20090727

Hillary won't run again. Unless...

Hillary Clinton swears she won't run again for president : "I have absolutely no belief, in my mind, that that will happen".

In her mind no, but in her heart, there's still that tiny little glimmer of hope.

HRC is 62, and BHO seems on his irresistible way to a second term, even if he fails miserably on Healthcare, the 1994 Clinton style.

2016 Hillary will probably be much fitter at 69-70 than 2008 John McCain, a 72 year-old Vietnam-and-skin-cancer survivor more or less losing his marbles. But a full throttle campaign, again ? Thanks, but no thanks.

Of course, there is the possibility of a "RFK moment"*, an unexpected opening for the top job... but my guess is that Hillary Clinton will settle for #2 with the help of her old(er) friend Joe Biden, who will turn 70 in 2012.

Joe has never hidden his respect for a person he himself would have picked as Obama's running mate. She would of course be at the top of his list should he have to select a Veep as the next POTUS.

I don't see Joe Biden running again. The risk of becoming a liability, the opportunity to leave office as a sound leader, and to be instrumental in the breaking of another glass ceiling... I'm sure he'll decline a second term as Vice-President.

Furthermore, Barack and Hillary have let Primary dust settle and would form the perfect 2012 ticket for America. This scenario, which already seemed obvious even as primaries raged, now definitely looks like the base case.


* see "
Dial Hillary for murder"

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