20120619

50+20 - Relearning Economics

You already know* how I consider this crisis:
- at the root, this is not a financial crisis but a crisis of finance, this is not an economic crisis but a crisis of economics
- past ideologies are not the solution, we need a sound, pragmatic approach, and a restoration of economics as it ought to be defined**: not the science of wealth, but the comprehension of a system or an activity, be it an individual, a society, a company, a living organism... Again, "we shall win over nowadays depression only by opening ourselves up to economy, not by trying to elude it because we forgot what it means for the future of this planet". Again, finance is a means, not an end. Again, no equation is relevant if it doesn't consider humans and the environment.

Of course, business and economics should be taught accordingly.

I wasn't surprised to see my old school ESSEC (the "think different" side in the Coca Cola - Pepsi war of French business schools) among the promoters of the "50+20" initiative (50plus20.org), which seeks the education and development of globally responsible leaders, the enablement of business organizations to serve the Common Good, and the transformation of business and the economy...

Can you spot Stephane, Heyonn and Don in this video aired at the 3rd Global Forum for Responsible Management Education on 15 June 2012? Tip: we were facing the sun and Inwangsan, with the Gyeongbokgung behind us (if you can't see the landmarks, we could enjoy the sun):



50+20 Agenda: Management Education for the World - Launch Video (720p).

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* see among other posts "
This is not a financial crisis", or in French: "Le stade ultime du libéralisme, c'est la négation du marché (le déni d'économie continue)", "Mondialisation : du "free market" au "fair market""...
** see "define: economy"

20120613

The Republic of Korea is under attack. From within.

After the shameful termination of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission Korea, and after the flabbergasting removal of history from school curriculum, yet another outrageous victory for revisionists in Korea: the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology gave in to a Creationist lobby, and made possible the publication of high school texbooks where examples of evolution have been removed.
This incredible story, "South Korea surrenders to creationist demands", was published earlier this month in Nature:



A special purpose vehicle of the Korea Association for Creation Research* (kacr.or.kr), the revisionist lobby which pulled the strings didn't try to masquerade behind an Intelligent-Design-like smokescreen: it's even named the Society for Textbook Revise! Note how STR's website (str.or.kr) apes its US creationist counterparts:



Letting Creationism, the very negation of science and education and one of the worst enemies of democracy, dictate the contents of textbooks is undoubtedly the most profound disgrace imaginable for any Ministry of Education.

But here in Korea, that's the ultimate abomination.

This is Korea, the country of King Sejong, a wise statesmen who advocated education and science.

This is Korea, a country victim of revisionist texbooks in Japan, where the extreme right, though very small in members, has considerable power over national politics and manages to keep the whole population in the dark regarding the country's troubled past.

Once again**, it seems that Korea is under attack from its worst enemies, the ones from within. A minority of extremists who dream of copying the Japanese "model" and to rule over the past and the future of the country.

And once again, these impostors are not nationalists: they want the destruction of Korea as a republic and as a democracy, and they are the best allies of the impostors who, in Japan or in China, multiply the same kind of provocations to fuel mutual hatred and extremism across the region.

Across the aisle, true Korean nationalists, true partisans of democracy and of the republic must defend the nation against the impostors who try to destroy it: expose and condemn their impostures, prevent revisionist textbooks from being published, and restore the values that make Korea a great country.

Wake up Korea!

blogules 2012 (initially published on SeoulVillage: "State-condoned creationism in Korea? A cold-blooded murder against King Sejong")
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* Of course, "creation" and "research" are antinomic, but precisely, the whole concept of creationism is an insult to science and education. If believing in a creator is perfectly respectable, "Creationism" is pure forgery, an imposture that has nothing to do with science, and even nothing to do with religion: the agenda is political and ultimately, it's about replacing democracy with theocracy, and about replacing religion with fundamentalism.
** They seem to grow bolder by the day, and the multiplication of such provocations (see recently MBC's xenophobic video - "Still no apology from MBC, and more provocations on the Chinese front") is probably not a coincidence in this election year.

20120507

France refuses to change

Well. Now that Nicolas Sarkozy is out of the picture, will the actual political debate start? You know, the kind with real bits of genuine ideas, ideology-free?

