20070328

Discussion - 3 challenges for Korea

(my answer to a question regarding the critical challenges Korea will face in the 10 years to come)

I were to select 3 challenges, I would pick :
- one that policies can solve but are addressing counterproductively nowadays (the Brain Drain / Capital Drain),
- another one that policies are having a difficult time tackling (China and regional competitivity), and
- yet another one, utterly unpredictable (North Korea).
The fourth challenge (Demographics) could partly find, in the previous 3, solutions more sustainable than today's massive imports of South East Asian wives for the rural poor.

The most vital challenge is NK. I'm not worrying about nukes but about a brutal social / political / economical collapse, and I keep warning my Korean friends about what I call a "Albania Scenario" : they only benchmark with Germany's reunification, but they should also consider post-Hoxja's Albania, the only case vaguely similar to Kim Il-seung / Kim Jong-il's Xanadu (a country run like a sect, a people unable to live in a democracy, nor to survive in a free market).
=> Worst case scenario : a third Bush-Cheney term, with Shinzo Abe's neofascist clique to wrap it up.
=> Best case scenario : Beijing manages to coerce Pyongyang into tougher reforms (at last)


The Brain Drain / Capital Drain issue could prove more critical than it seems - the golden youth of the country is switching continents and it starts showing.
=> Worst case scenario : Korea's "undeclared emigrants" (the name I give to those who have a home and spend quite a lot in Korea but have other homes, passports and niceties overseas) reduce dramatically the time and budget they devote to their country (ie after the burst of the real estate bubble). Korea is left with a few wealthy people, an impoverished middle class and an ever increasing poverty. Even top chaebols could change nationalities (individuals as well as companies).
=> Best case scenario : Seoul decides to leverage on its diaspora (ie a "coming out / coming home" - more transparency vs less taxes and a lighter military service) to strengthen its links with the US, the Middle East and even Europe. Korea must be loved by its own people again. It must also become the herald of cultural diversity in Asia far beyond the shameful exploitation of the international fad for its disposable celebs.

Regional competitivity remains a priority for this administration, but if Korea wants to become a hub, it will need much more focus (ie too much intranational competitivity and confusion). Especially with the return of ultranationalists in Japan and a much fiercer competition from China, whose revisionists have other ideas in mind : beyond the rewriting of Koguryo history, Beijing intends to create a new regional capital of Korea in China !
=> The system of regional clusters and the strengthening of partnerships with Europe could pay.

Gloomy, but Korea's main asset remains its people. That's one of the reasons why it shouldn't risk losing its most promising talents to the rest of Asia or to the US. Also : Korea should stop selling its soul for short term profits, exports and investments : that would be the best way to become a suburb of Shanghai.

20070327

Monica Goodling's silence of the lambs - Red blogule to the State of Terror

John M. Dowd is a lawyer. I'm not sure he's doing his best to help his client*, Monica Goodling, the Justice Department’s White House liaison who, following his advice, refuses to testify before the Senate panel about her boss, Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales.
Because, as we saw before**, Dubya's Chief Torture Officer is being grilled on the removal of US attorneys.
According to Dowd, Goodling is afraid of being treated as a witness in a criminal inquiry.
According to me, she is s..t scared of being treated as yet another disposable White House scapegoat.
She knows what this mob is capable of. She knows the dark side of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And that Monica knows she may leave the place with stains on her dress, but of the bloody kind. Courtesy the President of the United States.

* I don't know who is the actual client there, but I've got an idea about who will pay in the end...
** see "George Pontius Pilate Bush lets Gonzales face justice - Red blogule to Our Dear Compassionate Leader" (20070315)

20070315

"Kurdistan, the other Iraq"... or "Kurdistan, the other other Vietnam" ?

Iraq's Kurdistan region opened, through the Kurdistan Development Corporation, a lobbying office in Washington, DC*. Headed by Qubad al-Talabani, son of Jalal Talabani, the President of Iraq as a whole (a black hole some may say), this unit officially promotes investments and tourism in the region. Autonomy and independance could be part of the discussions.

I do feel some sympathy for Kurds in general and I do wish them a peaceful future. Yet, I'm not so sure this is the way everybody wants it and even if Talabani were honest, other players would join the lobbying frenzy.

I remember the intense Iraqi lobbying between the two wars. Who could forget Ahmed Chalabi and his Iraqi National Congress ? Among the different approaches for the liberation of Iraq, US theocons deliberately favored the factions that were bound to cause maximum damage. The parting of Iraq and the strengthening of fundamentalists across the region (especially and Iran and Israel) was not only expected but planned from the start.

If I were a US fundamentalist, I surely wouldn't want a democratic and peaceful Kurdistan to emerge in the dead middle of my playground.

A failed proof of concept Kurdistan could not only strengthen radicals in Iran but also infuriate and exacerbate fundamentalists in Turkey. To the contrary, I would seize the opportunity to bring chaos in this relatively protected part of the country, and to exacerbate radicalism everywhere. I would especially infuriate Turkish nationalists and fundamentalists, because as anybody can see these days, the radicalization of Turkey is key to the revival of Christian fundamentalism in Europe.

