20120323

Mobile Virtual Nuclear Operators

As expected, North Korea set the agenda ahead of the 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit (see focus on Seoul Village), this time by announcing for April a 'satellite' launch in the general direction of (Japan, thank Kim The Third for small mercies) the East China Sea.

Shooting Southwards doesn't make sense if you want to optimize a satellite launch and leverage the Earth's rotation, or in the case of North Korea, if you want to minimize the risks of casualties, but of course, that's not the aim of the game. And speaking of games: sweeping such a big fat "dolsot" curling stone all the way down to the hottest spot of contention between Korea and Japan*... my oh my, what a smart way of piggybacking international conflicts! You know, like a M-VNO entering a market without rolling out its own wireless network? These guys are inventing low cost dictatorship!

As is often the case, this latest crisis can be interpreted as the North Korean idea of a private joke between what passes for the executive power there and the local army (I know, these days, distinguishing one from the other is the equivalent of a hairsplitting contest in a Buddhist monastery, particularly now that Kim Elvis has met his maker - not Kim Il-sung, the other one, if he?she?it? exists). The message? In a nutshell: swallow this bitter pill, willya? In extenso: Okaaay guys, we just reached an agreement with the Evil Empire of the United Rogue States of America about our nuclear activities, but look: we just needed the suckers to send us some more bags of rice for you, because there's only you in our lives - "Army first", remember? And to make sure we want to follow your "Juche Line"**, we'll make both the "Sunshine Line" and the "Beijing Line" angry by shooting our rocket (oops, 'launching our satellite') toward the East China Sea – heck, while we're at it, we could even crash Taiwan's party as well...

... Where was I?

In Gwonnong-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul, of course. This very morning. At the top floor of GCS International Building, enjoying a glorious view on Changdeokgung (to my left), and Jongmyo (to my right). What better location for a seminar on North Korean nukes than the headquarters of a peace-oriented NGO (GCS), with a view on two key symbols of power in 'Joseon' times: in peace and harmony on one side, with the deceased on the other...***

With so much at stake, we have no choice but to try and be cautiously optimistic. And to keep humor alive. As Woody Allen put it during his intensive training of Kim Jong-un: "More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly".

Among today's panelists, John E. ENDICOTT (President, Woosong University) was the closest to experience a near-death 'Dr Strangelove' situation: this US Air Force veteran told us how, at the peak of the Cuban missile crisis, he ended up in a bunker with the top brass announcing that doom was likely to be ignited in 20 minutes...

In these really tricky times, I'm looking forward to Obama's visit of the DMZ, a potential 'jeoneun Hanguk saram imnida' / 'Mr Kim, tear down that wall' moment. Not a game changer, but a simple message: the time of reconciliation will eventually come, and the sooner the better, but it takes a dialog between both Korean halves, starting right now.

Last year, South Korea was reconsidering its own tough-cop approach, which proved rather counter-productive... except maybe from the Chinese point of view (see "
Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"). Today, our panelists were more interested in how far the North was ready to engage in collaboration.

Hosted by GCS International, this Asia Institute Seminar focused on "Revisiting Nuclear Safety and Nuclear Security in North Korea"****. Hard to expect full collaboration and transparency from the most secretive country on the touchiest of materials, with a nuclear industry globally in damage control mode ever since the tsunami hit the fan in Fukushima, and days after South Korea unveiled an embarrassing cover-up following an incident in its own nuclear facilities (see "
Twelve Minutes in Bballi-Bballiland"). And Sharon SQUASSONI, an expert in proliferation prevention who's visited the North several times, thinks that North Koreans themselves may be a bit too confident about how much they know about their own level of security.

You'd think the collaboration between Japan and its neighbors would have improved after last year's fiasco but it turns out that no, little or no progress has been made, and communication is already poor within an archipelago technically cut in two (electricity itself cannot circulate between West - 60 Hz - and East - 50 Hz!), and where private operators are not compelled to disclose key indicators as is the case in the US. If even close and friendly neighbors don't trust each other, no wonder the general public show doubt and defiance toward governments and the nuclear industry in general. Former Minister of the Environment KIM Myung-ja stressed the power of activists and the need for transparency.