Let's face it: we'll have to wait some more, and probably far beyond the upcoming legislative elections. Which shall be, like the presidential elections, handed on a plate by the incumbent to the opposition because in his political suicide, Sarkozy erected an inextricable triangle between amoral populists (UMP leader Jean-Francois Cope, a Sarko mini-me), moderate reformers (former PMs Francois Fillon and Alain Juppe), and the extreme right (Marine Le Pen's Front National).

By "political suicide", I'm not refering to Sarkozy's shameless courting of Le Pen's voters, but to the very fact that this Hyper-Hype President decided to seek a second mandate, ultimate proof that the man totally lacks historical vision and distance with himself. As I forecast the very evening of his election in 2007*, Sarkozy had been awarded a very clear mandate to reform, but would risk everything should he ever try to betray the Republic by undermining its pilars (particularly secularism, and the balance of powers - executive, legislative, judiciary, media...).

The "surprise" lies in the narrowness of the score** which, combined to a massive total of blank votes, confirmed that the republican sanction against Nicolas Sarkozy was not at all coupled with a massive adhesion to Francois Hollande or to his program. In spite of the record unpopularity of his opponent, Hollande barely fulfilled the only promise he could keep: to replace Sarkozy. Should he fail to win a large legislative majority in spite of the above mentioned 'political triangles', "Flanby" would fully deserve his nickname: a brand of sweet, soft, boneless pudding, promoted to the top job simply because it happened to be there when DSK and Sarkozy committed suicide.

Anyway, by opting for a run off between two promises of denial and 'fuite en avant', the French had already decided two weeks ago to procrastinate, to refuse the debate, to refuse change. Alternation without the courage of reforming, that's cowardness, that's the non-choice, not casting a blank vote. Full disclosure: I voted for change and reforms within the Republic in the first round (Francois Bayrou), and for change and reforms within the Republic in the second round (blank vote = blank page for the future winner, who will end up facing reality and rewriting his program / BTW just like she doesn't own France, Marine Le Pen doesn't own the blank vote).

Beyond France, both leading parties are also condemned to reform themselves, and the earlier the better. Nicolas Sarkozy managed to destroy the UMP the very same way George W. Bush did with the Republican Party***, and even if they manage to get rid of 'mini-me' Cope, center-right moderates probably won't have time to sort things out before the legislative elections. Even if its 'champion' won, the French Socialist Party remains an embarrassing anachronism refusing to evolve towards a modern socio-democracy, refusing to purge itself ideologically, refusing to accept that the 'French model' must adapt to survive, refusing to consider 'solutions' that are not demagogic and not ideologically driven, refusing to consider welfare policies that are not undermining welfare state as a whole. Marine Le Pen might be the first one to officially reform her party, but make no mistake: the Front National will only rename itself to fool more people into distancing themselves from democratic and republican values.

Denial can help you win elections, but Greece show us the economical, political, and social future of democracies that stick to the self-destructive dynamics of a system based on "reformless alternation".

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* see "2012 Presidential Elections in France - It's not the economy, stupid", and in French "Traitre à la nation", "Sarko triomphe - Blogule blanc aux reformes"
** FH 51.6%, NS 48.4% (or FH 48.5%, NS 45.6%, blank 5.8%)
*** see "GOP: time to split"

20120421

Inhuman, all too human Seoul (an essay)

En Francais dans le texte: "If Paris were a recurring hero in series of novels, Seoul would rather be a shapeshifting character, always mutating between two short stories. This might be the very definition of a city: a work of fiction - utterly real, but always escaping its authors".

Ever the lazy one, I won't translate more from my essay - in French - on urbanism in Seoul: "Inhuman, all too human Seoul". Atelier des Cahiers published it ("
Seoul: inhumaine, trop humaine") ahead of Monday's roundtable on "Seoul Ville Reelle, Ville Revee" (6 PM at Cafe des Arts - see event details on Facebook).


"
Seoul: inhumaine, trop humaine": mon essai sur la ville est en ligne sur l'Atelier des Cahiers. Un peu de non-fiction pour faire un break pendant la campagne electorale. Votez bien dimanche, et si vous etes sur Seoul lundi, ne manquez pas la table ronde sur "Seoul Ville Reelle, Ville Revee" (au Cafe des Arts a 18h - voir details sur Facebook).

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!

20120416

I, RomnBot (Meet Mitt)

Another exclusive interview from our Agence Fausse Presse: former Massachusetts Governor Willard Mitt Romney.

Blogules: "Thank you for having us today, Governor. Wow. What a great smile."

