Discussion - 3 challenges for Korea

(my answer to a question regarding the critical challenges Korea will face in the 10 years to come)

I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.

The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)

The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.

Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.

Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.

Rewriting history (reloaded) - IHT Letters To The Editor

Praise the International Herald Tribune. First for publishing another blogule of mine (even if slightly edited* to fit a wider audience than this utterly incorrect blog), second for giving it a title I've been mantrazing for a few years.

Actually, I mentioned "Rewriting History" in one of the few blogules published by "Le Figaro" before Sarkozy became Editor in Chief. Back then, I noticed the irony in the way Dubya compared himself to Roosevelt and Churchill ("Reecriture de l'Histoire - GW Bush le nouveau FDR ?" - 20040607).

I guess "rewriting history" could be considered today's international pastime on steroids.

Anyway... For those who missed my latest ranting on Abe** and/or reached their newstands to late, here is the letter as published in today's IHT*** :

Rewriting History
Your Dec. 16 edition delivered two rather disheartening insights on the way history is being taught.
In "Confronting Holocaust denial" (Views), Ayaan Ali Hirsi reveals how the Holocaust is not only absent from textbooks in many Muslim countries but also still considered a great idea by many young people.
In the news report "Japan passes measure for patriotic education," an education reform is not only meant to keep the Japanese people in the dark regarding the terrible war crimes committed during Hirohito's reign, but also to revive ultranationalism.
Perhaps worst of all: None of this comes as a surprise. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran is on a permanent revisionist road show, while Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan has already declared his nationalist views.
I wonder what tomorrow's textbooks will tell the next generations about our time? In this sick medieval revival, even the president of the United States and the pope want to replace science and reason by an ultraconservative caricature of religion.

* let's say I elaborated a bit on "declared his nationalist views"

** see "Red blogule to Shinzo Abe - another revisionist leader" (20060926), or the unedited blog spill in French preceding my letter to the IHT : "Blogule rouge a Shinzo Abe - l'Empire contre attaque" (20061216)

*** see iht.com/articles/2006/12/19/news/edlet.php (20061220)

Red blogule to Kim Jong-il and to the six party talks

Unsurprisingly, North Korea proceeded to its first nuclear trial. An underground fart worth 4.2 on Richter's scale. Just loud enough for people around to get the message without the poisonous stench. In the dead middle of key commitee meetings in China, right during Abe's first visit to South Korea, and a few days after the quasi-confirmation of Ban Ki-moon as the UN's next secretary-general.

Kim Jong-il is guilty. For maintaining his country in terror, absolute denial of liberty and basic human rights, for imposing starvation, torture, deportations and other sweets to a people brought back to the Middle Age under the rule of a totalitarian sect. For having no other goal than preserving his own liberty, whatever the consequences.

South Korea is guilty. For avoiding the touchy "human rights" topic in order not to hurt the feelings of its neighbor. For balking in front of a reunification that would cost thousands of times more than Germany's from an humanitarian as well as an economical, social and political point of view.

Russia is guilty. For exporting the Stalinian model in its most perverse version. For nurturing a monster in the middle of a region under American influence.

China is guilty. For not seizing the opportunity of Russia's collapse in order to cool Kim's regime down when it was the weakest. For strenghtening militarism instead of encouraging reforms. And of course for wanting a Korean reunification INSIDE China.

Japan is guilty. For doing everything in order to delay a reunification that would cast it away from the center of the New Far East. For sabotaging each and every progress in the six-party talks as efficiently as its American friends.

USA are guilty. For letting their hawkiest wings crush any opportunity or opening, for wanting the messiest degradation of the situation, for purposedly strenghtening Kim's regime in its most diabolical sides. For refusing bilateral talks and becoming the most negative player in these 6 party talks, even before Kim himself. For knowingly provoquing the nuclear crisis and eventually collecting a much awaited diversion right before the November 2006 elections : "hey lads, see what kind of mess we prevented by removing Saddam from power ? see what happens when you let the UN or the IAEA take care of the WMD proliferation control ?"

The UN is guilty indeed. For relying on the goodwill of the United States of America, China and Russia for any decision going beyond the purchase of staples for the 8th floor.

Let's hope last night's trials will lead to a positive opening. Just like India and Pakistan did before declaring PAT instead of CHESSMATE.