After the Daichi mess, daily measurements of radioactivity from the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety brought much needed clarity to the debate and today, I welcomed the precious insights from their principal researcher: a technical expert with a sound approach of the human and cultural factors, Dr KIM Sok-chul underlined the differences between security and safety, or between the perception of events, their comprehension, and their prevention. He also revealed that the risk of human errors was maximal with knowledge based behaviors (compared to ruled based or skilled based systems). The same could be said about finance and neural scoring systems but enough scary stories for today.

Actually, this very gloomy period could prove rich in opportunities. Instead of the usual blame game and finger pointing at one rogue state, both Koreas, China, and Japan could humbly seat at the same table with a simple task: we're all in this together, as neighbors and fellow (at least) civil nuclear powers, and we are all facing criticisms for various reasons. Let's share about it, and find ways to be more efficient for the next emergency. To make it simpler, let's keep Russia and the US out of this*****. We won't judge each other, just make sure we handle things better than last year. Maybe, as trust and confidence grows, we'll share more information, but let's start this with modest yet vital objectives.

Since the audience was rather small, everybody could chime in, so I suggested this sort of a NEAR (North East Asia Response) task force. Earlier, Scott SNYDER, who deplored the US failure to prevent vertical proliferation, had proposed a more direct offer to North Korea: you want to launch a satellite? Great: we can do it for you, and safely. Of course they'll refuse (it's all about controlling the propeller, and not for satellites), but bringing the discussions to new planes may work better than - say - Sergey Labrov's basic reset button.

blogules 2012 - initially published on Seoul Village ("NK and nukes: back to the (dolsot curling) stone age?")
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
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* see "Ieodo: I smell a fish", or the controversial construction of a US Navy base at the Southwestern tip of Jeju-do. FYI: in Korea, 'dolsot' dishes are usually served in stone bowls heated directly on charcoal.

** if you're a bit lost with the different characters, see the previous episodes of our NK drama, including "
Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"

*** Jongmyo and Changdeokgung are two beautiful, adjacent, UNESCO listed sites in central Seoul, built by the Joseon dynasty that founded the capital and ruled until the Japanese occupation. Note that neither North Koreans nor South Koreans call the country 'Korea': the former use "Joseon", the latter "Hanguk" (the nation of the Han people).

**** "Revisiting Nuclear Safety and Nuclear Security in North Korea" (Asia Institute Seminar) 2012/03/22:
- Introduction: CHO Cheol-je (Secretary General, GCS International)
- Opening remarks: John E. ENDICOTT (President, Woosong University)
- Panelists: Sharon SQUASSONI (Director, Proliferation Prevention Program, CSIS), Scott A. SNYDER (Senior Fellow for Korea Studies, Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy, Council on Foreign Relations), KIM Sok-chul (Principal Researcher, Head, Radiological Emergency and Security Preparedness Department, KINS - Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety), KIM Myung-ja (Chairwoman, Green 21 Forum / Former Minister of the Environment)
- Moderator: Emanuel PASTREICH (Director, The Asia Institute / Professor, Humanitas College, Kyung Hee University)
On the picture, left to right: Ms. KIM, Mr. KIM, Ms. SQUASSONI, Mr. SNYDER

***** anyway, as Dr KIM pointed out, 20 years from now, 50% of the world's nuclear reactors will be located in the region.

20120214

Deja vu all over again

It never fails: election year in the US, fear feeding frenzy between ultraconservatives from DC, Tel Aviv, and Tehran.

This time, warmongers from all sides share a common target: Barack Obama. And clearly, "44" has more to fear from them than from Romney or Santorum. Among the usual suspects:

- Khamenei and Ahmadinejad clearly remember this guy who, as soon as he took over the White House, adressed the Iranian people for Nowruz*. The message got through, and if the regime crushed the first non-Palestinian uprising in the region, it lost for good whatever was left of its credibility at home**.