Mitt Romney: "You know, I'm 65, but I look 55, and soon I'll be 45. The 45th POTUS, that is. I found out the best way of keeping fit was to spend time and money."

-"As long as it's just my time and your money, I can join you for a little while... Did you expect the primaries to last that long?"

-"First, they're far from over: Rick has left the race, but Newt and Ron will keep piling up as many delegates as they can until the Convention, and even as we speak, voters are casting ballots for Herman Cain. Second, from the start, these primaries were meant to last, and the Republican Party optimized the process to make the show as entertaining as Obama-Clinton '08."

-"It sure has been entertaining, but instead of building momentum around the best Presidential candidates, your show is exposing on prime time a bunch of morons struggling for the survival of the most unfit for the job."

-"Precisely. It was meant as a clear religious statement."

-"Uh. I said 'morons', not 'mormons'."

-"I know you said that. I was referring to the "survival of the most unfit" part: we're finally proving Darwin wrong. Actually, our primary process is so smart it should be considered a perfect example of intelligent design."

-"I see you're already shamelessly hustling up creationists... But you do believe in the survival of the fittest, don't you? You, ever the good capitalist..."

-"Yeah, yeah, Romney's the name, money the game. But it's not a matter of fitness. Only a question of timing. Of understanding the music of money."

-"And what kind of music would that be?"

-"I don't give a grand. What matters is the timing, the moment when the music stops, just like when you play musical chairs. The aim of the game is to pass the buck before that moment, to get rid of all the junk, to collect the $200 M, to build a hotel in the Caymans, and never, ever, to go to jail. That's where all the Mormons go."

-"The morons. Morons belong to prisons. You said 'Mormons'."

-"I know I said that. Morons go to jail, but we Mormons do have a thing for the Cayman Islands. Salt Lake City is so far from everywhere anyway, and it's so quick with our private jets. Since we have three Beechcraft‎s, four Cessnas, two UTCs, five Lockheed Martins, and a couple of Boeings, I don't need to pass by home after work to pick up Ann and the kids. Each one brings their own set of Vuitton trunks, and I take care of the dog. Strapped to the roof, as usual."

-"To the roof of the jet as well?!?"

-"Seamus always relieves himself during takeoff. I never even considered bringing him in."

-"May I ask something: have you ever considered trying to be likeable?"

-"Look. I'm trying to be electable, and that's already something difficult for me. Not running risks, maintaining Chinese walls, keeping emotions out of the scope, milking the cow... That's the way I like it."

-"Indeed, you never quite left the BCG... And by the way, you must be toying with matrices and consulting a lot for the future Veep. Any hint regarding your running mate?"

-"The vetting has started, yes."

-"Let me guess... You need someone to compensate your weak points: a Republican identified as such by all sub-currents of your nuthouse, preferably an icon for fundies and Tea Partiers, a woman, with charisma, some sense of humor, an aversion for boredom, and an open bar at Fox News. But I don't see Sarah Palin don a white shirt and a black necktie to promote the Book of Mitt at your side. And she won't help for key demographics..."

-"Sarah refused: she's planning a coup for the Convention. Susana Martinez would do a perfect Biden-buster, but she used to be a Democrat."

-"So did Reagan."

-"Yeah, but I'm already OK with Reaganians. The thing is, I have to cope with various breeds of loonies who want me to marry Marco Rubio, or to have some kind of zealot one Huckabeat away from Presidency... I'd feel so more comfortable with a running mate as boring as Paul Ryan."

-"Another 'moderate' on the Gingrich-Limbaugh scale..."

-"I'm not a moderate. I'd think and say whatever you'd like me to think and say to win that race. I've been programmed to win races."

-"Sometimes, you almost sound like a robot."

-"Because I am a robot. I wasn't built in Motor City by accident. And I wanted GM and co to file for bankruptcy in order to get all the patents for a song. Picture that: an armitt of Romneys roaming the World. Without any purpose whatsoever."

-"Except, maybe, to convert everybody to Moronism?"

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your
blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!

20120408

Tokyo's Un-Patriot Act

It's cherry blossom season in Japan, and saber rattling season in North Korea. So the Japanese Government decided to deploy Patriot Missiles in the (not yet) dead middle of Tokyo. Beautiful photo ops for media from across the world: dark, bulky death machines with delicate, georgeous sakura patches in the background.