Don't mistake this initiative as an attempt to put a lock on Kirkuk oil fields : the aim of the game is to get rid of secularism in Turkey.



* see CMD's "The "Other Iraq" Opens a DC Lobbying Office" (20070302)

George Pontius Pilate Bush lets Gonzales face justice - Red blogule to Our Dear Compassionate Leader

"Al has got work to do up there".
Ecce homo. I give you Alberto Gonzales, and it's up to the people to judge, it's up to him to explain why he dismissed some nosy attorneys, it's up to my fuse to explain why he short circuited the Congress.
George W. Bush washes his hands and I see mud on them : his justice promotes scientific revisionism and medieval fundamentalism, attacks the moderates and pacifists, protects Special Interest Groups.
George W. Bush washes his hands and I see blood on them : his justice promotes torture and protects the gunslingers.
George W. Bush pretends to be compassionate and to stand for values ? He should be remembered as the immoral coward who betrayed America.

Go get Alberto Gonzales, the mastermind of this deviant justice, but don't forget to get the man who ordered this kind of plans*.
Go get Alberto Gonzales, the mastermind of Abu Ghraib, but don't forget to impeach his master.



* "plans", "intelligent design", "The Architect"... building a fundamentalist utopia looks demanding on the gray cells side for the promoters, but the aim of the game remains the negation of intelligence for all others.

20070312

Halliburton and the 40 thieves (continued) - Dubai, we have a problem

Exeunt the Texan Oilers, welcome to the Emirate Drillers. Halliburton decides to move its franchise from Houston to Dubai, where CEO David J. Lesar will fell at home (show off new rich, bad taste contest and massive environmental plundering). The politically and environmentally correct TXU deal was just a farewell gift before the camel ride.
Like the KBR spin off. A prerequisite for the move since US military and national security is involved. The Bush administration* learned something from the DP World incident**.

Definitely, this administration can take lessons and good decisions. But only when it comes to this company***.




* Or should I say the Cheney administration ? As Jay Leno put it after the failed attack on the Veep in Afghanistan ("Red blogule to intel kept inside - Cheney caused 23 more deaths" - 20070303), the US were lucky : they could be ruled by George W. Bush now.
** "Red blogule to the DP World - P&O deal's Architects and winners" (20060224)

*** the priority of rescuers after Kathrina crushed the South (see my previous "Red blogule to Halliburton and the 40 thieves" - 20050911)

20070307

There is a cloud over the Vice President - Red blogule to criminal liars

As prosecutor Patrick J. Fitzgerald put it, “There is a cloud over the vice president".
A cloud all right. I can even read the tags : abuse of power, treason, lies, lies, lies.
I. Lewis Libby Jr, aka Scooter Libby, lied.
The Vice President lied.
The President lied.
Thousands of US troups and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians died.
More are dying everyday than in the 7/7 London bombings.
Terrorists, absent from Iraq before the US invasion, are now learning their skills and kills in this huge training camp. Abductions, beheadings, chemical attacks... you name it. Coming soon to a theatre near you.
As Scott Reed put it, "The trial has been death by 1,000 cuts for Cheney".

But not for this guy, I'm afraid : from the Nam to Bagram*, this Washington Dodger has a thing for avoiding combat and letting other people catch the bullets.


* see "
Red blogule to intel kept inside - Cheney caused 23 more deaths" (20070301)

20070303

The end of financial safe havens - Red blogule to speculation

Shanghai sneezed, Tokyo coughed, the whole world panicked... but avian flu had nothing to do with it. According to Ben Bernanke, Chief Futurologist Officer at the Fed, this week's small bump on the eternal path of glory of the World's greatest stock exchanges doesn't mean the big naughty R will strike anytime soon.
Yet it shows how nervous investors are, globally. There is a lot of greedy money everywhere and not only from your usual suspects (the so called developped countries) : everybody is well informed and almost free to invest almost anywhere anytime. Speculation remains good business but demands better nerves than ever. Hedge funds were the first to collapse under their own weight and now, even traditional players struggle. The money is there, growth is there too, but the place is so crowded with both experts and beginners that nothing is guaranteed.
There is no such thing as a financial safe haven anymore, and this greedy money will somehow have to focus on tasks more useful for a larger community. No wonder some people have been rediscovering The Capital lately. But with a fresher look.

I like to compare Karl Marx with Louis Pasteur : both were great observers and could deliver pertinent diagnosis, but Carlito couldn't go all the way of experimentation and would often wander too far along the path of interpretation, coming back with irrelevant prescriptions and leaving to other doctors the honor of delivering counterproductive treatments.
I know this is the kind of excuses used in the past by the Supreme Soviet or the CPC (Communist Party of China), but I do think the time has come for the cast of pure speculators to feel the heat and join the Hall of Shame : you have a right to sell weapons, tobacco, alcohol, casino chips, and to make a lot of dough with it, but don't expect to be respected for that.