- Four years ago, Tel Aviv hawks perfectly seized the Bush-Obama transition, launching an infamous attack on Gaza to secure a crucial vote on February 2009, before putting out the fire with more gazoline***. With Netanyahu back, and all moderates eradicated from the national debate, these guys managed to survive the Arab Spring, deliberately playing it as a threat instead of embracing the opportunity. They are not likely to release the pressure now, and will give all the support the AIPAC needs to keep the upper hand over J Street in the vetting of candidates (beyond the White House, the Congress remains key).

- At home, Obama still has to cope with a minority of dangerous fanatics who badly want a war between Israel and Iran because it's supposed to bring back their Messiah****, but at least they don't control the Oval Office anymore. Of course, the usual Cassandra crew keeps lobbying and forging a case with smoking guns and nuclear mushrooms, but what they want is to secure fat budgets for defence contractors, not necessarily a real war. The people I fear most are the likes of Frank Carlucci, Donald Rumsfeld, or Paul Wolfowitz: amoral thugs who'd do anything to turn the tables, even if it means the humiliation of the United States of the loss of thousands of lives. Preferably when a Carter or an Obama is in office, but the trick also works when it comes to maintaining a friend in power (guess whom).

Okay. When boys start playing with a certain kind of toys and matches, things can go really bad, but they may not need to go all the way. A well timed second dip could sink Barack Obama more efficiently than a torpedo. And if you need a quick fix, ye ole oil crisis easy does it. Not very original, I know, but these guys are more often into creationism than into creativity.

One thing's for sure: we'll never run out of bad guys for this kind of show.


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your
blogules transfusion in French)
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*as well as Israeli leaders (
Beyond the Iranian people, Obama is addressing Israel)
**"
Khamenei's death wish"
***"
Bush's Farewell : Mission Accomplished... as Fundamentalist in Chief", "Netanyahu's al Aqsa intifada"
Iran : who wants war and why

20120207

2012 Presidential Elections in France - It's not the economy, stupid

In 2011, America discovered that helping a young democracy could result in a new theocracy. France tried that too, back in 1776, and as of today, the result is still unclear: the President of the United States pledges allegiance on a Bible, finishing with a vibrant "so help me God", and he would never dare ending a speech without godblessamericaing the audience urbi et orbi, for fear of being considered Un-Amerikan. In this presumably model democracy, all Greenbacks are tagged with the words "in God we trust", Satanists are better considered than atheists because at least they believe in fallen angels, and self-proclaimed 'republicans' would rather be represented by a Christian ayatollah (Santorum) than a moderate Mormon (Romney).

Technically, mixing religion with politics is not compatible with democratic and republican ideals, and I already explained how, in France, putting secularism at the core of the Constitution was meant to secure both democracy and the freedom of religion, and how that fragile balance was undermined as Nicolas Sarkozy followed George W. Bush's dangerous path (see "
France, secularism and burqa : a political issue, not a religious one").

Of course, the French democracy was threatened long before Bush or Sarko came to power. And the 'laicite' and 'egalite' dogmas didn't succeed in a truly multicultural / multicultual society.

Anyway. Back in 2007, I voted Sarkozy because France needed reforms, and only he could deliver. I didn't trust the man, but somehow counted on the vast majority of UMP lawmakers to prevent him from breaking his very formal pledge to respect the French brand of secularism. Of course, Sarkozy implemented only a small part of the necessary reforms, and broke his pledge. He followed Bush's missteps to the tiniest detail, undermining the delicate balance of powers at all levels (executive, legislative, justice, media, religion...).

I can't imagine how low the French economy would have dived had Segolene Royal won the 2007 elections, but we would probably be very glad to maintain double A ratings. Yet unlike most his European counterparts who got the pink slip following the (first) depression, Sarkozy will not be judged by the economy: he simply cannot be re-elected because he betrayed the nation.