Of course, the message is not to KIM Jong-un ("we'll destroy your missile if it flies over Tokyo"*), but to Japan's die hard bureaucrats: "please keep our government afloat".

First, I don't think Japanese leaders flunked all geography exams. Tokyo lies near the East Coast, and if North Koreans really plan to fire over Japan, they certainly won't do it Westwards (unless they're looking for a record breaking range / a potential sepukku). So if Japans really wants to prevent the missile from entering its air space, it must shoot long before it flies over Tokyo.

Second, this photo op is pure political porn for the Japanese extreme right: a caricature celebrating the rebirth of the Empire as a military superpower, and the very negation of Japan as a peaceful nation.

If there were countless other ways for a democracy to show its resolve against provocations from Pyeongyang, Yoshihiko Noda couldn't have signed a better pledge of allegiance to the worst enemies of Japan**: the ones from within.

blogules 2012 - previously published on Seoul Village ("Tokyo Sakura With Patriot Missiles (A Still Life)")
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!

* we recently mentioned the issue (see "NK and nukes: back to the (dolsot curling) stone age?"). KIM The Third wants to celebrate KIM The First's Centennial (KIM Il-sung was born on April 15th, 1912, but the pyrotechnic show could be planned for the 12th).

** see previous posts about this dangerous clique

20120323

Mobile Virtual Nuclear Operators

As expected, North Korea set the agenda ahead of the 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit (see focus on Seoul Village), this time by announcing for April a 'satellite' launch in the general direction of (Japan, thank Kim The Third for small mercies) the East China Sea.

Shooting Southwards doesn't make sense if you want to optimize a satellite launch and leverage the Earth's rotation, or in the case of North Korea, if you want to minimize the risks of casualties, but of course, that's not the aim of the game. And speaking of games: sweeping such a big fat "dolsot" curling stone all the way down to the hottest spot of contention between Korea and Japan*... my oh my, what a smart way of piggybacking international conflicts! You know, like a M-VNO entering a market without rolling out its own wireless network? These guys are inventing low cost dictatorship!

As is often the case, this latest crisis can be interpreted as the North Korean idea of a private joke between what passes for the executive power there and the local army (I know, these days, distinguishing one from the other is the equivalent of a hairsplitting contest in a Buddhist monastery, particularly now that Kim Elvis has met his maker - not Kim Il-sung, the other one, if he?she?it? exists). The message? In a nutshell: swallow this bitter pill, willya? In extenso: Okaaay guys, we just reached an agreement with the Evil Empire of the United Rogue States of America about our nuclear activities, but look: we just needed the suckers to send us some more bags of rice for you, because there's only you in our lives - "Army first", remember? And to make sure we want to follow your "Juche Line"**, we'll make both the "Sunshine Line" and the "Beijing Line" angry by shooting our rocket (oops, 'launching our satellite') toward the East China Sea – heck, while we're at it, we could even crash Taiwan's party as well...

... Where was I?

In Gwonnong-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul, of course. This very morning. At the top floor of GCS International Building, enjoying a glorious view on Changdeokgung (to my left), and Jongmyo (to my right). What better location for a seminar on North Korean nukes than the headquarters of a peace-oriented NGO (GCS), with a view on two key symbols of power in 'Joseon' times: in peace and harmony on one side, with the deceased on the other...***

With so much at stake, we have no choice but to try and be cautiously optimistic. And to keep humor alive. As Woody Allen put it during his intensive training of Kim Jong-un: "More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly".

Among today's panelists, John E. ENDICOTT (President, Woosong University) was the closest to experience a near-death 'Dr Strangelove' situation: this US Air Force veteran told us how, at the peak of the Cuban missile crisis, he ended up in a bunker with the top brass announcing that doom was likely to be ignited in 20 minutes...

In these really tricky times, I'm looking forward to Obama's visit of the DMZ, a potential 'jeoneun Hanguk saram imnida' / 'Mr Kim, tear down that wall' moment. Not a game changer, but a simple message: the time of reconciliation will eventually come, and the sooner the better, but it takes a dialog between both Korean halves, starting right now.

Last year, South Korea was reconsidering its own tough-cop approach, which proved rather counter-productive... except maybe from the Chinese point of view (see "
Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"). Today, our panelists were more interested in how far the North was ready to engage in collaboration.