20070301

Red blogule to intel kept inside - Cheney caused 23 more deaths

The US knew suicide bombers were at large in the Bagram area. Yet, they did nothing to prevent the attack or at least warn their closest partners nearby when Dick Cheney paid a costly visit to this base in Afghanistan : 23 people died including a Korean translator who happened to pass by.
Poor score for a mass murderer who doesn't even know how to shoot by himself* : Lobby Dick already forged the case that caused the death of thousands of US soldiers and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.

Darth Vader enjoys using the Dark Side of the Force, governing from a hidden spot with his powerful reach... but unlike this excuse for a VP, Anakin Skywalker is not a coward.

Impeach him you should.


* see "White blogule to Dick Cheney - Shooting Star vs silver star" (20060214)

20070223

Di's is cast - When Harry met sandy

Prince Harry wants to fight. The boy doesn't want to end up like his dad, remembered as a ugly clumsy veggie wearing the kilt, sipping tea and playing polo. The boy loves the uniform. Any kind of uniform, as we previously noticed*.

"Wales" is allowed to join Iraq the day Tony Blair announces his withdrawal plan for the troops. As a clear message to the British Army : see, we are not gonna let you down - and with such a soft target, we sure are not gonna let your ennemies let you down either.

Princess Diana cared for the victims of landmines, his son decides to earn a different kind of respect in a sick shooting game, kicking some ass or camel in the desert.

Tu quoque, mi fili... Di's is cast.


* remember "
When Harry met nazis" (20050116) ?

20070216

Red blogule to French oldcons, neocons and cons in general

The French are switching from a Left / Right to a Conservative / Progressive political rift. The defining moment was the vote for the European Constitution, with a significant collateral damage : the end of the Socialist Party (PS) as we've known it since Francois Mitterrand claimed it a couple of decades ago.
Reformers from the PS have more in common with reformers from the UMP than with their fellow party members stuck somewhere in the middle of the XIXth Century. Sarkozy and fellow reformers have successfuly sidelined traditional conservatives within their own ranks - a minority of harmless old farts snoring all day long at the Senate.
I'm sure the French economy would perform well with Nicolas Sarkozy, but I'm rather scared by his attacks on secular legislations and his ability to fuel radicalism and fundamentalism. I don't quite like the idea of this man enjoying the support of both US and Israeli fundamentalists and neocons, and even the presence of a Karl Rove wannabe on his side, Brice Hortefeux.
I'd rather see a more moderate kind of reformer rule the country. Francois Bayrou (UDF) has a clear opening since Dominique Strauss-Kahn lost the PS primaries vs Segolene Royal. Should he reach the second round of these elections, he would crush Royal and could even be a problem for Sarkozy (if socialist voters prefer barring Sarko to abstention).

Segolene Royal is not a moderate reformer. She is neither conservative nor reformist. She is an ambitious person used to follow charismatic leaders and has some trouble turning into a charismatic leader radiating with her own views. She keeps putting all opinions at the same level and refusing to take any clear position. As expected and despite a massive victory in the socialist primaries (60%), Royal proved unable to get full support from her own party. A couple of days ago, a group of VIMs from the left (Very Important Women) were considering a petition to call for her withdrawal from the presidential race - just to make sure this wouldn't be interpreted as yet another proof of France's reactionnary machismo (anytime Royal is under attack, she bites with the issue back).
Bayrou may be closing the gap, Royal is still far ahead of the centrist candidate and she still has a large and motivated core of supporters. But she flunked last week-end's exam, introducing a program that didn't really prove disruptive... but for the national budget. A copycat of Mitterrand's 1981 program, which led that man to the top job but the country to the bottom : a massive budget deficit, a big financial crisis and a total loss of international competitivity at a critical moment. Eric Besson, the man in charge of the financial side of Royal program, timely decided to quit after a clash with Francois Holland, secretary general of the PS and Sego's longtime compagnon.
Right now, Sarkozy enjoys a comfortable lead in the polls. But he has also been trapped into a lousy campaign where everybody promises everything to everyone. Even Bayrou, the apostle of budget orthodoxy, claims a 20 billion Euros program.

Ten years ago, France was ahead of Germany in its reforms. But the PM, Alain Juppe, went too far too quick, and Chirac (not so wisely advised by Villepin) decided to dissolve the assembly. The PS won the 1997 elections and Lionel Jospin surfed on the internet bubble years to post nice growth rates, but also to reform the country the wrong way (more spendings and the mother of all mistakes ; the 35-hour Week). Chirac won again in 2002 but limited new reforms to cautious steps when his neighbor Gerhard Schroeder would take all the risks. Schroeder lost to Merkel but Germany is now much fitter than France to face future challenges.
Here's the new deal for France : an economic breakdown with Segolene Royal, a political gamble with Nicolas Sarkozy. Should Francois Bayrou win next May, he would have the opportunity to form a new party with socialist and UMP moderate reformers. Instead of going down by turning right or left, France must try to go and grow up.

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