His main rival, Francois Hollande, also happens to be an impostor. He even received a boost from Sarkozy, who believed he could play the same trick as in 2007: I have my friends in the media push a weak and hollow candidate (then Hollande companion Segolene Royal), I vampirize the extreme-right with preemptive strikes in the no-man's land between 'law and order' and outright fascism, and I leverage my reputation as a doer.

Hollande is not as weak and hollow as he seems to be: he shares some of the key 'qualities' that helped his model, Francois Mitterrand, reach the top... only not the qualities leftist voters wished he had. And unsurprisingly, the worst enemy of Hollande happens to be Mitterrand's archrival Michel Rocard.

Traditionally, the French have their hearts on their left, but their wallets on their right, so they tend to vote for a center-right candidate. Fourty years ago, Mitterrand, a conservative with an ambiguous Vichy background, highjacked the Socialist party and managed to build an artificial platform where the Communists brought the votes needed to claim the Elysee Palace. Rocard, the reformer who dreamt of transforming a patchworked party into a modern social democrat powerhouse, was sidelined before witnessing, helplessly, his side fail miserably each time it claimed victory (most notably: ill timed, ideology driven 'reforms' in the early eighties or late nineties).

Holland lacks experience in governments, but he already proved his inability and unwillingness to reform the Socialist Party when he was Secretary General. Worse, instead of seizing the momentum when he finally was chosen as the party champion, he opted for yet another impossible consensus. Needless to say, his majority is bound to fail.

So the choice for those 2012 elections is clear: continuity, alternation, or change.
- Continuity means Nicolas Sarkozy and a moral collapse.
- Alternation means Francois Hollande and a deeper decline for French economy and politics.
- Change means either Marine Le Pen and the Front National, a French Revolution for the worse, or Francois Bayrou and the MoDem, a bet on the ability to build a national alliance government with moderate reformers from both sides.

Back in 2007, I hesitated between Bayrou and Sarkozy: the former would have made a good and fair president, but he didn't have the capacity to reform. Now France could be ready for a less partisan approach. Furthermore, a Bayrou victory would necessarily lead to the much needed reforms of both the Parti Socialiste and the UMP. The PS remains one of the few dinosaurs sticking to XIXth century politics, and the UMP needs to discard un-republican (no cap letter, please) elements from its platform.

The worse is that even top members from both leading parties are not enthusiastic about their own champions:
- socialist 'elephants' know Hollande is a fake but the right has never been that weak ahead of a Presidential election (even the Senate sports a socialist 'pink'), and nice positions are up for grabs in the government
- UMP leaders know Sarko doesn't stand a chance, and they already prepare for 2017 and the ineluctable failure of Hollande. Francois Fillon plans to conquer Paris and to capitalize on a strong performance as PM, while Jean-Francois Cope shamelessly carves himself into a Sarkozy mini-me.

Compared to Nicolas Sarkozy's, Barack Obama's reelection bid almost looks like a stroll in the park: both performed relatively well on the economic front, but the POTUS can put much more blame on the opposition, including during his tenure (after the 'sound economy of 2008', last year's budget mess...), and the Republican Party is even more divided, ideologically crippled, inconsistent, and unfit to govern than the French Socialist Party.


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your
blogules transfusion in French)
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20120202

Facebook's Initial Private Offering

Dear Friends and Neighbors,

My Wall and Wall Street are about to become an item: we're all going public, and you'll have to issue a profit warning each time I unlike you nth kitten picture.

Yet Facebook Initial Public Offering remains a non-event: Facebook has been milking our relationship from the beginning, and even with his 11M+ friends, Mark Zuckerberg has never been much of a philanthropist. The question was "when", and the answer is "now".

Now the other question remains: until when?