Hosted by GCS International, this Asia Institute Seminar focused on "Revisiting Nuclear Safety and Nuclear Security in North Korea"****. Hard to expect full collaboration and transparency from the most secretive country on the touchiest of materials, with a nuclear industry globally in damage control mode ever since the tsunami hit the fan in Fukushima, and days after South Korea unveiled an embarrassing cover-up following an incident in its own nuclear facilities (see "
Twelve Minutes in Bballi-Bballiland"). And Sharon SQUASSONI, an expert in proliferation prevention who's visited the North several times, thinks that North Koreans themselves may be a bit too confident about how much they know about their own level of security.

You'd think the collaboration between Japan and its neighbors would have improved after last year's fiasco but it turns out that no, little or no progress has been made, and communication is already poor within an archipelago technically cut in two (electricity itself cannot circulate between West - 60 Hz - and East - 50 Hz!), and where private operators are not compelled to disclose key indicators as is the case in the US. If even close and friendly neighbors don't trust each other, no wonder the general public show doubt and defiance toward governments and the nuclear industry in general. Former Minister of the Environment KIM Myung-ja stressed the power of activists and the need for transparency.

After the Daichi mess, daily measurements of radioactivity from the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety brought much needed clarity to the debate and today, I welcomed the precious insights from their principal researcher: a technical expert with a sound approach of the human and cultural factors, Dr KIM Sok-chul underlined the differences between security and safety, or between the perception of events, their comprehension, and their prevention. He also revealed that the risk of human errors was maximal with knowledge based behaviors (compared to ruled based or skilled based systems). The same could be said about finance and neural scoring systems but enough scary stories for today.

Actually, this very gloomy period could prove rich in opportunities. Instead of the usual blame game and finger pointing at one rogue state, both Koreas, China, and Japan could humbly seat at the same table with a simple task: we're all in this together, as neighbors and fellow (at least) civil nuclear powers, and we are all facing criticisms for various reasons. Let's share about it, and find ways to be more efficient for the next emergency. To make it simpler, let's keep Russia and the US out of this*****. We won't judge each other, just make sure we handle things better than last year. Maybe, as trust and confidence grows, we'll share more information, but let's start this with modest yet vital objectives.

Since the audience was rather small, everybody could chime in, so I suggested this sort of a NEAR (North East Asia Response) task force. Earlier, Scott SNYDER, who deplored the US failure to prevent vertical proliferation, had proposed a more direct offer to North Korea: you want to launch a satellite? Great: we can do it for you, and safely. Of course they'll refuse (it's all about controlling the propeller, and not for satellites), but bringing the discussions to new planes may work better than - say - Sergey Labrov's basic reset button.

blogules 2012 - initially published on Seoul Village ("NK and nukes: back to the (dolsot curling) stone age?")
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!

* see "Ieodo: I smell a fish", or the controversial construction of a US Navy base at the Southwestern tip of Jeju-do. FYI: in Korea, 'dolsot' dishes are usually served in stone bowls heated directly on charcoal.

** if you're a bit lost with the different characters, see the previous episodes of our NK drama, including "
Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"

*** Jongmyo and Changdeokgung are two beautiful, adjacent, UNESCO listed sites in central Seoul, built by the Joseon dynasty that founded the capital and ruled until the Japanese occupation. Note that neither North Koreans nor South Koreans call the country 'Korea': the former use "Joseon", the latter "Hanguk" (the nation of the Han people).

**** "Revisiting Nuclear Safety and Nuclear Security in North Korea" (Asia Institute Seminar) 2012/03/22:
- Introduction: CHO Cheol-je (Secretary General, GCS International)
- Opening remarks: John E. ENDICOTT (President, Woosong University)
- Panelists: Sharon SQUASSONI (Director, Proliferation Prevention Program, CSIS), Scott A. SNYDER (Senior Fellow for Korea Studies, Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy, Council on Foreign Relations), KIM Sok-chul (Principal Researcher, Head, Radiological Emergency and Security Preparedness Department, KINS - Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety), KIM Myung-ja (Chairwoman, Green 21 Forum / Former Minister of the Environment)
- Moderator: Emanuel PASTREICH (Director, The Asia Institute / Professor, Humanitas College, Kyung Hee University)
On the picture, left to right: Ms. KIM, Mr. KIM, Ms. SQUASSONI, Mr. SNYDER

***** anyway, as Dr KIM pointed out, 20 years from now, 50% of the world's nuclear reactors will be located in the region.

