney but to convince US voters. And while he focused on issues and sense, Mitt Romney was the only one campaigning, without opposition. Obama won the rational debate, Romney the political one, the one that matters.

And it doesn't matter if Obama talked more (don't expect the Jim Lehrer kind of debate animation from Candy Crowley). Romney was allowed to play his role of the day.

Doctor Mitt the debater destroyed all the arguments of Mister Romney the candidate because that's what voters want to hear, not his embarrassing - and theoretically off the record - briefs at fundraisers. Heck. Obama was almost happy to have for once a Republican on his side.



John and Jane Smith probably didn't notice the fact that Romney kept hammering what he wouldn't do as a President (the opposite of what he'd always said he would do until then), but never specified what he would do. What they heard what a well prepped candidate who tuned his voice to Reagan level, loaded his speech with encounters with actual human beings he met in his spin doctors' dreams, a man who seemed to know his priorities even if he used the same "that's number one" mantra for every issue.

I still don't have any clue about Romney's plan. Scratch that. Tie the dog to the car's rooftop, kill Big Bird, it's coming in slow motion, but I start seeing some pattern. Zoophobia?

Grey, tired, elsewhere, Obama didn't fight. And did Romney offer him occasions to get beaten? You betcha: when he said "high income people are doing fine", when he said he had no idea about overseas tax breaks, he the outsourcer, he of the accounts in 30 tax havens... un-be-lie-va-ble.



Who trained Obama for the debates? John Kerry played Mitt's role. I love this guy*, but precisely, as I was watching this debate, it seemed like Kerry-GWB redux, the sincere guy winning in substance, the fake one winning in image. The difference? Polls showed that Kerry won the debates, and here (according to a CNN flash poll before the usual spin room), Romney won not only very easily overall by two to one, but on every single issue.

Romney aides must be wetting their pants right now, and I hope independent voters won't get fooled again.

I cannot imagine the same scenario for Debate II. Barack Obama will have to show some teeth, and expose the Cayman behind Doctor Mitt.

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* again, what a speech at the 2012 DNC (see "Bubba Clinton rocks DNC 2012: GOP Unity My Ass!")

Video: "Mitt Romney Style", after PSY's Gangnam Style. If you know Seoul a bit, it can't get Gangnamier than this

"We almost didn't get off the ground", Mitt?

"So we started a new business called Bain Capital (…). We almost didn't get off the ground." - Mitt ROMNEY 2012 RNC

"We almost didn't get off the ground"?!? It's your "2 guys in a garage" start-up fable that doesn't fly, Mitt.

In the above picture: Raiders of the Lost Tax Returns

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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