It doesn't have to come from the next big thing (a 4D, 5G meshroom cloud? the SOPAtriot Act?): remaining at the top happens to be difficult, even for a free, pervasive platform. And even a 800 pound gorilla can get off your back (I recently mentioned the potential Tripodization of Facebook: "Cloud Portability"). Furthermore, money won't do you much good without a vision. Look at Rupert Murdoch, who after losing over half a billion bucks on MySpace, delivers his pearls of conservative wisdom* for free over Twitter. And speaking of doing good: Google started being evil after its IPO...

... Come to think of it: Zuck started as a bad guy.

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!

*if such a thing exists.

20120118

Six Buffoons in Search of a Kingmaker

It takes a looney to know one: Palin just endorsed Gingrich.

And the only sane person in this nuthouse dropped out of the GOP race (not Stephen Colbert, the other one: Jon Huntsman*).

Which leaves us with 6 people: Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Santorum, Perry, and the future Guest Star.

Who knows from which asylum the nominee shall vet his Veep? And how about a third candidate? Say, from the INETP (INdependent Evangelical Tea Partisans), or from Sarah Palin's LGBT party**?

You know what's missing for GOP candidates this year?

Let me rephrase it: you know who's missing for GOP candidates this year?

Rupert Murdoch.

The Great Kingmaker is out of the race. Posing as a bald monk meditating on some distant hill, chain-twitting pearls of wisdom, but cut off from all wordly matters. Maybe a few eavesdroppings now and then - you can't kick the habit that easily.

Anyway, at Fox News, the whole crew seems to be running headless. Even Theocons need a Qibla.

Ideology-wise, surviving members of the nuthouse can only agree on their greatest common divisors:

1) They want to kick Obama out. On the grounds that...
... the guy's a sissy (he won a Nobel Peace Prize, only used two choppers to kill Osama, and didn't even invade Libya to get Qaddafi)
... he's screaming at oil diggers as soon as they spill a bucket or two in the Gulf
... he's a divisive figure: our dear GOP has never been so divided
... he was not even born in the United States of Amerika, and, for the Grand Wizard's sake, the place is called The WHITE House for a reason, duntcha think?

2) They want to Restore Amerikan Honor. In other words...
... restore the great Amerikan values (teaching creationism at school, and waterboarding at West Point),
... restore the sound economy of 2008
... restore budget orthodoxy by removing all taxes and launching an illegal war
... invest less on schools (to prevent the Steve Jobs of tomorrow from happening), and remove all regulations (to create a land of opportunities for the Kenneth Lays, Bernie Ebberses, and Bernie Maddoffs of tomorrow)

Six buffoons in search of a Kingmaker...

blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!

* who, eventually, didn't get a ticket to ride all the way to Florida (see "Grand Old Parting: fix your party before causing more damage to your country")
** see "Mid-Term Elections : Sarah Palin to run in West Dakota"

20120112

Grand Old Parting: fix your party before causing more damage to your country

Can a Republican reach the White House this year? The answer is yes, possibly, but the real question should be: can Republicans actually run the country anywhere except into the wall*?

As I write, South Carolina Evangelists are preferring Mitt Romney to Rick Saint Orum**, and most pundits expect him to become the next GOP nominee. Mitt is probably considering vetting a running mate who doesn't know how to don the white shirt and wag the Book of Mormon, but Newt Gingrich keeps throwing Hail-Mary-passes and Latter-day Slanders, actually helping Romney for the general elections by depicting him as a Massachusetts moderate (the closest thing to a mass murderer in Amerikan lingua). For GOP's sake, even Harry Reid is a mormon.

Rick Perry is a moron, so he can perfectly qualify for the Veep position, in the great Dan Quayle tradition. Twitter darling Ron Paul prefers to bet on the next caucuses (Nevada): obviously, Libertarians cannot trust pure democracy, you know, that process where voters are actually free to think by themselves when they cast a ballot? I wish Ron were running as an Indy come November to ruin the party, but he might be tempted to salvage a few bridges for his son Rand, a mini-me with a sheep wig (Gary Johnson? I said nevermind). Which leaves us with Donald Trump, a Romney impersonator with an even sillier wig, but who does a decent "you're fired".