20120214

Deja vu all over again

It never fails: election year in the US, fear feeding frenzy between ultraconservatives from DC, Tel Aviv, and Tehran.

This time, warmongers from all sides share a common target: Barack Obama. And clearly, "44" has more to fear from them than from Romney or Santorum. Among the usual suspects:

- Khamenei and Ahmadinejad clearly remember this guy who, as soon as he took over the White House, adressed the Iranian people for Nowruz*. The message got through, and if the regime crushed the first non-Palestinian uprising in the region, it lost for good whatever was left of its credibility at home**.

- Four years ago, Tel Aviv hawks perfectly seized the Bush-Obama transition, launching an infamous attack on Gaza to secure a crucial vote on February 2009, before putting out the fire with more gazoline***. With Netanyahu back, and all moderates eradicated from the national debate, these guys managed to survive the Arab Spring, deliberately playing it as a threat instead of embracing the opportunity. They are not likely to release the pressure now, and will give all the support the AIPAC needs to keep the upper hand over J Street in the vetting of candidates (beyond the White House, the Congress remains key).

- At home, Obama still has to cope with a minority of dangerous fanatics who badly want a war between Israel and Iran because it's supposed to bring back their Messiah****, but at least they don't control the Oval Office anymore. Of course, the usual Cassandra crew keeps lobbying and forging a case with smoking guns and nuclear mushrooms, but what they want is to secure fat budgets for defence contractors, not necessarily a real war. The people I fear most are the likes of Frank Carlucci, Donald Rumsfeld, or Paul Wolfowitz: amoral thugs who'd do anything to turn the tables, even if it means the humiliation of the United States of the loss of thousands of lives. Preferably when a Carter or an Obama is in office, but the trick also works when it comes to maintaining a friend in power (guess whom).

Okay. When boys start playing with a certain kind of toys and matches, things can go really bad, but they may not need to go all the way. A well timed second dip could sink Barack Obama more efficiently than a torpedo. And if you need a quick fix, ye ole oil crisis easy does it. Not very original, I know, but these guys are more often into creationism than into creativity.

One thing's for sure: we'll never run out of bad guys for this kind of show.


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your
blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!


*as well as Israeli leaders (
Beyond the Iranian people, Obama is addressing Israel)
**"
Khamenei's death wish"
***"
Bush's Farewell : Mission Accomplished... as Fundamentalist in Chief", "Netanyahu's al Aqsa intifada"
Iran : who wants war and why

20120207

2012 Presidential Elections in France - It's not the economy, stupid

In 2011, America discovered that helping a young democracy could result in a new theocracy. France tried that too, back in 1776, and as of today, the result is still unclear: the President of the United States pledges allegiance on a Bible, finishing with a vibrant "so help me God", and he would never dare ending a speech without godblessamericaing the audience urbi et orbi, for fear of being considered Un-Amerikan. In this presumably model democracy, all Greenbacks are tagged with the words "in God we trust", Satanists are better considered than atheists because at least they believe in fallen angels, and self-proclaimed 'republicans' would rather be represented by a Christian ayatollah (Santorum) than a moderate Mormon (Romney).

Technically, mixing religion with politics is not compatible with democratic and republican ideals, and I already explained how, in France, putting secularism at the core of the Constitution was meant to secure both democracy and the freedom of religion, and how that fragile balance was undermined as Nicolas Sarkozy followed George W. Bush's dangerous path (see "
France, secularism and burqa : a political issue, not a religious one").

Of course, the French democracy was threatened long before Bush or Sarko came to power. And the 'laicite' and 'egalite' dogmas didn't succeed in a truly multicultural / multicultual society.

Anyway. Back in 2007, I voted Sarkozy because France needed reforms, and only he could deliver. I didn't trust the man, but somehow counted on the vast majority of UMP lawmakers to prevent him from breaking his very formal pledge to respect the French brand of secularism. Of course, Sarkozy implemented only a small part of the necessary reforms, and broke his pledge. He followed Bush's missteps to the tiniest detail, undermining the delicate balance of powers at all levels (executive, legislative, justice, media, religion...).

I can't imagine how low the French economy would have dived had Segolene Royal won the 2007 elections, but we would probably be very glad to maintain double A ratings. Yet unlike most his European counterparts who got the pink slip following the (first) depression, Sarkozy will not be judged by the economy: he simply cannot be re-elected because he betrayed the nation.

