20070518

White blogule to USA 2016

(answer to the question "Where do you see the United States in the year 2016 ?")

The USA remain a key player but other entities have about the same political and economical power. Furthermore, the national political landscape has deeply changed, and like in Israel, there are now at least three major forces :

- one is conservative and nationalist / mainland (dubbed "Amerikan SUV" / American SUrge and Victory),

- another one more liberal and international ("R&D" / Reps & Dems), and

- yet another one clearly religious (the "POGO" / Party Of God Omniscient).

But many politicians don't feel like belonging to a specific party ; rather to several spheres depending on the issues... not to mention ethnies. The key question nowadays is shall we keep the system of primaries and indirect presidential elections ?

For November, the polls give a clear edge to George Bush III (that's Prescott, son of Jeb), supported by SUV and POGO. Clinton is out of the race (R&D preferred O'Bama to Chelsea).

20070515

Dismission Accomplished - Red blogule to the other peanut president

LBJ's quagmire, Nixon's scandals, Carter's hostages, not to mention Dubya's own trophies (lies, propaganda, fundamentalism, revisionism, torture...)... This President seems ripe for impeachment, and it's up to the Republicans to get rid of this bunch of Hall of Shamers (Cheney, Rove, Wolfie...). For good, and for the good of this country.
Besides, it would be the only way out of Iraq. And in the 2008 race. The Dems will keep shooting till someone waves a white flag : "why should I catch a bullet ? I should be shooting the darn lame duck along with you instead".
It would be an act of repentance from America too. I made a mistake in 2003, and then I made an even bigger mistake in November 2004. Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. Here's his head, shall I wrap it up ?
Here is the man. Ecce homo. George Walker Bush eventually meeting the same fate as his favorite philosopher. Atoning not for the sins of mankind but for the sins of one unkind man.

20070507

Sarko wins - White blogule to reforms

France eventually said yes to something. After saying no to extreme right in 2002 and no to Europe in 2005, the country decided to embrace reforms. In order to implement his ambitious program, Nicolas Sarkozy must now get a clear majority at the National Assembly. And these legislative elections will be a very interesting moment in French politics.
As early as next thursday, Francois Bayrou will know whether his new Democratic Movement can keep the bulk of today's UDF MPs, who supported Sarkozy and refused to join the opposition.
As early as yesterday night, a surrealistic replay of the PS primaries started. Segolene Royal, as expected, refused to admit her own failure and the failure of ideological indecisiveness, claimed the leadership of the "anything but Sarko" movement. Laurent Fabius, as expected, denounced her solo campaign and called for unity with the left of the left. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, as expected, denounced the candidate's hollowness and the party's refusal to reform itself, to clarify its vision and ideology, calling for a reform towards a modern social democracy.
As early as yesterday night too, extreme left revolutionary groups tested the authorities, provoking minor episodes of violence in some major cities. Olivier Besancenot intends to take the street and bar all reforms.

As early as yesterday afternoon, Jean-Marie Le Pen died politically. Sarkozy shot him badly before the first round, leading a great chunk of his voters back to the republic, and the old extremist leader shot himself before the second round, calling his voters for a massive abstention but witnessing the highest turnout in recent history.
Meanwhile, Sarko rises above the snake nest and takes a few days off to abandon his candidate's skin. He already switched to a presidential posture in a rather brilliant speech. He talked to the world (to the notable exceptions of the Middle East and Asia) and mentioned respect. I'll keep an eye on his way of respecting the separation of powers (executive-legislative, executive-judicial, executive-media, temporal-intemporal...).

20070504

Masks off - red blogule to Segolene Royal's imposture

Let us consider my fellow French citizens as junkies, eager to give up their illusions but still hooked to them and asking candidates for yet another fix...
Segolene Royal comes to them and tells them : "I'm listening to what you say. I will give you a dose even bigger than the one you're dreaming of. You will feel good today and tomorrow will look brighter - actually, I'm sure things will get better for you.
Nicolas Sarkozy tells the French : "I'm really listening to what you say, and I understand that what you mean is not give me more but get me out of here. I won't push you down any further, I will help you up.
The sales pitch is less sexy but a little bit more responsible.

As you noticed earlier in this excuse for a blog, I don't precisely like Mr Sarkozy. But I know he is the only one who can put the country back on track. And I know he is now under the strict control and scrutiny of the UMP's centrist majority, the very people who will actually do the job with him, but people who won't stay with him if he happens to deviate from the healthy line (ie Sarko confirmed several times he won't touch to France's secularism).

I seriously considered voting for Bayrou one year ago. Back then, I was sure he had a chance, the same way I knew back in 1996 Blair could win the following year, to the great surprise of my British friends. But the man proved once again to be a disapointment ; a good man but a loner, not a leader. His surrealistic "debate" with Royal confirmed my worries : this man of dialogue drowned in Sego's autistic monologue.

But last Tuesday, Royal eventually met someone who exposed her sideral vacuity. I often compare her to Dubya : both are impostors and fake compassionate conservatists, but at least Bush is a good actor and he knows both the role he has to play and the man he truly is. Sego doesn't even know who nor what she is. She is actually running away from this confrontation and discovered the way of persuasing herself she exists in a selfpersuasive mantra technique : she routinely picks up things that sound nice everywhere and adds them to her speech, which grows into something as huge as implausible and inconsistent, and when someone says a trifle loud something looks a trifle too much she withdraws it. No one stopped her during the Socialist Party's primaries, no one stopped her during the campaign, and someone eventually said "get real", someone eventually imposed her first actual debate.
Even then, Sego refused any contradiction (no, not true, you're lying), she denied the right to answer (you don't have the right to answer, no). But Sarko kept focusing on the content while Sego sticked to the appearence, putting all her weight in one attack carefully planed. Sarko already knew Sego would attack because she warned her staff before. The question was when. She knew Le Petit Nicolas would raise the issue of the disabled children (he actually delivered the very same words a couple of days earlier in a prime time interview), and her strategy was to strike at this precise moment. She did a pretty good job in pretending to choke on what he said as if it were the first time she heard it, and she convinced many observers of her courage and sincerity. But she also lost many sympathisers who considered her as... sympathetic (66% of voters before the debate, 53% after - Opinionway poll). And women are not fooled : they don't like her and prefer to vote for Sarko (49% vs 38% - TNS Sofres barometer).
Masks are off and I do hope French citizens will vote with more discernment in 2007 than US citizens in 2004.



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