Mercifully, because Jon Huntsman didn't drown in New Hampshire, we'll enjoy the presence of a reasonable man in the race until at least Florida.

Mitt Romney also seems a reasonable man, but if you're starting to picture him as the next POTUS, here's some food for thought:

.Yes, this guy can win...:
- Okay, he speaks quite good French, but he is likeable enough (though not as much as Hillary, with whom I bet - four years ago - that Obama would replace Biden for his 2012 run), and he is a moderate by nowadays GOP standards (which doesn't mean anything, but some independent voters might get fooled, and even Reaganians could fall for this caricature character from a 1980s sitcom). But Romney won't be allowed to run without making unacceptable compromize, and without a dangerous lunatic one heartbeat away from nominating the next Supreme Justice.

... but no, neither Romney nor any other Republican candidate should become President...:
- We're not just talking about a person but about a party. And right now, the Republican party is not fit for power. Simple as that. This divided nation cannot afford a divided party that hasn't achieved anything positive over the past twenty years, and officially imploded eight years ago***. If they really love their country and their party, Republicans must first reform the GOP to transform it into a sustainable platform, fit to govern the nation. Even the Democrats did it twenty years ago by getting rid of their most caricatural parts, and by trading ideology for pragmatism. Of course, Reps still manage to win now and then (and not always by cheating in Florida), but look how they fail miserably when they do. And the only time they came up with a consistent vision, it was
the ultimate negation of republican and democratic values. You want more impostures? Guess who turned record surplusses into record deficits, privatizing gains and socializing losses? And guess who saved American capitalism?

... and yes, Obama is still the man:
- Yes he could have performed better in many ways at home and abroad, but the things he did wrong were the things he did the conservative way, for instance getting along with corporate abuses or Israel excesses. At home, Obama managed historic reforms before the Reps shook the House. Yes, the economy hasn't recovered yet, but he has already cleaned an impressive part of the incommensurable mess they caused, and even until now they keep provoking further damage (last year's surreal budget drama exposed if needed the GOP's inability to govern). Yes, Guantanamo is not closed yet, and yes, Obama couldn't prevent the implosion of Iraq borne by the 2003 invasion, but he proved a better and smarter Commander in Chief by getting Bin Laden and freeing Libya with limited means. Yes Iran remains a danger, but the regime has lost the ideological battle home and Obama was inspirational for a change that later rocked the region.

Yes, he can.

But for that, he needs four more years, and a majority.

Since America is a free country, voters can decide that they preferred the way the country was run before Obama (reminder: the Bush-Cheney administration destroyed more value and more values than any other in American history), and that the whole country should be run like the House they voted for in 2006 (a disgrace mocked all over the world). A no-brainer, I tellya.

Right before the 2010 midterm elections I asked that simple question: "
Can America really afford a Republican Second Dip?".

I have the bad habit of repeating myself, but so does History.


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your
blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!

*without caps: forget about that dream image of a bull on Wall Street.
**For the few retards who didn't catch his subtle marketing positioning, and the surprisingly many retards who embraced it, Rick Santorum wrote down a few words below his name on his campaign billboards: Faith, Family, and Freedom. In other words: Theocons, Paleocons, and Anticons* (for that latest flavor, see "
Grand Old Parting - enter the anticons").
*** see "
GOP: time to split"








20120109

Join blogules on Facebook

For their IXth Season, and to celebrate the mother of all election years (the US, France, Korea - the South at least -, China, Americanidolistan... everybody votes in 2012), blogules just launched their official Facebook pages.

That's pageS with an S because as you know, blogules exist in French and pseudo-English versions. And regardless of who lands where, I badly needed a specific platform for each language, something I can't afford on Twitter - even if it's free - since, mercifully, there's only one me (@stephanemot).

