20190905

Ending the Trump-McConnell Era

Donald Trump is focusing on 4 priorities to secure his reelection:
  • delaying the upcoming downturn to after November 2020, even if it means destroying US competitiveness to achieve it 
  • building the new sections of the wall he promised, even if US taxpayers pay for it, and double if you consider the fact that he's taking on other budgets to do it (triple if you consider the fact that he's slashing security and military budgets). 
  • positioning Democrats as socialist extremists, even if some oblige by doing it by themselves (exhibit A: Bernie Sanders) 
  • preventing key demographics from voting, through classic voter suppression techniques (e.g. gerrymandering) as well as through his own trademark methods (e.g. turning politics into a disgusting circus, scaring minorities away with threats of ICE raids)

For the moment, DJT seems on a much better track than in 2016. The question is: this time, how much will he be allowed to compensate a likely loss in popular vote with help from the outside through hacking or election meddling?

Until the elections, he will get the opportunity to score some wins (the wall? USMCA? China?), but risks keep piling up (collateral loan obligations? China? House commissions? post-Mueller lawsuits? Jim Mattis?)...


On a more direct electoral front, Trump is facing a different Democratic field:
- the business-as-usual candidate isn't a clear leader anymore: Joe Biden's lagging too much behind Hillary Clinton in too many ways, except maybe in his miserable skills as a presidential candidate.
- the natural liberal candidate of 2016 seems to be at long last claiming the spot she abandoned to Sanders because Hillary decided to run again: Elizabeth Warren is an energizing candidate, and embodies change much more convincingly than Bernie, who in contrast looks like an old don Quixote great at barking at windmills, but unable to get them produce anything. Sanders still has the power to crash the party if he chooses to linger once more.
- Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg seem to settle for Veep positions, but a lot can happen until IA-NH. Warren-Buttigieg? Biden-Harris? Warren-Harris could kick some serious ass.

One good news for the Democrats: if defeating Trump remains the common goal, his impeachment is now on a dedicated track, and key issues look much better separated and visible. The POTUS doesn't need anyone to draw spotlights on immigration or climate change (great idea, to invite fellow G7 members to watch Hurricane Doral from the front seat next Summer), but Mitch McConnell has at last become a prime target on issues as critical as gun control or SCOTUS nominations (mass shooting or Ruth Bader Ginsburg health scares unfortunately coming as recurring reminders). 

It is essential to target the Trump-McConnell duo, because winning doesn't stop at the White House. You need to reclaim the Senate, and to restore some dignity there as well.


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Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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