His main rival, Francois Hollande, also happens to be an impostor. He even received a boost from Sarkozy, who believed he could play the same trick as in 2007: I have my friends in the media push a weak and hollow candidate (then Hollande companion Segolene Royal), I vampirize the extreme-right with preemptive strikes in the no-man's land between 'law and order' and outright fascism, and I leverage my reputation as a doer.

Hollande is not as weak and hollow as he seems to be: he shares some of the key 'qualities' that helped his model, Francois Mitterrand, reach the top... only not the qualities leftist voters wished he had. And unsurprisingly, the worst enemy of Hollande happens to be Mitterrand's archrival Michel Rocard.

Traditionally, the French have their hearts on their left, but their wallets on their right, so they tend to vote for a center-right candidate. Fourty years ago, Mitterrand, a conservative with an ambiguous Vichy background, highjacked the Socialist party and managed to build an artificial platform where the Communists brought the votes needed to claim the Elysee Palace. Rocard, the reformer who dreamt of transforming a patchworked party into a modern social democrat powerhouse, was sidelined before witnessing, helplessly, his side fail miserably each time it claimed victory (most notably: ill timed, ideology driven 'reforms' in the early eighties or late nineties).

Holland lacks experience in governments, but he already proved his inability and unwillingness to reform the Socialist Party when he was Secretary General. Worse, instead of seizing the momentum when he finally was chosen as the party champion, he opted for yet another impossible consensus. Needless to say, his majority is bound to fail.

So the choice for those 2012 elections is clear: continuity, alternation, or change.
- Continuity means Nicolas Sarkozy and a moral collapse.
- Alternation means Francois Hollande and a deeper decline for French economy and politics.
- Change means either Marine Le Pen and the Front National, a French Revolution for the worse, or Francois Bayrou and the MoDem, a bet on the ability to build a national alliance government with moderate reformers from both sides.

Back in 2007, I hesitated between Bayrou and Sarkozy: the former would have made a good and fair president, but he didn't have the capacity to reform. Now France could be ready for a less partisan approach. Furthermore, a Bayrou victory would necessarily lead to the much needed reforms of both the Parti Socialiste and the UMP. The PS remains one of the few dinosaurs sticking to XIXth century politics, and the UMP needs to discard un-republican (no cap letter, please) elements from its platform.

The worse is that even top members from both leading parties are not enthusiastic about their own champions:
- socialist 'elephants' know Hollande is a fake but the right has never been that weak ahead of a Presidential election (even the Senate sports a socialist 'pink'), and nice positions are up for grabs in the government
- UMP leaders know Sarko doesn't stand a chance, and they already prepare for 2017 and the ineluctable failure of Hollande. Francois Fillon plans to conquer Paris and to capitalize on a strong performance as PM, while Jean-Francois Cope shamelessly carves himself into a Sarkozy mini-me.

Compared to Nicolas Sarkozy's, Barack Obama's reelection bid almost looks like a stroll in the park: both performed relatively well on the economic front, but the POTUS can put much more blame on the opposition, including during his tenure (after the 'sound economy of 2008', last year's budget mess...), and the Republican Party is even more divided, ideologically crippled, inconsistent, and unfit to govern than the French Socialist Party.


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your
blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!

20120202

Facebook's Initial Private Offering

Dear Friends and Neighbors,

My Wall and Wall Street are about to become an item: we're all going public, and you'll have to issue a profit warning each time I unlike you nth kitten picture.

Yet Facebook Initial Public Offering remains a non-event: Facebook has been milking our relationship from the beginning, and even with his 11M+ friends, Mark Zuckerberg has never been much of a philanthropist. The question was "when", and the answer is "now".

Now the other question remains: until when?

It doesn't have to come from the next big thing (a 4D, 5G meshroom cloud? the SOPAtriot Act?): remaining at the top happens to be difficult, even for a free, pervasive platform. And even a 800 pound gorilla can get off your back (I recently mentioned the potential Tripodization of Facebook: "Cloud Portability"). Furthermore, money won't do you much good without a vision. Look at Rupert Murdoch, who after losing over half a billion bucks on MySpace, delivers his pearls of conservative wisdom* for free over Twitter. And speaking of doing good: Google started being evil after its IPO...

... Come to think of it: Zuck started as a bad guy.

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!

*if such a thing exists.
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