So welcome to the new pages, come get your blogules fix and spill your own comments:



And while I'm at it, you are of course invited to like my other Facebook pages:

So many pages for such inept content... but at least we're not falling trees for these.


blogules 2012
Since 2003, nonsensical posts about noncritical issues in nonenglish (get your blogules transfusion in French)
NEW: join blogules on Facebook!!!
(also in French!)

20111219

KIM Jong-il: four weddings and a funeral

So as expected, KIM Jong-il died. A bit early to secure the transition with KIM Jong-un, who might be tempted to show his skills to those who doubt he's got whatever that is North Korean leaders are supposed to have.

Physically, Junior already used plastic surgery to improve his Kimilsungist looks, let's hope he won't try to sport his dad's weirdo hairdo now.

Character-wise, Jong-un is rumored to be more ill-tempered than his brothers Jong-nam and Jong-chol, respectively a Disneyland and an Eric Clapton fan. But compared to the Late Dear Leader, he's more permeated with such capitalist perversions as burgers. And it starts showing, particularly in a country where the population is maintained in a constant state of starvation.

As far as leadership is concerned, Jong-un didn't quite pass the cut last year: the young lad has been credited with the latest attack on South Korean soil but doesn't seem much of an expert, judging by the way he uses binoculars...

So we'll follow KIM Jong-il's funerals (after four weddings, Hugh can grant him that**). And eminent Pyeongyangologists will watch closely: who will keep a seat when the music stops? Isn't CHANG Sung-taek a trifle too old for musical chairs? Will Beijing-friendly people get promoted in the army*?

In South Korea, a North Korean Spring or Winter would have consequences for the 2012 elections: more tensions could become a problem for AHN Cheol-soo (commander in chief beyond cyberwars?), and boost conservatives, but not necessarily PARK Geun-hye (would Koreans vote for a woman in times of crisis, and one used to operating only behind the scenes at that?).

By the way. This week-end, LEE Myung-bak visited Japan, and devoted the bulk of his talks with Yoshihiko Noda to the issue of Japanese military sexual slavery, following Wednesday's successful demonstration (see "
One Thousand Wednesdays"). But if he's consistent, the President must also reactivate the Truth and Reconciliation Commission: every country must face its own past, particularly when it expects the same from its neighbors.


blogules 2011
(originally on Seoul Village: "KIM Jong-il passes. To KIM Jong-un. Presumably.")
NEW : follow Seoul Village on
Facebook and Twitter

*... and the invisible 'hanschluss' continue? see "
China-North Korea : the Great Hanschluss still the base case scenario", and previous posts about NK

** BTW 'Four weddings and a funeral' got released in 1994, the same year KIM Il-sung died.

---
20111230 update: corrected the title (which I changed while editing). Obviously, I never quite got used to Kim Jong-il. And KJI sounds more than ever like a name from the past.

20111215

1,000th week of shame for Japan

The young girl is sitting on a chair, a bird on her left shoulder. Her sad eyes seek an answer from the building across the street, to no avail. This time again, the Japanese Embassy remains silent. Or rather, it keeps protesting against the statue of the girl recently erected across the street as a reminder: the Korean victims of sexual slavery are still expecting justice and official apologies from the Japanese Government.

Today, the young girl was surrounded by a couple of old friends: a few surviving 'comfort women' who are now in their 80s or 90s. They live in the House of Sharing, a residence and museum in Gyeonggi-do, and come every Wednesday to protest. Not against the statue, but with it, and for justice.

Today, these halmoni were surrounded by hundreds of friends: longtime activists and supporters of the cause, or simple citizens of the World from all ages, all origins, all beliefs.

Today, December 14, 2011, marked the 1,000th Wednesday of protest since January 8, 1992, and masses met in front of the Embassy in Junghak-dong. Wiping away their tears and facing again the camera: they've overcome shame for 20 years, and since then more than ever, the shame is on Japanese leaders.




This is not about nationalism, and this is certainly not about Korea vs Japan, but about Japan vs Justice, and about Japan vs its own future. Crimes were committed and victims simply expect justice*. Japan must face history in order to face the future, and its leaders cannot hide the truth to Japanese citizens any longer.

I've said the same thing
about other issues: this is also about saving Japan. And if I joined the protesters, it's also because I love Japan and because I can't accept to see a minority of die hard ultra-conservatives setting a corrupt agenda and betraying the Japanese people.

And to Korean ultra-nationalists who try to hijack this case for their own corrupt agenda, I say: clean your own mess first, and restore the Truth and Reconciliation Commission***.


Help the victims and support the cause:

House of Sharing / Nanum : houseofsharing.org / nanum.org
Join the Facebook group
NB (reminder): until Friday, the House of Sharing's International Outreach Team is organizing near Hongdae a multi-media art exhibition dealing with issues of sexual slavery, human trafficking, and violence and oppression against women, and including film projections, works from halmonies...*


blogules 2011 (initially published on Seoul Village: "One Thousand Wednesdays")

* Justice means:
1. That the Japanese government admits the compulsory drafting of Korean women as Military Sexual Slavery by Japan.
2. That an official apology will be made for this.
3. That all the atrocities will be fully disclosed.
4. That a Memorial will be built for the victims.
5. That the survivors or their bereaved families will be compensated
6. That the facts and truth about Military Sexual Slavery by Japan will be taught in Japanese history classes so that such inhumanities are not repeated.
7. Punish the war criminals.

** until Friday at Cafe Anthracite (Hapjeong-dong 357-6, Mapo-gu, Seoul, South Korea, near Sangsu station)

*** see previous episodes, including "TRCK : families of victims demand essential follow-up", "TRCK lost in translation or lost in transition ?", "Achievements and Tasks of TRCK's Activities", "Truth and Reconciliation : which model for Korea ?"

20111211

Happy New Year 2013

It's that time of the year and as usual*, I simply can't wish you a happy new year considering what's going to happen in 2012:

January 2012: after David Cameron and Nick Clegg fail to reach an agreement on the 2011-2012 bonuses for City bankers, the Poundzone implodes.

February 2012: Queen Elizabeth II mentions the possibility that she might step down before the end of her second 60-year mandate. Charles is, as always, all ears.

March 2012: Dmitri Medvedev announces the suicide of his Prime Minister: Vladimir Putin swallowed two gallons of radioactive vodka and shot himself nine times in the head. Putin nonetheless appears the next day, sporting a ten feet long green beard: "now call me Ras instead of Vlad".

April 2012: South Koreans disagree on how to handle their own security after the dissolution of the Combined Forces Command. The country splits into Southeast Korea and Southwest Korea, with Dokdo as the new neutral capital.

May 2012: Sarkozy declares himself winner of the Presidential Elections with a score of 98%, has the police shoot at protesters, and rebrands himself Nicolas The First just to be called "His Highness".

June 2012: in Vietnam, the Arab Spring rolls.

July 2012: for budgetary reasons, Greece, Spain, and Ireland compete under the same banner at the London Olympics: the Commonpoverty.

August 2012: ahead of the 18th Party Congress, China launches its latest aircraft carrier and the Occupy Singapore Strait movement.

September 2012: for the first time in Burma, a woman becomes Head of State. Hillary nominates Bill as commander in chief with just this piece of advice: "don't bask your tail".

October 2012: the Nobel Prize in Literature goes to Ben Bernanke for his bestseller, the $100 banknote (789,566,122,708,110 copies issued in one month).

November 2012: Herman Cain visits the White House to decide on which floor to install the Second and Third Ladies.

December 2012: on 2012/12/12, at 20:12:12, Pakistanese PM downloads the Doom app on his smartphone.

blogules 2011

* see "
Happy New Year 2010" (Jan 2009), "Happy New Year 2011" (Dec 2009), "Happy New Year 2012" (Dec 2010)... and in French: "Bonne Année 2009" (Jan 2008), "Bonne Année 2010" (Dec 2008), "Bonne Année 2011" (Dec 2009), Bonne Année 2012 (Dec 2010).
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